Carlson or Karlsson

[Brawndo]

Just curious, if Garth Snow calls and offers picks 11 and 12 as part of a package for ROR what is your response?

[TheAud]

Just curious, if Garth Snow calls and offers picks 11 and 12 as part of a package for ROR what is your response?

I'm not really in favor of trading ROR but from an asset perspective this would be a good deal. But I don't like trading away one of the team's best players for futures, even if they are decent picks. 

So I'd say it depends on other moves that take place at approximately the same time. For example if ROR for the two picks came with Guhle and Nylander being dealt for, say, Max Pacioretty, I'm in. 

[sweetlou]

Would you trade ROR and Lehner to NY Islanders for Kiefer Bellows, #12 pick, and Brock Nelson??

[bobs0108]

Would you trade ROR and Lehner to NY Islanders for Kiefer Bellows, #12 pick, and Brock Nelson??

I would take that trade but I don’t think NYI would

[Rasmus_]

I don't know about that one. We're going to have $18 million in cap space this year to work with. Even if you use, say, 7.5 of that on Carlson, that's a lot of money left over. We're getting a couple defensemen on ELCs to fill roster space, plus Mittelstadt and I'm sure at least a couple of the Rochester kids as depth pieces among forwards. Johnson and Lehner took up $6.5 million this year...next year it'll be Ullmark and somebody else for probably half that. Then next year we have Moulson and Pominville off the books. It's definitely doable, I think.

 

Like Flagg, I think it's an interesting discussion on which piece to move out. Realistically, I think we could lure Carlson here with money; I don't think the same could be said for Tavares.

 

7.5 on Carlson, then what 4-5 on Reinhart, that takes up a bit of the 18M you're talking about.  Now there could be more cap if / when Moulson, Bogosian, Pominville are looked at possibly as collateral buyout candidates.  I still cannot see justifying paying all of that on a roster that wasn't even a sniff at the wild card round past November 15th.  This team isn't ready to jump that far, that fast.  There are fundamental flaws involved in the forward group, goalie play, defensive scheme and multiple other fronts.  The coach may not even be the right fit.  I would say if we were closer to 8 than we were 14 in the Eastern conference that Carlson makes a lot of sense.  

Edited April 30, 2018 by TheCerebral1

[Marions Piazza]

According to Eklund its "e4" that the Sabres are going to "back up the brinks truck" for Carlson.  Of course he said that about Tavares too, I guess he believes the Sabres will be exempt from the salary cap next year.

[WildCard]

According to Eklund its "e4" that the Sabres are going to "back up the brinks truck" for Carlson.  Of course he said that about Tavares too, I guess he believes the Sabres will be exempt from the salary cap next year.

Botterill has been very firm in saying that you don't build teams through FA. He's also a GM on a team inheriting awful contracts from that strategy. I really don't think he is going to be going after Carlsson at all

[WildCard]

So Carlson shoots right. That would mean Buffalo has:

Risto, Dahlin, Bogo, Nelson and now Carlson all on the right side. I don't see Carlson coming to a team with Dahlin and Risto to play 3rd line D at 7.5mil. 

But Dahlin shoots left. Why is he on the right side?

[WildCard]

Because when he brings the puck off the wall he is in a shooting position and can shield the puck. It is also where he played for Frolunda and the Swedish National Team. 

Yeah, I get the offensive aspect of it, but isn't that pretty uncommon for a player to do that? It's so much easier playing catch with your fellow d-partner, and making outlet passes, if you're on your natural side

[Randall Flagg]

Eklund? Phew, I was worried we might spend an unreasonable amount on Carlson.

That said,

 

So Carlson shoots right. That would mean Buffalo has:

Risto, Dahlin, Bogo, Nelson and now Carlson all on the right side. I don't see Carlson coming to a team with Dahlin and Risto to play 3rd line D at 7.5mil. 

Why would Carlson play 3rd line D behind Risto and a rookie whose played on small ice like 10 times ever? He had twenty seven more points than Risto did, and is far better at defense. Look at this chart of zone entry allowance and percentage of exits with possession:

Edited May 1, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[WildCard]

Fine you guys want to sign Carlson go for it. But it is a major mistake. 

 

Dahlin is going to be the 3rd line rookie for maybe the first year. 

I don't want to sign him for what he'll cost. And again, I really don't think we will

[Randall Flagg]

Fine you guys want to sign Carlson go for it. But it is a major mistake. 

 

Dahlin is going to be the 3rd line rookie for maybe the first year. 

What about being relieved that Eklund says we'll sign Carlson because then I know it's not going to happen says that I want to sign Carlson? What about WC arguing about handedness in the NHL suggests he wants Carlson? What about WC saying Botterill isn't going to sign Carlson says he wants Carlson?

 

I just took issue with the claim that a 68 point defenseman that posts several elite metrics that are critical to modern defenseman would be behind a rookie, even a stud rookie, and a pp QB with terrible shot suppression and possession numbers.

[WildCard]

What about being relieved that Eklund says we'll sign Carlson because then I know it's not going to happen says that I want to sign Carlson? What about WC arguing about handedness in the NHL suggests he wants Carlson? What about WC saying Botterill isn't going to sign Carlson says he wants Carlson?

 

I just took issue with the claim that a 68 point defenseman that posts several elite metrics that are critical to modern defenseman would be behind a rookie, even a stud rookie, and a pp QB with terrible shot suppression and possession numbers.

I agree with all of this

 

That's your issue? Fine he will be 2nd line. I am not paying my 2nd line defender 7.5mil a year. Especially when he will be 29 this season and that 7.5mil will go on for the next 7 seasons ending when he will be 35. 

Carlsson would probably play over Risto. At least for the next 3 years

[Randall Flagg]

That's your issue? Fine he will be 2nd line. I am not paying my 2nd line defender 7.5mil a year. Especially when he will be 29 this season and that 7.5mil will go on for the next 7 seasons ending when he will be 35. 

I literally agree with your point, but yeah, it's not negligible that he'd be our best defenseman by a lot until Dahlin is probably 21-23 years old. It was worth pointing out that if we did sign Carlson, we wouldn't be signing a scrub - we'd be signing one of the  best defensemen in the league at both starting transition and snuffing it out coming our way, something that not one, single, buffalo sabre defenseman was net-positive at on that chart last season. Who also happened to be 2 points off of being a 70 point defenseman. 

 

That's all.

 

I agree with all of this

 

Carlsson would probably play over Risto. At least for the next 3 years

Ristolainen will never be as good of a defenseman as Carlson is now, unless his hockey IQ suddenly springs into existence out of nowhere for the first time in his sixth NHL season or later

[WildCard]

Ristolainen will never be as good of a defenseman as Carlson is now, unless his hockey IQ suddenly springs into existence out of nowhere for the first time in his sixth NHL season or later

Risto's production is much better than Carlson's was at this point in his career. On garbage teams too

[Randall Flagg]

Risto's production is much better than Carlson's was at this point in his career. On garbage teams too

ES Production, year by year:

Year one: 

Risto: 78 games, 4G, 7A, 11 PTS (Tank team)

Carlson: 82 games, 6G, 25A, 31 PTS

Year 2:

Risto: 82 games, 5G, 15A, 20 PTS

Carlson: 82 games, 5G, 19A, 24 PTS

Year 3:

Risto: 79 games, 5G, 14A, 19 PTS

Carlson: 48 games (lockout), 6G, 11A, 18 PTS

Year 4:

Risto: 73 games, 5G, 13A, 18 PTS

Carlson: 82 games, 5G, 9A, 14 PTS

 

So, it's pretty close, especially adjusting for team quality. If Carlson had had time on their PP (or with Jack/ROR) he'd rack up the secondary PP points like Risto has. 

 

This year would be the year where Risto takes off if he perfectly mirrors Carlson's development, as Carlson put up 8 goals and 38 points at even strength the following year. 

 

And this past year was Carlson's best, with 15 goals (11 at ES), 53 assists (25 at ES), for 68 points (36). 

 

My lack of confidence in Ristolainen to hit that level is 

a.) his intrinsic lack of hockey sense on plays that cannot be excused as being tired, even though I allow him a lot of wiggle room with that excuse and think that usage is a huge reason why he falls apart halfway through the year for three consecutive seasons

b.) I believe his usage has tanked his development and essentially formed who he is as a player, whereas Carlson was ideally brought along, nurtured, and slowly given more responsibility only when he was ready to handle it

c.) Carlson's strength IS his hockey IQ, whereas Risto's appears to be his attitude and getting his shot on goal from the point at least relative to his teammates. And that attitude hasn't done much good besides make him knock guys over in disgust after they score goals, after not being covered by Risto until too late, even though he gave them the blue line to retreat back to that area to cover people in the first place

[dudacek]

Not arguing your point Randall, just pointing out a hole in your methodology.

Your comparison pits Risto’s D2 year with Carlson’s D3

Edited May 1, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

Not arguing your point Randall, just pointing out a hole in your methodology.

You’re comparison pits Risto’s D2 year with Carlson’s D3

I think even the tank is a bigger hole, which is anyone but Risto's fault. But my point wasn't to argue that Carlson was a better offensive player, just to put some numbers out against the "Risto's production is much better at their respective career points" point. 

 

I think, after looking at the stats, I'd even be inclined to agree with that, though I"d remove the word "much".

[GASabresIUFAN]

No just no. It’s time to cultivate our own players. Keep Risto, add Dahlin, Guhle and maybe Pilut. McCabe is a solid 5/6 who can play up in case of injury and let these kids grow up as a unit. It’s better cap wise, development wise and much smarter asset management. Once we make the playoffs and we can see where the true holes in the roster are, then go after a free agent or two.

 

I love both Carlson/Karlssons. They are great players and would both help our team for then next 2-3 years, but we want to build a team that’s competitive for a decade.

 

If you are desperate to sign or trade for someone, find us wingers for Jack. Find the next William Karlsson or Danny Briere, aka find the young guy who will break out if put into the right situation.

[Thorny]

ES Production, year by year:

Year one: 

Risto: 78 games, 4G, 7A, 11 PTS (Tank team)

Carlson: 82 games, 6G, 25A, 31 PTS

Year 2:

Risto: 82 games, 5G, 15A, 20 PTS

Carlson: 82 games, 5G, 19A, 24 PTS

Year 3:

Risto: 79 games, 5G, 14A, 19 PTS

Carlson: 48 games (lockout), 6G, 11A, 18 PTS

Year 4:

Risto: 73 games, 5G, 13A, 18 PTS

Carlson: 82 games, 5G, 9A, 14 PTS

 

So, it's pretty close, especially adjusting for team quality. If Carlson had had time on their PP (or with Jack/ROR) he'd rack up the secondary PP points like Risto has. 

This year would be the year where Risto takes off if he perfectly mirrors Carlson's development, as Carlson put up 8 goals and 38 points at even strength the following year. 

And this past year was Carlson's best, with 15 goals (11 at ES), 53 assists (25 at ES), for 68 points (36). 

My lack of confidence in Ristolainen to hit that level is 

a.) his intrinsic lack of hockey sense on plays that cannot be excused as being tired, even though I allow him a lot of wiggle room with that excuse and think that usage is a huge reason why he falls apart halfway through the year for three consecutive seasons

b.) I believe his usage has tanked his development and essentially formed who he is as a player, whereas Carlson was ideally brought along, nurtured, and slowly given more responsibility only when he was ready to handle it

c.) Carlson's strength IS his hockey IQ, whereas Risto's appears to be his attitude and getting his shot on goal from the point at least relative to his teammates. And that attitude hasn't done much good besides make him knock guys over in disgust after they score goals, after not being covered by Risto until too late, even though he gave them the blue line to retreat back to that area to cover people in the first place

As of now. But I do believe a young defencemen of only 23 years of age still potentially has some re-mouldabilty.

[Randall Flagg]

As of now. But I do believe a young defencemen of only 23 years of age still potentially has some re-mouldabilty.

Not an unreasonable take, but I'll phrase it so you can see what I see for a second - this coming year is Risto's equivalent to when Bogosian got here. I expect similar levels of growth basically

[TrueBlueGED]

Not an unreasonable take, but I'll phrase it so you can see what I see for a second - this coming year is Risto's equivalent to when Bogosian got here. I expect similar levels of growth basically

But I don't want Risto to drive off a cliff :(