New GM Watch

[WildCard]

I'd be interested in a fancystats breakdown on this, if you're so inclined.

Same. I'd love for someone to statistical explain Risto's worth

[Randall Flagg]

I'd be interested in a fancystats breakdown on this, if you're so inclined.

All I really mean by this is that there are "analytics people" on twitter who read a player's corsi and determine his complete worth from it, and those people have been trashing Risto (and other good players like Morgan Reilly) because of it, calling them replacement level players, but if you dig a little deeper you might be inclined to say "hey, we have a 21 year old who was scoring at a 65 point pace until his coach broke him with 35 and 31 minutes played two consecutive nights, after which his production, skating, and play level decreased tangibly, maybe if we take him out of literally top 5 toughest minutes in the entire NHL, and go the Seth-Jones-in-Nashville route with his minutes, there are skill sets and abilities with this player that we can hone into a top pairing d-man."

 

If a GM were to look at Ristolainen's corsi and conclude that he should be traded, that GM doesn't really understand how to use stats as a tool and not just have two columns, good players with good corsi and bad players with bad ones. I don't think a single NHL GM, advanced stat wizard or eye test only, would come to the conclusion that some loud twitter "stats" people do. 

[WildCard]

All I really mean by this is that there are "analytics people" on twitter who read a player's corsi and determine his complete worth from it, and those people have been trashing Risto (and other good players like Morgan Reilly) because of it, calling them replacement level players, but if you dig a little deeper you might be inclined to say "hey, we have a 21 year old who was scoring at a 65 point pace until his coach broke him with 35 and 31 minutes played two consecutive nights, after which his production, skating, and play level decreased tangibly, maybe if we take him out of literally top 5 toughest minutes in the entire NHL, and go the Seth-Jones-in-Nashville route with his minutes, there are skill sets and abilities with this player that we can hone into a top pairing d-man."

 

If a GM were to look at Ristolainen's corsi and conclude that he should be traded, that GM doesn't really understand how to use stats as a tool and not just have two columns, good players with good corsi and bad players with bad ones. I don't think a single NHL GM, advanced stat wizard or eye test only, would come to the conclusion that some loud twitter "stats" people do. 

Yeah this is what I mean. I get why he's good and can explain his bad stats, I'm wondering if there are stats that can show us what you described in words.

[pi2000]

Same. I'd love for someone to statistical explain Risto's worth

 

-77

 

Your welcome.

Edited April 27, 2017 by pi2000

[WildCard]

-77

 

Your welcome.

Honestly I was really hoping you wouldn't disappoint me here :lol: :beer:

[Randall Flagg]

My overall stance on Ristolainen - I still believe he has the potential to be the best defenseman in his age group, because for the first 35-40 games of this season he WAS. Period. It was said here, it was said elsewhere, and people agreed with it. But he is not an elite NHL suppressor/defender at this point, not even close. I think everyone on this board can agree with that. He has a lot of growing to do on the defensive side, which in a vacuum is completely understandable for a 21-22 year old D-man. His positioning and decision-making all need a lot of work. Again, this is typical, and traditionally defensemen are brought along slowly because of it. The only defensemen to really thrive at age 21 are Doughty and Karlsson, off the top of my head. And Karlsson was absolutely ripped for his defensive play until this season. It makes so much sense to take your 40+ point early 20s defenseman and shelter him, but we haven't been able or willing to do that the way Nashville was doing or the way Hedman was slowly eased in in Tampa. Letang is another example, Gonchar was the one leading that group at first. They had Giordano to help Brodie in Calgary, etc. Weber, Keith, Suter, these guys didn't even make the NHL for years. And yet in Risto's 21-22 year old season, only 4 NHL players averaged more time on ice per game. He was used like the guys who ARE CURRENTLY elite two-way defensemen. He had more minutes than Keith, Letang, Pietrangelo, Weber, OEL, Hedman, Subban. Look at the usage chart:

 

 

This is relative to Norris-level defensemen, and he's obviously not ready for that type of role yet based on the color of that circle, but anyone who watched the games could have told you that.

And yet....

 

Doughty, Jones, McDonagh, Weber, Subban, Yandle, OEL, Giordano, Suter, Faulk, Brodie, Parayko, Fowler, Seabrook. These are players that Risto outscored, even though he tailed off in a big way. There are individual plays that many of us remember - shutting down Crosby 1v1 in OT. Beating Nyqvist to a puck and shrugging him off, making a gorgeous outlet pass after. Not being afraid to take the body on guys like Ovechkin and Lucic, getting in their heads consistently. His reverse-check of Ovechkin is an absolute thing of beauty: 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlibrVt0ywE

 

And if you're into "clutch", what's better than the guy that scored the gold-medal winning goal in world juniors? Delicious. 

 

It is obvious to people who watch the games that there is a world of talent and potential here to work with, in Rasmus Ristolainen. That is not obvious to the twitter shot-chart guys who only watch the Leafs and claim that the Leafs would be hosed in a Nylander-for-OEL swap. 

 

He's going to continue to get shelled if he keeps getting used in a way that he can't handle yet, but if we can go out and find our Larsson this offseason, and give Risto a puck-moving partner and ideal(== fewer) minutes, and skew them towards favorable matchups, he can continue to dominate offensively (i've heard other teams' announcing crews call him the best PP QB in the league) while building confidence and slowly coming along defensively, working with skills coaches in that area to get better and better, and in 6 years when he's 28, let me say that again, he'll still be 28 SIX YEARS from now, he should have progressed enough to be able to handle those minutes, or worst case scenario you have a Brent-Burns-level guy, who maybe scores a little less but is equally sketchy in his own zone. 

[LGR4GM]

Well that's what I"m saying - they have work to do, but Bergeron and Krejci aren't 36 yet. If they can get it sorted out, there will be no dip. They've shown to be able to turn nothing into a promising future with their defense corps. And yes, that draft was terrible, and part of the reason why I thought they were bound to flop soon. Grabbing Carlo in the 2nd, and getting the best player so far from the 2014 draft in the teens have helped mitigate those picks and what could have been. 

 

And I know that, but he'll put on display the skill set that allowed him to go from BU to 26 minutes per game in the playoffs in the span of one season post-draft as a defenseman. He had an absolutely incredible year and his decision-making, gap control, skating, and passing are drool-worthy for a kid his age. 

Interestingly, some Penguins fans really, really hope we take Guerin because they don't want him taking over for their guy. They think he screwed up the Despres-Lovejoy trade (which was terrible value at the time, but then Despres' career basically ended and Pitt won a cup after anyway). They would call it "addition by subtraction".

Leon Draisaitl wasn't drafted in the teens... 

It doesn't help mitigate those picks. Instead of having 3 good players, they have 1. It is still a crappy draft. You have 3 chances at good NHL players, you get 1 out of 3. That's not great. Also the 3 picks at 13, 14 ,15 was from the 2015 draft so those picks don't look good at all. 

 

 Further, how many times have we seen a young defender hit the league on fire and then tail off a bit going into year two and beyond? Teams figure out your tendencies. I loved Mcavoy in 2014 and I love him more now. He might be the best defender of his class which is amazing to get at #14. Still, without centers and with how oddly they have drafted since him... idk. 

Edited April 27, 2017 by LGR4GM

[Randall Flagg]

Leon Draisaitl wasn't drafted in the teens... 

It doesn't help mitigate those picks. Instead of having 3 good players, they have 1. It is still a crappy draft. 

A potential first pairing D taken after the 1st round definitely will help the on-ice lull represented by whiffing in that year's first round. 

 

And I'm agreeing that those three picks were terrible. Unfortunately they've nailed a couple others out of the park and therefore might not be the basement dwellers I was hoping so badly that they'd be.

[LGR4GM]

A potential first pairing D taken after the 1st round definitely will help the on-ice lull represented by whiffing in that year's first round. 

 

And I'm agreeing that those three picks were terrible. Unfortunately they've nailed a couple others out of the park and therefore might not be the basement dwellers I was hoping so badly that they'd be.

You're talking about Carlo? Carlo is fine, he isn't the greatest thing since slice bread. 

 

In 2012 we took Zemgus and Grigorenko instead of Radek Faska and Olli Maata or something like that. But we got Jake McCabe in the 2nd, so does that make the Grigs pick good? What if we had taken Faksa or whoever is better there and Zemgus, and McCabe. Just hitting on 1 pick in the 2nd is fine and good for them but it doesn't make up for a poor draft.

 

Boston 2015: Zboril, Barzal, Boeser/White, Carlo... now that is a hell of a draft. Carlo alone, eh you hit on one and good for you. 

Edited April 27, 2017 by LGR4GM

[Derrico]

Man Randall you are a he'll of a member here. Well thought out posts. Going to be disappointed not getting your undivided attention next year.

[Samson's Flow]

Man Randall you are a he'll of a member here. Well thought out posts. Going to be disappointed not getting your undivided attention next year.

Gold standard for supporting opinions and observations with facts. :thumbsup:

[WildCard]

Man Randall you are a he'll of a member here. Well thought out posts. Going to be disappointed not getting your undivided attention next year.

Gold standard for supporting opinions and observations with facts. :thumbsup:

Personally I think he's terrible. 

[Samson's Flow]

Personally I think he's terrible. 

Go clean up the yuck puddle Charlie.

[WildCard]

Go clean up the yuck puddle Charlie.

I can't, Flagg's terrible posts keep making more of them

[Derrico]

Personally I think he's terrible.

Lolz. You know I love you too wildcard (wish I could do winky face on phone)

Edited April 27, 2017 by Derrico

[Randall Flagg]

You're talking about Carlo? Carlo is fine, he isn't the greatest thing since slice bread. 

 

In 2012 we took Zemgus and Grigorenko instead of Radek Faska and Olli Maata or something like that. But we got Jake McCabe in the 2nd, so does that make the Grigs pick good? What if we had taken Faksa or whoever is better there and Zemgus, and McCabe. Just hitting on 1 pick in the 2nd is fine and good for them but it doesn't make up for a poor draft.

 

Boston 2015: Zboril, Barzal, Boeser/White, Carlo... now that is a hell of a draft. Carlo alone, eh you hit on one and good for you. 

Nowhere did I say that it makes the draft sunshine and kittens. But the on ice impact of the 2014 draft is better when you have a good defenseman out there even if your F/D from the first round didn't work out, compared to not having the defenseman out there. That's the only point I was trying to make. Again, overall, I agree that the draft was bad, and that they really goofed each and every one of those first round selections.

[WildCard]

Lolz. You know I love you too wildcard (wish I could do winky face on phone)

For future reference, it's ; + ) => ;)

 

And I just like giving Flagg garbage cause he told people to stop complimenting his crappy work :lol:

Edited April 27, 2017 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

Nowhere did I say that it makes the draft sunshine and kittens. But the on ice impact of the 2014 draft is better when you have a good defenseman out there even if your F/D from the first round didn't work out, compared to not having the defenseman out there. That's the only point I was trying to make. Again, overall, I agree that the draft was bad, and that they really goofed each and every one of those first round selections.

You mean 2015 draft if you are talking about Carlo. Sure it makes it better they got Carlo but that doesn't change the fact they have a rapidly aging group of centers with few options currently for replacement. Tyler Myers won the calder and was never as good. Carlo played well and will get better I am sure but how much better and how will teams exploit him remains to be seen. It is exactly like when Ohio State beat Alabama and everyone said how awesome Cardale Jones was! No one had any tape on him and he got lucky. Once you figure out he isn't that smart and you can force him into bad decisions well that changes things. Will it with Boston? Idk yet, but I have seen too many rookies rock year 1 and then just kinda meh the rest of the way to believe in Boston's young defense core. I will say this though, their young defense core is looking much better than ours... thanks Tim Murray. 

[Two or less]

I'm guessing GM search is on hold until atleast Saturday or Sunday?

[LGR4GM]

McAvoy was the 2016 NHL draft. He is not the best player from his draft. Carlo was the 2015 NHL draft, he isn't even in the top 3 from that class. Sorry just wanted to clarify since I mixed up some of the drafts. I apologize for that. 

[Randall Flagg]

You mean 2015 draft if you are talking about Carlo. Sure it makes it better they got Carlo but that doesn't change the fact they have a rapidly aging group of centers with few options currently for replacement. Tyler Myers won the calder and was never as good. Carlo played well and will get better I am sure but how much better and how will teams exploit him remains to be seen. It is exactly like when Ohio State beat Alabama and everyone said how awesome Cardale Jones was! No one had any tape on him and he got lucky. Once you figure out he isn't that smart and you can force him into bad decisions well that changes things. Will it with Boston? Idk yet, but I have seen too many rookies rock year 1 and then just kinda meh the rest of the way to believe in Boston's young defense core. I will say this though, their young defense core is looking much better than ours... thanks Tim Murray. 

Yeah, I was talking about 2015 the whole time, that's the one they had the 3 first rounders in. 

 

Bergeron and Krejci are 31 and 30. They will continue to be effective players for half of a decade at least, I'm confident that any team can stumble into halfway decent centers in 5 years, provided Darcy Regier isn't the GM. The work has to be done though, and nothing is guaranteed. 

 

If anything, we should have hope that if in 2 years they can go from "Lol they traded Hamilton, all that's left is 38 year old Chara, mediocre Krug, and nothing at all" to "damn, Krug is actually good and those two young studs look sick" then we can take a core of Risto, McCabe, and Guhle and turn it into something very nice in the next 2 years :P

McAvoy was the 2016 NHL draft. He is not the best player from his draft. Carlo was the 2015 NHL draft, he isn't even in the top 3 from that class. Sorry just wanted to clarify since I mixed up some of the drafts. I apologize for that. 

I wasn't clear, it's my bad - by best player currently I was referring to 2014, Pastrnak.

[LGR4GM]

Yeah, I was talking about 2015 the whole time, that's the one they had the 3 first rounders in. 

 

Bergeron and Krejci are 31 and 30. They will continue to be effective players for half of a decade at least, I'm confident that any team can stumble into halfway decent centers in 5 years, provided Darcy Regier isn't the GM. The work has to be done though, and nothing is guaranteed. 

 

If anything, we should have hope that if in 2 years they can go from "Lol they traded Hamilton, all that's left is 38 year old Chara, mediocre Krug, and nothing at all" to "damn, Krug is actually good and those two young studs look sick" then we can take a core of Risto, McCabe, and Guhle and turn it into something very nice in the next 2 years :P

I wasn't clear, it's my bad - by best player currently I was referring to 2014, Pastrnak.

Understand and agree to the first chunk.

 

Pastrnak is not the best player from the 2014 draft class. 

[WildCard]

Yeah, I was talking about 2015 the whole time, that's the one they had the 3 first rounders in. 

 

Bergeron and Krejci are 31 and 30. They will continue to be effective players for half of a decade at least, I'm confident that any team can stumble into halfway decent centers in 5 years, provided Darcy Regier isn't the GM. The work has to be done though, and nothing is guaranteed. 

 

If anything, we should have hope that if in 2 years they can go from "Lol they traded Hamilton, all that's left is 38 year old Chara, mediocre Krug, and nothing at all" to "damn, Krug is actually good and those two young studs look sick" then we can take a core of Risto, McCabe, and Guhle and turn it into something very nice in the next 2 years :P

I wasn't clear, it's my bad - by best player currently I was referring to 2014, Pastrnak.

Effective sure, but not a 1-2. Bergeron maybe, but at some point they have to realize they don't have a lot of offensive fire power, the ones they do are old, and there's not a lot coming up to replace them

[#freejame]

I'm cheating on Fenton with Dubas

 

Agreed on Dubas. A big worry with him is his connections, and if he can be respected and make deals with other GMs

 

I mean, you can wait 5 years for it to pan out but at this point it's inevitable as the sun rising. 

Haven't the Leafs been waiting five years every year since 1967?

[WildCard]

Haven't the Leafs been waiting five years every year since 1967?

They're going to win a Cup in the next decade. Of that I'm sure 

Edited April 27, 2017 by WildCard