Buffalo Bills 2017-18

[jeffismagic]

Dude, he's KILLING IT in 7-on-7 drills.

I am higher on Middlestadt because he looked the part...in practice.

 

But you are taking that out of context. Coaches learn a lot about a player they see every day. Of course the real bullets are more important but Mahomes is a gamer. I expect him to look even better there.

[LGR4GM]

I am higher on Middlestadt because he looked the part...in practice.

 

But you are taking that out of context. Coaches learn a lot about a player they see every day. Of course the real bullets are more important but Mahomes is a gamer. I expect him to look even better there.

Mittelstadt has shown his skill in real game situations this summer. That said Mahomes is interesting to watch, again with the number of issues the bills had and have not taking him at #10 doesn't bother me that much. That is predicated on them getting a QB in the 2018 draft of course.

[WildCard]

I am higher on Middlestadt because he looked the part...in practice.

 

But you are taking that out of context. Coaches learn a lot about a player they see every day. Of course the real bullets are more important but Mahomes is a gamer. I expect him to look even better there.

Mittelstadt has shown his skill in real game situations this summer. That said Mahomes is interesting to watch, again with the number of issues the bills had and have not taking him at #10 doesn't bother me that much. That is predicated on them getting a QB in the 2018 draft of course.

Top NHL prospects are a much higher success rate than NFL prospects. There is a reason for that

[jeffismagic]

Top NHL prospects are a much higher success rate than NFL prospects. There is a reason for that

NFL players have college film to look at. I believe it is easier to project NFL players. That being said, McDavid and players in the top 3 are pretty sure things in hockey.

[WildCard]

NFL players have college film to look at. I believe it is easier to project NFL players. That being said, McDavid and players in the top 3 are pretty sure things in hockey.

I think it's drastically more difficult to predict NFL players.

[Drunkard]

I think it's drastically more difficult to predict NFL players.

 

I don't think the numbers don't bear that out. Part of it probably has to do with the age difference (drafting 18 year olds vs 21 year olds) but the percentage of draft picks that even make the NHL is pretty low compared to the NFL. The draft picks of most teams in the NFL end up on most rosters with many of the ones who don't playing on the practice squad.

 

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

 

Most of the "draft busts" in the NFL are still players on the roster. Most of the "draft busts" in the NHL never even make it.

Edited August 10, 2017 by Drunkard

[WildCard]

I don't think the numbers don't bear that out. Part of it probably has to do with the age difference (drafting 18 year olds vs 21 year olds) but the percentage of draft picks that even make the NHL is pretty low compared to the NFL. The draft picks of most teams in the NFL end up on most rosters with many of the ones who don't playing on the practice squad.

 

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

Most of the "draft busts" in the NFL are still players on the roster. Most of the "draft busts" in the NHL never even make it.

Well NFL rosters are what? 2-3 times the size of an NHL team? 4 times?

 

I'd be willing to bet that more first round picks in the NHL end up having better careers than first round picks in the NFL. And just like the NHL in comparing it to itself, I'd bet both trends exponentially decay the further you get into the round. 

[nfreeman]

I think it's fair to say that it's harder to predict NFL QBs drafted in the top 10 than it is to predict NHL players at any position drafted in the top 10.

 

Certainly if Mahomes turns into a star, Jeffismagic will be vindicated.  Similarly, if TT has a good year, the Bills' decision on QB this summer will be vindicated.  But we are pretty far from either of those conclusions right now.

[Drunkard]

Well NFL rosters are what? 2-3 times the size of an NHL team? 4 times?

 

I'd be willing to bet that more first round picks in the NHL end up having better careers than first round picks in the NFL. And just like the NHL in comparing it to itself, I'd bet both trends exponentially decay the further you get into the round. 

 

It's more than double but less than 3 times. NFL rosters are 53 players with actual game day roster being something like 47 or something like that. I think the NHL is 23 players (give or take).

 

More than the size of the rosters though, I think the difference is the age of the players being drafted. Only the very best NHL draft picks enter the league after being drafted while every NFL draft pick is fighting for a spot the very next season. That helps skew the numbers in the NFL's favor. I'm pretty sure the average NFL career is shorter than the NHL as well which would lead to needing to rely on the next wave of youngsters more as well. 

 

Also, I edited my earlier post to link an article that had a chart with some NFL draft pick numbers.

Edited August 10, 2017 by Drunkard

[WildCard]

I think it's fair to say that it's harder to predict NFL QBs drafted in the top 10 than it is to predict NHL players at any position drafted in the top 10.

 

Certainly if Mahomes turns into a star, Jeffismagic will be vindicated.  Similarly, if TT has a good year, the Bills' decision on QB this summer will be vindicated.  But we are pretty far from either of those conclusions right now.

This is pretty much what I'm getting at. Predicting top talent in the NHL seems like a much more sure bet than it does in the NFL

[Drunkard]

This is pretty much what I'm getting at. Predicting top talent in the NHL seems like a much more sure bet than it does in the NFL

 

Maybe for quarterbacks specifically, but I don't think it's the case for other positions. I think quarterbacks are most similar to goalies.

Edited August 10, 2017 by Drunkard

[CallawaySabres]

If they play McCoy even 1 down, he will tear his ACL, book it. Play Sammy and Tyrod for 2 drives and that's it.

[jeffismagic]

I think it's fair to say that it's harder to predict NFL QBs drafted in the top 10 than it is to predict NHL players at any position drafted in the top 10.

 

Certainly if Mahomes turns into a star, Jeffismagic will be vindicated.  Similarly, if TT has a good year, the Bills' decision on QB this summer will be vindicated.  But we are pretty far from either of those conclusions right now.

 

I was driving around in the city and made the mistake of turning on WGR. Sal C was pushing the narrative that Tyrod would be brought back again in 2018. I almost pulled over I so could jam a spoon in my eyes.

[nfreeman]

I was driving around in the city and made the mistake of turning on WGR. Sal C was pushing the narrative that Tyrod would be brought back again in 2018. I almost pulled over I so could jam a spoon in my eyes.

 

TT has his limitations, but, in his 2nd year as a starter, he directed the #8 scoring offense in the NFL despite being saddled with a lousy group of WRs and generally working in a highly dysfunctional situation.

 

He also runs like Michael Vick.

 

Let's see how he does with a respectable group of WRs and a professionally coached and managed franchise before jamming any silverware into any orifices.

[Randall Flagg]

As a huge TT critic, I would have no problem with bringing him back indefinitely (while also trying other options to solve the franchise qb problem, namely through drafting somebody that doesn't suck, which wasn't an option in 2017). With the way the NFL QB landscape looks, letting go of TT without a Mariota/Winston-looking qb prospect or a Kirk Cousins type acquisition is stupid and a sure way to make the Bills unwatchable now AND in the future, with the same outlook long-term as keeping TT would have but having to watch McCown/Fitzpatrick/Geno/Mallett/etc. type quarterbacks play instead.

[nfreeman]

As a huge TT critic, I would have no problem with bringing him back indefinitely (while also trying other options to solve the franchise qb problem, namely through drafting somebody that doesn't suck, which wasn't an option in 2017). With the way the NFL QB landscape looks, letting go of TT without a Mariota/Winston-looking qb prospect or a Kirk Cousins type acquisition is stupid and a sure way to make the Bills unwatchable now AND in the future, with the same outlook long-term as keeping TT would have but having to watch McCown/Fitzpatrick/Geno/Mallett/etc. type quarterbacks play instead.

 

Exactly.  If Drew Brees or Philip Rivers pops loose?  By all means, move him in and send TT out.  Spend a top-10 overall pick on a QB?  Yes -- the FNG can either apprentice underneath TT or take the starting job, with TT coming in off the bench as needed.  But there is NFW that they should jettison TT without a legit star or possible star taking his place. 

[jeffismagic]

As a huge TT critic, I would have no problem with bringing him back indefinitely (while also trying other options to solve the franchise qb problem, namely through drafting somebody that doesn't suck, which wasn't an option in 2017). With the way the NFL QB landscape looks, letting go of TT without a Mariota/Winston-looking qb prospect or a Kirk Cousins type acquisition is stupid and a sure way to make the Bills unwatchable now AND in the future, with the same outlook long-term as keeping TT would have but having to watch McCown/Fitzpatrick/Geno/Mallett/etc. type quarterbacks play instead.

 

If they win 5 or 6 games (which is around where Vegas has them) what was the point of making them "watchable"? They are only watchable to people who are die hards at this point. Better to plan for greatness than to accept mediocrity and worse.

[Randall Flagg]

If they win 5 or 6 games (which is around where Vegas has them) what was the point of making them "watchable"? They are only watchable to people who are die hards at this point. Better to plan for greatness than to accept mediocrity and worse.

Plan for greatness by finishing last to pick the hardest position to judge at the top of the draft, when recent qb success stories have not come from there? Without knowing if any of those players are even going to enter the draft this year? Trying to out-tank Browns and Jets teams that may have the weakest NFL rosters in decades? 

 

No ###### thank you. Try to get to 10 wins any way possible, use that Chiefs pick on a qb wherever it lands. Try to move up if you like a guy. But Carr, Dak, and Russell have done a lot more so far than Goff, RGIII, Bortles etc. Mariota and Winston look good, but again good luck being worse than NYJ and Cleveland. 

 

Also, it's funny that you think you were banned from TBD for spouting truth that the mods don't want to hear. We'll see how well nfreeman tolerates martyrs after this argument ;)

 

And, in general, I have way more fun watching the last three Bills seasons that weren't "Successful" but still contained more wins than any season I'd ever seen in the decade previous. So I do think there's some value to that. 

Edited August 10, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[jeffismagic]

Plan for greatness by finishing last to pick the hardest position to judge at the top of the draft, when recent qb success stories have not come from there? Without knowing if any of those players are even going to enter the draft this year? Trying to out-tank Browns and Jets teams that may have the weakest NFL rosters in decades? 

 

No ###### thank you. Try to get to 10 any way possible, use that Chiefs pick on a qb wherever it lands. Try to move up if you like a guy. But Carr, Dak, and Russell have done a lot more so far than Goff, RGIII, Bortles etc. Mariota and Winston look good, but again good luck being worse than NYJ and Cleveland. 

Also, it's funny that you think you were banned from TBD for spouting truth that the mods don't want to hear. We'll see how well nfreeman tolerates martyrs after this argument ;)

 

This was the same argument fans had during the Mcdavid/Eichel sweepstakes. I am glad the Sabres chose correctly. Imagine watching the Sabres without Jack.

 

Also, are you saying that posters should be banned for advocating a more aggressive rebuild? 

Edited August 10, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Randall Flagg]

This was the same argument fans had during the Mcdavid/Eichel sweepstakes. I am glad the Sabres chose correctly. Imagine watching the Sabres without Jack.

 

Also, are you saying that posters should be banned for advocating a more aggressive rebuild? 

No, I'm saying it's funny that you think that's why you were banned - I got a very different feel from reading a thread about your banning over there. And I still see loads of people who desire to lose for a high pick. 

 

And no, it's fundamentally different. Imagine if there was a very real chance of Eich/McD deciding not to enter the draft for another couple of years. Imagine if we were the Philadelphia Flyers, or some other mediocre team, in the summer of 2014, and not the team already set to be the worst like the Sabres were. The Bills are a lot closer to Philly in 2014 than they are to the Sabres in 2014. And on top of that, the confidence that Eichel and McDavid would be successful NHL centers was way higher among fans and experts than it is about any of these quarterbacks. In the NHL, top 2 picks that are centers are far and away more successful than QBs taken in similar spots. 

 

It's not realistic to ask the Bills to take the steps necessary to finish last this season, because they'd have to simultaneously cut a large chunk of good players, including and not limited to Dareus, Hughes, McCoy, TT, Watkins, etc. to have a real chance. 

[jeffismagic]

No, I'm saying it's funny that you think that's why you were banned - I got a very different feel from reading a thread about your banning over there. And I still see loads of people who desire to lose for a high pick. 

 

And no, it's fundamentally different. Imagine if there was a very real chance of Eich/McD deciding not to enter the draft for another couple of years. Imagine if we were the Philadelphia Flyers, or some other mediocre team, in the summer of 2014, and not the team already set to be the worst like the Sabres were. The Bills are a lot closer to Philly in 2014 than they are to the Sabres in 2014. And on top of that, the confidence that Eichel and McDavid would be successful NHL centers was way higher among fans and experts than it is about any of these quarterbacks. In the NHL, top 2 picks that are centers are far and away more successful than QBs taken in similar spots. 

 

It's not realistic to ask the Bills to take the steps necessary to finish last this season, because they'd have to simultaneously cut a large chunk of good players, including and not limited to Dareus, Hughes, McCoy, TT, Watkins, etc. to have a real chance. 

 

I think my position is a bit more nuanced than lose as much as possible. If you do a full evaluation of the roster, what do you see? For me, I see a team nowhere close to contending for the division or playoffs. If that is the case, you should acquire more picks and trade as many over the hill vets as possible while spending the bulk of your energy looking for a franchise QB. We shall see soon enough. Russ Brandon and Sean McDermott see playoffs. We shall find out how smart they were in evaluating this roster.

[Taro T]

This was the same argument fans had during the Mcdavid/Eichel sweepstakes. I am glad the Sabres chose correctly. Imagine watching the Sabres without Jack.

 

Also, are you saying that posters should be banned for advocating a more aggressive rebuild?

 

AFTER the decision that there would be "suffering" & assets had been jettisoned for future potential, they needed to see the tank through.

 

There is still room for serious debate as to whether the decision to suffer was correct.

[jeffismagic]

AFTER the decision that there would be "suffering" & assets had been jettisoned for future potential, they needed to see the tank through.

 

There is still room for serious debate as to whether the decision to suffer was correct.

The biggest mistake was signing Leino, Ehrhoff,  and Regeher. Those years remind me of what I expect to come next for the football team. In hockey, you need to get superstar talent. Darcy was right. There certainly were mistakes made down the path but Jack Eichel makes the call an easy win as far as I am concerned. 

[nfreeman]

For the record, I have no idea why Jeff was banned from TSW, but I expect it had to do more with the way in which he expressed his opinions than with the opinions themselves.  So far I see no issue with the way he's expressing himself here.

[jeffismagic]

For the record, I have no idea why Jeff was banned from TSW, but I expect it had to do more with the way in which he expressed his opinions than with the opinions themselves.  So far I see no issue with the way he's expressing himself here.

 

I was told to take a few weeks off. Just have not bothered asking to get back on. Probably best to wait until the season starts as many fans want to believe in the new regime.