wjag Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 I hate words. I'm pretty sure they make a pill for that. :chris: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 I hate words. I wish the Red Sox had gotten some help for the bullpen! But Bay looks like a good pick up. Hittng won't be the Sox problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 I would agree with you that the developing countries are changing the supply/demand balance. In addition, they are bidding high prices in order to get what they want. Take Natural gas for example. Here in the US, after some back sliding recently, natural gas was trading today around $9.50/MMBtu. About 2 months ago, here it was trading at $13.50/MMBtu - which is approximately 6.5 times what it was selling for 2002. That price is enormous today. But what's amazing is that there have been a couple of parcels shipped in liquid form to China a couple of months ago at prices around $18/MMBtu. So why would prices go down when you have both the issue of a supply/demand balance change as well as a group of growing countries who are willing to pay top dollar in order to get what ever shipment they want. Remember about 5 years ago, people talked about building LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) terminals in the US so we could get liquified natural gas and that would add to the US supply and lower prices. Well, no international shipments of LNG are coming to the US anymore because we're only willing to pay $13.50/MMBtu while other developing countries are willing to pay $17-$18/MMBtu. Supply/Demand is a big part of the changing dynamics. Buying patterns are as well. That makes a lot of sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth Greenstein Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 That makes a lot of sense! It took my 65 posts with the new counter and over 200 posts in the old world, but it finally happened! I made sense!!! I will party like it's 1999 baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHAAAUGHT!!! Posted August 2, 2008 Report Share Posted August 2, 2008 Are you saying that the increased demand from rising economies like China, India, Central and South America, the Middle East and everywhere inbetween are not putting serious upward pressures on the price of oil? There is only so much oil. I'd have to say that increased demand is the key factor in all this. You are right, increased demand played a roll in the beginning, but there hasn't been any spikes or surprises in the projected demand from developing nations. Oil prices already had that increased demand factored in. Now if China all of a sudden said they are making 5 new giant plastics factories next year, you would see a spike in oil prices to reflect that. If they said they only expect 3% growth in 2009 instead of 10% growth, the price would reflect that and come down. Lately the demand, while it is increasing, is still increasing at a lower rate than what was expected. So it actually should be helping price instead of hurting it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 I wish the Red Sox had gotten some help for the bullpen! But Bay looks like a good pick up. Hittng won't be the Sox problem :unsure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 I'm pretty sure they make a pill for that. :chris: It's called beer. It comes in long brown pills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth Greenstein Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 You are right, increased demand played a roll in the beginning, but there hasn't been any spikes or surprises in the projected demand from developing nations. Oil prices already had that increased demand factored in. Now if China all of a sudden said they are making 5 new giant plastics factories next year, you would see a spike in oil prices to reflect that. If they said they only expect 3% growth in 2009 instead of 10% growth, the price would reflect that and come down. Lately the demand, while it is increasing, is still increasing at a lower rate than what was expected. So it actually should be helping price instead of hurting it right now. I would agree with your assessment that the lower increase in demand should help pricing come back down. But as with anything as complex as this, there are a variety of variables. I still do believe that both demand and the buying methods of the Chinese and Indians (like buying natural gas at several dollars higher than the market to ensure supply) have been a big part of the issue but as has been mentioned before, the weak dollar is critical to this mess. As the dollar gets weaker, it becomes more valuable to have oil and it drives the price up. If and when the dollar strengthens (and there are signs that it's moving in the right direction), there's a very good possibility that oil will drop significantly. If the dollar continues it's strengthening push, the price of oil could be in the $70-$80 range as early as next year. But even with that scenario, there are a lot of ifs and buts there as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bmwolf21 Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 If the dollar continues it's strengthening push, the price of oil could be in the $70-$80 range as early as next year. But even with that scenario, there are a lot of ifs and buts there as well... IIRC, that was the price range that even OPEC claimed oil should be. I think, despite their recent good windfalls, even they were getting nervous with oil pushing $150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth Greenstein Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 IIRC, that was the price range that even OPEC claimed oil should be. I think, despite their recent good windfalls, even they were getting nervous with oil pushing $150. First off, you are correct - that is OPEC's target price based on the supply/demand balance that exists today. I think there is a little political tint to that - I think that with the current balance, $70 might be a tad low. But, you are correct, that's what they are looking for. At the end of the day, OPEC is interesting in that they are OK with them making tons of money (and who wouldn't be right?), but they are not excited that traders and those who use oil as a financial instrument are making as much money as they are. And as I mentioned earlier, due to the weakness in the dollar, the financial folks and the traders are using it as a hedge and making the price of oil MUCH higher than it should be. And of course, you and I pay the bill... That's the part that sucks about the whole deal. Honestly, I don't think there is anything wrong with oil at $75-$80 even though it was at $40 only in 2005. And that's because of the supply/demand changes. I can stomach that - it's the rest of the $50 in oil prices that make me upset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bmwolf21 Posted August 3, 2008 Report Share Posted August 3, 2008 First off, you are correct - that is OPEC's target price based on the supply/demand balance that exists today. I think there is a little political tint to that - I think that with the current balance, $70 might be a tad low. But, you are correct, that's what they are looking for. At the end of the day, OPEC is interesting in that they are OK with them making tons of money (and who wouldn't be right?), but they are not excited that traders and those who use oil as a financial instrument are making as much money as they are. And as I mentioned earlier, due to the weakness in the dollar, the financial folks and the traders are using it as a hedge and making the price of oil MUCH higher than it should be. And of course, you and I pay the bill... That's the part that sucks about the whole deal. Honestly, I don't think there is anything wrong with oil at $75-$80 even though it was at $40 only in 2005. And that's because of the supply/demand changes. I can stomach that - it's the rest of the $50 in oil prices that make me upset... I agree, especially about the last $50 in prices that gets under my skin. I don't have any economics training, have little business education, but I understand a little about the multitude of forces involved in the oil/gas prices, and I think the fact that the jump in prices was a combination of a bunch of factors and not just one thing or another you can point at. As for OPEC - I think they're OK with having these occasional run-ups, so long as the traders and speculators aren't driving the price up out of control. When the price gets too high, demand drops and the calls for alternative fuels, drilling, etc. increase. OPEC wants to keep us on the oil teet as long as possible, so they don't want to see us aggressively pursuing other fuels and mass transit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted August 4, 2008 Report Share Posted August 4, 2008 It's called beer. It comes in long brown pills. That's why it's called Pilsner, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FogBat Posted August 4, 2008 Report Share Posted August 4, 2008 What are you rejoicing about? :nana: It gets jacked up to almost 5 bucks and then a bone gets thrown out at under 4 and people are singing glory be to God! 8 years ago I was paying around a buck a gallon across the border in Indiana... Now $3.82 near my home in Illinois. <_< There really is nothing to glory over when we see a dip in gas prices. It is a bit relieving to see prices dip, but I'd like to see it go down to 84 cents a gallon like I saw in central Texas nine years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FogBat Posted August 4, 2008 Report Share Posted August 4, 2008 I hate words. You must be glad that you're not employed as a lexicographer with Webster's Dictionary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FogBat Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Yesterday, I saw 3.51 in Harrisonville, MO and 3.49 in Des Moines, IA. Then I saw 4.19 for diesel in Peru, IL. I just hope that BP gets that pipeline in Turkey fixed soon so prices can continue to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Admission: I didn't read the whole thread. No sh*t! So I apologize if this was mentioned. I doubt it was because I'm probably the only conspiracy nut here. But I'm starting to wonder why gas prices have started coming down now, of all times, summertime, a few months before a presidential election. Hmmm, who's going to benefit if Bush gets a third term? Whose legs will becut off at the knees if the amnesiac American population forgets high gas prices for a little while? I smell a rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Admission: I didn't read the whole thread. No sh*t! So I apologize if this was mentioned. I doubt it was because I'm probably the only conspiracy nut here. But I'm starting to wonder why gas prices have started coming down now, of all times, summertime, a few months before a presidential election. Hmmm, who's going to benefit if Bush gets a third term? Whose legs will becut off at the knees if the amnesiac American population forgets high gas prices for a little while? I smell a rat. I think it was the threat of a congressional investigation into price fixing that did the trick. My guess is there were a whole lot of traders that took their foot off the petal. What ever the reason, I'm happy and will be happier if it drops some more. Caught myself smiling this morning when gas dropped 2 cents from yesterday. I stalled one day in filling up. Sad when you are happy when gas drops to 3.69. Now when will the prices drop that were driven up by high gas costs? My guess, never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FogBat Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Admission: I didn't read the whole thread. No sh*t! So I apologize if this was mentioned. I doubt it was because I'm probably the only conspiracy nut here. But I'm starting to wonder why gas prices have started coming down now, of all times, summertime, a few months before a presidential election. Hmmm, who's going to benefit if Bush gets a third term? Whose legs will becut off at the knees if the amnesiac American population forgets high gas prices for a little while? I smell a rat. You're speculating. Don't go any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 You're speculating. Don't go any further. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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