mjd1001

One more interesting stat to back up my "Quinn was awful last year" argument: Quinn was a semi-regular on the Power Play last year (about 164 minutes). When Quinn was on the ice, the team allowed 6 shorthanded goals (1 every 27.3 minutes, or one every 13-14 powerplays.) When Quinn wasn't on the PP, the team allowed 2 total SH goals (2 every 215 minutes, or one every 54 power plays)

And Buffalo has been lacking in that for a while. Last season, even in the less-physical 'pest' role (someone to annoy the other team and draw them into penalties), who do the Sabres have? Benson? Krebs, maybe Kozak? Thats about it, not exacly top-of-the-lineup guys.

Just looking over some stats regarding Dahlin this past season: -When Dahlin was on the ice, the Team was a +33 in goal differential (+20 in 5-on-5) -When Dahlin wasn't out there, the team was -53 in goal differential (-19 in 5-on-5) Thats not short term, that is over the entire season. When the guy is on the ice, they are a very good team. The difference in goal differential with him out there vs not out there is 86 goals over the season. For comparison, Cale Makar has a 57 goal differential with him out there vs not. For Werenski it was 42. For Quinn Hughes it was 90. For Morrisey it was 20. I think the difference in goals on-vs-off the ice is exaggerated a bit for the bad teams compared to the better teams but still, the Goal differential with him on the ice vs off the ice is the 2nd highest in the league among D-men...and he might have passed Hughes for the highest if he didn't miss those games in the middle of the season.

I think its a good move, but there are a few red flags for me on Ehlers: -In the past 7 seasons, only once has he played over 80 games and only twice over 70 games. -He put up good numbers for Winnipeg on a very good team, but what is with him only getting average ice time in the 15 minute range? On Buffalo that is 3rd line ice time practically. He was never used short handed, and only had just above 13 minutes of even strength ice time per game. On one hand you can say he doesn't have much 'wear on the tires', so that is good long term. -Or- you can say you can't push him that hard because he might not be able to handle the workload. Yeah, I'd take him of course, but I don't think he anywhere close to someone that 'gets you over the top' for a team like Carolina, that some are saying on social media.

Limited time with the 3 of them being together, but even strength last year: Tage-Kulich-Benson: 1 goal scored every 15.23 minutes (good numbers) (152 minutes ice time), 1 goal allowed every 19 minutes Tage-Kulich-No Benson: 1 goal scored every 11.1 minutes (unreal good numbers) (200 minutes ice time even strength), 1 goal allowed every 18.1 minutes. The "no Benson" guy most of the time appeared to be JJ Peterka in most cases. But it was Tuch a little, Zucker a little too. The deeper analytics were good for both combos. With Benson the deep-dive analytics seem to be "slightly" better, but that may not have translated well to goals as Benson's shooting percentage isn't all that great. Again, I'm less worried about "Should Kulich be a first line Center" and how that looks on paper, and more concerned with keeping Tage and Kulich together to see if they can replicate ANYTHING close to what they did last year. If that means Kulich gets 1st line center minutes because he is playing with Thompson but the team scores a goal once ever 15 minutes or less, and allows less goals than they score....I don't give a care that Kulich is my 'first line center' if I am getting those results. Again, maybe they won't replicate what they did last year, but I want to find out.

I brought this up in the previous thread but I'm going to say it here again.. Kuluich and Tage together... In about 20 games, were one of the most dangerous combinations in the league. They scored more goals per minute, played than anybody with Matthews up in Toronto, and even slightly more than the McDavid- Draisatl combination in Edmonton. 20 games isn't a lot, but it's not a two to three game sample size either. Maybe it's not going to work long-term, but I want to stick with that pair and see what they can do together again... Until it doesn't work.

Nope. I feel the exact same way. I don't think he's great but I don't think he's bad. I just want to know what's going on.

Just because all are critical on other forums, it doesn't mean that some of the comments aren't over the top. The Sabres may have known this all along with Timmins and been OK with it. The laughing comments and meme posts regarding Adams are just getting old, and in some cases, not even relevant to what is happening.

But on this message board, never miss an opportunity to criticize managment.

People have mentioned maybe he plays differently because of his injury/injuries. That might be it, but the question is did it change him as a player? As mentioned above, he is one of the most "perimeter" players in the NHL, but he wasn't his first year: 2022-23: 33% of his shots from in front of the net/high danger areas (or 66% from the perimeter) 2023-24: 21.4% (or 78.6% from the perimeter) 2024-25: 8.1% (or 91.9% from the perimeter). So, as far as his shot selection/shots on goal, he has steady become more of a perimeter player as his 3 years have progressed. I didn't do a deep dive into his defensive metrics, but when I glanced at them, they aren't all that different from year 1, year 2, or year 3. I'll admit they are at best below average all 3 years (he's NOT a good defensive player by his metrics, or my personal 'eye' test), but his game that way hasn't changed. Hasn't gotten better, hasn't gotten worse. But when I look at the above numbers, what happened? Thats not a statistical anomaly, that is a totally, 100% different player in the offensive zone. Can another offseason to heal, another offseason to have his coaches look at the numbers we all see and the tape and talk to him about it...get him to change his 'style' back to what he did is first year or when he was in the AHL? I'll take that player.

To me, Jack Quinn brought down those numbers (high danger ones) dramatically all by himself last year: Last year with Quinn on the ice, the Sabres were a catostrophic -73 in high danger chances for vs allowed, and -13 in high danger goals for vs allowed in about 890 minutes even strength. The rest of the team combined without Quinn (including Cozens bad numbers) was a -22 in high danger chances and only a -2 in high danger goals even strength over almost 3000 minutes. Break that down on a 'per 60' minute basis: (taking into account both offense getting those chances and defense preventing them) Quinn: -4.92 high danger chances per 60, (one of the worst in the league for a regular player) -0.88 high danger goals per 60 (one of worst for regular player) Rest of team: -0.44 high danger chances/60. (close to league average) -0.04 high danger goals per 60 (close to league average) Just on the Defensive side of things, the team with Quinn on the ice allowed 12.7 high danger chances per 60. The rest of the team when he wasn't on the ice allowed 11.2 high danger chances per 60. Goals allowed: Quinn on the ice, Sabres allowed 3.02 goals per 60 even strength. Entire rest of team without Quinn: 2.73 goals allowed per 60 even strength. The going to the net part is an issue. High danger shots (shots taken form in front of the net, basically less than 6 feet out): Thompson: 15.7% (number would probably be higher but is brought down by his one timers out of that zone on the PP) Tuch: 33.3% high danger Peterka: 21.4% Zucker: 39.2% McCleod: 37.1% Kulich: 29.1% And....Quinn? 8.1%. 10 total shots. Basically he went to the front of the net and got a shot off once every 2 weeks or so. The rest of the team got the puck to the high danger areas, got shots off, and did a decent job of keeping the puck away from that area on defense. Jack Quinn Single handedly brought all those numbers down from middle of the pack and dropped the averages close to league bottom. As per my above post..I wouldn't be surprised if Jack Quinn alone brought down those numbers for the rest of the team in some of those categories. Remove Jack Quinn, or "fix" his game, and alot of this looks 'better' by doing nothing else other than that.

Its not black and white with everyone. I'm interjecting a 3rd opinion, I'm not saying I totally agree or disagree with either of you, but for some of us, we don't like the last 14 years but that doesn't mean we hate everything about the team either. The NHL and the Sabres are entertainment for some of us. Each year, every change to the roster is new hope. Every bad coach or every bad GM CAN make a good decision. So no, we don't like the results, and may not think everyone in place is the best person for the job...but we do like to think of what each change can, and will bring, and not be negative about them all the time. I like to think of things 2 ways: 1.) The Sabres not winning the Cup doesn't mean everything is a total failure. I can watch each game each night and if they win, take that as one single night's positive entertainment. 2.) for some of us this time of year is just as fun as the actual season. The 'team building' the 'roster building' is as fun (or maybe even better than) the actual games. I likened this previously to someone who follows auto racing: Some people just want to watch the race. Others would much rather watch a documentary on the engineers designing the car in the off-season, they would rather see what changes are made to the car before the race, see the adjustments, follow the engineering aspects of designing the car. It can be the same with the results of the game and actually watching the games for some of us. Some of us want the results to be positive, but the 'hope' something can change ALONG WITH observing the results of the moves that are made are the primary entertainment for us.

I'm not so sure I want to break up Kulich and Tage. It might not work out long term, but they clicked big time in the 20 or so games they played together last year. For example: When Tage and Kulich were on the ice together, Their goals for % was almost 60 (meaning the Sabres scored alot more than they allowed) and the team scored a goal when those 2 were out there together once ever 12.6 minutes. For comparison: The Austin Matthews/Marner Combo in Toronto last had the leafs scoring a goal once every 17.4 minutes they were on the ice together even strength. In Edmonton, McDavid and Draisatl skating together had Edmonton scoring once ever 13.1 minutes. In Colorado after the trade, Necas and McKinnon spent most of their time together and Colorado scored a goal once every 18.1 minutes they were together. So again, Kulich and Tage played together for about 20 or so games, smallish sample size, but seeing how well they played together, I might want to keep them together, and that might mean Tage and Kulich on the same top line. I don't care if it was Kulich who elevated Tage's play, or Tage that lifted up Kulich. With the kind of production they had together, I at least want to see if that can continue in any way.

I don't understand the thought process for $9 million per year. Is he a high draft pick with potential? I guess so. But nothing in his play, even if you dig deep into the advanced stats, says $9 million per year... Or even close to that.

Also, it doesn't have to be binary, or maybe it does but in a different way. Sure, it would be great to have a hard nosed, hard-to-play against guy who is also skilled and can play with finesse, but not everyone is built that way. It doesn't have to be a problem through. For example, maybe you put a guy like Power on the ice with the other 'type' of guys, enough of them, so he doesn't have to play that 'tougher' game....and it allows his skills to flourish. Despite his size, it may not always be a bad thing if a guy is super-skilled and you put enough of the other type of guys in the team so he doesn't even have to put a thought to that type of game, and it allows him to just do what he does best. Hasn't Lindy said over and over and over you need some tough guys, some 'enforcers' maybe, to give the other guys more room to play their game?

I don't mind the concept of Social media. Twitter as a place to get information (subscribe to people who put out news, not to interact with them). But my big problem with social media is the interaction. It wouldn't be so bad if it was a place to share ideas. But alas, instead its a megaphone for people to blast their opinion and shout down anyone who doesn't agree with them....with a side of them making not-so-funny jokes as a way to make themselves look clever. I have my opinion, but if someone has a different opinion than I do, I'm willing to tell that person my opinion at our first interaction and then listen for them to tell me their logical reasons why their different opinion might be something I can consider. Who knows, maybe they bring up a point I never thought of? But Nope, Most often if you disagee with someone on social media, even in a pleasant, courteous way, you are met with something like "You are a F****N Idiot!! " or many variations of that. Then again, this very message forum is kinda of a cousin to social media (or maybe a precursor.)

Thats WAY too positive of a take. Don't you know around there you can only post about Adams if its pure, 100% bashing? Nothing he can do, say, no movement of his body can be anything but a total disaster destined to make the Sabres (along with the life every citizen of WNY) worse in every way.

Partially incorrect post on "X" by that guy. They have tried to bring in 'high end players'. Okposo and Taylor Hall were considered at the top of the class in terms of free agents. They brought them in, they both failed here miserably.

I would say that the players chiefly responsible for the terrible D-zone play....50% of them are gone. The 2 worst offenders are not any of the D-man, rather Quinn and Cozens. Quinn still here, Cozens gone.

If they get 'league average-to-slightly above league-average' goaltending (and no catastrophic injuries), they will be better, maybe considerably. If the goaltending is as bad as last year, they won't be.

As time goes on, knowing how much Greenway gets hurt, only 34 gp last year...i'm liking his extension less and less.

Agreed. This team was likely to only get better goaltending if it comes from Levi or UPL. Lyon is here that if those first 2 guys falter, the drop to the play Lyons gives you isn't as far.

You paid Danforth more because that is what it took to sign him. Between Doan, Kozak, Danforth, and anyone else up for a 4th line spot, let it be open competition. The best guys get the sports, whoever doesn't...down to Rochester.

I'm good with it. If he regresses SLIGHTLY its a decent deal. If he plays the same as last year or better, its a great deal. Plus, don't need another hole at center.

Good. On paper, He looked like a decent fourth liner but it didn't seem to work out. Good to get something for him and good for him to move on. It's a small, but a good lesson, that sometimes the statistics on paper and even the analytics don't mean much if he doesn't mesh with the coach or the rest of the team.