mjd1001

We have cap estimates for the next 3 years. I'm pretty sure the teams have some idea where the cap will be a year or two beyond that. I'm not against giving Tuch a significan raise based on the increased Cap. I personally just would look at the 'midway' mark of his deal (if he gets an 8 year extension, what does year 4 look like?) At his age in years 3-4 of an extension, what kind of player do you think he will be then, and what percentage of the cap do you value that? Even with that, you are likely to overpay at the end of the deal. Just do your best to make sure you aren't overpaying 2 years after the contract takes effect.

For the past 3 years, when tage has been healthy, he has scored at a 50 goal pace. He is one of the premier goal scorers in the league. He has an elite hard shot, a pretty accurate shot, and even in tight areas....he is probably in the top 20 players in the league in creating his own opportunities. Take the fastest shot in the league, which is pretty accurate, add elite skills at generating your own shot... And you have one of the top 10, if not, top five goal scorers in the league. The only thing missing is the team around him to give him more opportunities.

I think in some football or baseball stadiums, they have areas where they take out seats... Or seats were never put in and they have the concierge experience locations like you're mentioning. The thing is they don't have to be right down center ice, and a lot of those cases. They're tucked away in the corner or they take out the bad seats and put them in. The thinking is a lot of people who want to sit there... They want exposure to the game, but the experience is more important than being in the exact prime location. At least that's what I think I've seen on some videos of some of these new and renovated stadiums and arenas.

That is my issue. I don't know why, I don't have any statistical evidence directly related to HIM that points in that direction....its just that I feel you are going to see a slight drop off in his performance this year or next, and it will accelerate in years 2 and 3 and beyond of any extension.

I'm not sure why but in the past 2 to 3 days... With no new information... I've totally changed my thinking on how I would want theSabres to handle this. My thinking is lock him up to a long-term deal only if it's a very team-friendly deal. I don't mean lowball him in an embarrassing way, but don't overpay and make sure you're not at the top of the market. You have him this year. My thinking is if he's reluctant to sign the deal you put in front of them then play out the year. If you are having a bad year and it looks like you're going to miss the playoffs, and he's having a good year, then, if he's willing to move, move him to another team. The assets you might be able to get back could be just as good as a 30 plus-year-old aging Alex Tuch. If his play starts visibly declining this year because he is starting to show signs of being a 30-year-old winger, then you dodged a bullet by not giving him $80 million. Finally, if the team plays well and makes the playoffs, and he's a big part of it, then in the off-season you negotiate with him just like everyone else would. By making the playoffs and being his hometown team, at least you're not at a disadvantage against other teams, and I don't think another team will offer him a long-term deal for much more than what you would have to do, again,to get a 30-year-old aging winger. Maybe he'd be resentful against the team for not giving him what he wanted. I doubt that, but if he was and he signed someplace else anyway, then use that $10 million a year to allocated someplace else, again... Not on a 30 to 38-year-old winger. I don't know why but for the past year....up until 2 or 3 days ago....my thinking was sign him at any cost. Now I'm just as willing to let the season play out and see how things go.

I agree with your point... It's hard not to. The reason why Tuch is different... Is you are potentially signing him to a long-term deal that starts after he's 30 years old. All those other guys were in there early or mid-twenties.

I could see Florida taking a big step back without Barkov. Many of us truly think he's a top five player in the league. All the way back to 89? Not sure about that. Toronto is the same way. I do not think they are going to miss marner as much as many people think. As much as I don't really like Matthews, I also think he is by far and away a top five player in the league. He carries anybody on his line. With that said, any injury at all to Matthews, which happens frequently to him, and even a slight step back in their goaltending can be a big drop for them. The only thing is, it's possible those teams can drop that far, but you're relying on injuries to do that. That's pretty much the story for any team in the league.

I go back and forth on the value of signing him long term. Over most of last season, despite how well he was playing, I was not hoping for a long term deal. But then, most of the Summer, I was all for giving him one, with the thought you are going to overpay in later years to get the next 1-3 years. I'm not back on the not really wanting to give him a long term deal. You have him THIS year. By the time NEXT year starts and you might not have him, I just have the feeling his age is going to be catching up to him. So here is how I am looking at it now: If Tuch is looking for close to $10m per year, even with an increasing cap, what kind of player are you going to have 2-3 years from now, and how much better will that likley 'declining' player be compred to one of the young guys who will be getting older? Do you want to be paying Tuch high end top 6 money on a team that is tight to the cap, when he is 32, 33, 34 years old? Or would you rather be paying Rosen, Helenius, Benson, Kulich, Quinn, and/or Doan less money....and in 2-3 years from not might 2 or 3 of those guys be better than an aging Tuch? Or, if you let Tuch walk after this year becaue he is looking for $10m per year, what kind of other player can you sign or trade for using that same $$ and can they be just as good for the next 2-4 years after this year?

The thing is, people who want to criticize the Sabres can use either argument to support that point of view: -The Sabres walk away from Tuch or trade him? Joke of an organization! -The Sabres pay tuch $9-$10m per year over 8 years? Overpay! its going to kill them in just a couple of years!

I understand the basic argument you make, but its not quite that big of a difference. The cap this year is about $95.5 million. In 2027-28 the projection is 113.5. Now, keep in mind that a reason for the big jump is going to be Television/streaming contract based in the next 2-3 years. Its likely the cap will still go up after that, but the rate of increase will slow. So a $10m deal in a cap world of $113.5 is 8.81% of the cap. In todays cap, that is about $8.4m per year. So, Again, I agree with your basic premise that some people might not be looking at an accelerated cap that closely, but the difference is a $10m deal is about $8.4m in todays cap, not $6m or less. Now, he is worth it to the Sabres now, but its might be interesting to look at the 'midway' point of a potential new contract. lets say he signs an 8 year extention. After year 4, going into year 5, he will be 34 years old (turning 35). With 4 years left on that potential 8 year extension at that point, what kind of player will Tuch be with still half the contract left at that age? And you have to think of next season with Skinner's buyount number going up by $2m to $6.4m for next year. If no other changes are made to the roster (trades), the team already has about $80m of cap space accounted for in 2026-27, and that is without contracts for Tuch, Krebs, Benson, Doan, and Kesserling. If next years cap DOES go up to $104m as projected, you have $24m to fit in new deals for Tuch, Kesserling, Doan, Benson and Krebs (or a Krebs replacement) before you make ANY other changes or additions.

Watching the replay of the Detroit PP goal and again with the Sabres PK, they get in trouble when they start chasing and leave their spots. Power went to the board when The Sabres had 2 guys on the board already. Once Detroit got hold of the puck, their guy had an option to move the puck himself or have TWO other guys to pass it two with only one Sabres defender covering 80% of the ice. I KNOW they want to chase the puck, but time and time again, their PK works best when they let the other team control the puck but stay in their assigned spots.

Maybe, but there is another side to it. If Tuch is going to be dealt at the deadline, there is a chance any team trading for him will want to work out an extension. As is the case, the Sabres could allow Tuch to talk to those teams before a trade is complete. Now take that to the next step. There are a LOT of pending free agents right now in Tuchs spot (on last year of deal) and there has been very little movement on any of them, meaning the Sabres 'thinking' on the situation is not different than most other teams. So, lets take this to the deadline where the Sabres have not re-signed him and have to trade him. Any other team will be facing the same dilemna the Sabres are....do you Trade for Tuch (give up ANY asset) for the honor of paying a guy maybe $10+ million long term, on a deal that will start when he is over 30 years old and likely already slightly declining? Its not just the Sabres problem that he may not be worth that much at the deadline, it is Tuchs problem that the best deal he may get will be what he gets NOW from the Sabres and as time ticks away, the $$$s on a long term deal may be declining (or at least harder to get). I really think what is holding this up is simply ever agent representing a guy going into the last year of the deal doens't want to be the one to have his guy 'sign first'. It can be agent career-suicide to sign first, and then every guy AFTER your guy gets a better deal in this rising cap environment.

Tuch is in an interesting, and difficult spot. Now is his time for a Long term deal. Lets say he signed a 2 year deal to see what happens after that. Maybe he has 2 more good years, but the issue is his age. RIGHT NOW statistically he is at his peak. Sure, things can be different but the 2nd year of that deal he will be starting his final year at age 31 and ending it at 32. It is likely his numbers will not be as good as they are now. So, lot of assumptions here but lets assume his numbers at the end of that 2 year deal are a bit worse. Add to that the fact his next deal after that will START with him being 32 and ending the first year at 33 years of age, I'm not sure, even with an increasing cap, that a guy who is going to start his new 'long term' deal at that point in his age 32-33 age year, with possible declining numbers, going to age 38-39....is going to be in a better spot than just getting what he can get this year in a long term deal. The Sabres, or any team, is likely to overpay a bit long term to get prime Tuch age 29-32 (that may not be prime Tuch, that might already be declining Tuch) rather than what they would be willing to pay when he is already sliding at age 32+.

I had a job about 15 years ago where my immediate supervisor was awful. She would do things against company policy, and treated people so badly that she had customers (corporate customers, not individual people at a store) complain to the company about her. She called in sick beyond her allotted days. She was a recent graduate of college (in her 20's) with a business degree. After the 3rd time a customer complained about her, and said she was not allowed at their location anymore, she was promoted.

Not sure if this was posted yet or not, but I just got an email from the Sabres with an offer for free tickets to a preseason game. It said it was based on the email I gave when voting for the goal song. There is a code to redeem apparently in the email.

I guess that's the lesson I could take from preseason, this might be just testing outlines and getting a feel for them. I would like to see Norris play with Tuch. Norris has speed, and Tuch is... In my opinion... One of the best forcheckers in the league with decent speed himself. I'm not sure who would be on the other side of that line... Maybe some kind of guy who's not afraid to go into the corners and do the dirty work and is decent in his own zone... Maybe even Doan? So many possibilities I think could be interesting... I just hope they don't end up slotting the lines like this is a video game or fantasy hockey.

Yeah, I'm not denying that Kulich might have some growing to do in his game, and there's a possibility he could take a step back. I'm just saying that I would start there and then make changes if necessary after you see it works or doesn't work. Maybe the coaching staff thinks a key to this team's success is getting good on the power play... And you want Thompson and Norris to play together to develop chemistry that will translate to the power play? I don't know. I'm supposed to be working now so I don't have time at the moment... But I think an interesting project might be to look at Norris's numbers in Ottawa. Who is he the most and least productive with? Where were his analytics good versus bad? Basically, to find out what type of player in Ottawa he played the best with versus not so well.

If Norris is not a play driver, all the more reason I don't want him with Paige. He's a scorer, I don't want him taking any shots away from tage. I'm starting with Kulich. I posted this a few weeks ago but him and tage together were an elite goal scoring combination. Not for a game. Not for a week, but for a quarter of a season they played together. They had better numbers as a combo than Matthews and marner did for the season. Their numbers were even slightly better than McDavid and Draisatl playing together. Now I don't expect them for a full season to necessarily be better than those guys. But if they were that good.... And 20+ games is a decent sample size, I want to try it again and at least see how it goes. If it doesn't work after a while then make a change. But I cannot fathom why they don't want to to keep that combo going after how they played last year. At times they dominated play and their analytics were off the charts.

Which is why I'm leaning toward Norris not being on the same line with tage. Tage doesn't need him. Tage creates his own scoring chances and puts his own scoring chances away. He's one of the best in the league at that. If Norris has talent, let Norris's talent Help guys on other lines. In short, other guys need Norris a lot more than Tage does. I'm not saying to put tage out there with a couple ahl-ers, but put him out there with a guy like Benson who will do the dirty work and will help keep the puck out of the defensive zone. Benson does not have anywhere close to a good shot. It doesn't matter if he's out there with tage, he can do everything else on the ice but tage is going to get in position and take the shots.

I'd hope even if he was 'good enough' to crack the top 6 (I'm not sure if I'm even there) that you wouldn't have him on the roster this year. I'm not worried about him being 'good enough' this year. I want him to be VERY good in 3-4 years. Yes, you can develop at the NHL level, yes, he can have side sessions after practice with development coaches. But I think he'd learn more playing a lot more minutes and still dealing with development coaches, just not at the NHL level.

Even last year when he didn't play well, I thought Samuelson was one of the better penalty killers on the team. At his best... He has the potential to be a great penalty killer. He's not overly aggressive which can be good on the PK.. his size and reach covers a lot of ground and he doesn't get out of position too often. If he can just stay healthy and improves a little bit to be a decent third pair guy... But you can get him to be a very good to Great penalty killer... He's well worth his contract then.

That thought makes it even worse for me. I'm not a music guy. I rarely have music on in the house, and 90% of the time in the car the radio is either off or its talk radio. I've been to a total of about 5 concerts in the last 20 years of my life, and 3 of them were the BPO. But that doesn't mean I hate music at all, I kinda like most types of popular music. If a song is decent, I favor mostly rock, but there are some pop songs I like too, classic and more modern alternative I can deal with some songs....and not a lot of country but even some country. I listened again to the swords of 1000 men song, and I just don't get it. If you took all the Sabres goal songs of the last few years, including when the players got to pick their own, I really think this one would be at the bottom of the list for me. I really REALLY hope anything else gets it but that.

I wouldn't even say overdone, I think its an awful song.

I'm not sure. We have internet through them so I never thought whether it was required or not.

Look at the plan with Spectrum where they let you pick 10 channels. You get all the basics (the local channels and some basic cable stuff) and then you get to 'choose' 15 other premium channels. MSG is one of the choices so you can get Sabres games. I think its called "Spectrum choice" Last year, it was the absolute cheapest way for us to get the Sabres games. I know its bout $40-$50 less per month than their 'regular' plan.