mjd1001

I actually worked that out a while ago mathematically a while ago... The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple. 32 teams in the leage, 14 times the cup is awarded. Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period. 1 in 2.28. Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%. Or 1 in about 22,000. A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different. Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year. For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on. Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now. So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once? 0.018% chance. Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time. If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row. If the Sabres miss this year, with half the conference making the playoffs again, the odds of missing 13 years in a row would be 1 in 11,062. Chances of missing 14 years in a row? 1 in about 22,000. Or 0.0045% If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet. So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it. Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so. That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there.

I agree with you on a lot of things, the above included. I really think with Cozens, I don't know....is it that he doesn't know where to be? or just he can't control his urge to chase the puck. Its like when little kids start to play hockey at a very young age, you TELL them where they should be, but put the skates on and it doesn't matter, they all just chase the puck, ignoring what they SHOULD be doing. With Cozens, I see the same thing. There are times I swear the team is set up in their own zone, Cozens SHOULD be covering the slot, but then he just leaves to chase a puck he can't get to, and the spot he vacates an opposing player steps into and there is a scoring chance. Skinner on the other hand, I think he just doesn't want to play defense. I watched a replay a couple weeks ago where a goal was scored against the Sabres, and as the puck came from the neutral zone to the defensive zone, Skinner was on his way back and he literally slammed on the brakes, he STOPPED at the blue line and didn't enter the zone. Was he supposed to do that? Meaning was the 'plan' to have 4 guys in the D-zone and he was supposed to be there waiting for a breakout pass? Maybe. Its just that when you watch the games, Skinner isn't often noticable in the D-zone. 2 Different issues with both of those players. Honestly, I think Cozens does more harm in the defensive zone. There hare been discussions lately saying it might be part of the 'system', that the Sabres in their own zone aren't supposed to play 'zone' defense. Still, even if that is true, Cozens is VERY noticable at doing things that no one else does in the D-zone. He is Awful. Move Cozens to wing please where him chasing the puck along the boards in the defensive zone is where he SHOULD be, he hurts this team when he vacates the slot and leaves it wide open.

This offseason was nothing compared to losing Briere and Drury from that mid 2000's Sabres team. Not even close to as bad. And that without even putting any thought to any other teams.

I'd go with a much different approach, I certainly would not bring in another young, inexperienced d-man. How to fix this team without totally blowing it up? -Bring in a 27-30 year old LEGIT 1st or 2nd pair D-man. Give up a high draft pick and prospect it you must. Doesn't need to be a tough guy, doesn't have to score a lot. Just someone you can rely on when the forwards make their usual mistakes in their own end. -Move Cozens to wing. Maybe he'll get less of the scoring chances that he wants/needs, but the rest of his play is better suited to wing. -Clean out most of the assistant coaching staff and develpment staff and bring in EXPERIENCED guys, overpay them if you must. -Put in a system where forwards play positionally in their own end, and when they fail to do so, sit them for a period. -Start Levi as many games in Rochester as possible. Next year, the goal is UPL as the starter, Levi as the backup up here but Levi should be getting playing time now. -Your 4th line should be 3 guys who excel on the PK. Why? do whatever you need to keep Cozens and Thompson (and Tuch) for that matter off the PK. You need those guys for goals, don't eat up their minutes on PK or have them standing in the way of shots that can lead to further injuries. -Pray for better injury luck. Is there more you can do? probably, but that is the list of the things I can think of that are the easiest that would have the greatest impact on this team.

Exactly. One of the biggest mistakes people make is taking a small sample size and then thinking it means more than it does... The difference often times between a good player and a bad one...a great team and average team....is not how they look when they are at the top of their game.....but instead how OFTEN they can play close to the top of their game. Its encouraging to see that line play well because you know they 'have it in them', but before I believe they are a 'good' line again I need to see it several games in a row.

Maybe it is a coaching issue when you break it all down (coaches are responsible for the players actions) but to me it is more of a player issue for this reason...the breakdowns in the D-zone....Cozens, Okposo, and Benson probably account for almost half of them from what I can see on replays of goals allowed. While, when I watch the games myself, Girgensons, USUALLY Greenway and Mitts, and Thompson do not have anywhere near the same kind of breakdowns, hardly any that I see. How are some players just not able to hold their position on the ice, seeming breaking away and doing their 'own thing' causing goals against? While others hardly ever do that? The Cozens thing has me baffled. His ice time was down a bit this year so maybe the coaches are starting to realize he has problems this way, but at the same point, they keep on putting him out there on the PK and keep him at center. The 'can't stop chasing the puck issues to the boards" might actually be a STRENGTH of his game if his defensive assignment was that of a winger, but there must be something else coaching-wise going on under the surface that they know that I (we) don't.

For the second point you make, because mistakes of course are made where your goalie makes a save, but by focusing on goals allowed, we can look at where mistakes are likely made and see the result of them. Its just more efficient than spending 3 hours breaking down film is the best way to put it. As far as the first point who is freelancing? 2 parts to that question. Cozens is the #1 offender. There are times where the 5 man unit is in their own zone and everything is going pretty well, and then for ZERO reason he takes off and chases a puck into the corner, the puck comes back out to where he was supposed to be and there is your goal against. The best way I can describe it is he is like a Dog chasing a squirell, or a cat chasing string...he just can't control himself. Others make that mistake too (Okposo surprisingly a lot, and as much as everyone loves Benson, he can be a liability in his own zone this way) but by far Cozens has done it dozens of times in the past year leading to goals against. Who doesn't do it much? Normally Greenway. He had a bad game last night but he is pretty good as maintaining is D-zone coverage usually. Also Thompson and Girgensons. They both often look like they aren't doing a lot in the defensive zone but are holding position where they should be. A side not, while Girgensons is someone many think is close to useless or want to get rid of, he is one of the players on this team that USUALLY plays positionally well in his own end and is probabaly the 2nd best forechecker on this team next to Tuch. The 2nd part of that isn't 'freelancing', but just that when coming back into the defensive zone, the forwards seem to frequently all go to the side of the ice the puck is on. If the puck is on the far side, both the far side winger and the center are on the far boards, and the 'near side' winger even is near center ice, leaving the entire other side of the ice open (see the Kopitar goal last night for a great example). This happens a LOT! when watching the game I notice this even when goals aren't scored against. In some games numerous prime scoring chances against are allow simply because the forwards ALL go to the side of the ice the puck is on, while someone from the other team just slips into the open side of the ice very easily.

It could be, maybe your correct..... But the problem I see is is, the benefit of that would be to force turnovers, it rarely happens. When you watch the Sabres goals scored, very few of them start with 'tilting' your forwards toward the puck holder in your own side of the ice, causing a turnover and then taking it the other way. Plus, the screenshot I showed is just a symptom/example where you can see everyone doing it. Over the past year, many, MANY goals the sabres allowed were caused by one forward making that mistake. Some of the guys play the right 'zone' and one chases the puck....and the goal is allowed...with no one set up to take advantage of a turnover if presented. Its almost like in football terms, your best defense in most situations is a zone defense, yet the Sabres fowards in their own end prefer to play man-to-man...but they don't even line up on the right guy, they just cover whoever they want. Or worse, the coach calls a zone coverage, and one guy just decides....I want to play man to man so I'm going to chase someone and leave my zone open. It just happens so much with this team/forward group. I think the system is flawed, but your point about them making bad decisions seems like it happens also. Whether the system is flawed, or the players aren't good enough to play it...either way it seems a change should be made.

I didn't watch the whole game last night, saw some of it, rewatched the highlights. I like to take a look at the goals allowed and see what went wrong. Today, I'm not spending much time on it, it is the SAME THING over and over. The forwards do not know how to position themself in the defensive end. The ENTIRE team will look at and follow the puck instead of being where they should be. They do not hold the box in the PK. It is the same thing, game after game after game after game that allows goals scored against. 1st goal allowed: Mitts, Greenway, and I have no idea who the other forward was. Kopitar comes in on the near wing, no one picks him up. He scores. Look at the screenshot below. 4 Sabres players in the D-zone. No one at all on the entire near side of the ice except Kopitar. ALL FOUR sabres players looking at the puck, no one with any awareness to the WIDE OPEN half of the ice Kopitar is on. Easy pass to him, easy shot, easy goal.D-men, including Bryson, were OK, Forwards, its the SAME THING. (see Screenshot below) 2nd goal allowed: Both Tuch and Greenway chase the puck near the blue line. I guess BOTH of them could justify going after the puck from where they were, but they have to know that BOTH of them can't. They both chase the puck take themselves both out of the play, Puck comes to Kempe with NO ONE around him where he has all day to skate in, set up the shot, look for the opening, easy goal. The Sabres D-men were tied up with other Kings players down low, again I don't blame them. It was the Forward chasing the puck AGAIN that caused this. 3rd goal: I say this game after game on the PK. When the Sabres hold the box on the PK, they do well. The other team controls the puck sure, but they simply pass it around the perimiter and waste time and then eventually take a shot the goalie clearly sees and stops. WHEN the Sabres allow a goal it is almost always then they start chasing and the PK box collapses (lately a lot with Cozens on the ice). So guess what happened here? Well, this time it was Greenway and Cozens. They almost kill the entire penalty, but right at the end, the guy has the puck on the blue line on the near side (Greenway's side). He is drifting toward the far side (Cozens side). Greenway starts to follow him to the other side, leaving the near boards WIDE open. I put this more on Greenway, but Cozens could have stepped up a bit so Greenway had no where to go. Anyway, once Greenway is out of position, the puck gets moved to the area he vacated, the entire Sabres team has no clue what to do, collapses down low into a mass of humanity and the goal is scored. Greenway had an awful game defensively. The entire forward group is bad in their own zone. The Defensemen again, not great but not as bad as many think. They appear to have won this game due to some good quick wrist shots and suspect goaltending by the opposition. The forwards on this team have their eyes and their bodies follow the puck like a magnet. This is playoff team if you get a fraction of the missing scoring from Cozens and Tuch back, and if the Forwards can learn to play positionally in their own zone, and not just chase the puck like a pee-wee team full of 6 year olds does. See below picture. Every single player is looking at the puck. Does anyone know there is an entire other side of the ice? Anyone care to even glance over and look to not hang their goalie out to dry? guess not.

I agree with you here. The top 9 forwards LOOKED like they could be set coming into the year, but apparently they are not. Even if they were playing as well as last year, rosters are fluid, guys have good and bad years. Skinner is who he is now..but at some point with his age his scoring will fall off, and that leaves you with nothing. He's not there yet, but it could come in 2 years or in 2 weeks. Cozens, you would be 'set' if he was a 30+ goal guy like last year, but with each passing day it looks like he is more of a 15 goal guy than a 300 goal guy. Tuch, he's not at Samuelsson level of always being hurt, but he just might be a guy that will hardly give you a full 80 games at full strength. We have hopes for Peterka and Quinn and Benson, but the NEED to keep developing and get better. If that development stops (it shouldn't but it might) you aren't set there either. If you go by the theory that Pegula is reluctant to pay another head coach to sit at home, and Adams still wants Granato, how about assistant coach changes? Even without those 2 factors, I would pull Granato in and tell him, you NEED to make changes to the staff right now (and of course make sure you let him pick someone legit, don't force one of your development coaches on him) and go from there.

Hope they win hope they score a lot of goals. Zero chance I'm staying up late to watch THIS team though. If they play a great game, I'll watch the recap tomorrow.

I'm partially there on you. Although based on the general view on this forum, your post could be taken as sarcasm. This season is probably lost. That sucks. This team needs a big time, legit top 4 VETERAN D-man. A legit 27-30 year old guy at the top of his game who has hundreds of games of experience and has seen it all. Not a vet that USED to be a top 4 guy. Not a vet who is really a 5/6 guy but you convince yourself is a top 4 guy. A Legit, quality, for sure top 4 guy. I still don't think defense always has to come at the expense of offense. I don't see odd-man rushes as being a bigger issue for this team being allowed than any other team. I see how the forwards play in their own zone as the big thing. You can push and press as much as you did last year...go ahead and do that....what needs to change is how you play WHEN the other team has the puck in your own zone. They have, and still do suck at that. Tage and Cozens. Game by game I cannot think there is any issue bigger than those 2 and their drop in scoring. On January 24 of LAST year those two had given you 47 goals between them. This year they have 22. Less than half. 25 behind last years pace. The Sabres have 11 one goal losses, probably another 3 games that were 2 goal losses that WERE 1 goal losses before allowing an empty net goal. So basically, they have 14-15 games that they were training by 1 goal at the end of it. Sprinkle in those 25 missing goals from Tuch/Cozens pace of last year to this year...and how many of those 1 goal losses turn into points? Changing NOTHING but Tage and Cozens producing at last years rate and you are probably in the playoffs. Suppose they had 'career' years last year and you don't get that, but you get a 20-25 goal pace from Cozens and Tage gives you his production from 2 years ago? That alone probably still gets you close to a playoff spot right now. Yeah, a lot of problems with this team (No GOOD vets on Defense, forwards are getting SLIGHTLY better in their own zone but still bad), but primarily those 2 guys scoring. You need to fix them.

I agree with you in the fact that I don't put this first/primarily on Granato. Are him and Adams responsible for the support staff and assistant coaches....that might be true. But I STILL think Granato is a good coach for this team at this point, but I think the development staff and assistant coaches are a problem. What is the difference between this year and last....you mentioned Thompson, Tuch, Cozens, Skinner, Samuelsson, Power, and Dahlin. They aren't different players. Its either injuries (which falls under the category of luck) or something else. What else has changed? Granato is the same, but the Assistants/Support staff HAVE changed. Before you trade in the entire car (Adams and Granato) that has problems, maybe try to pinpoint what the problems are (things that have changed, assistant coaches/staff)) and fix those. If that still doesn't work, then trade the car in AFTER you tried the initial fix.

Where has the goal scoring gone and why? last year they led the league in goals scored for a good portion, and finished 3rd in the league in offense/goals. This year, their BEST guy in terms of points is....tied for 61st in the league (lower when you consider games played/pts per game) Their BEST guy in terms of goals scored is....tied for 46th in the league.

Ok not sure where to put this as its the morning after, but looked at the goals allowed last night. First goal: Sabres have ZERO idea how to play in their own zone here, mostly the forwards. Again, All 5 guys seem like they are squeezed into a 30 square foot area of the ice, with EVERY other part of the ice wide open (by the way, Most were just standing there, not doing much. Look at the screenshot I Attached below.) The shot taken for the goal was from an Anaheim guy not even in the screen. The puck carrier behind the net has a couple options, including getting the puck to the totally uncovered guy on the faceoff dot, or the one out of the screen who could have time to EASILY get in a bad pass and control it,step up into the wide open slot, take a shot from where he was (Where the entire Sabres team provides a screen or an opportunity to deflect it in) or just look around for a better option. 2nd goal allowed: PP. Cozens again. I can't say this enough, when the Sabres hold their position, whey they just stay there in the PK box, they do well. Time after time after time you see them keep that PK box sound and the other team just passes the puck around and wastes time or takes a shot the goalie easily handles. The ONLY way they get in trouble is when they start chasing. Well...they were holding the box pretty well, then Cozens, for some reasons, decides to chase the puck to the boards on a play there was basically ZERO chance he would get to it...which allows the opposing guy to take his time and look for a clear lane to get the puck through to the net which allows the goal. Not the worst looking 'can't stop chasing the puck' offense by Cozens ever, but him leaving his spot was what started the 3-4 seconds that led to the goal. What needs to happen to get Cozens to stop making decisions to chase pucks and leave defensive zones wide open over and over and over? 3rd goal allowed: Clifton fell over nothing. 3 Sabres forwards were watching on the other blueline, all in the same place for some reason, but they were down and were looking to press so I can't complain that much....my only thought is why were they all standing so close together they could almost hold hands? No real mental mistakes, just bad luck/bad skates/bad skater. Below is the picture I mentioned, all 5 Sabres guys in one spot, 4 of them doing nothing but looking at the puck carrier, none of them with any sense of where anyone else is on the ice. The guy on the faceoff dot is wide open, the guy who takes the shot is wide open inside the blue line, no one has any idea who to cover. And, this isn't just a luck snapshot, if you watch the replay for a few seconds, this is how they are playing.

There are exceptions to the rule, but they truly are exceptions. Majority of draft picks that turn into good/great players drafted 5th to 15th overall, it does not work that way. Also, Selanne, TOTALL different Era, different NHL, pretty much a different game.

Nice way to add to the conversation! I swear the attituded on this board are getting worse and worse as each day goes by. The highlighted comment was part of a larger post, but I guess you just felt the need to throw a 'duh' out there didn't you?

Probably wasn't going to stay up for the whole game, but I'd go as long as I could if it was tied or the Sabres were up. I didn't think 5 minutes in they would be down already. Hope they pick up their game and win, but I'll be checking tomorrow morning.

22 is really young for a forward. Guys taken in the 5-10 range of the first round sometimes they don't get 'it' until they are 23-25 years old. With that said, Cozens had such a good year last year that its a real disappointment to see this year, espeically with how bad he is in his own zone. And, you are paying him $7m on his new contract to score you 25+ goals per year, I don't think 10-20 goals is going to cut it starting next year.

It's a message board. Isn't that what opinions are for? I have every right to say that I don't like it... Just as you do to respond to my last post which obviously you just did. If me complaining about it gets annoying enough to you, You could just block me... Just as if I get tired of hearing that made up nickname so much, I could block those people. It'll make for a lot less conversation, but oh well.

The point you make about it eventually working is interesting. There might be parts of 'the plan' that make sense, but it just isn't structured that well. I posted some of the below a couple weeks ago: Something to consider as far as team defense goes: Last year Vegas wins the cup, with a very veteran D-group on the blue line. Seattle has surprised many with how good they have been since being in the league, and they did it with a very veteran D-group. This year: Winnipeg 1st in the NHL, average age of their top 4 d-men: 30 years (all of them 28 or older) Vancouver 2nd in the league, average age of their top 4 d-men: 29 years old (Hughes is the youngest at 24, everyone else a lot more experience) Boston 3rd in the league, Average age of top 4 d-men: 28 (no one under 26) Florida 4th in the league: Ave age of top 4: 27.5 (no one under 27) Now how about Buffalo? Ave age of top 4: 22.75. ( ALL of them 24 or under) So maybe the problem isn't development of each individual player, just how they chose to put the roster together and whether there is support for the correct players at the correct time? You can develop your forwards but you BETTER have experienced D behind them. Or if you are developing your D-men you BETTER have experienced forwards in front of them. This team? Neither. The very few Vets they have had are NOT guys who are going to support their teamates with great defensive play (Okposo included), that is for sure.

Maybe a reason that the Bills can't seem to beat the Chiefs in big games is that, when it comes down to it, the Chiefs and Mahomes play better against zone defenses than they do man-to-man, and the Bills/McDermott play primarily a zone. The Bills under McD have always played primarily zone. Of the top 5 teams that play the most zone in the league besides the Bills that KC played this year, Only Chicago is on that list (and Baltimore coming up plays a ton of zone). Historically the Bills have had trouble with Mahomes obviously, and this year against Chicago, KC put up 41, their BEST point total of the season and Mahomes had over a 127 QB rating, his best of the season also. And Chicago wasn't exactly bad, they had 7 wins and overall allowed less points that Detroit, Philly, and the Dolphins (all playoff teams) and if you take out that KC game, they allowed less points per game than also Cleveland and the Rams. On the other side of its, KC vs the teams that play the most man-to-man: The Raider, Pats, and Chargers are among the top 5 teams in Man-to-Man. KC is clearly a better oveall team than all of those, yet they barely got by the Chargers scoring 13 points in their first game (winning the 2nd to a worse team), Lost to the Raiders scoring only 14 in another, and beat the Pats by 10 in a game Mahomes threw 2 ints. Mahomes had 3 total TD's in 2 games vs the Raiders. Yes, Mahomes is good enough that he has good games vs both man and zone teams. However, some evidence exists that, espeically in big games/playoff games, the excels more vs zone teams than he does vs man teams. It may not be that the Bills have a Bad D or that McDermott is a bad coach, or he is always outcoached by Reid...it might be simply he is a Zone coach (no doubt about that) and the chiefs/Mahomes can exploit a zone D much better.

I do, and a couple people who liked my initial post do, and anyone who is responding to this (you)) do also enough to make a comment...so....yeah, there are people.

Agreed, but I just have this feeling watching that even when Tuch and Thompson are playing, they aren't fully healthy.

When it comes to the draft, I'm starting to think it doesn't matter as much as we want until this team puts even more into development. Benson...he's OK, but hes hitting a wall, but he is the on player recently that made the team right away and looked good, but he had minimal time/contact with the Sabres development system. The rest of the high picks....some that look better than others, but no one that is turning this team around. 10 top 10 overall picks in the past 11 years, and how many have turned into legit NHL stars/gamechangers? Eichel won a cup but hasn't lived up to the 'semi-generational' label. Dahlin still has a chance to be elite, but hes not that this year. Reinhart seems to be having a truly NHL impact level season, but years after he left the Sabres and almost a decade after being drafted. I mean, I guess the development isn't truly BAD on this team, but its certainly not good.