TrueBlueGED

It's also pretty far from what I'd consider good.

Not that I expect to persuade you, but The Athletic has a ton of analytics-centric articles. I'm not going to research the specifics, but I think they have a stats-based writer for every market they're in.

I love Ryan Stimson's work, but he has a huge problem: he's using Reinhart's numbers from the wing to argue he might be better at center. Maybe he's right and they translate seamlessly, but it's a poorly supported argument with the data presented.

The hate is because he looked kinda like hot smoldering garbage in most of his college games, particularly when he had to move through his progressions and faced pressure. He has absolutely scintillating physical tools, as evidenced by his TD throw (I still can't believe he threaded that needle). There's a reason scouts love him, and he'll have his share of "wow" moments as a result. But the NFL QBs routinely making deep playoff runs do so on their reads, anticipation, and timing...if they have an otherworldly arm that's definitely a bonus, but it's not what drives the success. Allen didn't display many of the Brady/Manning/Brees qualities in college with any consistency. History may show that it really was due to some combination of his teammates, system, and being raw. But the pre-draft critiques weren't without merit, and there aren't many QBs in history who have overcome his particular flaws. As such, skepticism isn't unwarranted. That said, plenty of his critics won't give him any credit until they have no other choice because they were so hard on him pre-draft. I hope I don't end up in that group, but I don't think it's unreasonable to withhold praise at this point. He had a couple great throws, and I don't want to take that away from him. But those throws we already knew he could make. He also had a few moments where he showed the same flaws as in college: he only completed 47% of his passes and showed panic under pressure. And it was in preseason game #1 with/against 3rd stringers where not a single soul does an ounce of game planning. Some good, some bad, giant meh. If he shows me he has conquered his flaws in regular season action, sign me the hell up and I might even spring for my first jersey since Fred Jackson was in his prime. But I just don't put any stock in preseason. None whatsoever. If I did, I might be signing the praises of Nathan Peterman.

You know NFL preseason has started when somebody is telling you to be excited about the 3rd string quarterback. ??

This is true. Though given his career after he joined Miami, I think it's pretty clear Mario deserves his fair share of blame for how he went downhill.

One could argue those two being in position to get those minutes and put up those numbers is part of the reason St. Louis ended up on the outside looking in last season.

Definitely one of my concerns when thinking about him skating on Eichel's wing.

I agree, but people do the same kind of thing with junior clips or whatever. It's always "he won't do that against NHL defensemen." But then players of Dahlin's caliber, ya know, do.

I know you mean value as an outside addition, but Skinner can't kiss Hossa's jock, so he probably won't have that kind of impact.

Yea, but see, this time it's you on the wrong side of the evidence ?

I completely disagree here. Kane was good at back checking, but once in the defensive zone, he was every bit the black hole that Eichel was/is. There's a reason those two bled goals against while playing together. Busted coverages, lack of recognition, movement without any effect. Ugh. Painful to watch. Anyway, I think Skinner and Kane are close enough overall where I wouldn't clearly pick one over the other in a vacuum. But I'm thinking (or maybe it's hoping) Skinner will bring a more effective complementary skill set. He's definitely a better passer and has clearly better hands with the puck, even if he holds onto it too much; I'm hoping he can make better plays with it. Time will tell, though. I think I'd rather have him on Mittelstadt's wing than Eichel's, but I'm not going to object to trying him and Eichel together.

If nothing else, it symbolizes McBeane isn't completely ignorant of how bad our WR corps is.

I don't have time to read through 5 pages right now, so I'll kept this short: this was a great trade from an asset perspective. We get a legit 1st liner for close to peanuts. But I still hate Skinner. I seriously hate him. I'll never be a fan even if he scores 30 on Jack's wing. Edit: And not to beat a dead horse, but if we still had O'Reilly, I'd be downright excited for the top of this forward group.

I certainly don't think he's a consistent 40-goal scorer, but I think he's really good and probably scores 20 regularly. If he puts up 20 and 45 while playing quality defense, he'd be a steal at $6.5M.

There's just nothing he can show me in practices and preseason that will matter because accuracy was only one of his issues. Decision making and game processing were arguably bigger (though less talked about) problems, and those can't be assessed until he gets some regular season action. Obviously, I'd rather he look good than bad, but we're aways away from him being in a spot to really disprove his critics.

I'm surprised. That seems like a really low ask from Karlsson given the season he just had.

I'll be honest, I expected this to be more Sabres clips.

Hasn't it been almost exclusively lower body stuff? A knee here, a groin there, a side serving of hamstring. Edit: one of our resident doctors can likely tell me if this theory has any grounding in reality, but I've sometimes wondered whether he has too much muscle mass and would actually benefit from slimming down some.

Works for me. Though if my last few seasons are any indication, I should fine a way to be busy and just autodraft ?

Past performance is part of it, and you will get more accurate projections using it...if it's reasonably representative. Trends matter. Age matters. Okposo and Lucic were legitimate 1st line players on playoff teams. It took less than 2 seasons for each to produce less than their body of work would suggest. Brent Seabrook was a top pairing Dman most of his career. Basing his contract on that was a good move...except it wasn't. He's currently a low-end 2nd pair player. And so on.

And this, I think, is the crux of it. The braintrust likes Bogo's game. That's a gigantic miss in terms of assessment, but I've accepted it.

If that's how it turns out, I'm not happy with a single one of those players where they are slotted. Avatar bet? I don't want Nelson penciled in as a regular, but teams can get by with a weak 3rd pair. Bogosian is a huge problem because, even healthy, he's not a top-4 on a good team. Enjoy the bottom of the standings? Then yea, sure, Bogo playing real minutes is fine.

Did I miss something? Or am I just taking this topic completely the wrong way? This seems rather passive aggressive.

It really doesn't. Projections aren't going to be perfect, of course, and there will be misses. But it's not some great unknown, either.