TrueBlueGED

Okay, thanks. I can reassemble my brain now.

Bonuses aren't subject to escrow? Really? Mind. Blown.

I think I'm generally more optimistic about some of the kids than you are, but this was my exact reaction to these lineups. We're going to be a bad hockey team, even if not the worst in the league again. I'm just hoping we see an upward trajectory, unlike last season when we flatlined from start to finish.

Well, there was all the reporting around ROR before the trade about the role the bonus played in his market. Maybe it's a bunch of nonsense, but I'd imagine owners in smaller markets aren't a big fan. I don't think they're super common overall, but it seems they're becoming more frequent with newer contracts.

Yes. Edit: As an aside, I bet reigning in bonuses will be a topic during the next lockout.

Non-bonus money gets paid by game, so the players pay the state income tax in the state that they play the game, regardless of which team they play for. So really, playing in a tax-free state impacts 41 games plus bonuses, not the entire contract value. Plus, that's not counting escrow in a given year and how much that impacts take home pay. And, of course, we all know that nearly nobody pays the top percentage because of deductions. As far as I can tell, all the Fourth Period did was compare state/Provincial tax and shave it off total contract value. So they put out a totally inaccurate number which exaggerates the differences.

I just can't believe Yzerman keeps getting his stars to sign for amounts obviously less than their market value. And we're not talking about $500k hometown discounts either. Hedman could have gotten Subban money on the open market, and Kucherov would have been around Tavares money. Unreal. Yzerman should win every executive of the year award until these contracts expire.

Yea. If they were actually interested in journalism, they'd issue a correction or retract it entirely if they can't put a more accurate estimate out there.

Of course. I'd just hope they're properly prioritized. Many on Twitter are, ahem, not.

Yes, well, with the way he's been dumped on around the trade, I don't think we're the ones whose opinions are on the extreme side of things. People legitimately think two third liners will give us more FFS.

Yes, this is exactly what was said. I'd expect this kind of reply from Liger, not you.

Don't tell that to Paul Hamilton.

I believe the purpose of the club was to isolate purely political conversation. But when it directly intersects with sports, it's allowed on the main board.

Because a number he likes better, and wanted in the first place but it was already taken, just became available.

More accurately, elite players tend to defy the aging curve, or at least delay it hitting. Okposo isn't elite, and never has been. At his peak he was a no BS 1st liner, but that was a pretty short stretch of his career overall. He's a good player, but good players are precisely the ones who the aging curve is a really good fit for. Okposo doesn't have elite hands or legs that can withstand natural degradation. Doan is probably a pretty good comparable skill set wise, so hang your hat there if you want. But Doan probably doesn't look as good the way the game is played today, and for every guy like Doan who survives, there's a lot more like Lucic and Moulson who die off. Edit: I also take issue with the accusation of certainty. I'm not certain he's done. But there are enough question marks, both related and unrelated to the injury, to make me balk at the notion of "a healthy Okposo" being synonymous with a top-6 version of himself from 3 years ago. A healthy Okposo could easily be a 3rd liner at this point in his career.

Or, more accurately, we're saying him getting sick in April probably doesn't fully explain his disaster of a season. Moreover, being further removed from the illness doesn't necessarily mean that any ill effects will vanish. There may have been a permanent impact on Okposo's skills.

Fair. Though it's also worth noting that one can fundraise for a candidate without affiliating with that candidate's political party, especially if there are other connections to that specific candidate. An employee's wife would certainly qualify there. That said, the Pegula's are totally Republicans.

I remember reading it took place there, but that doesn't necessarily mean they were the hosts in a way that bears any more meaning than any other hotel would have as host.

It might have. But it also might not have. We don't know, and so we shouldn't just assume in either direction. What we do know is that Okposo's away from Tavares numbers dropped significantly his last year on the Island. The previous two season, he was steady with and without Tavares. His first year in Buffalo, his overall production again dipped. There is evidence of a decline *before* his concussion issues. Even if his recovery issues have no lasting effects beyond last season (not a safe assumption, but let's grant it for now), and he returns to ore-injury form, his age and performance trend would still lead us to believe he'll keep going downhill.

Iginla and Jagr are a different class of player than Okposo. They're both headed to the HoF. Okposo...isn't.

"A healthy Okposo" is the new "a healthy Ennis." It's a desperate straw to be grasped by fans hoping against all odds that a player hasn't reached a cliff.

Goal differential is definitely better...eventually. For teams, as has been discussed, one season is normally enough for that convergence to happen. I say normally because you still have to be cognizant of outlying performances unlikely to replicate or sustain (abnormally high/low shooting and save percentages are the usual suspects). For instance, if you have a +40 goal differential but that's coupled with a 10% team shooting percentage, that's going to come crashing down to earth. In such a case, only looking at goal differential will lead you astray. Anyway, for individual players, you need around 3 years of goal data for it to be a better predictor than shot metrics. Because of how many fewer goal events individual players have than a team has, relying on only one season for individuals is going to leave you with a whole mess of false positives for the question at hand. Generalities aside, turning to Beaulieu, his both his CF% and GF% place him directly between Scandella (above) and Risto (below). That's not bad, until you consider he did that in a very sheltered role. His xGF% puts him below both of them, but above Tennyson, Falk, Antipin, and slightly above Nelson while slightly below McCabe and Gorges (who ranks #1 on the team in this metric for any defender who played at least 30 games). Taking everything into account, I think the stats ultimately show Beaulieu is a mediocre 3rd pair defender whose possession value gets offset by blockheaded mistakes. He won't kill you in the right role, but you probably want to aim higher.

That's Moulson. He's a proven NHL player. Dahlin hasn't proven squat yet. /grumpyoldmanlogic

You're officially off the reservation. This is as bad as when you mused "What if this Lehner is the real Lehner" when he was in the midst of a stretch that would make Price in his prime look pedestrian.

Regardless, players change numbers. For whatever reason they do it, I don't get the compulsion to psychoanalyze it. These guys don't shave during the playoffs, won't wash their gear out of superstition, have an identical game day routine right down to music, etc. The number is just another on the list of things that are weird, but overall not worth thinking much about.