Would You Want Sabres Sneaking into the Playoffs if it Meant Adams and Staff stick Around With Extensions?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, DarthEbriate said:

There is one way, and unfortunately, it's the way Adams has shortchanged at every opportunity in his tenure until this season (and this season they're running with Luukkonen who is not this guy). They would need elite goaltending. Not "UPL is hot for 20 games" goaltending. Elite goaltending. Hasek goaltending. And they would need it for 55 of the remaining 67 games. It would need to sub-2.00 GAA, .925+ sv% and at least 9 shutouts.

Which is why I wrote "as currently constructed."

The only way we get "elite" goaltending the rest of the way is either Ellis or Levi take over the starting job and thrive.  UPL is a 4+ Gaa guy each night; Lyon a 3+ a night.  Unfortunately, we know that Adams isn't going to give the net over to the kids.

 

[pi2000]

[JP51]

This is like saying, If I can dunk a basketball on a 10 foot net would you let me play in the NBA...  that is a pretty safe bet that isnt gonna happen... I think at this point if Adams can pull a turnaround with this team and get them to the playoffs... sure lol let him stay you can fire him in november of next year ... bottom line we are currently in last place in the conference... again... the hole gets deeper... we are going to need to play like a contender to win the division to make the playoffs... the injuries are insane... I just dont see a path for that to happen...  14 points currently and 6 points out we need to theoretically increase our point production by 43% plus make up the 6 to keep pace and be in a tie for a playoff spot...  coincidentally I would need to increase my leaping ability by the same amount to dunk a basket ball LOL 😄

Edited Friday at 07:49 PM by JP51

[LTS]

Well hell. In High School I could dunk a basketball on a 10 foot net. I wish someone had given me the NBA minimum at the time because I sucked at basketball.  I was barely a decent volleyball player... but I could jump!

[PromoTheRobot]

On 11/10/2025 at 4:02 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which is why I wrote "as currently constructed."

The only way we get "elite" goaltending the rest of the way is either Ellis or Levi take over the starting job and thrive.  UPL is a 4+ Gaa guy each night; Lyon a 3+ a night.  Unfortunately, we know that Adams isn't going to give the net over to the kids.

 

Levi is not playing at an elite level this season. You should watch a couple games. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Levi is not playing at an elite level this season. You should watch a couple games. 

I never said he was.  I said the only chance (the key word here is "chance") we get elite goaltending is one of Levi or Ellis step up and give us elite goaltending.  So far that hasn't happened and may never happen.  What we know is that UPL and Lyon are what they are and are never going to give us elite goaltending.

[Demoted]

18 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Levi is not playing at an elite level this season. You should watch a couple games. 

Levi isn't an NHL goalie sadly.

[PromoTheRobot]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I never said he was.  I said the only chance (the key word here is "chance") we get elite goaltending is one of Levi or Ellis step up and give us elite goaltending.  So far that hasn't happened and may never happen.  What we know is that UPL and Lyon are what they are and are never going to give us elite goaltending.

I don't think you do know what our goaltending is because you tend to see goals allowed strictly as function of goaltending, and not the end result of team play.

Just like hope, expecting a goalie to win you every game standing on his head while his team does absolutely nothing in front of him, is a sh***y strategy.

6 minutes ago, Demoted said:

Levi isn't an NHL goalie sadly.

Goalies are voodoo. He's in a funk right now. All goalies go through down periods. He has to play himself right.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I don't think you do know what our goaltending is because you tend to see goals allowed strictly as function of goaltending, and not the end result of team play.

Just like hope, expecting a goalie to win you every game standing on his head while his team does absolutely nothing in front of him, is a sh***y strategy.

I know exactly what our goaltending is or isn’t.  If you have read my posts over the years I have been extremely critical of our defense as well as our goaltending and talked about how our bad defense hurts our goaltending.  Remember I have been calling for years for capable defensive D for this team.  Instead we got guys like Stillman, Clifton and others.  

That said we have years of track record on Lyon and UPL.  Neither is a top flight goaltender.  UPL has had one good pro season between the NHL and AHL and in limited play this season, he looks exactly as he has most of his career; bad.  Lyon has played well decently this season, but it’s not playoff caliber goaltending.  

I’m not exactly sure why you are fighting me on this, it’s pretty clear neither Lyon or UPL pass the eye test and the stats corroborate this.  

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

I know exactly what our goaltending is or isn’t.  If you have read my posts over the years I have been extremely critical of our defense as well as our goaltending and talked about how our bad defense hurts our goaltending.  Remember I have been calling for years for capable defensive D for this team.  Instead we got guys like Stillman, Clifton and others.  

That said we have years of track record on Lyon and UPL.  Neither is a top flight goaltender.  UPL has had one good pro season between the NHL and AHL and in limited play this season, he looks exactly as he has most of his career; bad.  Lyon has played well decently this season, but it’s not playoff caliber goaltending.  

I’m not exactly sure why you are fighting me on this, it’s pretty clear neither Lyon or UPL pass the eye test and the stats corroborate this.  

It's not "clear" at all. Lyon has been very good. So has Ellis. UPL less so. If we played a modicum of defense, or stopped turning the puck over in our end, we would be above .500 now.

[bob_sauve28]

Just win baby 

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

It's not "clear" at all. Lyon has been very good. So has Ellis. UPL less so. If we played a modicum of defense, or stopped turning the puck over in our end, we would be above .500 now.

We clearly aren’t watching the same team.  The Sabres, as a team, have a .888 save % despite having the best PK in the NHL.  League average is .891.  They have the 4th worst record in the NHL (worst in the East), 4th worst differential at -13. They are 6 games below actual 500 with only 18 games played.

 While the defense still isn’t great, the goaltending has been the problem.  The Sabres are in middle of the NHL in high danger chances against at 164, but lead the NHL in HDGA at 25.  The same for general scoring chances.  They are middle of pack in SCA, but 4th worst in scoring chances goals against at 38. 

As I said before, Lyon has been decent and his numbers are nearly identical to his numbers two years ago when he played 44 games for Detroit.  However, Ellis and UPL haven’t been good.  

I understand blaming the D.  They deserve it for their terrible play for the last 5 years (thx Adams), but Timmins has helped as has an improved Samuelsson.  They still aren’t good.  Power is awful defensively and Kesselring, when healthy, hasn’t been good.  Dahlin’s situation also hasn’t helped. Despite this, the defense is actually slightly better and stats bear this out.  Not good, just better.  

We all want the team to be good and would be happy with better, but to get good we need real goaltenders and we don’t have any.  As I said before, I still have some hope for Ellis and Levi, who both had vastly superior to UPL AHL numbers.  The only way to find this out is to play them.  IMHO this season is already toast from a playoff perspective.  As much as I appreciate Lyon’s effort so far, we need to evaluate Ellis and Levi in the NHL to see if there is something there.  Time to trade/waive/dump/catapult UPL and see what Ellis can do over a bigger sample size.  I’d then trade Lyon at the deadline and bring up Levi.  

If they both stink, oh well!  The next GM will have to find a real goalie for the 26/27 season, and he’d also get a better draft pick in 2026.

[PromoTheRobot]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres, as a team, have a .888 save % despite having the best PK in the NHL.  League average is .891.

You are saying is the Sabres goaltending is within 3-thousandths of league average.

Edited 2 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[JohnC]

We don't have elite goaltending. That's a fanciful aspiration that likely won't be met any time soon. That's not a surprise because 90% of the teams also don't have elite goaltending. What we need to get is consistently solid net play. Do any of our goaltenders on the team or in the system meet the elite standard? I would say no. But that doesn't mean that we can't get the caliber of goaltending that will allow this team to be competitive. Another way of getting more effective net play is improving the play around the goalie, as @PromoTheRobot noted. 

[PromoTheRobot]

Right now Alex Lyon is 23rd in the league in save percentage. .907.  And that includes goalies who've played just one game. He's 5th among goalies with 12 or more starts.

Edited 2 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Right now Alex Lyon is 23rd in the league in save percentage. .907.  And that includes goalies who've played just one game. He's 5th among goalies with 12 or more starts.

He's 19th if you do 3gp or more.

He's 17th if you do 5gp or more. 

[PromoTheRobot]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He's 19th if you do 3gp or more.

He's 17th if you do 5gp or more. 

Okay. Any way you slice it the stats say Lyon is above average.

Now look at the teams those better goalies play on. Colorado? Winnipeg? Las Vegas?

Edited 2 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Okay. Any way you slice it the stats say Lyon is above average.

Now look at the teams those better goalies play on. Colorado? Winnipeg? Las Vegas?

I was just adding context. 

[Ogelthorpe]

No, jettison this executive team into the sun

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Okay. Any way you slice it the stats say Lyon is above average.

Now look at the teams those better goalies play on. Colorado? Winnipeg? Las Vegas?

Are you saying the 17th best goalie in the NHL, a league with 32 teams, is above average?  The interesting math.  

What about the other 35+ games Lyon won’t play? Ellis is 40th in save % in goalies with 3 or more starts and UPL is 52nd.  Remember Lyon has never played more than 44 games in an NHL season.  

I get that you’re happy with Lyon YTD.  All Sabres fans are happy that he has been better than the parade of terrible since Ullmark left town, but at 3+ goals a game this still isn’t playoff caliber goaltending.  He is giving us exactly what he gave Det two years ago.  That team nearly made the playoffs, but only because they scored 278 goals (3.4 goals for per game).  The Sabres are averaging 2.8.  Scoring 2.8 and allowing 3+ is not a recipe for success.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you saying the 17th best goalie in the NHL, a league with 32 teams, is above average?  The interesting math.  

What about the other 35+ games Lyon won’t play? Ellis is 40th in save % in goalies with 3 or more starts and UPL is 52nd.  Remember Lyon has never played more than 44 games in an NHL season.  

I get that you’re happy with Lyon YTD.  All Sabres fans are happy that he has been better than the parade of terrible since Ullmark left town, but at 3+ goals a game this still isn’t playoff caliber goaltending.  He is giving us exactly what he gave Det two years ago.  That team nearly made the playoffs, but only because they scored 278 goals (3.4 goals for per game).  The Sabres are averaging 2.8.  Scoring 2.8 and allowing 3+ is not a recipe for success.

 

More like 17th out of 64 because it includes backups. Not that bad now is it?  You're also ignoring he's 5th best among goalies playing 12+ games. 

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you saying the 17th best goalie in the NHL, a league with 32 teams, is above average?  The interesting math.  

What about the other 35+ games Lyon won’t play? Ellis is 40th in save % in goalies with 3 or more starts and UPL is 52nd.  Remember Lyon has never played more than 44 games in an NHL season.  

I get that you’re happy with Lyon YTD.  All Sabres fans are happy that he has been better than the parade of terrible since Ullmark left town, but at 3+ goals a game this still isn’t playoff caliber goaltending.  He is giving us exactly what he gave Det two years ago.  That team nearly made the playoffs, but only because they scored 278 goals (3.4 goals for per game).  The Sabres are averaging 2.8.  Scoring 2.8 and allowing 3+ is not a recipe for success.

 

That is not and has not been how the NHL has worked in like 20 years or more. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That is not and has not been how the NHL has worked in like 20 years or more. 

Really, then why are their 32 goalies from 32 different teams that have started 10 or more games for their teams this season?  Lyon with 24th on that list is GAA.  

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Really, then why are their 32 goalies from 32 different teams that have started 10 or more games for their teams this season?  Lyon with 24th on that list is GAA.  

GAA is not a goaltending statistic. If goalie A sees 40 shots a game and has a 3gaa and goalie B sees 25 shots a game and has a 3gaa, they are the same? No. 

I went and looked and you wrong. There are 34 goalies that have played 10+ games. 

Edited 59 minutes ago by LGR4GM

[PromoTheRobot]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Really, then why are their 32 goalies from 32 different teams that have started 10 or more games for their teams this season?  Lyon with 24th on that list is GAA.  

Show me an NHL team with only one goalie.