Doan > Peterka?

[Pimlach]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I thought with Doan, we were getting a grinder who was a third or fourth line type of player. However, his offensive instincts and production have surprised me. If he was inserted on the first or second line now, I would not automatically say that he was miscast for those upper line roles, although I would still categorize him as a third-line type of player. I'm not going to say that he is better than JJP but what I can comfortably say that he is a more well-rounded player. What makes his value more noticeable is that he excels in areas in which this team was glaringly deficient, such as net presence, a physical style of play and more responsible play in the defensive zone. There has been a lot of discussion here about roster construction. From that standpoint alone, he was a good addition. 

They are different players.   

So far Peterka and Doan's scoring production has been almost even, Peterka has 9 G and 16 points (+2),  all at even strength.  Doan has 7G, 15 points (-3), which includes 2 PPG and 4 PP points.  In the Utah games that I saw JJP does not play PP1, and  gets limited PP2 minutes.  

I have not seen any actual evidence that Doan is better in the defensive zone than Peterka is right now in Utah - I am sure someone can pull fancy stats comparing the two. I would like to see that.  

Doan's offensive game is to hound pucks and get to the net for the greasy goals, something the Sabre's really needed.  My eyes tell me that Doan has a physical component to his game and hustles to get back on defense, something JJP  did not consistently show.  

Peterka's offensive game is fast-break skating and a sniper shot, skills that several other Sabre players possess.  

The Sabres can use a guy like Doan.  Factor in Kesselring and this is shaping up to be a good trade right now.  

In addition, we just saw that Rosen and Östlund are emerging and they are more similar in style to JJP  than to Doan, so in the name of balanced roster construction Doan is a guy we need.  

[mjd1001]

30 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

They are different players.   

I have not seen any actual evidence that Doan is better in the defensive zone than Peterka is right now in Utah - I am sure someone can pull fancy stats comparing the two. I would like to see that.  

 

I don't put too much into this, but this is the best I can find (keep in mind the numbers might actually under-estimate Doan because he gets so many more defensive zone starts than Peterka does.) Doan only gets about 45% offensive zone starts, and then the Sabres lose the faceoff (lose possession) almost 54% of the time.  Peterka gets 68.2% offensive zone starts, and his team wins those offensive zone faceoffs 62% of the time.

Doan has 63 defensive zone starts, JJP only has 28 defensive zone starts (all this even strength)

So here goes:

When Doan is on the ice:  127 scoring chances allowed.  54 high danger chances allowed. 15.9 expected goals allowed.

When JJP is on the ice:  143 scoring chances allowed.  62 high danger chances allowed. 15.7 expected goals allowed.

That expected goal number would likely be a LOT higher for Peterka and lower for Doan (allong with the rest of the numbers) if JJP wouldn't be sheilded so much from defensive zone starts.

Their ice time per game is very close, and seeing how Doan is on the ice starting in the Defensive zone a lot more and the other team has possession of the puck off of faceoffs more, I'd say those numbers say Doan (and of course, his linemates) are performing positionally in the defensive zone better than JJP (and his linemates.)

This might be the most critical stat favoring Doan over JJP:

Despite the lopsided zone starts (offensive vs Defensive) where Doan starts in the defensive zone and JJP doesn't that much....total time on ice Doan has only 33.7% of his time in the defensive zone, while JJP has 40.9% of his time in the defensive zone.

The goalies JJP is playing in front also have about a 1.5% better save percentage than what Doan has behind him.

The fact that Doan starts in the defensive zone so much more, yet has less defensive zone ice time can only lead me to think he helps a LOT more with getting the puck out of the defensive zone (and keeping it out) than JJP does.  

When taken into context together, most of the fancy stat numbers through 22 games point to Doan being much better in defensive zone coverage and helping exit the puck from the defensive zone than JJP.

 

 

 

Edited 19 hours ago by mjd1001

[Taro T]

31 minutes ago, Big Guava said:

He plays the Rheinhart role for them on the PP...the in front of the net/screen the goalie guy.

It seems Zucker takes more of that role.  

IMHO Doan is in more of the Darcy Tucker role the Loafs used to use.  Win puck battles for loose pucks low and go to the back door for tap ins.

[Pimlach]

33 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't put too much into this, but this is the best I can find (keep in mind the numbers might actually under-estimate Doan because he gets so many more defensive zone starts than Peterka does.) Doan only gets about 45% offensive zone starts, and then the Sabres lose the faceoff (lose possession) almost 54% of the time.  Peterka gets 68.2% offensive zone starts, and his team wins those offensive zone faceoffs 62% of the time.

Doan has 63 defensive zone starts, JJP only has 28 defensive zone starts (all this even strength)

So here goes:

When Doan is on the ice:  127 scoring chances allowed.  54 high danger chances allowed. 15.9 expected goals allowed.

When JJP is on the ice:  143 scoring chances allowed.  62 high danger chances allowed. 15.7 expected goals allowed.

That expected goal number would likely be a LOT higher for Peterka and lower for Doan (allong with the rest of the numbers) if JJP wouldn't be sheilded so much from defensive zone starts.

Their ice time per game is very close, and seeing how Doan is on the ice starting in the Defensive zone a lot more and the other team has possession of the puck off of faceoffs more, I'd say those numbers say Doan (and of course, his linemates) are performing positionally in the defensive zone better than JJP (and his linemates.)

This might be the most critical stat favoring Doan over JJP:

Despite the lopsided zone starts (offensive vs Defensive) where Doan starts in the defensive zone and JJP doesn't that much....total time on ice Doan has only 33.7% of his time in the defensive zone, while JJP has 40.9% of his time in the defensive zone.

The goalies JJP is playing in front also have about a 1.5% better save percentage than what Doan has behind him.

The fact that Doan starts in the defensive zone so much more, yet has less defensive zone ice time can only lead me to think he helps a LOT more with getting the puck out of the defensive zone (and keeping it out) than JJP does.  

When taken into context together, most of the fancy stat numbers through 22 games point to Doan being much better in defensive zone coverage and helping exit the puck from the defensive zone than JJP.

 

 

 

Interesting data and your analysis of it was very helpful.

This is a multi Cup Post!

 

[EM88]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't put too much into this, but this is the best I can find (keep in mind the numbers might actually under-estimate Doan because he gets so many more defensive zone starts than Peterka does.) Doan only gets about 45% offensive zone starts, and then the Sabres lose the faceoff (lose possession) almost 54% of the time.  Peterka gets 68.2% offensive zone starts, and his team wins those offensive zone faceoffs 62% of the time.

Doan has 63 defensive zone starts, JJP only has 28 defensive zone starts (all this even strength)

So here goes:

When Doan is on the ice:  127 scoring chances allowed.  54 high danger chances allowed. 15.9 expected goals allowed.

When JJP is on the ice:  143 scoring chances allowed.  62 high danger chances allowed. 15.7 expected goals allowed.

That expected goal number would likely be a LOT higher for Peterka and lower for Doan (allong with the rest of the numbers) if JJP wouldn't be sheilded so much from defensive zone starts.

Their ice time per game is very close, and seeing how Doan is on the ice starting in the Defensive zone a lot more and the other team has possession of the puck off of faceoffs more, I'd say those numbers say Doan (and of course, his linemates) are performing positionally in the defensive zone better than JJP (and his linemates.)

This might be the most critical stat favoring Doan over JJP:

Despite the lopsided zone starts (offensive vs Defensive) where Doan starts in the defensive zone and JJP doesn't that much....total time on ice Doan has only 33.7% of his time in the defensive zone, while JJP has 40.9% of his time in the defensive zone.

The goalies JJP is playing in front also have about a 1.5% better save percentage than what Doan has behind him.

The fact that Doan starts in the defensive zone so much more, yet has less defensive zone ice time can only lead me to think he helps a LOT more with getting the puck out of the defensive zone (and keeping it out) than JJP does.  

When taken into context together, most of the fancy stat numbers through 22 games point to Doan being much better in defensive zone coverage and helping exit the puck from the defensive zone than JJP.

 

 

 

It is very early. Doan has only played 22 games for the Sabres, and has yet to play a full season for his career.

With that said it might not be too far off-base to say that the Sabres traded away the more 'skilled player', but thus far have received back an equal 'hockey player', especially considering the particular needs of this roster.

[Flashsabre]

I’d trade Peterka straight up for Doan. Doan’s all around game and culture/leadership/ whatever you want to call it is more important to the Sabres team than Peterka’s offense.

Add in a healthy (at some point) Kesselring and I think it will be a very good trade for Buffalo long term.

[LGR4GM]

The rare win win trade. At least so far. 

[Brawndo]

[Pimlach]

Cooley had 4 goals last night for Utah, 2 were in an empty net.  I was surprised to see Peterka with 0 points.  It appears he was not playing with Cooley and Guenther on the first line right now.  He played with McBain and Crouse on the 3rd line,  Utah has been looking at other line combos.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Pimlach

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

For those wanting an explanation, you are looking at standard deviations away from the league mean. Doan is just behind JJP in gf/60 but is actually creating far better in xGF/60. This is probably happening because Peterka is a better shooter and does a lot of damage off the rush. Whereas Doan is more of a cycle player and the Sabres like to take shots off that this year. Doan's defensive metrics speak for themselves. He's almost 3 standard deviations away from the league average in CF which again makes sense because he is cycling the puck and they are getting shots. 

[shrader]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

The rare win win trade. At least so far. 

Is it rare though? I’m thinking that idea is born out of the media’s quick rush to declare a winner before the player has even thrown in the new jersey. 

[kas23]

1 minute ago, shrader said:

Is it rare though? I’m thinking that idea is born out of the media’s quick rush to declare a winner before the player has even thrown in the new jersey. 

It’s probably not as rare as people make it out to be. Even the ROR for Tage trade. It took years for this one to develop. STL’s benefit was immediate and ours was not. And before people say ROR won them a Cup, if Tage was in a competent organization, he would/will probably have a Cup as well. I don’t think we can blame that trade in isolation for our woes. I think it comes down, at the end of the day, who was the better player, ROR or Tage. 

[Pimlach]

23 minutes ago, kas23 said:

It’s probably not as rare as people make it out to be. Even the ROR for Tage trade. It took years for this one to develop. STL’s benefit was immediate and ours was not. And before people say ROR won them a Cup, if Tage was in a competent organization, he would/will probably have a Cup as well. I don’t think we can blame that trade in isolation for our woes. I think it comes down, at the end of the day, who was the better player, ROR or Tage. 

Well many great players played in competent organizations and do not have a Cup, especially in the period after expansion and prior to free agency. 

The Blues unloaded a very bad contract in Patrik Berglund who was done as a player and was a major distraction.   They also unloaded a player that had no more use to them in Sobotka.   So the trade was not just ROR for Tage.    It included a first rounder that turned out to be the last pick of the round (Ryan Johnson), and it was an opportunity to unload some junk and clear some dollars.   

The Blues were looking to re-tool and ROR was obviously a really good 2-way center to help them.  The freaky emergence of Binington in goal, a veteran team with both skill and grit, and then everything fell into place like storybook.  ROR gets a Cup, a Calder and a Selke.   

Everything went storybook perfect for the Blues on the trade.   

It is only fitting that Tage scores 500+ career goals in Buffalo and leads them to a Cup.   

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The rare win win trade. At least so far. 

 

41 minutes ago, shrader said:

Is it rare though? I’m thinking that idea is born out of the media’s quick rush to declare a winner before the player has even thrown in the new jersey. 

What he said.  😉 

Personally would say a fair number of "hockey" trades end up win - win.  It's the ones where 1 team gives up a really good player for future assets or a whole lot of middling assets that one gets taken to the cleaners.

 

What's rare is the lose-lose trade.  Though at this moment, it appears Adams pulled one of those off when he traded Cozens away.  Maybe Cozens figures out how to play in his own end and/or how to make a clean pass on a PP or Norris stays healthy for more than an entire week and that one begins to look good for 1 of the 2 teams; but until either of that actually happens, won't expect it.  Will hope for at (at least from the Sabres perspective, the Otters can go F' themselves) but won't expect it.