Making up for the loss of scoring from JJP (and Cozens among others).

[dudacek]

I think one of the reasons the Sbres offence has been as effective as it has is the amount they generate from the blueline.

This team has three of the top 20 even strength scoring defencemen in the league and Kesselring added another player in the top 50.

Owen power was 3rd on the Sabres, but would have been 1st on 19 teams.

The Sabres top 4 D accounted for 141 points last year. Colorado led the league with 132.

Forwards generally find is easier to score with that kind of support from the blueline and I suspect it will help the new arrivals.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think one of the reasons the Sbres offence has been as effective as it has is the amount they generate from the blueline.

This team has three of the top 20 even strength scoring defencemen in the league and Kesselring added another player in the top 50.

Owen power was 3rd on the Sabres, but would have been 1st on 19 teams.

The Sabres top 4 D accounted for 141 points last year. Colorado led the league with 132.

Forwards generally find is easier to score with that kind of support from the blueline and I suspect it will help the new arrivals.

Does that come at much too high a cost?  Is the D too focused on creating offense that they consistently breakdown defensively?  Would ten less goals by the D, lead to 20 less goals against by eliminating a significant amount of high danger chances against?

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Does that come at much too high a cost?  Is the D too focused on creating offense that they consistently breakdown defensively?  Would ten less goals by the D, lead to 20 less goals against by eliminating a significant amount of high danger chances against?

I don’t think so.

I don’t see a team where the D are making a lot of bad offence-first choices and giving up a ton of chances as a consequence. 

I saw (in particular) Clifton, Power and Samuelsson making a lot of poor zone coverage decisions and execution.

And I saw forwards (especially Quinn and Cozens) too often making a lot of bad puck decisions that flipped the ice the other way.

[LGR4GM]

The Sabres have to remove 17% of their goals against. There offensive output is borderline irrelevant without that change. 

Getting just average gt brings you down to only needing 10% goal reduction. That's how bad UPL and Levi were last year.

 

Quote

Buffalo Sabres (T5) – Presumptive starter Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been a beacon of hope for Sabres fans over the past few years, a promising former second-round pick who looked fantastic two seasons ago. His stop rate plunged to 88.5 per cent last year, nearly nine goals worse than a replacement-level goaltender based on the shot profile faced. Much like Swayman in Boston, the Sabres critically need a bounce-back campaign from their 26-year-old goalie, or they may be hunting for the next solution in net. 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by LGR4GM

[pi2000]

Keeping JJP and his 30 goals, while also reducing goals against were not mutually exclusive choices.

The only reason we're having this discussion is because the GM wasn't creative enough to find a way to do both.... so now were trying to rationalize it... "other guys will score more", "we didn't need those goals", "he was a defensive liability"... etc etc

Facts is it was a ***** trade and the team is worse because of it.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Keeping JJP and his 30 goals, while also reducing goals against were not mutually exclusive choices.

The only reason we're having this discussion is because the GM wasn't creative enough to find a way to do both.... so now were trying to rationalize it... "other guys will score more", "we didn't need those goals", "he was a defensive liability"... etc etc

Facts is it was a ***** trade and the team is worse because of it.

Do you think Buffalo will score 30 less goals this season because Peterka is not here? Or even 20 less goals, let's go with that. 

They scored 269 last year, do you think Buffalo will score 249 goals this year?

[Taro T]

59 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Keeping JJP and his 30 goals, while also reducing goals against were not mutually exclusive choices.

The only reason we're having this discussion is because the GM wasn't creative enough to find a way to do both.... so now were trying to rationalize it... "other guys will score more", "we didn't need those goals", "he was a defensive liability"... etc etc

Facts is it was a ***** trade and the team is worse because of it.

Agree that a better GM would've found a way to upgrade the D and not send out one of their best goal scorers for about 70 cents on the $.

But IF Adams uses the rest of that $5MM in cap space he gained through that deal to add another top 6F, the trade gets much closer to being equal value.  

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Keeping JJP and his 30 goals, while also reducing goals against were not mutually exclusive choices.

The only reason we're having this discussion is because the GM wasn't creative enough to find a way to do both.... so now were trying to rationalize it... "other guys will score more", "we didn't need those goals", "he was a defensive liability"... etc etc

Facts is it was a ***** trade and the team is worse because of it.

I'm really curious to see whether Peterka is more Sam Reinhart or Miro Satan.

[LGR4GM]

How quickly we all forgot how good Samson Reinhart was on both sides of the puck. Truly one of the dumbest trades of Adams illustrious career. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

How quickly we all forgot how good Samson Reinhart was on both sides of the puck. Truly one of the dumbest trades of Adams illustrious career. 

"....but he didn't want to be here"

 

[Cityo'Rasmii]

And no PT's

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres have to remove 17% of their goals against. There offensive output is borderline irrelevant without that change. 

Getting just average gt brings you down to only needing 10% goal reduction. That's how bad UPL and Levi were last year.

 

 

This is a fair and accurate post.  Hard to win if you can't stop the other team.  (ask the Bills in the 4th qtr of the playoffs)

Adams has had years to address the goaltending.  The last game Ullmark played for the Sabres was 4/13/21.  The next season, Adams gave us UPL with Anderson, Tokarski, Dell, Subban and Houser.  He followed that up with UPL plus Anderson, Comrie and a late season visit from Levi.  Next came UPL with Comrie and Levi followed by last season's S..t show of UPL, Reimer and Levi.  Is it any wonder this team can't crawl out of the cellar.  

This coming season we are getting UPL with Lyons and Levi.  Does anyone really expect a different result in year 5 running back the same failed strategy in goal that has failed for 4 straight seasons?

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This coming season we are getting UPL with Lyons and Levi.  Does anyone really expect a different result in year 5 running back the same failed strategy in goal that has failed for 4 straight seasons?

Maybe not, but that 'strategy' in goal was pretty successful just 2 seasons ago.  It has not failed 5 years in a row.

UPL had a great year, and, if I remember correctly, was the best or 2nd best goalie in the league in many/most metrics the 2nd half of the season.

[PerreaultForever]

Well, their strategy for making up for Peterka's goals is clearly 3 things. 

1) Norris is healthy and contributes more than Cozens did.

2) Quinn regains a scoring touch instead of Peterka goals we get Quinn goals.

3) Benson keeps rising and starts finishing his plays and putting the puck in the net.

You go +10 on each of those 3 and there's your 30 goals. That's their plan. 

Personally, as things stand, I'd throw some money at Roslevic, but maybe he doesn't want to be here either.

[Thorny]

On 8/4/2025 at 9:59 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

If y’all want to discuss (bash?) our goaltending, please put in another thread.  Thanks.

Dude it’s August 5th

we always have it down to a single variable by now

Edited 2 hours ago by Thorny
this a joke. kinda

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Keeping JJP and his 30 goals, while also reducing goals against were not mutually exclusive choices.

The only reason we're having this discussion is because the GM wasn't creative enough to find a way to do both.... so now were trying to rationalize it... "other guys will score more", "we didn't need those goals", "he was a defensive liability"... etc etc

Facts is it was a ***** trade and the team is worse because of it.

Absolutely. We are always trying to attach meaning to the moves Adams makes because we are full of more intelligent people who care more about the team and actual success 

it’s all a contruct. We know for a fact there was no plan to trade JJ until he asked for it and they were happy to oblige. The plan so far as it exists doesn’t prioritize the same aims we do I can’t believe this still needs to be said. The vision of how the deal could work is ours, not the team 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Maybe not, but that 'strategy' in goal was pretty successful just 2 seasons ago.  It has not failed 5 years in a row.

UPL had a great year, and, if I remember correctly, was the best or 2nd best goalie in the league in many/most metrics the 2nd half of the season.

Upl had 1 good year in 5. Bet accordingly. 

[pi2000]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Do you think Buffalo will score 30 less goals this season because Peterka is not here? Or even 20 less goals, let's go with that. 

They scored 269 last year, do you think Buffalo will score 249 goals this year?

Unless they make another move I see them scoring 240-245 goals.... giving up 265-270.        

How many goals do you think JJP scores this season?   Next season?   The season after that?    He's 23, he has a few more years before he hits his prime.     Nearly 30 goals in back-to-back seasons as a 22 and 23 year old.    The types of goals he's scores I don't see there being any regression... just 100% progression.   

Edited 1 hour ago by pi2000

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well, their strategy for making up for Peterka's goals is clearly 3 things. 

1) Norris is healthy and contributes more than Cozens did.

2) Quinn regains a scoring touch instead of Peterka goals we get Quinn goals.

3) Benson keeps rising and starts finishing his plays and putting the puck in the net.

You go +10 on each of those 3 and there's your 30 goals. That's their plan. 

Personally, as things stand, I'd throw some money at Roslevic, but maybe he doesn't want to be here either.

I think it's broader than that.

They've added Norris, Doan and Kesselring and they expect growth from Quinn, Benson and Kulich. They also want to score more on the power play. Combined, they think those factors should at least mitigate things.

But I think that's an afterthought in terms of off-season strategy.

I think they are almost entirely focused on cutting their goals against significantly and transforming from a -20 team goal-differential team to a +20 team, which almost certainly will earn them a playoff spot.

[dudacek]

Analytically speaking, the Sabres have dumped 3 of their 6 worst ESGF% players: Lafferty, Clifton and Cozens. Two others in the top 6 — Bryson and Malenstyn — have been pushed down the depth chart. Clifton, Malenstyn, Lafferty and Bryson were also four of their worst five Corsi players and four of their worst 5 xG% players.

The most prominent departure, Peterka, actually had a very solid ESGF% of 54.2%. His Corsi was 49% and his xG% just 45.3%.

In terms of real goals, when these players were on the ice at ES, the Sabres were outscored:

Cozens 46-56

Clifton 41-51

Bryson 27-38

Malenstyn 17-33

Lafferty 11-26

Peterka was on the ice for more goals against than any other forward, but at 82-77 was a + player overall.

[mjd1001]

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Upl had 1 good year in 5. Bet accordingly. 

My point was: 

1.)  it wasn't a failed plan 5 years in a row.

2.) UPL has only had 2 seasons as a 'starter' (more than half the games) and in terms of being very good vs. very bad, hes at 50%.

I'm not saying he is going to be good, but I'm not writing him off as 100% bad.  His "good" year he was just as 'good' as he was 'bad' last season.

Edited 1 hour ago by mjd1001

[dudacek]

Doan and Kesselring ranked 1st and 5th respectively on Utah in terms of Corsi at 58% and 54%

They were 7th and 3rd in ESGF% at 53.7% and 56.5%

And they ranked 1st and 7th in terms of xG% at 60.6% and 53.3%

Neither player was getting the most mportant minutes, but they were clearly winning the battles in the matchups they were seeing.

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Keeping JJP and his 30 goals, while also reducing goals against were not mutually exclusive choices.

The only reason we're having this discussion is because the GM wasn't creative enough to find a way to do both.... so now were trying to rationalize it... "other guys will score more", "we didn't need those goals", "he was a defensive liability"... etc etc

Facts is it was a ***** trade and the team is worse because of it.

The player made it abundantly clear to the organization that he didn’t want to be here. He wasn’t willing to sign an extension and was willing to ride out his contract another year to be an UFA. So he got dealt for a reasonable return. And it should be noted that shortly after the trade he quickly signed a new deal with Utah. I’m more than satisfied with the trade. 

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Doan and Kesselring ranked 1st and 5th respectively on Utah in terms of Corsi at 58% and 54%

They were 7th and 3rd in ESGF% at 53.7% and 56.5%

And they ranked 1st and 7th in terms of xG% at 60.6% and 53.3%

Neither player was getting the most mportant minutes, but they were clearly winning the battles in the matchups they were seeing.

Bump up in role could indeed work.

On 7/13/2022 at 12:05 PM, Flashsabre said:

He was 10-5 with a 2.54 gaa and a .920 sv% with good advanced metrics

He is 27 which is the point most goalies come into their own. He has a great opportunity here to take a net and run with it.

Low risk at 2 years, $1.8 per

 

On 7/13/2022 at 12:15 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Same plan but with some minor upgrades.  The D in front of the goalies should be better with Power and the new Russian.  Comrie is an upgrade on Tokarski.  Subban vs Dell is a wash as both stink. At least Comrie has upside potential.

 

On 7/13/2022 at 12:22 PM, Flashsabre said:

 

On 7/13/2022 at 12:25 PM, Eleven said:

 

 

Three more games played than Hasek had when the Sabres acquired him.  I don't care how many starts he has; I care whether Adams has made an effort to address the position.  Comrie isn't my first choice either, but at least it's someone with potential.

 

Edited 55 minutes ago by Thorny

[dudacek]

Josh Norris is a mediocre forward at best analytically. His numbers have fluctuated over the years, but he was at 48% Corsi, had 45.3% in xG% and a bad 40% in ESGF% last year

Justin Danforth is only slightly better: 48% Corsi, had 50.1% in xG% and 44.8% in ESGF%

Conor Timmins was good: 52% Corsi, had 51.6% in xG% and 56.5% in ESGF%

Zach Jones mediocre: 49% Corsi, had 47% in xG% and 50% in ESGF%

Edited 55 minutes ago by dudacek