Bo Byram ultimate final prediction

[dudacek]

31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Despite my very negative comments and loathing of Adams, my anger really stems from the wasted opportunity that were the young Sabres.  There are real pieces on this team that I believe if handled properly could be the building blocks of a very good hockey team.  Unfortunately Adams is clueless and we are wasting the primes of many of the players list below.

1.  Dahlin - He is a spectacular hockey player and honestly maybe the best defenseman ever to play for the Sabres.

2.  Tuch and Thompson - On a real team these two would be genuine NHL stars.  I like their games and work ethic.

3. Benson and Kulich - I believe in both players and think they have the type of two way games that will make them good to excellent NHL players for the next decade +.  I think Kulich is a good 60 pts 2 way 2nd line center in the next year or 2.

4.  McLeod - He developed in the second half of last year into a perfect 3rd line center for a good playoff team, someone who plays good defense, kills penalties, can play up in the lineup when necessary and can contribute secondary offense.  

5. Zucker - He adds veteran leadership and has more in the tank than I thought. 

6. Power or Byram, but not both. I have been very critical of both players, but both are very good skating young offensive D and I don’t mind have one anchor the 2nd pair as long as the partner is very defensively aware.  Maybe Kesselring is that player, but it’s a huge leap of faith to believe he can go from being a 17 minute a game player to a 22 minute a game player. 

The rest of the team is just roster filler and not good filler at that.  The offense is not the problem with this team.  The problem with this team is in zone D play and goaltending.  These have been the same issues for the last 4 years and Adams “strategy” of hoping kids like UPL, Levi, Samuelsson, and others grow into solving those problems was and is doomed to failure.  A real team would have fired Adams the year the team regressed after the playoff near miss.

 

 

Some other notes:

• Jack Quinn: 30-goal top 6 winger or 35-point defensive liability?
• Josh Norris: 35-goal scorer or broken body waste of a roster space?
• Jordan Greenway: textbook big-body 3rd-line checker or broken body waste of a roster space?
• Mattias Samuelsson:  capable #4/5 or broken body, broken spirit waste of a roster space?
• Michael Kesselring: emerging 2-way horse and missing piece on the blueline or serviceable 2-way #4/5?
• Josh Doan: hard-to-play against 20/20 grinder+ or Beck Malenstyn 2.0?
• Peyton Krebs: disposable JAG or emerging 2-way 3C?
• Ukka-Pekko Luukkonen: disposable JAG or legit NHL starter?

I'm curious if any of these "roster filler" pieces have anything more to give.

 

[Flashsabre]

LOL not a big fan of Adams name

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Some other notes:

• Jack Quinn: 30-goal top 6 winger or 35-point defensive liability?
• Josh Norris: 35-goal scorer or broken body waste of a roster space?
• Jordan Greenway: textbook big-body 3rd-line checker or broken body waste of a roster space?
• Mattias Samuelsson:  capable #4/5 or broken body, broken spirit waste of a roster space?
• Michael Kesselring: emerging 2-way horse and missing piece on the blueline or serviceable 2-way #4/5?
• Josh Doan: hard-to-play against 20/20 grinder+ or Beck Malenstyn 2.0?
• Peyton Krebs: disposable JAG or emerging 2-way 3C?
• Ukka-Pekko Luukkonen: disposable JAG or legit NHL starter?

I'm curious if any of these "roster filler" pieces have anything more to give.

 

UPL - 1 good season in 5 professional seasons.  JAG

Krebs - JAG

Doan -  4th line grinder.  

Kesselring -  17:30 minute a night guy.  Likely asking too much for him to move up to 22 minutes a night.  3rd pairing guy on a good team

Samuelsson - Bust.  Should have been bought out.

Greenway - loved the Minn Greenway.  His injuries have robbed him of that physical game most nights.  JAG

Norris - Will score goals when healthy, which is never.  

Quinn - still has a chance to be a good NHLer.  Has to stay healthy.  Very cautiously optimistic.

All could make an impact with Kesselring and Quinn being the most likely.   Unfortunately, your analysis starts with 3 guys with significant injury histories (should be 4 w Quinn) the odds of getting and keeping all of them healthy for the majority of the season is unlikely.  Sadly, Adams is trusting all these guys to make an impact.  What’s the odds of that?

 

Edited 1 hour ago by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

UPL - 1 good season in 5 professional seasons.  JAG

Krebs - JAG

Doan -  4th line grinder.  

Kesselring -  17:30 minute a night guy.  Likely asking too much for him to move up to 22 minutes a night.  3rd pairing guy on a good team

Samuelsson - Bust.  Should have been bought out.

Greenway - loved the Minn Greenway.  His injuries have robbed him of that physical game most nights.  JAG

Norris - Will score goals when healthy, which is never.  

Quinn - still has a chance to be a good NHLer.  Has to stay healthy.  Very cautiously optimistic.

All could make an impact with Kesselring and Quinn being the most likely.   Unfortunately, your analysis starts with 3 guys with significant injury histories (should be 4 w Quinn) the odds of getting and keeping all of them healthy for the majority of the season is unlikely.  Sadly, Adams is trusting all these guys to make an impact.  What’s the odds of that?

 

Do not agree. I think Kesselring playing an extra 5 shifts a game won't be much of a problem considering he did it at various times in Utah. 

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

UPL - 1 good season in 5 professional seasons.  JAG

Krebs - JAG

Doan -  4th line grinder.  

Kesselring -  17:30 minute a night guy.  Likely asking too much for him to move up to 22 minutes a night.  3rd pairing guy on a good team

Samuelsson - Bust.  Should have been bought out.

Greenway - loved the Minn Greenway.  His injuries have robbed him of that physical game most nights.  JAG

Norris - Will score goals when healthy, which is never.  

Quinn - still has a chance to be a good NHLer.  Has to stay healthy.  Very cautiously optimistic.

All could make an impact with Kesselring and Quinn being the most likely.   Unfortunately, your analysis starts with 3 guys with significant injury histories (should be 4 w Quinn) the odds of getting and keeping all of them healthy for the majority of the season is unlikely.  Sadly, Adams is trusting all these guys to make an impact.  What’s the odds of that?

 

 

I’m tired of crossing my fingers for players, but that’s been the Sabre way for 5 years now.

To my eyes there’s a fair amount of potential upside on this roster.

But there is an equal amount of downside, and only three players (Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin) that I’m reasonably comfortable that I know what I’m going to get.

Sometimes, for some teams, the dice rolls the right way, like it did for Montreal last year and Vancouver 2 years ago. 

Never does for us. And it would be nice to stop depending on dice.

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Do not agree. I think Kesselring playing an extra 5 shifts a game won't be much of a problem considering he did it at various times in Utah. 

Kesselring never skated over 20 minutes in a game after game 49 last season.  After that his ice time diminished.  From games 54-73 he skated between 12-15 nearly every game.  This looks very much like the coaching staff in Utah lost some confidence in Kesselring.  His offense decreased and he went from +10 in the first 49 to -6 in the last 33.

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I’m tired of crossing my fingers for players, but that’s been the Sabre way for 5 years now.

To my eyes there’s a fair amount of potential upside on this roster.

But there is an equal amount of downside, and only three players (Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin) that I’m reasonably comfortable that I know what I’m going to get.

Sometimes, for some teams, the dice rolls the right way, like it did for Montreal last year and Vancouver 2 years ago. 

Never does for us. And it would be nice to stop depending on dice.

This is my point about this team.  Adams is gambling on everyone staying healthy, producing and miraculously learning to play defense.  He is praying that a goalie (UPL) with one good professional season in 5 has another breakout season and if he fails Adams is hoping that another prospect, who can’t seem to handle the NHL game, finally figures it out.  I think Adams has a better chance of winning the Powerball. 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Kesselring never skated over 20 minutes in a game after game 49 last season.  After that his ice time diminished.  From games 54-73 he skated between 12-15 nearly every game.  This looks very much like the coaching staff in Utah lost some confidence in Kesselring.  His offense decreased and he went from +10 in the first 49 to -6 in the last 33.

Except if you know what was going on in Utah you know that isn't what happened. You know who came back into the lineup at game 57, Sean Durzi, was out from game 4-57. Do you know who came back into their lineup at game 43 after missing 1-43? John Marino. 

They didn't lose confidence in Kesselring, they plugged back in the top 2 RHD they were paying to play those roles. I bet his +/- went down after he went from playing with good defense partners and the teams top 2 scoring lines to playing with plugs. 

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Some other notes:

• Jack Quinn: 30-goal top 6 winger or 35-point defensive liability?
• Josh Norris: 35-goal scorer or broken body waste of a roster space?
• Jordan Greenway: textbook big-body 3rd-line checker or broken body waste of a roster space?
• Mattias Samuelsson:  capable #4/5 or broken body, broken spirit waste of a roster space?
• Michael Kesselring: emerging 2-way horse and missing piece on the blueline or serviceable 2-way #4/5?
• Josh Doan: hard-to-play against 20/20 grinder+ or Beck Malenstyn 2.0?
• Peyton Krebs: disposable JAG or emerging 2-way 3C?
• Ukka-Pekko Luukkonen: disposable JAG or legit NHL starter?

I'm curious if any of these "roster filler" pieces have anything more to give.

 

Quinn: I'm leaning toward 35 point (slightly higher) but a defensive liability. I would have rather seen him moved for even the best available pick you could get for him rather than have him brought back. I guess He is still young enough to prove me wrong but he hurt this team badly last year.

Norris:  I want to lean more toward the 35 goal scorer, so that is what I am doing.  I'm just not sure where he fits on the roster. I want to see Tage and Kulich stay together until that is proven to no longer work, and McLeod I want to get more than the 14.5 minutes than 3rd line centers normally get.

Greenway: I don't see him as needed on this roster, and he's always seems to be hurt.  If he was gone I wouldn't miss him.

Samuelsson:  I'm guessing I'm in the minority, but I still think he can be a good middle pair guy.

Kesserling: I have Zero idea.

Doan:  Optimistic he can eventually be a somewhat-physical, 20 goal pest

Krebs: someplace in between what you are saying. Last year I was as down on him as I am on Quinn this year, but I thought he had a pretty good year.  I would not mind seeing his ice time increase, He 'hurts' this team less than Cozens did.

UPL:  Could be either. He WAS one of the best goalies in the league 2 years ago. He WAS one of the worst goalies in the league last year. Would not surpr`ise me if he is either of those things this year.

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Except if you know what was going on in Utah you know that isn't what happened. You know who came back into the lineup at game 57, Sean Durzi, was out from game 4-57. Do you know who came back into their lineup at game 43 after missing 1-43? John Marino. 

They didn't lose confidence in Kesselring, they plugged back in the top 2 RHD they were paying to play those roles. I bet his +/- went down after he went from playing with good defense partners and the teams top 2 scoring lines to playing with plugs. 

The other thing with Kesselring is that he is a late bloomer entering his 3rd NHL season and just coming into his own.

You can’t count on a bunch of individual players getting better the way Adams has, but history teaches us that generally, careers take certain paths and players of Kesselring’s age and experience (and Power’s and Byram’s) are likely to get better.

 

Edited 45 minutes ago by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

56 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Except if you know what was going on in Utah you know that isn't what happened. You know who came back into the lineup at game 57, Sean Durzi, was out from game 4-57. Do you know who came back into their lineup at game 43 after missing 1-43? John Marino. 

They didn't lose confidence in Kesselring, they plugged back in the top 2 RHD they were paying to play those roles. I bet his +/- went down after he went from playing with good defense partners and the teams top 2 scoring lines to playing with plugs. 

That may be a partial explanation but getting reduced to 12-13 minutes in many games in the last 1/3 of the season means more is going on, especially when Ian Cole is skating 20 minutes a game.

Edited 7 minutes ago by GASabresIUFAN