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The athletics model disagrees with us. Speaking strictly from the players out/players in perspective it says Buffalo improved more than all but 6 teams

7. Buffalo Sabres

Net Rating added: +9

In: Josh Doan, Justin Danforth, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins, Alex Lyon
Out: JJ Peterka, Sam Lafferty, Connor Clifton, Jacob Bernard-Docker

There are a lot of folks who haven’t been thrilled with Buffalo’s offseason and that’s understandable. For the third straight year, it feels like it’s been time to push the chips in, spend some money and gun for a playoff spot. Instead, the Sabres made depth moves and shipped off a true top-six scorer without addressing the void afterward.

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It feels like a wasted opportunity, which probably makes Buffalo’s placement here seem out of touch with reality.

Maybe it is — betting on the Sabres has been a terrible idea for over a decade. But maybe this is the year Buffalo does turn the corner, thanks to internal jumps buoyed by cleaned-up depth.

Josh Doan is not as good as JJ Peterka. That’s a downgrade without question. But his underrated defensive game compared to Peterka’s issues without the puck does mean the gap might not be as large as their point totals suggest. Add more Justin Danforth and less Beck Malenstyn on the fourth line and it’s possible the Sabres can cover up the loss in the aggregate. There is arguably enough young, developing forward depth to sustain a Peterka-sized loss.

The more important factor, though, is that the jump from Connor Clifton to Michael Kesselring is substantially larger than the drop from Peterka to Doan. Buffalo’s defense corps was a major weakness last season, one that Kesselring’s presence can help fix. He did well in a top-pair role when Utah ran into injuries last season, enough to believe he’s a true top-four defenseman. Pair him with Owen Power and Buffalo’s top four looks genuinely decent for the first time in a long time.

The addition of Conor Timmins should help with things as well. He showed some promise in an elevated role with Pittsburgh, enough to believe he can form an actually good third pair with the defensively stout Mattias Samuelsson.Timmins isn’t much, but he’s probably a better option than what Buffalo was toiling with last year in the same role. 

Defensive depth is something this team has been missing for a while. If everything goes according to plan after this offseason, it’ll finally be a source of strength for Buffalo. And that could be what changes everything for this team. The Sabres have gone from one good pair led by Rasmus Dahlin to potentially three

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Posted
21 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The athletics model disagrees with us. Speaking strictly from the players out/players in perspective it says Buffalo improved more than all but 6 teams

7. Buffalo Sabres

Net Rating added: +9

In: Josh Doan, Justin Danforth, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins, Alex Lyon
Out: JJ Peterka, Sam Lafferty, Connor Clifton, Jacob Bernard-Docker

There are a lot of folks who haven’t been thrilled with Buffalo’s offseason and that’s understandable. For the third straight year, it feels like it’s been time to push the chips in, spend some money and gun for a playoff spot. Instead, the Sabres made depth moves and shipped off a true top-six scorer without addressing the void afterward.

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It feels like a wasted opportunity, which probably makes Buffalo’s placement here seem out of touch with reality.

Maybe it is — betting on the Sabres has been a terrible idea for over a decade. But maybe this is the year Buffalo does turn the corner, thanks to internal jumps buoyed by cleaned-up depth.

Josh Doan is not as good as JJ Peterka. That’s a downgrade without question. But his underrated defensive game compared to Peterka’s issues without the puck does mean the gap might not be as large as their point totals suggest. Add more Justin Danforth and less Beck Malenstyn on the fourth line and it’s possible the Sabres can cover up the loss in the aggregate. There is arguably enough young, developing forward depth to sustain a Peterka-sized loss.

The more important factor, though, is that the jump from Connor Clifton to Michael Kesselring is substantially larger than the drop from Peterka to Doan. Buffalo’s defense corps was a major weakness last season, one that Kesselring’s presence can help fix. He did well in a top-pair role when Utah ran into injuries last season, enough to believe he’s a true top-four defenseman. Pair him with Owen Power and Buffalo’s top four looks genuinely decent for the first time in a long time.

The addition of Conor Timmins should help with things as well. He showed some promise in an elevated role with Pittsburgh, enough to believe he can form an actually good third pair with the defensively stout Mattias Samuelsson.Timmins isn’t much, but he’s probably a better option than what Buffalo was toiling with last year in the same role. 

Defensive depth is something this team has been missing for a while. If everything goes according to plan after this offseason, it’ll finally be a source of strength for Buffalo. And that could be what changes everything for this team. The Sabres have gone from one good pair led by Rasmus Dahlin to potentially three

Defensively stout Mattias Samuelsson?  
 

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Posted
18 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This post is not funny or insightful.  It’s frankly rude and insulting.  Blocked.

Give the guy a break. He mostly comes here to get his rocks off by unnecessarily dropping two-dollar* words.

*This is the phrase (denomination) I heard growing up. Indexed for inflation, we may need to call them twenty-dollar words.

Posted
21 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm not saying I agree, I just find an outside take interesting. 

Which teams are the most improved.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6496153/2025/07/16/nhl-most-improved-2025/

"7. Buffalo Sabres

Net Rating added: +9

In: Josh Doan, Justin Danforth, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins, Alex Lyon

Out: JJ Peterka, Sam Lafferty, Connor Clifton, Jacob Bernard-Docker

There are a lot of folks who haven’t been thrilled with Buffalo’s offseason and that’s understandable. For the third straight year, it feels like it’s been time to push the chips in, spend some money and gun for a playoff spot. Instead, the Sabres made depth moves and shipped off a true top-six scorer without addressing the void afterward.

It feels like a wasted opportunity, which probably makes Buffalo’s placement here seem out of touch with reality.

Maybe it is — betting on the Sabres has been a terrible idea for over a decade. But maybe this is the year Buffalo does turn the corner, thanks to internal jumps buoyed by cleaned-up depth.

Josh Doan is not as good as JJ Peterka. That’s a downgrade without question. But his underrated defensive game compared to Peterka’s issues without the puck does mean the gap might not be as large as their point totals suggest. Add more Justin Danforth and less Beck Malenstyn on the fourth line and it’s possible the Sabres can cover up the loss in the aggregate. There is arguably enough young, developing forward depth to sustain a Peterka-sized loss.

The more important factor, though, is that the jump from Connor Clifton to Michael Kesselring is substantially larger than the drop from Peterka to Doan. Buffalo’s defense corps was a major weakness last season, one that Kesselring’s presence can help fix. He did well in a top-pair role when Utah ran into injuries last season, enough to believe he’s a true top-four defenseman. Pair him with Owen Power and Buffalo’s top four looks genuinely decent for the first time in a long time.

The addition of Conor Timmins should help with things as well. He showed some promise in an elevated role with Pittsburgh, enough to believe he can form an actually good third pair with the defensively stout Mattias Samuelsson. Timmins isn’t much, but he’s probably a better option than what Buffalo was toiling with last year in the same role. 

Defensive depth is something this team has been missing for a while. If everything goes according to plan after this offseason, it’ll finally be a source of strength for Buffalo. And that could be what changes everything for this team. The Sabres have gone from one good pair led by Rasmus Dahlin to potentially three." - Dom Luszczyszyn

*Note that Norris for Cozens isn't a part of this because it happened at the deadline. 

 

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The athletics model disagrees with us. Speaking strictly from the players out/players in perspective it says Buffalo improved more than all but 6 teams

7. Buffalo Sabres

Net Rating added: +9

In: Josh Doan, Justin Danforth, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins, Alex Lyon
Out: JJ Peterka, Sam Lafferty, Connor Clifton, Jacob Bernard-Docker

There are a lot of folks who haven’t been thrilled with Buffalo’s offseason and that’s understandable. For the third straight year, it feels like it’s been time to push the chips in, spend some money and gun for a playoff spot. Instead, the Sabres made depth moves and shipped off a true top-six scorer without addressing the void afterward.

ADVERTISEMENT

It feels like a wasted opportunity, which probably makes Buffalo’s placement here seem out of touch with reality.

Maybe it is — betting on the Sabres has been a terrible idea for over a decade. But maybe this is the year Buffalo does turn the corner, thanks to internal jumps buoyed by cleaned-up depth.

Josh Doan is not as good as JJ Peterka. That’s a downgrade without question. But his underrated defensive game compared to Peterka’s issues without the puck does mean the gap might not be as large as their point totals suggest. Add more Justin Danforth and less Beck Malenstyn on the fourth line and it’s possible the Sabres can cover up the loss in the aggregate. There is arguably enough young, developing forward depth to sustain a Peterka-sized loss.

The more important factor, though, is that the jump from Connor Clifton to Michael Kesselring is substantially larger than the drop from Peterka to Doan. Buffalo’s defense corps was a major weakness last season, one that Kesselring’s presence can help fix. He did well in a top-pair role when Utah ran into injuries last season, enough to believe he’s a true top-four defenseman. Pair him with Owen Power and Buffalo’s top four looks genuinely decent for the first time in a long time.

The addition of Conor Timmins should help with things as well. He showed some promise in an elevated role with Pittsburgh, enough to believe he can form an actually good third pair with the defensively stout Mattias Samuelsson.Timmins isn’t much, but he’s probably a better option than what Buffalo was toiling with last year in the same role. 

Defensive depth is something this team has been missing for a while. If everything goes according to plan after this offseason, it’ll finally be a source of strength for Buffalo. And that could be what changes everything for this team. The Sabres have gone from one good pair led by Rasmus Dahlin to potentially three

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Posted
12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The model the piece is based on ranks Samuelsson in the 46th percentile defensively 

So, just below average?

I know we’ve all learned to hate on the guy based at least on eye test.  I wonder if deeper stats support just below average?

I really hate that I fell hard for this guy based on his rookie season and he seems to have plateaued or even regressed since then.

Posted
4 hours ago, dudacek said:

The athletics model disagrees with us. Speaking strictly from the players out/players in perspective it says Buffalo improved more than all but 6 teams

7. Buffalo Sabres

Net Rating added: +9

In: Josh Doan, Justin Danforth, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins, Alex Lyon
Out: JJ Peterka, Sam Lafferty, Connor Clifton, Jacob Bernard-Docker

There are a lot of folks who haven’t been thrilled with Buffalo’s offseason and that’s understandable. For the third straight year, it feels like it’s been time to push the chips in, spend some money and gun for a playoff spot. Instead, the Sabres made depth moves and shipped off a true top-six scorer without addressing the void afterward.

ADVERTISEMENT

It feels like a wasted opportunity, which probably makes Buffalo’s placement here seem out of touch with reality.

Maybe it is — betting on the Sabres has been a terrible idea for over a decade. But maybe this is the year Buffalo does turn the corner, thanks to internal jumps buoyed by cleaned-up depth.

Josh Doan is not as good as JJ Peterka. That’s a downgrade without question. But his underrated defensive game compared to Peterka’s issues without the puck does mean the gap might not be as large as their point totals suggest. Add more Justin Danforth and less Beck Malenstyn on the fourth line and it’s possible the Sabres can cover up the loss in the aggregate. There is arguably enough young, developing forward depth to sustain a Peterka-sized loss.

The more important factor, though, is that the jump from Connor Clifton to Michael Kesselring is substantially larger than the drop from Peterka to Doan. Buffalo’s defense corps was a major weakness last season, one that Kesselring’s presence can help fix. He did well in a top-pair role when Utah ran into injuries last season, enough to believe he’s a true top-four defenseman. Pair him with Owen Power and Buffalo’s top four looks genuinely decent for the first time in a long time.

The addition of Conor Timmins should help with things as well. He showed some promise in an elevated role with Pittsburgh, enough to believe he can form an actually good third pair with the defensively stout Mattias Samuelsson.Timmins isn’t much, but he’s probably a better option than what Buffalo was toiling with last year in the same role. 

Defensive depth is something this team has been missing for a while. If everything goes according to plan after this offseason, it’ll finally be a source of strength for Buffalo. And that could be what changes everything for this team. The Sabres have gone from one good pair led by Rasmus Dahlin to potentially three

All this is moot unless the goaltending plays well and guys like Norris, Samuelsson, Quinn and Greenway stay healthy and contribute.  It couldn't hurt if Kesselring can move up from a 3rd pairing D to a full time 2nd pairing D who has chemistry with Power, plus Benson and Kulich step up to replace the lost goals from JJP.  I'm sure all this happen.  I might also win the lottery.

Posted
34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

All this is moot unless the goaltending plays well and guys like Norris, Samuelsson, Quinn and Greenway stay healthy and contribute.  It couldn't hurt if Kesselring can move up from a 3rd pairing D to a full time 2nd pairing D who has chemistry with Power, plus Benson and Kulich step up to replace the lost goals from JJP.  I'm sure all this happen.  I might also win the lottery.

Personally don't see Samuelsson nor Greenway as being nearly as important as the rest of what you've mentioned.

Muel is (or should be) their 5th or 6th defender and Greenway will be middle 6 (likely 3rd line, though Ruff might mix stuff up) the 45 games they'll get from him.

 

Expecting the Quinn we saw down the stretch is closer to what we'll get than the one that was totally lost at the beginning of last year.  But it stinks that they haven't added at least 1 more forward to let his staying healthy and contributing being roughly as important as Muel and Greenway will be.  (A nice surprise if they do pan out, but completely unexpected and not overly critical in the grand scheme.  They need him to look like the guy he was turning into before getting injured twice.)

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

All this is moot unless the goaltending plays well and guys like Norris, Samuelsson, Quinn and Greenway stay healthy and contribute.  It couldn't hurt if Kesselring can move up from a 3rd pairing D to a full time 2nd pairing D who has chemistry with Power, plus Benson and Kulich step up to replace the lost goals from JJP.  I'm sure all this happen.  I might also win the lottery.

You can’t forget that JJ, as a young player was through with his development and at his ceiling, and that the young players we have still are only just scraping the surface of their development - can’t forget that variable

Edited by Thorny
Posted
Just now, Thorny said:

You can’t forget that JJ, as a young player was through with his development and at his ceiling, and that the young players we have still are only just scraping the surface of their development - can’t forget that variable  

or the variable of the piss poor coaching staff limiting any real improvement.  

Truthfully if everything goes right this team could be good.  That would mean improvement on both special teams, UPL plays like he did 2 years ago, Power, Byram, Samuelsson all improve defensively, Kesselring and Timmins make the 2nd and 3rd pairs viable, Norris stays healthy and scores, Benson, Kulich and Quinn all improve offensively and the 4th line doesn't get crushed each time they step on the ice like last year.  That's a great deal of what ifs.  Impossible? No, but really really difficult. 

The proof will be in the pudding.  The teams needs to score about 260 goals and give up 245 or less. 

Posted
1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

or the variable of the piss poor coaching staff limiting any real improvement.  

Truthfully if everything goes right this team could be good.  That would mean improvement on both special teams, UPL plays like he did 2 years ago, Power, Byram, Samuelsson all improve defensively, Kesselring and Timmins make the 2nd and 3rd pairs viable, Norris stays healthy and scores, Benson, Kulich and Quinn all improve offensively and the 4th line doesn't get crushed each time they step on the ice like last year.  That's a great deal of what ifs.  Impossible? No, but really really difficult. 

The proof will be in the pudding.  The teams needs to score about 260 goals and give up 245 or less. 

does the +9 refer to standings points? So the projection is an Eichel-esque WAR from Kesselring to the tune of missing the playoffs by (79+9) by 7 points? 

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, ponokasabre said:

Dakota Joshua from Van to Toronto for a 4th round pick

That one makes me angry assuming the Sabres are done.

Edited by dudacek
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

or the variable of the piss poor coaching staff limiting any real improvement.  

Truthfully if everything goes right this team could be good.  That would mean improvement on both special teams, UPL plays like he did 2 years ago, Power, Byram, Samuelsson all improve defensively, Kesselring and Timmins make the 2nd and 3rd pairs viable, Norris stays healthy and scores, Benson, Kulich and Quinn all improve offensively and the 4th line doesn't get crushed each time they step on the ice like last year.  That's a great deal of what ifs.  Impossible? No, but really really difficult. 

The proof will be in the pudding.  The teams needs to score about 260 goals and give up 245 or less. 

Oh ya I definitely agree though we’ve been in “could be good” territory for a while. Unfortunately it just doesn’t matter anymore - at least in terms of re-writing the assessment of Adams 

They absolutely will EVENTUALLY win. It’s well past the point of any current long tenured staff member getting credit for it 

Edited by Thorny
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

does the +9 refer to standings points? So the projection is an Eichel-esque WAR from Kesselring to the tune of missing the playoffs by (79+9) by 7 points? 

at a +15 goal differential the team should make the playoffs.  Very few teams +10 or better miss the playoffs.  It happens occasionally, but very often.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

at a +15 differential the team should make the playoffs.  Very few teams +10 or better miss the playoffs.  It happens occasionally, but very often.

I’m asking if it refers to standings points or goal differential 

We were -20 so a +9 would get us to -11

Edited by Thorny
Posted
Just now, Thorny said:

I’m asking if it refers to standings points or goal differential 

goal differential.  Get to a +15 goal differential and the team should make the playoffs regardless of pts or place in the standings.

Posted
1 minute ago, Thorny said:

does the +9 refer to standings points? So the projection is an Eichel-esque WAR from Kesselring to the tune of missing the playoffs by (79+9) by 7 points? 

Their analytics model gives each player a ranking based on his overall impact.

Its built on tangible measurements but I’m not sure it represents anything tangible like points in the standings, more like how valuable one guy is relative to the league mean.

For example, Dahlin is the Sabres most effective player at +21, Bryson the worst at -13

Posted
1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

goal differential.  Get to a +15 goal differential and the team should make the playoffs regardless of pts or place in the standings.

I think the way it works is you get to a certain amount of points/place in standings and the team makes it regardless of differential haha, but I take your meaning 

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Their analytics model gives each player a ranking based on his overall impact.

Its built on tangible measurements but I’m not sure it represents anything tangible like points in the standings, more like how valuable one guy is relative to the league mean.

For example, Dahlin is the Sabres most effective player at +21, Bryson the worst at -13

But when it says “net rating added” does that refer to plus minus? 

Posted
3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

goal differential.  Get to a +15 goal differential and the team should make the playoffs regardless of pts or place in the standings.

Anyways; if you are right it means we needed to improve by 35 goals. Have we done that? 

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