Chad D: expect a Byram trade at or around the draft

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You are focusing your attention on the right issue/question. The meaningful issue isn't whether a player going out or coming in is better or not. You can be dispatching a more talented player for a lesser talented player and still come out improving your team because it upgrades a more needed position. One of my primary criticisms of the GM is that he has a scout's mentality in evaluating players without the broader perspective required for a GM position that should have a bigger picture perspective. He simply is not adept at getting the right pieces to stitch together to form a coherent and stronger roster. His accumulated record demonstrates that point. He's had five years on the job. He deconstructed the roster and positioned us on the bottom of the rankings. Where are we after five years of applying his shortsighted methodology?

You're missing a key element. Does Casey Mittelstadt on the Sabres make them better? I'd argue no. So yes we can be mad that Mitts wasn't traded for something we need, but if Byram gets us that, that's good.

[Archie Lee]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You're missing a key element. Does Casey Mittelstadt on the Sabres make them better? I'd argue no. So yes we can be mad that Mitts wasn't traded for something we need, but if Byram gets us that, that's good.

Correct.  But our GM has acknowledged he had no plan for Byram, and our record regressed with Byram (not his fault), and we now, it seems, have to trade Byram and we don’t know what we are getting for him. Sometimes there are no winners in a trade. It’s early to conclude on this one, in my view.  

[Pimlach]

Who won the Mitts-Byram trade is strange hill to die on.  The Sabres as a team did not improve in the standings, they regressed.   Colorado had another post season that disappointed them, but that Sabres fans would absolutely love to experience.  

It looks to me like Byram is the better player of the two.  That’s my opinion based on comparing two players on different teams that play different positions.   As @LGR4GM stated, it appears Byram has more value today than Mitts had (he was traded for 3rd line player Charlie Coyle), supporting the notion that Byram is the better player.     

Did the trade improve the Sabres?  That answer unfortunately is NO.  The Sabres finished lower in the standings with 5 fewer points, but certainly there were other factors at play as well.  Where Byram would fit was always a question.  Did we hurt our center spline by removing Mitts was also a question.  

Mitts clearly did not cut it as a 2C in Colorado,  and while Byram was effective when playing with Dahlin (as all other Sabres defensemen were) he did not much bring otherwise.  He (and others) did not step up when Dahlin was hurt which is when it was needed most.   A big team need is still there -  a solid and steady defense first player at RHD to compliment Power or Dahlin.   Adams, always late to the party, said himself that he wasn’t sure how to use Byram.    

A big consideration, since Mitts is a center, is to evaluate the play of the Sabres centers.   Lindy most definitely considered the center spline to be a weak spot on the team.  There was much line shuffling because of the center play.  Cozens folded under the weight of the “A” and the 2C role and was moved out.  Even after bringing in McLeod in a separate deal, who was good, the center spline was an area of concern and it still is.   

Getting the better player is nice.  Now they have to somehow leverage that to improve the roster.  

At some point this was to about improving the team, and not “winning trades”.  
 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by Pimlach

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Wake me up when Adams wins a playoff berth. Winning or losing an individual trade means nothing. It’s building a roster that can compete and win that means everything and Adams has failed miserably at it for 5 straight years.

I also haven’t read a strong argument that he’s won any trades, ftr

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

I always thought that winning or losing a trade, was measured by some nebulous combination of individual player performance and team success. For example, people have long concluded that St. Louis won the O’Reilly trade. They won the cup and the Sabres have missed the playoffs every year since. Yet, Thompson is making a case that he was the best player in that deal (he may have a few 50 goal seasons in him coming). 

I think Byram is a better hockey player than Mitts. Neither team reached their post-trade goals. But we will need a better return than Charlie Coyle, who we could use, for me to give the clear victory to Adams. 

It’s because trades aren’t a zero sum game. Trades are also a means to an end, not a valuable metric in and of themselves. if winning trades is a thing, yes the blues won the trade because the trade facilitated their goal. Two teams can win a trade, 2 teams can lose. A good example of a trade both teams lost is Byram Mittelstadt 

To your point, the sabres have already lost the ROR deal: that’s another thing people don’t tabulate properly - time isn’t a negligible competent in trades lol. Our goal when trading ROR wasn’t to get a guy who was better in 5 years. The trade torpedoed an entire regime and set the team back years 

If you can analyze that swap as a “win”, it’s a pyrrhic victory at best but in reality with an awareness for context, it can only be construed as a colossal error 

Edited 20 hours ago by Thorny

[dudacek]

Ryan McLeod might be a better player than Matt Savoie right now, but in no way did McLeod make the Sabres a better team.

And now the Sabres are up against the cap and McLeod is going to demand a contract that he probably won't be capable of living up to as a 3C, or be forced to play over his head as a 2C, while the Sabres move out better players to keep him.

Nothing Adams does is right and the team is doomed to fail so long as he remains.

 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ryan McLeod might be a better player than Matt Savoie right now, but in no way did McLeod make the Sabres a better team.

And now the Sabres are up against the cap and McLeod is going to demand a contract that he probably won't be capable of living up to as a 3C, or be forced to play over his head as a 2C, while the Sabres move out better players to keep him.

Nothing Adams does is right and the team is doomed to fail so long as he remains.

 

McLeod made them better than they would have been with Savoie

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I also haven’t read a strong argument that he’s won any trades, ftr

 

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

McLeod made them better than they would have been with Savoie

I stand corrected, he won this one 

[DarthEbriate]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ryan McLeod might be a better player than Matt Savoie right now, but in no way did McLeod make the Sabres a better team.

And now the Sabres are up against the cap and McLeod is going to demand a contract that he probably won't be capable of living up to as a 3C, or be forced to play over his head as a 2C, while the Sabres move out better players to keep him.

Nothing Adams does is right and the team is doomed to fail so long as he remains.

McLeod is best cast as a 3C. But I'd say he wasn't in over his head when temporarily elevated (caveat: in the regular season, on this roster). He was solid backfilling for TNT on the California trip and I'd argue he should have been the 2C in terms of ice time from November onwards, while moving Cozens down the lineup/to wing, rather than sending McLeod down the lineup (between Malenstyn/Lafferty/NAK where he surprisingly scored no goals for awhile). Ruff should have realized that way before the trade deadline -- he did and commented on the poor center play of TNT/Cozens -- but there was Cozens still playing center in the starting lineup the entire time (except one game 11/1).

Per the bold, based on the duplicity of Dahlin/Power/Byram, Byram may be a better player than McLeod, but McLeod has a role on the team that no one else currently fills. Byram can't get to play his preferred role because of two #1 picks (one of whom carries everyone, the other who... Byram may be better than, but won't be given a chance to show).

[LGR4GM]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ryan McLeod might be a better player than Matt Savoie right now, but in no way did McLeod make the Sabres a better team.

And now the Sabres are up against the cap and McLeod is going to demand a contract that he probably won't be capable of living up to as a 3C, or be forced to play over his head as a 2C, while the Sabres move out better players to keep him.

Nothing Adams does is right and the team is doomed to fail so long as he remains.

 

Are you arguing we should have kept Savoie?

Also, I'd argue McLeod did make the Sabres better. 

41 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s because trades aren’t a zero sum game. Trades are also a means to an end, not a valuable metric in and of themselves. if winning trades is a thing, yes the blues won the trade because the trade facilitated their goal. Two teams can win a trade, 2 teams can lose. A good example of a trade both teams lost is Byram Mittelstadt 

To your point, the sabres have already lost the ROR deal: that’s another thing people don’t tabulate properly - time isn’t a negligible competent in trades lol. Our goal when trading ROR wasn’t to get a guy who was better in 5 years. The trade torpedoed an entire regime and set the team back years 

If you can analyze that swap as a “win”, it’s a pyrrhic victory at best but in reality with an awareness for context, it can only be construed as a colossal error 

Trading Mitts wasn't a colossal error. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Are you arguing we should have kept Savoie?

Also, I'd argue McLeod did make the Sabres better. 

Trading Mitts wasn't a colossal error. 

Didn’t say it was. ROR, on the other hand 

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

You're missing a key element. Does Casey Mittelstadt on the Sabres make them better? I'd argue no. So yes we can be mad that Mitts wasn't traded for something we need, but if Byram gets us that, that's good.

For last year I would say yes. The year before when Tage was hurt and moved to the wing on a lower line and Mitts moved up to the top line he played well and the production of the line was still a high yield line.

[Mr. Allen]

This thread took a turn…. 

[bob_sauve28]

6 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

This thread took a turn…. 

So you are saying Savoie will eventually be better than McLovin, I mean McLeod? Why?? 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Didn’t say it was. ROR, on the other hand 

Both teams didn't lose the Mitts Byram trade. That's illogical on its face. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Are you arguing we should have kept Savoie?

I was applying the "Byram wasn't a good trade" logic I read above to the McLeod trade.

I've always maintained the Mittelstadt trade needed to be judged in the context of how they backfilled his spot.

And I think I'd do Mitts and Savoie for Byram and McLeod 10 times out of 10, both on a value level and on a roster building level.

The Sabres dropped in the standings because Quinn, Power, Cozens proved woefully incapable of the roles they were given, UPL backslid precipitously and the coaching change had the opposite effect of what they intended.

if people want to pretend Byram's +11 at nearly 23 minutes a night represents a screen door on submarine that helped sink the season, they're welcome to that opinion.

But its wrong.

Edited 18 hours ago by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

For last year I would say yes. The year before when Tage was hurt and moved to the wing on a lower line and Mitts moved up to the top line he played well and the production of the line was still a high yield line.

No he doesn't. He's a defensive liability. The 2024/25 Sabres wouldn't be better with Mittelstadt. 

Just now, dudacek said:

I was applying the "Byram wasn't a good trade" logic I read above to the McLeod trade.

I've always maintained the Mittelstadt trade needed to be judged in the context of how they backfilled his spot.

And I think I'd do Mitts and Savoie for Byram and McLeod 10 times out of 10, both on a value level and on a roster building level.

The Sabres dropped in the standings because Quinn, Power, Cozens proved woefully incapable of the roles they were given, UPL backslid precipitously and the coaching change had the opposite effect of what they intended.

if you want to pretend Byram's +11 at nearly 23 minutes a night represents a screen door on submarine that helped sink the season, they're welcome to that opinion.

But its wrong.

Personally I think all the hang wringing over Mittelstadt is nonsense. He played 1 good stretch here and was otherwise worse than McLeod. We're in agreement. 

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

Ok, but it doesn't matter if you admit it.  That's not what makes it true. 

You can still hate KA and acknowledge the obvious.

You know (and don't take this personal, it's just a general feeling I have), the bottom line is I don't really give a flying F if KA won a trade or got more for one guy than another one and we can argue those things but really who cares? He didn't and can't seem to construct a winning roster despite having multiple years on the job, multiple picks and multiple opportunities. Who cares if one guy wins an award or one guy is better than a previous guy, Adams is in year 6 now and the team is still garbage. That's all that matters to me. 

[shrader]

Just like Edmonton didn’t trade for Savoie for just 2024-25, Buffalo didn’t do that for McLeod either. I sure do love one year trade assessments. I’m not making any statement about winners and losers when I say that the O’Reilly trade sure as hell looks a lot different today than it did in 2019. 

[bob_sauve28]

We sure as hell lost the trade that sent Brayden McNabb away. 

 

That was just stupid 

[DarthEbriate]

6 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

We sure as hell lost the trade that sent Brayden McNabb away. 

 

That was just stupid 

The Sabres side of the McNabb trade tree ended (DesLauriers, Fasching) as such:

D Zach Redmond played 3 games for Buffalo, 3 seasons in total for Rochester, and left for the DEL.

D Brandon Hickey played parts of 2 seasons in Rochester and is still in the AHL today with Henderson.

RW Mike Sislo never played for Rochester and retired in 2020.

 

This is how McNabb ends, this is how McNabb ends, this is how McNabb ends. Not with a Redmond, nor with a Hickey.

 

Fun fact: With the two 2nd round picks Los Angeles ALSO received, they selected Alex Lintuniemi in 2014 and Eric Cernak in 2015.

Funner fact: The next pick taken after Lintuniemi was the Sabres with pick #1 of the third round: Jonas Johanson. The 4th pick of that 2014 3rd round: Brandon Hickey!

But before you feel bad, don't worry about the picks the Sabres took in the 2014 draft. If they had had an additional 2nd it wouldn't have mattered because this was the draft of Lemieux, Cornel, and Karabacek. And in 2015, they took Brendan Guhle. Just lots of hits in the second those seasons.

[sabremike]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I was applying the "Byram wasn't a good trade" logic I read above to the McLeod trade.

I've always maintained the Mittelstadt trade needed to be judged in the context of how they backfilled his spot.

And I think I'd do Mitts and Savoie for Byram and McLeod 10 times out of 10, both on a value level and on a roster building level.

The Sabres dropped in the standings because Quinn, Power, Cozens proved woefully incapable of the roles they were given, UPL backslid precipitously and the coaching change had the opposite effect of what they intended.

if people want to pretend Byram's +11 at nearly 23 minutes a night represents a screen door on submarine that helped sink the season, they're welcome to that opinion.

But its wrong.

Meaningless number: +11

Meaningful number: 0-11

[LGR4GM]

31 minutes ago, shrader said:

Just like Edmonton didn’t trade for Savoie for just 2024-25, Buffalo didn’t do that for McLeod either. I sure do love one year trade assessments. I’m not making any statement about winners and losers when I say that the O’Reilly trade sure as hell looks a lot different today than it did in 2019. 

No it does not. St Louis won the Cup. 

[shrader]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No it does not. St Louis won the Cup. 

Selective reading sure is fun, isn’t it?

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, sabremike said:

Meaningless number: +11

Meaningful number: 0-11

I’m not entirely sure what 0-11 represents, but if you are trying to say Byram’s play is directly responsible for a team losing streak and has no bearing on goals scored when he’s on the ice, there’s no point talking.