2025 NHL Entry Draft Thread, Sabres Draft 9th

[DarthEbriate]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm unsure what his current injury is. I think it's separate from his stress fracture. 

The thing is, a healthy McQueen might have been in the running for 1st overall. You'd have to really dig into those medicals because 6'5" centers with his package of skills are rare. 

No one seems to be stating whether the injuries are related. Lower body could also be related to the back.

I'm just risk-averse with the injury history for a team that employs Norris, Greenway, and Samuelsson, and doesn't use LTIR or spend to the cap.

[kas23]

6 hours ago, ... said:

 

Based on recent studies specifically looking at NHL players and Achilles tendon ruptures, the picture regarding recovery rates is more nuanced than a simple "poor record."

Here's a breakdown of the findings:

High Rate of Return to Play: Studies indicate a high rate of return to play (RTP) for NHL players after Achilles tendon repair. One study found that 14 out of 15 NHL players (93%) with Achilles tendon tears returned to play. Another older study reported a 78.9% RTP rate.  

Performance Impact: While the RTP rate is high, the impact on performance is where the nuance lies.

Some recent research suggests no significant change in offensive, defensive, or overall performance-based metrics when comparing pre-injury performance to performance in the first and second years post-injury for those who returned.  

However, other studies on professional athletes across multiple sports (including NHL) have sometimes shown a decrease in games played, play time, and performance metrics in the first year or two after return, although performance might normalize closer to pre-injury levels by the second year post-injury for those who successfully return long-term. There's also evidence suggesting a bimodal distribution – some players don't return to their prior level, while others can perform comparably to uninjured players after two years.

Comparison to Other Sports: NHL players appear to have a higher RTP rate after Achilles rupture compared to players in sports like the NBA and NFL, where rates of failure to return to play have been reported to be significantly higher (e.g., 20-30% or more).

Timeframe for Recovery: Recovery is consistently described as a long and arduous process, typically taking several months (at least three to five months, sometimes longer) before returning to on-ice activities, even with surgical repair and rigorous rehabilitation.

In conclusion: While the statement that "players with Achilles injuries don’t have a good record of fully recovering" holds true in a general sense across professional sports, recent data specifically on the NHL suggests a high likelihood of players returning to play. The question of whether they fully recover to their exact pre-injury performance level is where studies show varying results, with some suggesting performance returns to baseline after a couple of years, while others indicate potential long-term impacts or a portion of players never quite getting back to their previous form.

Therefore, while many NHL players do successfully return, the concern raised in the paragraph about a player being a "question mark" regarding their same level of performance as before the injury is a valid one, despite the relatively high return-to-play rate in hockey compared to some other sports.

I’ve read the article. Even posted it on here about a month ago. Here’s the most recent Achilles tears: Duclair, Quinn, Pacioretty. Not an inspiring list. There’s also Kempny, Isac Lundestrom, Knyznov over the past 10 years. Not a common injury. Lastly there’s our own Beck Malestyn, which would argue such an injury doesn’t always have to negatively affect speed. 

[LGR4GM]

Wheeler put Helenius in a tier with Martin for ranking centers across the last 3 drafts. Something for ppl to think about. 

"A fourth tier would include Brady Martin (likely at the front of it), Dalibor Dvorsky, Konsta Helenius, Michael Hage, etc."

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6342331/2025/05/09/matthew-schaefer-porter-martone-nhl-draft-2025-mailbag/

 

[Brawndo]

15 hours ago, shrader said:

I wonder how different the two actually are.  Paging @Brawndo, @Brawndo you have a call on the white courtesy phone.

Peyton Krebs would be probably be the best comparison. He suffered a laceration to Achilles tendon about a month before the draft. 

[FrenchConnection44]

We might still have not ended up doing well in the lottery, but I still think we would regret not giving ourselves the chance to draft in the top 4-5, especially with a kid like Martone. 

If the end of season success, when there was no pressure, doesn't translate to next season, just as it hasn't in the past, all the "this is great, we are winning games," Feels many were having will mean zero. Except more frustration. Personally, I take no solace in meaningless regular season wins. 

Btw, here's ESPN's take on Martone (some here were arguing he doesn't have physicality to go with his frame; I just don't agree with that). 

4. Porter Martone
RW, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)

The 6-3 right winger projects as a high-end second-line player with a competitive streak reminiscent of Corey Perry and Tom Wilson. A big, physical forward, Martone is a dual-threat offensive player with ability to score on his own and facilitate. His competitive nature will make him an effective agitator, and he will physically impose himself on opponents. He needs to hone his competitiveness and physicality to increase his effectiveness, and adjust his skating posture to become a more efficient skater.

His unique combination of scoring ability, size and hard skill make him a very attractive prospect. While his most confident projection is a top-six forward, Martone has a legitimate chance to become a top-line winger if his skating improves.

If McQueen falls to us, which he could due to the injury, that will be a high risk / high reward player given his lack of playing time and the injury but that too could be a stroke of good fortune--though I suspect someone will take a shot before he gets to us. But, dang, picking 9th just sucks relative to how the team played most of the seasons (which was a bottom 4-5 squad). 

Edited 21 hours ago by FrenchConnection44

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

We might still have not ended up doing well in the lottery, but I still think we would regret not giving ourselves the chance to draft in the top 4-5, especially with a kid like Martone. 

If the end of season success, when there was no pressure, doesn't translate to next season, just as it hasn't in the past, all the "this is great, we are winning games," Feels many were having will mean zero. Except more frustration. Personally, I take no solace in meaningless regular season wins. 

Btw, here's ESPN's take on Martone (some here were arguing he doesn't have physicality to go with his frame; I just don't agree with that). 

4. Porter Martone
RW, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)

The 6-3 right winger projects as a high-end second-line player with a competitive streak reminiscent of Corey Perry and Tom Wilson. A big, physical forward, Martone is a dual-threat offensive player with ability to score on his own and facilitate. His competitive nature will make him an effective agitator, and he will physically impose himself on opponents. He needs to hone his competitiveness and physicality to increase his effectiveness, and adjust his skating posture to become a more efficient skater.

His unique combination of scoring ability, size and hard skill make him a very attractive prospect. While his most confident projection is a top-six forward, Martone has a legitimate chance to become a top-line winger if his skating improves.

If McQueen falls to us, which he could due to the injury, that will be a high risk / high reward player given his lack of playing time and the injury but that too could be a stroke of good fortune--though I suspect someone will take a shot before he gets to us. But, dang, picking 9th just sucks relative to how the team played most of the seasons (which was a bottom 4-5 squad). 

He has physicality, it's not consistent and I don't see Tom Wilson at all when I watch him. 

[LGR4GM]

Since ik Mrtka will come up a bunch and I wouldn't be surprised if the Sabres suck at drafting and pick him 9th overall. 

"Blessed with incredible size, reach, and stopping potential, Mrtka failed to dominate in any of the three zones. His lack of physicality was note-worthy.

If a team is expecting a bruiser, they’ll be sorely disappointed."

- Cam Robinson on Mrtka post u18s

https://www.eliteprospects.com/news/2025-u18-world-championship/risers-and-fallers-from-the-2025-u18-world-championships

 

[LGR4GM]

And from the same article about Frondell "The powerful pivot was unable to create much in the way of offense. He failed to make plays, instead choosing to dump pucks in. His weapon of a shot was invisible."

Now 1 tournament doesn't make or break a guy and Frondell was good in the Allsveskan playoffs, his team got promoted, but impo I don't see enough offensive creation from Frondell. There's not enough chaos creation. 

[LGR4GM]

And what 1 NHL scout said about Martin's physical game:

"And for at least one NHL scout, it’ll be a separating skill in the NHL as well.

"He's not just the best hitter in junior. He'd be one of the best in the NHL right now.""

[LGR4GM]

I'm going to throw out another option at 9 that we've not talked about much, Justin Carbonneau. 

His game needs to mature but the guy has every tool in his box. He's a 6'1" 192lb winger, with excellent skating, a good shot, strong work ethic, and maybe the best hands in the draft. Hus biggest criticism is turning his game from high event to high possession meaning better play selection. That's not uncommon for Jr players with more skills and ideas than puck touches, although, he gets a lot of touches. 

Topped his team in pts by 8 and in goals by 18. They lost in the first round because the opposition decided to take Carbonneau away and he managed just 3g. He was really the engine for his team. 

Carbonneau needs work on getting his ideas in the right order but the fact he's got the underlying manipulation skills needed is good. He also has an excellent shot that makes those fakes with his amazing hands something defense reacts to. Carbonneau is a bit high risk high reward. The risk, he never quite adapts to a pro game and ends up more of a pp specialist you can run on your 3rd line. The reward, he's a 40g, 45a rw with edge who's defensively engaged with skills to spare. 

Carbonneau will likely remain in my top 10. There's games where he adapts and plays a more pro style and I think he's smart enough to know how to translate his game. Give him another year in Jr and 2yrs in the AHL, I think you'll have a hell of a winger. 

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Since ik Mrtka will come up a bunch and I wouldn't be surprised if the Sabres suck at drafting and pick him 9th overall. 

"Blessed with incredible size, reach, and stopping potential, Mrtka failed to dominate in any of the three zones. His lack of physicality was note-worthy.

If a team is expecting a bruiser, they’ll be sorely disappointed."

- Cam Robinson on Mrtka post u18s

https://www.eliteprospects.com/news/2025-u18-world-championship/risers-and-fallers-from-the-2025-u18-world-championships

 

He's big and safe and he's right-handed. He's not a top-10 pick -- there's nothing that pops.

[dudacek]

Don’t worry about Frondell, they said.

He sucks but he’ll be gone well before 9, they said.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Don’t worry about Frondell, they said.

He sucks but he’ll be gone well before 9, they said.

Terrified of that being the pick. I need a guy who demands the puck more. 

[Flashsabre]

I think Martin has become my favorite pick but I think he’s gone before 9.

Id roll the dice on McQueen if there or trade the pick If I could get a piece to help now.