Sabres have allowed the fewest goals in the NHL since January 1st

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

There's a difference. The numbers aren't cherry picked to fit my argument... The number is about the top two players ARE my argument. 

I don't get how you don't understand that. My whole argument is based on the things that coaching can impact, shots on goal, production by most people on the roster... Everything is very similar to last year except for those two guys shooting percentage.

So again, you're saying I'm cherry picking taking those two guys out of the statistics... Again.... You are proving my point... The coaching isn't that much different except for those two guys... And those two guys. It's not about their shots on goal, it's not about even where the shots are coming from... It is simply about the shooting percentage.

It goes back to the analogy of a sick patient.... You don't say the patient is sick so let's treat every single thing we know.... You try to identify the one small factor that is wrong. Production, shooting percentage, by those two guys is the one thing that is much more different than everything else. Again, I'm not cherry picking stats. I'm doing the opposite. I'm isolating one or two particular stats that are different than everything else

Not THAT much different from a team that DIDN’T make the playoffs AFTER you remove 2 key players from the equation doesn’t make a compelling argument for a coach retention in and of itself. Not when we sit in 25th place. You aren’t making a strong argument for anything, that’s what I’m saying - I get it, I just don’t think it’s a very strong argument  

Edited February 24 by Thorny

[matter2003]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Question: Is this a result of the Sabres playing fewer games? I know we had played more games than other teams and now we are about even in number of games played 

Well yes and no...on a goals allowed/game basis they are 4th since January 1st, but the difference is very very marginal. Jets are first allowing 2.10 goals per game, Sabres are 4th allowing 2.16 goals per game. The top 4 teams are all within .06 goals allowed/game of each other. So make no mistake, they have been VERY good during that time frame at decreasing scoring against. They are 7th over that time frame at shots allowed/game.

Edited February 24 by matter2003

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

There's a difference. The numbers aren't cherry picked to fit my argument... The number is about the top two players ARE my argument. 

I don't get how you don't understand that. My whole argument is based on the things that coaching can impact, shots on goal, production by most people on the roster... Everything is very similar to last year except for those two guys shooting percentage.

So again, you're saying I'm cherry picking taking those two guys out of the statistics... Again.... You are proving my point... The coaching isn't that much different except for those two guys... And those two guys. It's not about their shots on goal, it's not about even where the shots are coming from... It is simply about the shooting percentage.

It goes back to the analogy of a sick patient.... You don't say the patient is sick so let's treat every single thing we know.... You try to identify the one small factor that is wrong. Production, shooting percentage, by those two guys is the one thing that is much more different than everything else. Again, I'm not cherry picking stats. I'm doing the opposite. I'm isolating one or two particular stats that are different than everything else

Also your analogy is terrible stuff 

Generally a patient presents for one issue. There is absolute no universe in which a poor hockey team generally has only one key issue. Just like a good hockey doesn’t have only one defining strength.

[mjd1001]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Not THAT much different from a team that DIDN’T make the playoffs AFTER you remove 2 key players from the equation doesn’t make a compelling argument for a coach retention in and of itself. Not when we sit in 25th place. You aren’t making a strong argument for anything, that’s what I’m saying - I get it, I just don’t think it’s a very strong argument  

Maybe the problem was he wasn't a good coach last year. If you want to tell me that he was a below average coach last year, and he was only saved by a career year from Cozens and Thompson, I will listen to that argument. 

I honestly never played or coached hockey at anything close to a professional level. So maybe he's just not good overall. Last year the power play was very good, but it was realistically good because of one-timers by Tage and VO.

So again, the point of my argument is I honestly think he is doing a slightly better coaching job than last year. So if people were happy with his coaching job last year, I don't see why they want him gone this year.

Again, if you think he was bad last year, wanted him gone last year... And think that he is still bad this year, that is an argument I won't go back and forth too much on. I disagree with that slightly, but I will respect that argument. My whole point is again, I'm simply comparing his coaching last year to this year. I don't see it as considerably worse than last year.

Edited February 24 by mjd1001

[Thorny]

Essentially: 

you are attempting to determine what “ails” the team but keep measuring it relative to how it performed last year. Which is all well and good, but your conclusions are going to bridge the gap to THAT result when in reality we need to be looking at what “ails” the team relative to those teams making the playoffs (at a minimum)

Your solutions aren’t a fix, they are a partial one 

Edited February 24 by Thorny

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Based on my original post in your response... I don't agree with everything you said but I do agree with a lot of it, probably more than half.

My view is the number one thing this team needs is a really really good veteran Defenseman. Someone 27 to 30 years old... Legit top four,  Maybe a top two guy. Those are very very hard to get. Especially with a lot of them having no trade clauses. I'm not saying it's easy but that one is on Adams to get done. If he doesn't, I think the defenseman on this team would grow into a very good defense group, but it would take a couple of years. A veteran right now accelerates that.

And as for the schedule being weak recently.... Well all of the factors I brought up, Tage and Cozens not producing, they've been there the whole year. Against good teams, against bad teams. The stats I quoted were for the entire year, about those those two at least, not just the past couple of weeks.

If anything, the week schedule recently supports my point of view.... As Cozens has only started producing against the weaker team's recently... His numbers were even worse before the run of easier teams in the past month or so.

The home versus road record, that has baffled me. But again I don't think Granato is coaching worse this year. They had the same issue last year when they were one point away from being a playoff team. If it's an issue, it's not because he is coaching worse than last year... It's he's doing the same thing as last year.

KO I think should be gone replaced with someone younger. Zengus, I'm perfectly happy with his play and I'd bring him back for another year. I'm not caught up on the performance of a fourth line, but two new, young guys, with Zemgus, I'm happy with that

I would feel better with some changes to the coaching staff. Switch up some assistance, overpay and bring in an assistant who's really good. My point is I don't think it's all on Granato, and I don't think switching him out for a retread of what's available out there instantly makes this team better. Trade prospects to get a top four defenseman, bring some youth into the fourth line, bring in that experienced asst. coach, and I think you're 80% of the way there to doing what you need to do.

I've granted that Granato may be objectively coaching somewhat better this year. One can focus on any number of granular issues and perform analytics in the hope of discovering a secret formula. The holistic, intuitive evaluation is almost always likely to be more accurate, even when one cannot pin it down in the manner favored by analytics. (And surely, there are analytics that could be chosen to accommodate a different narrative.) Of course, it isn't all on Granato. I personally think he's a very nice fella who is probably more suited to be nurturing young players in the AHL. "Retread" is a loaded word with obvious connotations. One could replace that with "experienced coach with a track record of winning" and say the same thing with an entirely different coloration. I'd take Berube right now over Granato, and it isn't a terribly hard decision.

Regardless, I don't expect that. I am hoping KA will feel enough heat to spend some prospect cash for needed, ready-to-play upgrades. Alas, it will come too late to alter the trajectory of another failed season.

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Maybe the problem was he wasn't a good coach last year. If you want to tell me that he was a below average coach last year, and he was only saved by a career year from Cozens and Thompson, I will listen to that argument. 

I honestly never played or coached hockey at anything close to a professional level. So maybe he's just not good overall. Last year the power play was very good, but it was realistically good because of one-timers by Tage and VO.

So again, the point of my argument is I honestly think he is doing a slightly better coaching job than last year. So if people were happy with his coaching job last year, I don't see why they want him gone this year.

Again, if you think he was bad last year, wanted him gone last year... And think that he is still bad this year, that is an argument. I won't go back and forth too much on. I disagree with that slightly, but I will respect that argument.

I’m not a huge advocate for firing him. I think it makes very defendable sense, but more so to me I just want Adams to have the coach he wants and for him to be held to reasonable standards as the orchestrator of all this 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The team is defensively better, but I think that is mostly on improved play from UPL over the course of the season.  Too bad he and the other goalies weren’t giving us this level of performance early in the year.  It might have changed the course of the season.  

As to Cozens and TNT, beware the career year shooting %.  Cozens shot 14.7% last season for a career 8% or less shooter his other seasons.  This year he is back to 7.9%.  TNT shot 15% and 15.9% the last two seasons. It looked like he had taken a huge scoring step permanently.  Alas no. Before his breakout he was an under 10% shooter and he is back down to 9.7%.  

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I've granted that Granato may be objectively coaching somewhat better this year. One can focus on any number of granular issues and perform analytics in the hope of discovering a secret formula. The holistic, intuitive evaluation is almost always likely to be more accurate, even when one cannot pin it down in the manner favored by analytics. (And surely, there are analytics that could be chosen to accommodate a different narrative.) Of course, it isn't all on Granato. I personally think he's a very nice fella who is probably more suited to be nurturing young players in the AHL. "Retread" is a loaded word with obvious connotations. One could replace that with "experienced coach with a track record of winning" and say the same thing with an entirely different coloration. I'd take Berube right now over Granato, and it isn't a terribly hard decision.

Regardless, I don't expect that. I am hoping KA will feel enough heat to spend some prospect cash for needed, ready-to-play upgrades. Alas, it will come too late to alter the trajectory of another failed season.

The amount of talking we do on this will kind of be funny given that it’s very likely we don’t see a major change in the manner in which KA conducts his business. I do think we see a run back of most things and I actually also kind of think some of the numbers are pointing potentially to a reasonably strong stretch (+) in garbage time (-) which would be fun. But may ultimately make the aforementioned KA strategy even more likely 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The amount of talking we do on this will kind of be funny given that it’s very likely we don’t see a major change in the manner in which KA conducts his business. I do think we see a run back of most things and I actually also kind of think some of the numbers are pointing potentially to a reasonably strong stretch (+) in garbage time (-) which would be fun. But may ultimately make the aforementioned KA strategy even more likely 

Ah, yes, there's even a dark cloud in the silver lining.

[Believer]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’m not a huge advocate for firing him. I think it makes very defendable sense, but more so to me I just want Adams to have the coach he wants and for him to be held to reasonable standards as the orchestrator of all this 

Maybe it’s just me, but Granato’s post game mood seemed flat after the last two games… when I expected him to be excited by the wins… 

Wonder if he was given a message and put on super secret probation by Pegula after the player fan protest?

Edited February 24 by Believer

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Ah, yes, there's even a dark cloud in the silver lining.

Better to have it than not. It’s just usually not predictive for the following season. I’m kinda interested to see how the deadline is played out 

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, Believer said:

Maybe it’s just me, but Granato’s post game mood seemed flat after the last two games… when I expected him to be excited by the wins… 

Wonder if he was given a message and put on super secret probation by Pegula after the player fan protest?

Hard to say.

With Tampa stinking it up lately the standings didn’t look quite as frightening to my eye this morning as they have of late. Maybe it’s false hope but we also play Tampa coming up. Maybe we can still make a run

[Thorny]

With yesterday’s win, according to Moneypuck our playoff odds jumped to 4.6% from 1.9%.

If it jumps by that factor 3 more times we’d be above 50% 😄

Edited February 24 by Thorny

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Better to have it than not. It’s just usually not predictive for the following season. I’m kinda interested to see how the deadline is played out 

I don't think there will be much KA action at the trade deadline. Maybe a marginal transaction? What I will be more focused on is what happens in the offseason. I expect that Olofsson will be gone and Okposo will retire. So, there will be roster spots to fill. I'm hoping for a deal that will add a Tuch like talent, big and fast, and more, to better round out the talent mix. Assuming that the goalie issue has been resolved with UPL and Levi staffing that position, I expect some action by the GM after the season. 

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I don't think there will be much KA action at the trade deadline. Maybe a marginal transaction? What I will be more focused on is what happens in the offseason. I expect that Olofsson will be gone and Okposo will retire. So, there will be roster spots to fill. I'm hoping for a deal that will add a Tuch like talent, big and fast, and more, to better round out the talent mix. Assuming that the goalie issue has been resolved with UPL and Levi staffing that position, I expect some action by the GM after the season. 

Greenway turned out to be an impressive add from KA. I wouldn’t be suprised if we see something a bit more impactful than marginal. But who knows 

Also I think a backup goalie for next season should be strongly considered. You need 2 guys and unless we are absolutely sure Levi is ready to provide 30 + games of quality backup play next season it would be a risk to make the same mistake twice in a row 

Edited February 24 by Thorny

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I don't think there will be much KA action at the trade deadline. Maybe a marginal transaction? What I will be more focused on is what happens in the offseason. I expect that Olofsson will be gone and Okposo will retire. So, there will be roster spots to fill. I'm hoping for a deal that will add a Tuch like talent, big and fast, and more, to better round out the talent mix. Assuming that the goalie issue has been resolved with UPL and Levi staffing that position, I expect some action by the GM after the season. 

 I'm hoping for a bit more than marginal, but the tepid response is a KA specialty. He sure as hell better add a top 4D as well in the off-season. 

[Ogelthorpe]

Great, and they are still 9 points out. 

Edited February 24 by Ogelthorpe

[Thorny]

Just now, Ogelthorpe said:

Great, and they are still 12 points out. 

Technically we are 9 back with a game in hand on the team currently pacing for 8th

[PASabreFan]

6 minutes ago, Ogelthorpe said:

Great, and they are still 12 points out. 

Well, nine.

The problem (in addition to expecting the Sabres to go red-hot) is that four teams ahead of the Sabres are also trying to knock off the Bolts.

[JohnC]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

 I'm hoping for a bit more than marginal, but the tepid response is a KA specialty. He sure as hell better add a top 4D as well in the off-season. 

I'm not too concerned about the Sabre action at the tradeline. I'm looking for some substantive moves in the offseason. If we don't get it, I will be very disappointed. 

[JohnC]

25 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Greenway turned out to be an impressive add from KA. I wouldn’t be suprised if we see something a bit more impactful than marginal. But who knows 

Also I think a backup goalie for next season should be strongly considered. You need 2 guys and unless we are absolutely sure Levi is ready to provide 30 + games of quality backup play next season it would be a risk to make the same mistake twice in a row 

If we come away with a Greenway type deal at the deadline, I would be ecstatic. I'm more focused on the offseason because I expect some roster spots will need to be filled. The GM has some prospect and draft assets to parlay. Will he? I'm not sure.  

With respect to the goalie issue, I really don't expect much action. I see UPL and Levi as our two goalies. If Comrie does not return, I expect a similar caliber of player to add to the mix. 

[PASabreFan]

Looking at discrete areas of performance is not the way to go. A major issue with this team is of course talent and roster construction. But as we saw last year they were close to achieving a very modest goal. And right now should be much closer to achieving that goal than they currently are.

The bigger problem IMHO is that under merely modest expectations, a bunch of guys spit out the bit. They wilted. And to make that flaw in the team even more dire, they couldn't deal with a spattering of boos at home when they were stinking up the joint and LITERALLY one night (maybe even just a period) where a strong minority of patrons called for the coach's head in a near historic drubbing at the hands of one of the worst and possibly THE worst team in the league. Just before xmas to boot.

You've got to weed those guys out. Okposo takes care of itself. Dahlin said he was bothered by the chant. If he in any sense led or agreed to the salute revolt, he has to go. Also he's dumb and overrated and I don't like the cut of his dull jib.

Caffeine... Ask for it by name.

Edited February 24 by PASabreFan

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Gatorman0519 said:

We’ve played a lot of bad teams the second half of the season as well. 

In the stretch between and including the Columbus games (12/30/23-2/23/24), the Sabres played 7 games against playoff teams and 14 games against non-playoff teams (aka the UPL hot stretch).

They're 11-10 in that time. [2-5 vs. playoff teams with both wins coming against LAK; 9-5 vs. non] This was the time to make up ground and they didn't. They played NHL .500 hockey.

In the next 20 games, the schedule flips. 13 playoff teams and 7 non-playoff teams.

We'll see a few things: 1) Does the team defense still have good shot numbers?, 2) Can UPL maintain consistently above-average play?, 3) Can they keep playing .500 hockey?

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't want to dismiss everything you said. It's easy enough to acknowledge that for whatever reasons, Tage and Cozens are having regression seasons, and that has significantly affected offensive numbers. Losing Quinn for most of the year is also a factor, as a leap forward was anticipated, and quite possible.

All that said, those who point to a weak schedule in much of the new year are correct. The lackluster numbers for a few key players on offense does not address the poor home record, the slow starts, the habitual hole of giving up the first goal, not to mention the obvious deficit of grit and toughness, a lack of snarl that permits the other team to consistently bully the Sabres. 

Granato may indeed be marginally coaching better this year, but he appears to be enabling a culture of entitlement and hostility towards a long-suffering fan base that has plenty of reason to voice their displeasure. If your job allows you to play a game for millions of dollars, accepting that element of the implied contract ought not to be too onerous a burden.

All that said, the addition of a genuine top 4 D and some grit vets with more in the tank than the Latvian locomotive and KO could have been the missing ingredients in a year where UPL has emerged as a surprising stalwart goalie. That is on KA, who is always hedging on expectations, and pushing into the distant future the winning that is long overdue.

So last year the team was strong at X and poor at Y and Z.    This year strong at Y and poor at X and Z.  

Do they look like a playoff team?  Not to me.  They look like a team that is getting very good goaltending, has trouble scoring, winning most of the winnable games lately, and that plays poorly at home and good on the road.  Lets se how they do at home against the Canes as they try once again to win 3 in a row for the first time this season. 

I suspect they will play well on the road games in Miami and in Tampa.  

Put up a 5 game winning streak and then lets talk about the improvements.