The Sabres at 18 games.

[GASabresIUFAN]

With 12% of the season in the books, the Sabres stand at 5-5.  That’s good for 6th in the Atlantic, and 4th in the wild card standings in the very rugged Eastern Conference.

Sabres sit 10th in GF with 32 (16th in GF/gp at 3.20) and 16th in GA at 29 (12th in GA/gp at 2.89) for a +3 differential.   Despite the terrible 1st game (and the Calg game) and team is trending in a positive direction on defense and in goal.  The offense is also coming along with 19 goals in the last 4 games.  

The Sabres special teams are the reverse of last year.  The PP is 29th at 10% while the PK is 5th at 90%.  Last season the PP was 9th at 23.5% and the PK a horrific 73% (28th).  

The Sabres are getting contributions from most of the forwards.  Skinner leads with 10 pts (5,5), followed by TNT with 9 (5,4), Mitts with 9 (3,6), Cozens with 7 (3,4), and Tuch with 7 (1,6).  JJP (4 goals) and Greenway have added 5 points each.  Dahlin leads the D with 9 points (2,7), followed by Power with 6 (1,5) and Joki with 5 (0,5).

The Sabres’ victory over the Flyers was the first 2 game winning streak. 

Biggest surprises so far?  Biggest plus? Biggest minus?  

The minuses so far have been Clifton, more injuries, and the PP.  I also don’t think the coaching staff had the team ready to open the season.  I also think DG ran Levi into the ground by starting him 4 straight to start the season. Krebs is playing his way to the pressbox.

The plusses - Mitts’ continues to improve, JJP’s development, Greenway’s all around play, Joki’s improvement, and the fine steady play of Eric Johnson

Biggest surprises - UPL’s excellent play recently, Tuch’s early season struggles, and KA juggling of Benson and Savoie.  

Things KA still needs to do.  I’d like to see KA added another decent depth D.  While I hope UPL continues his fine play. I’ve seen the show before last season.  If I were KA I’d still keep checking the veteran goalie market.

Other things I’d like to see:
KA needs to find away to move VO. He is an unnecessary distraction at this point and deserves a chance to play somewhere.  With Biro, Rousek, Rosen, Savoie and Kulich all playing well in Buffalo or Rochester, we have plenty of forwards to cover any injury.  Eat the cap hit and move on already.   

It’s also past time to rethink the PP. 

Overall I think the team is rounding into form.  This is a playoff team IMHO.  I think we are better than Fla and Ottawa. I also think Montreal and Det will back track from their hot starts.  

Edited November 21, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

In fine position after 10 to ensure their focus remains on, and that they challenge for, the hard-line expectation of making the playoffs.

[Thorny]

As arguably his biggest supporter I’d like to see a little bit more from Dahlin, even though he’s been good. T-7th in points for D is the minimum I’d expect, frankly, and I’d like to see that plus minus bump up too from -1, thought realistically that should come along with the team 

He leads the team in assists, but the bar is Norris nomination ie a top 3 league D. He’s that good. He’s pacing for 73 points just like last year, I think he has more in him for a ceiling.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Thorny

[matter2003]

They are starting to figure it out and starting to understand how to create transition and offense from a more defensive team approach.  Expect them to continue trending upwards.

[Mustache of God]

We're 10 games into the season and decided to take a look at stats to date: https://www.nhl.com/sabres/stats

Some observations:

• Skinner leads the team with 10 points (5+5), 3 players have 9 points (Mitts, Dahlin, Thompson)
• The only two skaters to not register a point yet are Bryson (2 games) & Oloffson (6 games)
• Owen Power leads the team with in the plus category with +9
• Connor Clifton leads the team in the minus category with a -6
• I only see 3 PP goals notated. Last year our power play was electric and last year it balanced out the atrocious PK. This year we've flipped a switch. The sputtering special teams play is going to cost us games. It needs to get going.
• UPL (4 gp) has the highest sv% of .926, followed by Comrie (3gp) .914 and Levi has fared the worst with .892. Team defense has been getting stronger as we've gotten into the season so it'll be interesting to see what Levi can do with the team playing well in front of him. 
• Brandon Biro is shooting at 100% 2 for 2.
• Peyton Krebs has played all 10 games and has only taken 5 shots and put up a lone assist. I can see him becoming the new whipping boy of the team if he doesn't get his game going.
• Jost's faceoff performance is 52.6% which is the highest amongst forwards who probably have taken multiple face-offs. Tage (45.6), Mitts (40.8) and Zemgus (38.5) need to be better.

 

 

[matter2003]

2 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

We're 10 games into the season and decided to take a look at stats to date: https://www.nhl.com/sabres/stats

Some observations:

• Skinner leads the team with 10 points (5+5), 3 players have 9 points (Mitts, Dahlin, Thompson)
• The only two skaters to not register a point yet are Bryson (2 games) & Oloffson (6 games)
• Owen Power leads the team with in the plus category with +9
• Connor Clifton leads the team in the minus category with a -6
• I only see 3 PP goals notated. Last year our power play was electric and last year it balanced out the atrocious PK. This year we've flipped a switch. The sputtering special teams play is going to cost us games. It needs to get going.
• UPL (4 gp) has the highest sv% of .926, followed by Comrie (3gp) .914 and Levi has fared the worst with .892. Team defense has been getting stronger as we've gotten into the season so it'll be interesting to see what Levi can do with the team playing well in front of him. 
• Brandon Biro is shooting at 100% 2 for 2.
• Peyton Krebs has played all 10 games and has only taken 5 shots and put up a lone assist. I can see him becoming the new whipping boy of the team if he doesn't get his game going.
• Jost's faceoff performance is 52.6% which is the highest amongst forwards who probably have taken multiple face-offs. Tage (45.6), Mitts (40.8) and Zemgus (38.5) need to be better.

 

 

 

You realize the PK being so good is going to do far more to help us than the PP being bad is going to hurt us right?  They will eventually get the PP rocking again, they have far too much talent not to.  The PK at 90% has been amazing and they have looked the part too.

[TheAud]

Biro needs to shoot more often!

[Mustache of God]

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

You realize the PK being so good is going to do far more to help us than the PP being bad is going to hurt us right?  They will eventually get the PP rocking again, they have far too much talent not to.  The PK at 90% has been amazing and they have looked the part too.

Yeah but I want the power play from last year combined with the PK from this year.

[matter2003]

2 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

Yeah but I want the power play from last year combined with the PK from this year.

It's a work in progress...trying to diversify it, became too easy to defend last year.

[Randall Flagg]

The Sabres are being held afloat by goaltending and penalty killing, as we all expected. 

[matter2003]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

The Sabres are being held afloat by goaltending and penalty killing, as we all expected. 

I wouldn't say that.  The offense and transition game is starting to kick into gear once they have figured out how to play team defense while not completely eliminating their offense.

[msw2112]

I was concerned about the slow start, but I agree that they are starting to figure it out and rounding into form with more than enough time left to move up into playoff position.  The play of UPL and Comrie (pre-injury) have been good - better than expected - and the the PK has been a revelation.  There's too much talent on the PP for it to stay as poor as it's been.  There's still too much running around in their own end in the 3rd period of games, but they are keeping more of the chances on the perimeter and the goaltending has been better.  With expectations so high coming in, I expected them to come bursting out of the gate and they certainly didn't, but they were not having much "puck luck" in the first few games (due to hot goalies, or simply hitting posts and cross bars, pucks jumping off sticks, etc.), but the scoring is starting to come around, while the overall defense/PK/goaltending is better, so they should be fine.

Edited November 2, 2023 by msw2112

[msw2112]

Eric Johnson and Jordan Greenway have proven to be great additions for overall team defense and penalty killing.  Credit to the "pro personnel" scouting and analytics folks who identified quality players to fill very specific needs.  And neither guy costs a fortune to have on the roster.

[PerreaultForever]

Johnson and Greenway are working out that's for sure. It's also getting clear that Krebs isn't going to be very much. Face offs are horrendous. The D has tightened up. I wonder if that mantra came in with the back up (so to speak) goalie becoming the started goalie. Sort of a necessary thing to help him out. Happens on a lot of teams so I suspect we shifted to that as well. It should help long term. 

Also clear that Olofsson is going to Europe next year. All your dreams of trading him for something out the window. 

I'm surprised at how bad Clifton has been and am surprised by how decent Jokiharju has been. The rest is pretty much as expected. 

[Night Train]

1 hour ago, Mustache of God said:

• Peyton Krebs has played all 10 games and has only taken 5 shots and put up a lone assist. I can see him becoming the new whipping boy of the team if he doesn't get his game going.

Next to UPL, he's McDavid. 

[mjd1001]

Time on ice is interesting, might be the best way to get a look at how the coaches think players are doing:

Defense:

Dahlin 24:13, Power 23, Samuelsson 21:09...then a huge drop to Jokiharju 16:50, Johnson 15:47,  Clifton 15:29.   I'd still like to see Dahlin a bit lower.

Dahlin and Power are really the only D-men used on the PP all year. No one else has even been given a full PP shift. 

Johnson and Samuelsson dominate the PK ice time. Power and Clifton with some use. Dahlin basically not used on PK, which I am 100% fine with. Give him that time on the bench to rest.

 

Forwards:

No-one up front with more than 19 1/2 minutes. Spread out pretty evenly  Thompson leads with 19:23  Tuch around 18. Skinner 17:22. Mitts at 16:22. Greenway rounds out the top 5.  Most of the top forward around the league are well over 20 minutes per game, with the top guys on each team usually 21-22:30 per game.

Cozens surprisingly only 15:50 per game.

PP: Skinner, Thompson, Cozens and Tuch lead the way by far. They each have more than double the time of anyone else.  

PK:  Greenway and Thompson lead the way (guess Granato likes the strategy of the forwards up high just hold your spot so lets get the tall guys with the big reach out there to disrupt the puck movement)  Girgensons and Okposo and Tuch come next, no one else really used.

Even strength, no one is getting more ice time than Mitts. Skinner is a half minute behind..EVERY other forward is at least a minute per game behind per game.

 

I go back to the PK.  PK minutes are dominated by Thompson, Greenway, Johnson, and Samuelsson.  Two 6'6" guy up front and Two 6'4" on the back end.  I can't help to think the strategy on the PK is 'chase the puck less' and more 'hold your position and use your size/wingspan/reach' to disrupt the lanes for puck movement.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

As arguably his biggest supporter I’d like to see a little bit more from Dahlin, even though he’s been good. T-7th in points for D is the minimum I’d expect, frankly, and I’d like to see that plus minus bump up too from -1, thought realistically that should come along with the team 

He leads the team in assists, but the bar is Norris nomination ie a top 3 league D. He’s that good. He’s pacing for 73 points just like last year, I think he has more in him for a ceiling.

ENGs and SHGA are the only reason Dahlin is a minus.  Personally, really don't get too concerned about that stat unless it is freakishly high or horrendously low.

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Time on ice is interesting, might be the best way to get a look at how the coaches think players are doing:

Defense:

Dahlin 24:13, Power 23, Samuelsson 21:09...then a huge drop to Jokiharju 16:50, Johnson 15:47,  Clifton 15:29.   I'd still like to see Dahlin a bit lower.

Dahlin and Power are really the only D-men used on the PP all year. No one else has even been given a full PP shift. 

Johnson and Samuelsson dominate the PK ice time. Power and Clifton with some use. Dahlin basically not used on PK, which I am 100% fine with. Give him that time on the bench to rest.

 

Forwards:

No-one up front with more than 19 1/2 minutes. Spread out pretty evenly  Thompson leads with 19:23  Tuch around 18. Skinner 17:22. Mitts at 16:22. Greenway rounds out the top 5.  Most of the top forward around the league are well over 20 minutes per game, with the top guys on each team usually 21-22:30 per game.

Cozens surprisingly only 15:50 per game.

PP: Skinner, Thompson, Cozens and Tuch lead the way by far. They each have more than double the time of anyone else.  

PK:  Greenway and Thompson lead the way (guess Granato likes the strategy of the forwards up high just hold your spot so lets get the tall guys with the big reach out there to disrupt the puck movement)  Girgensons and Okposo and Tuch come next, no one else really used.

Even strength, no one is getting more ice time than Mitts. Skinner is a half minute behind..EVERY other forward is at least a minute per game behind per game.

 

I go back to the PK.  PK minutes are dominated by Thompson, Greenway, Johnson, and Samuelsson.  Two 6'6" guy up front and Two 6'4" on the back end.  I can't help to think the strategy on the PK is 'chase the puck less' and more 'hold your position and use your size/wingspan/reach' to disrupt the lanes for puck movement.

On PK, Greenway said the plan is "patience."  They don't chase guys to the boards nor behind the net.  But with the long reach of everybody on that primary unit, they still generate pressure even though they aren't chasing.

Am totally with you on being fine with Dahlin not getting any PK time.  Even if they get a rush on the PK, he likely isn't joining it; so give him a breather and let him come back fresh to help generate offense and keep things settled at 5v5.

Still would like to see them alter the personnel on the PP, but just don't see it happening due to internal politics.  (Granato ISN'T pulling Skinner off the top unit (and yes, he's actually scored on the PP which very few other Sabres can claim; but how many could claim they've scored on the PP if it was more efficient?) nor is he taking Okposo off the 2nd unit.)  Also, am very surprised that no opponent has picked off Power's drop pass as he uses that play, literally, every single time he brings the puck up the ice.  Somebody is going to jump it and hopefully that will spur the coaches to have him do something, ANYTHING, else. 

Though the PP was ranked in the top 10 last year, it was a steaming pile for almost the entire season minus a roughly 6 week span when it was pretty much unstoppable.  So, really not surprising that it's a steaming pile again even though the players are skilled enough that it SHOULD be very good, if not excellent.  

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

It's also getting clear that Krebs isn't going to be very much.

Last year I thought Krebs might have been the worst forward in the league for the first month of the season. As the year went on, he got better. By the end of the year, I was 'content' with is play.

What has happened this year? I know he is playing the 4th line roll, but he isn't doing that great, and he is bringing nothing.  He has to turn around his game right away somehow, but at this point I agree with many others, just replace him with Jost and this team is better.

Okposo looks shot.  Its not just the lack of production, but he looks one step slower than even last year, he isn't getting to guys on the forecheck like he was last year and he is a step slow to the boards in his own end.  Again, he has the "C", and I'm not sure who from Roch you could replace him with in a 4th line role..but when I watch him, its almost like he is even 'slowing down' Girgensonns.  I'd like to see Girgensons, Jost, and 'someone else' on that 4th line. Is Biro suited for a 4th line checking roll?  Girgs, Jost, and Biro might be better than what they are putting out there now.

Edited November 2, 2023 by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

49 minutes ago, Taro T said:

ENGs and SHGA are the only reason Dahlin is a minus.  Personally, really don't get too concerned about that stat unless it is freakishly high or horrendously low.

Like Power being +9

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

As arguably his biggest supporter I’d like to see a little bit more from Dahlin, even though he’s been good. T-7th in points for D is the minimum I’d expect, frankly, and I’d like to see that plus minus bump up too from -1, thought realistically that should come along with the team 

He leads the team in assists, but the bar is Norris nomination ie a top 3 league D. He’s that good. He’s pacing for 73 points just like last year, I think he has more in him for a ceiling.

Raz points seem almost like a given.  There were points last year where he would almost take over a game.  I don’t think we have seen that this year.

[...]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

On PK, Greenway said the plan is "patience."  They don't chase guys to the boards nor behind the net.  But with the long reach of everybody on that primary unit, they still generate pressure even though they aren't chasing.

Am totally with you on being fine with Dahlin not getting any PK time.  Even if they get a rush on the PK, he likely isn't joining it; so give him a breather and let him come back fresh to help generate offense and keep things settled at 5v5.

Still would like to see them alter the personnel on the PP, but just don't see it happening due to internal politics.  (Granato ISN'T pulling Skinner off the top unit (and yes, he's actually scored on the PP which very few other Sabres can claim; but how many could claim they've scored on the PP if it was more efficient?) nor is he taking Okposo off the 2nd unit.)  Also, am very surprised that no opponent has picked off Power's drop pass as he uses that play, literally, every single time he brings the puck up the ice.  Somebody is going to jump it and hopefully that will spur the coaches to have him do something, ANYTHING, else. 

Though the PP was ranked in the top 10 last year, it was a steaming pile for almost the entire season minus a roughly 6 week span when it was pretty much unstoppable.  So, really not surprising that it's a steaming pile again even though the players are skilled enough that it SHOULD be very good, if not excellent.  

The Sabres' PK is the exact opposite of the PK typically applied to them, which is man-to-man aggressive pressure. So, the opponent is banking on the mistakes from last year where the Sabres will cough up the puck out of panic and/or lack of discipline. That's what they need to work on.

Their entries on the PP have been pretty good and I noticed the past several games they're leaving options for that drop pass, not just from Power, but to anyone bringing the puck up. It's just that Power is often the one bringing the puck back after they lose it in the offensive zone. Anyway, I think that would be difficult to counter since the Sabres do give themselves options for the drop pass on the entries. The opponent is not sure who to anticipate the pass to and if they tried covering all options they'd give the speedy Sabres a 4 or 5-on-2 opportunity for a few seconds while recovering from trying to anticipate the drop pass.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, ... said:

The Sabres' PK is the exact opposite of the PK typically applied to them, which is man-to-man aggressive pressure. So, the opponent is banking on the mistakes from last year where the Sabres will cough up the puck out of panic and/or lack of discipline. That's what they need to work on.

Their entries on the PP have been pretty good and I noticed the past several games they're leaving options for that drop pass, not just from Power, but to anyone bringing the puck up. It's just that Power is often the one bringing the puck back after they lose it in the offensive zone. Anyway, I think that would be difficult to counter since the Sabres do give themselves options for the drop pass on the entries. The opponent is not sure who to anticipate the pass to and if they tried covering all options they'd give the speedy Sabres a 4 or 5-on-2 opportunity for a few seconds while recovering from trying to anticipate the drop pass.

Your observation about the PK is spot on .

On PP1, there are options.  On PP2 it is pretty much exclusively that Power recovers the puck (typically directly, but even if not, it almost always is on his stick at his own blue line) and somewhere between there and the red line, it gets dropped back behind him for the trailing F to pick up.  Cannot recall a single time that was not the PP2's transition/entry.  One of these times and opponent is going to fake the engagement with Power and just pick up the loose puck sitting 10' behind him and will either have a full breakaway or a partial depending upon how unaware he caught the F that was expecting to pick up the loose puck.

Now that Tuch &/or Dahlin are primarily carrying the puck into the zone on PP1, the entries are getting more effective than last year and the 1st 4 or so games.  And they are trying to move the puck around more physically (rather than simply passing from stationary spots hoping to somehow use Levi's Jedi Mind Tricks to move the D from the passing lanes) before passing which should begin to open up passing and shooting lanes and sometimes they do - in the Moe-ray-all game they generated at least 4 scoring chances on one PP in the 2nd but couldn't convert any of them.  But, until the puck starts going into the net, it will remain an extremely frustrating thing to watch; and as the game goes on they tend to have the PP slide back to their old tendencies - stand around, pass around, hope to get Thompson a 1 timer attempt.

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Last year I thought Krebs might have been the worst forward in the league for the first month of the season. As the year went on, he got better. By the end of the year, I was 'content' with is play.

What has happened this year? I know he is playing the 4th line roll, but he isn't doing that great, and he is bringing nothing.  He has to turn around his game right away somehow, but at this point I agree with many others, just replace him with Jost and this team is better.

Okposo looks shot.  Its not just the lack of production, but he looks one step slower than even last year, he isn't getting to guys on the forecheck like he was last year and he is a step slow to the boards in his own end.  Again, he has the "C", and I'm not sure who from Roch you could replace him with in a 4th line role..but when I watch him, its almost like he is even 'slowing down' Girgensonns.  I'd like to see Girgensons, Jost, and 'someone else' on that 4th line. Is Biro suited for a 4th line checking roll?  Girgs, Jost, and Biro might be better than what they are putting out there now.

I said at the time signing Okposo was a sentimental mistake. I got shot down for that idea to say the least but it's clear now, he should retire. Name Tuch captain please. 

Jost has been better than Krebs. Krebs learning curve definitely seems to have flattened or even hit a wall. I think we should go through a Rochester call up rotation until somebody sticks. Biro in the driver's seat at the moment. I would be happy if VO never wears a Sabres game jersey again. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

@mjd1001

TOI is a huge reference point, but comparing them at even strength should be the reference as certain players don’t receive much time on  special teams. For example Mitts is our leading forward at EV at 14:38 with Skinner second at 14:05.  Tuch is 3rd and TNT 4th at 13:11.  It’s pretty clear that Mitts and his line has become our top line at EV.  TNT’s usage is fascinating.  DG loves him on both Special Teams, but not as much as EV.  His EV time is down nearly 1:30 from last year. I wonder if this is a reflection of his poor backchecking and DGs attempt at more balance.  

Cozens’ EV usage is the same as last year.

On Defense, DG has dropped the EV usage of the top 4.  Dahlin is down 30 seconds, Power is down nearly 2 minutes.  Mule is down nearly 30 seconds and Joki is down nearly 2 minutes. 

The 3rd pair is also skating less that last year’s 3rd pair.  I think this a reflection of limiting EJ TOI to keep him healthy and more Special teams time early in the year.