2023-2024 Sabres lineup

[sabresparaavida]

While it is certainly possible that Kevyn Adams is not done, it seems like the majority of the roster is set. I’m curious to hear what people think the Sabres lineup to start the season this year, based on who we have now. There’s been some discussion in other threads, and I thought it deserved its own. 
 

Before the Quinn injury, I was thinking our top 6 would look like it did much of the year last year, with Mitts being 3C filling in for injury wherever needed in the top 6. The bottom 6 filled out with some combination of Girgs/Okposo/Krebs/Greenway/Jost, with Oloffson riding the pine or traded off. Now I think it’s a little more complicated with the Quinn injury, and I can see 3 potential routes they could choose to go with the forward group. 
 

The first would be to just try and keep nearly the same lineup, just bumping up a winger to replace Quinn, and inserting one of Oloffson/Rousek/surprise rookie into the lineup. Something like:

Skinner-TNT-Tuch

JJP-Cozens-Greenway/Oloffson

Greenway/Oloffson/Rousek-Mitts-Jost

Girgs-Krebs-Okposo

 

Unless JJP takes a big step (which he very well could), this puts a ton of pressure on Cozens however, so it would make some sense to try to strengthen the second line some by moving Mitts up, and shifting around the bottom 6 a bit. 
 

Skinner-TNT-Tuch

Mitts-Cozens-JJP

Greenway-Krebs-Rousek/rookie/Oloffson

Girgs-Jost-Okposo

 

The third idea for the forward group, which I’m really curious to see tried with a healthy Tage Thompson, is trying to build 2 legitamite first lines. At the end of last season, Mitts filled in for Tage between Tuch and Skinner. The line did not miss a beat and Mitts was a ppg player from the all star break on. If we kept Mitts with Tuch and Skinner we might be able to have a first line while still having 2 PPG players in Cozens and Tage to put with a promising young player, JJP, who won best forward in the recent world championships (his production there was nearly identical to Cozens before he broke out last year). The top 6 would get pretty even playing time, with either line getting more depending on the night. Something like:

Skinner-Mitts-Tuch

JJP-Cozens-Thompson

Greenway-Krebs-Rousek

Girgs-Jost-Okposo

I definitely would like to see another forward add though, likely on a 1 year, someone who can fit comfortably in the bottom six, as I’m not sure any of Kulich/Savoie/Benson/Rosen are ready for NHL action, and we are a little shallow on depth. 
 

While i’m not sure about which way the forward group will go, I think the D group is even more interesting. I think Granato will try to get out 6 best D on the ice most nights, though we may see Erik Johnson be sat some nights to keep him fresh. The issue lies that our top 3 D are all left handed and our 4-7 D are all right handed. 
Granato doesn’t seem to care too much about handedness, so we could end up keeping Samuelson-Dahlin together. In this case, the defense would probably look something like:

samuelson-Dahlin 

Power-Clifton

Jokiharju-Johnson

stillman-Lybushkin

While this could work, I do think we will run into some issues on the third pair fairly often as I think whoever plays on their off hand will likely struggle. We could see Stillman get onto the third pair, but I’m not really a fan of that. I think because of this problem, we may see an approach that tries to balance out the defense for most of the game, and then concentrate the skill when needed (3rd period, end of periods, etc). This could look like

Dahlin-Clifton

Power-Johnson

Samuelson-Jokiharju

and then, whenever the bench needs to be shortened, dropping to:

Samuelson-Dahlin 

Power-Clifton

The goal would be for Dahlin to get 23+ mins a night, Power and Samuelson 21+,  Clifton 20+, and Erik Johnson for 18 or less. This could work fairly well, but it may be tough to keep chemistry switching up the pairs like that.

 

For goalie, Levi looks like the starter, with UPL and Comrie competing for backup. I expect we will keep only 2 goalies, as I think we will carry 8D and 13F. 
 

So what do y’all think the lines and pairs will  look like? 

Edited July 10, 2023 by sabresparaavida

[Doohickie]

You have a good thought here:  It's not a given that the first line is Skins-Tage-Tuch.  A lot of people assume it will be but there are lots of other pieces to try out.

I remember for a while they rolled out Greenway-Cozens-Thompson.  If Greenway can keep up talent-wise, that line could not only be an offensive juggernaut, it would also be physically intimidating to play against.  I could see them grinding down opposing lines as the game went on.

I would also like to see Donny do a bit more line juggling:  After wearing down the other team with that combo, slide Tage up to 1C late in the game with Tuch and Skins late in the game.  If they're defending a lead, that group could put the nail in the coffin since they'd be such a threat on the rush.

[Thorny]

Nice write up 

considering we essentially ran back the roster, I don’t think we need very much tea leaf reading. expect the lines to look pretty much like last season ie the guys who got a lot of usage will continue to do so. Ie, don’t bump Casey out of your top 6 configs, and dont forget about Jokiharju. I expect they slide Rousek in as the Quinn replacement and jumble the lines as little as possible in doing so: that seemed to be how Granato approached it last year. They went out and got Greenway, he’ll be the big new Top 6 addition.  

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch

Mittelstadt - Cozens - Greenway

Rousek - Krebs - Peterka

Girgensons - Jost - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Power - Clifton

Stillman - Jokiharju

Levi

UPL

(VO, Johnson, Lyubushkin)

...I’d be pretty surprised if it’s much different than that. Basically, it’s a “let’s do it again, but this time, we’ll have more depth on D, and Levi will be our x-factor” set-up. Like people like John have been saying, this strategy has kinda been earmarked for a few years now. We’ll live and die by the Levi timeline and it starts now. Adams didn’t avoid adding to the position at the NHL level in a meaningful way for 3 full years just to go back on it now - the runway has been cleared.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Nice write up 

considering we essentially ran back the roster, I don’t think we need very much tea leaf reading. expect the lines to look pretty much like last season ie the guys who got a lot of usage will continue to do so. Ie, don’t bump Casey out of your top 6 configs, and dont forget about Jokiharju. I expect they slide Rousek in as the Quinn replacement and jumble the lines as little as possible in doing so: that seemed to be how Granato approached it last year. They went out and got Greenway, he’ll be the big new Top 6 addition.  

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch

Mittelstadt - Cozens - Greenway

Rousek - Krebs - Peterka

Girgensons - Jost - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Power - Clifton

Stillman - Jokiharju

Levi

UPL

(VO, Johnson, Lyubushkin)

...I’d be pretty surprised if it’s much different than that. Basically, it’s a “let’s do it again, but this time, we’ll have more depth on D, and Levi will be our x-factor” set-up. Like people like John have been saying, this strategy has kinda been earmarked for a few years now. We’ll live and die by the Levi timeline and it starts now. Adams didn’t avoid adding to the position at the NHL level in a meaningful way for 3 full years just to go back on it now - the runway has been cleared.

Except for your 3rd pairing, that IMHO looks like what they'll start the year with barring additional moves.  Personally expect the 3rd pairing to either by Johnson - Jokiharju (more likely, Granato loves him some Jokiharju) or Johnson - Lyubushkin.  Though Stillman is the only lefty of the bottom 4, he's also IMHO by far the least talented of the 4 (presuming Johnson hasn't fallen off a cliff this summer).

Could also see them flipping Okposo and Rousek if that's just too much youth to saddle Krebs with.  Expect he'll be able to handle that assignment, but if not, that's the likely other switch up.

Would also rather see Comrie as the backup than UPL (higher floor, lower ceiling; but UPL's lower floor becomes scary bad when he scrapes it) if those are the ONLY 2 options; but expect they will run with UPL like you expect.  Comrie does a great job at covering the bottom of the net (ridiculously long legs are a benefit here) and hopefully he won't get into enough games for teams to figure out that bar down is his kryptonite.

Ironically, expect that Quinn being out of the lineup ends up keeping Olofsson out of the lineup more often as either Krebs or Mittelstadt (more probable) fills in for Quinn and Jost draws into the lineup as the 4C; whereas if Krebs is 4C and Mitts 3C they could be rotating Rousek and Olofsson depending upon the opponent and Jost is either the full time 13F or in Ra-cha-cha if they run with 8D.

And will be interesting to see if any of Kulich, Savoie, Benson, or some wild card has a better camp than Rousek and knocks him out of the lineup.  Have Rousek pencilled in right now, but could see somebody else step up and steal his spot.

[dudacek]

I’m holding out hope for another move or two, but I’m more or less on board with @Thorny‘s take, save Stillman - there’s no way he’s starting over Johnson and Boosh given what I saw from Granato last year and heard from him last week.

Who gets the Quinn slot to start is the biggest question. It should be Olofsson based on ability, but it should not be Olofsson based on fit.

Having Vic in the lineup might really push Donnie to scramble things up.

Would a Jost Girgs Vic spare parts line survive judicious 4th line matchups, with the latter 2 getting their ice on special teams?

Because I don’t mind Kyle Peyton JJ as line 3.

[Randall Flagg]

Jost being top 12 before game one has me legitimately miserable 

Don't go on vacation just yet kevyn

[Night Train]

I want Krebs with better players. He's a great passer after checking the opposition and digging/stealing the puck. JMO.

[Thorny]

35 minutes ago, Night Train said:

I want Krebs with better players. He's a great passer after checking the opposition and digging/stealing the puck. JMO.

I like the Krebs - Peterka combo, it’s just that the Quinn injury throws a wrench into who their other winger is considering we decided this far to simply..not replace him. So it’s Rousek or Olofsson or you are bumping up KO

The other thing is trying a Mittelstadt - Cozens - Krebs second line but I’m guessing they lean Greenway and his size for that spot. But in that case i think we’d be short a centre

Edited July 10, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch

Mittelstadt - Cozens - Krebs

Greenway - Jost - Peterka

Rousek - Girgensons - Okposo

.. with Krebs in top 6

 

 

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch

Mittelstadt - Cozens - Krebs

Greenway - Jost - Peterka

Rousek - Girgensons - Okposo

.. with Krebs in top 6

 

 

That is an ugly bottom 6.  But technically all 4 lines have a center.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

That is an ugly bottom 6.  But technically all 4 lines have a center.

I kinda thought so too. Which is kinda odd cause it’s just switching Krebs with Greenway. Take out one guy like Quinn and it’s funny how fast that kinda happens. Not advocating for that set up though, I’d keep Krebs on L3 and try to get it some easier matchups, and it’d be the line with the least ice time I think 

[dudacek]

I always thought Levi, Power as real 2D and Quinn as a legit top sixer were the keys to improvement next year.

Looking at the lineup without Jack, I think a lot of pressure is mounting on Krebs to seize the 3C spot the way Cozens became a legit 2C last year.

[Thorny]

Just now, dudacek said:

I always thought Levi, Power as real 2D and Quinn as a legit top sixer were the keys to improvement next year.

Looking at the lineup without Jack, I think a lot of pressure is mounting on Krebs to seize the 3C spot the way Cozens became a legit 2C last year.

That’s a great point. Looking at the stats I keep reminding myself that removing the output of a rookie Quinn isn’t that big of a deal. But it’s what I thought he’d get to this season. His name popped when reading the line configurations, and it feels weird to just not replace him 

I have to start hoping for that from Krebs when I wasn’t before, what would have been found money is now a bit of a wager placed 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Skinner TNT Mitts

JJP Cozens Tuch

VO Krebs Greenway

Girgensons Jost Okposo (Rousek first callup)

Dahlin Samuelsson

Power Clifton

Johnson Lyubushkin (Stillman)

Levi (Comrie)

 

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Skinner TNT Mitts

JJP Cozens Tuch

VO Krebs Greenway

Girgensons Jost Okposo (Rousek first callup)

Dahlin Samuelsson

Power Clifton

Johnson Lyubushkin (Stillman)

Levi (Comrie)

 

I can see that working too.

I continue to be surprised at the number of people who don’t see Jokiharju among this team’s 6 or even 7 defencemen.

Its so unanimous now, I’m starting to 2nd-guess myself, but I don’t see how, if he was (way) ahead of Boosh and Stillman last year, he ends up behind them now?

Edited July 10, 2023 by dudacek

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I can see that working too.

I continue to be surprised at the number of people who don’t see Jokiharju among this team’s 6 or even 7 defencemen.

Its so unanimous now, I’m starting to 2nd-guess myself, but I don’t see LW if he was (way) ahead of Boosh and Stillman last year, he ends up behind them now?

It’s unanimous because people like to use the new names when making their configurations haha. I know I do lol. 

Remains to be seen if the new guys push out old faves like HJ in actuality 

In the minds of Granato 

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Skinner TNT Mitts

JJP Cozens Tuch

VO Krebs Greenway

Girgensons Jost Okposo (Rousek first callup)

Dahlin Samuelsson

Power Clifton

Johnson Lyubushkin (Stillman)

Levi (Comrie)

 

That's actually pretty good.

Could work.

[Randall Flagg]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I can see that working too.

I continue to be surprised at the number of people who don’t see Jokiharju among this team’s 6 or even 7 defencemen.

Its so unanimous now, I’m starting to 2nd-guess myself, but I don’t see how, if he was (way) ahead of Boosh and Stillman last year, he ends up behind them now?

Joki is definitely our 5th best defenseman. Only issue is that Boosh is not far behind and less redundant skill-wise

[GASabresIUFAN]

41 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I can see that working too.

I continue to be surprised at the number of people who don’t see Jokiharju among this team’s 6 or even 7 defencemen.

Its so unanimous now, I’m starting to 2nd-guess myself, but I don’t see how, if he was (way) ahead of Boosh and Stillman last year, he ends up behind them now?

With 5 D slots written in stone, it's a battle between Bush and Joki for the 6th slot.  Joki's advantage is age and contract control while Bush's is size and physical game.  It could easily be Joki in 6, Bush 7, and Stillman 8.  Then Clague 9 and Bryson 10.  However, do we really see the Sabres carrying 9 or even 10 D into the season?  I sided with Bush because of his physical game and I believe management could get something of quality in trade for him. I'd then run with Stillman 7 and Clague 8.  Bryson gets waived to Rochester.  I doubt his 1.85 cap hit gets claimed on waivers. 

Granted we all saw VO getting traded this off-season, but Quinn's injury changed the calculus immediately.  A defensive injury in camp could just as easily re-shuffle the deck.  I see us bringing all 10 to camp and seeing where the cards fall.  

[Cheektorado]

54 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I can see that working too.

I continue to be surprised at the number of people who don’t see Jokiharju among this team’s 6 or even 7 defencemen.

Its so unanimous now, I’m starting to 2nd-guess myself, but I don’t see how, if he was (way) ahead of Boosh and Stillman last year, he ends up behind them now?

Joki is the number one RFA D next year that the decision needs to be made on IMO.  My hope is he proves he can anchor the 3rd pairing this season.

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With 5 D slots written in stone, it's a battle between Bush and Joki for the 6th slot.  Joki's advantage is age and contract control while Bush's is size and physical game.  It could easily be Joki in 6, Bush 7, and Stillman 8.  Then Clague 9 and Bryson 10.  However, do we really see the Sabres carrying 9 or even 10 D into the season?  I sided with Bush because of his physical game and I believe management could get something of quality in trade for him. I'd then run with Stillman 7 and Clague 8.  Bryson gets waived to Rochester.  I doubt his 1.85 cap hit gets claimed on waivers. 

Granted we all saw VO getting traded this off-season, but Quinn's injury changed the calculus immediately.  A defensive injury in camp could just as easily re-shuffle the deck.  I see us bringing all 10 to camp and seeing where the cards fall.  

Why wouldn't they carry the 10 (11 counting R. Johnson) they have into the season?  Remember, Kevyn Adams was the beneficiary of insufficent Sabres Blue Line depth back in '06 and he was bitten hard on the arse this past season when Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, Jokiharju, etc all went down at the same time and the Sabres were left with Dahlin, Power, and 4 dwarfs (skillwise, not necessarily sizewise, though Bryson might've qualified that way as well 😉 ) and proceeded to lose 8 in a row.  Win one of those in regulation and we probably don't see Okposo back this year nor are we as fans as desperate to see UPL and Comrie upgraded.

Dahlin, Samuelsson, and Power aren't getting traded.  Can't see E. Johnson nor Clifton getting traded either.  Just how much value is there in trading away Jokiharju or Busch?  If they make a trade for a Pesce, could see Joker going out as part of the package; but at the end of the day, they still have 10/11 deep at D.

Maybe the Hellebucyk trade is still getting discussed.  Could see Joker part of that package as well.  But other than those 2 potential trades (or something in the same vein) what trade is getting made to lessen the D depth?

Fully expect to see them keep 8 in Buffalo with Clague, Bryson, and R. Johnson in Ra-cha-cha.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Why wouldn't they carry the 10 (11 counting R. Johnson) they have into the season?

Because you only have 23 roster slots.  If you have 10 D and 12 F, that leaves you with one goalie or 10D, 11F, and 2 goalies.  It's also much more likely KA keeps his 3 headed goalie monsters.  3G, 10D, and 10 forwards won't work.  Also, how do you then manage a tryout for Benson or Savoie or any forward injury? 

Edited July 10, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Because you only have 23 roster slots.  If you have 10 D and 12 F, that leaves you with one goalie or 10D, 11F, and 2 goalies.  It's also much more likely KA keeps his 3 headed goalie monsters.  3G, 10D and 10 forwards won't work. 

If you actually read the entire post you would see that it was SPECIFICALLY SPELLED OUT THAT ONLY 8 of the 10 (or 11) would be on the Sabres and the other 2 (or 3) were Ra-cha-cha bound.

The others are there for depth.

[dudacek]

30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With 5 D slots written in stone, it's a battle between Bush and Joki for the 6th slot.  Joki's advantage is age and contract control while Bush's is size and physical game.  It could easily be Joki in 6, Bush 7, and Stillman 8.  Then Clague 9 and Bryson 10.  However, do we really see the Sabres carrying 9 or even 10 D into the season?  I sided with Bush because of his physical game and I believe management could get something of quality in trade for him. I'd then run with Stillman 7 and Clague 8.  Bryson gets waived to Rochester.  I doubt his 1.85 cap hit gets claimed on waivers. 

Granted we all saw VO getting traded this off-season, but Quinn's injury changed the calculus immediately.  A defensive injury in camp could just as easily re-shuffle the deck.  I see us bringing all 10 to camp and seeing where the cards fall.  

They bring in two guys whose games line up in the physical side of the ledger and you think that means they will bump the puck-moving #4 who got 20 minutes a game instead of the stay-at home #5 who got 15?

And not just from the starting lineup, you’ve got him all the way down to #8.

if the starting 5 is what you expect, Jokiharju is more useful in the lineup than a 4th stay-at-home guy, no?

Who’s carrying the puck on the 3rd pair? Or god forbid if Dahlin or Power gets hurt?

Edited July 10, 2023 by dudacek

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Because you only have 23 roster slots.  If you have 10 D and 12 F, that leaves you with one goalie or 10D, 11F, and 2 goalies.  It's also much more likely KA keeps his 3 headed goalie monsters.  3G, 10D, and 10 forwards won't work.  Also, how do you then manage a tryout for Benson or Savoie or any forward injury? 

You then proceeded to edit the original daftness to go even further into strawman land?

Im-####ing-press-ive.