The Contract you prefer for Owen Power?

[oddoublee]

I am shocked how many people are good with signing him at over 8 million a year. Heck, Dahlin only got 3 years at 6 million per - and he had some really nice offensive seasons in his pocket.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when he gets a 3 year, 5 to 5.5 million a year contract. 

[Brawndo]

Lance Lysowski in His Mailbag mentioned that Power is reportedly interested in a long term deal and used the second contracts of Aaron Ekblad (8 years 7.5 Million AAV) and Miro Heiskanen (8 years 8.45 Million AAV). 
 

Does eight years 8.75 AAV get it done? 

[Curt]

16 minutes ago, oddoublee said:

I am shocked how many people are good with signing him at over 8 million a year. Heck, Dahlin only got 3 years at 6 million per - and he had some really nice offensive seasons in his pocket.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when he gets a 3 year, 5 to 5.5 million a year contract. 

If Power signs a 3 year bridge, I think that 5-5.5 is just about right.  If he signs an 8 year deal, I think you are looking at $8M+.  Don’t think anyone is advocating that it would take $8M per to sign him to a 3 year bridge.

[mjd1001]

19 minutes ago, oddoublee said:

I am shocked how many people are good with signing him at over 8 million a year. Heck, Dahlin only got 3 years at 6 million per - and he had some really nice offensive seasons in his pocket.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when he gets a 3 year, 5 to 5.5 million a year contract. 

I hope so.

I like Power a lot and as a young rookie for a D-man, he played great. But from what I saw, great FOR A ROOKIE. He wasn't playing at an all-star level yet and he has the tools to be a great D-man but his play wasn't close to a guy you can say is a lock to be a Norris candidate in the future.

He is good now. VERY good for his age. He has the tools to be great, but by no means is he a lock (yet) to be a top 10 d-man in the league.

[mjd1001]

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

If Power signs a 3 year bridge, I think that 5-5.5 is just about right.  If he signs an 8 year deal, I think you are looking at $8M+.  Don’t think anyone is advocating that it would take $8M per to sign him to a 3 year bridge.

Doing the math...3 at 5.5 is 15.5 total  8 at 8.5 is 68 total.  If you do the 8 year version instead of the 3 year bridge you are basically deciding to pay 52.5 million for the remaining 5 tears beyond the bridge. 

 For those saying 8 years at 8.5...mathematically you are saying that instead of 3 at 5.5....you would take that 3 at 5.5 and add on 5 more at 10.5 per year after.  

I'm not so sure I would sign him for 8 at 8.5....IF 3 at 5.5 is an option.  I might just take the 3 at 5.5 and then re-evaluate at the end of that deal, not thinking that it will cost MUCH more than what it would be if you broke it down.  Again, if those are the options, we are throwing out a lot of guesses at the moment.

[Curt]

14 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Doing the math...3 at 5.5 is 15.5 total  8 at 8.5 is 68 total.  If you do the 8 year version instead of the 3 year bridge you are basically deciding to pay 52.5 million for the remaining 5 tears beyond the bridge. 

 For those saying 8 years at 8.5...mathematically you are saying that instead of 3 at 5.5....you would take that 3 at 5.5 and add on 5 more at 10.5 per year after.  

I'm not so sure I would sign him for 8 at 8.5....IF 3 at 5.5 is an option.  I might just take the 3 at 5.5 and then re-evaluate at the end of that deal, not thinking that it will cost MUCH more than what it would be if you broke it down.  Again, if those are the options, we are throwing out a lot of guesses at the moment.

But 8 year at $8.5 is not the same as 3 x $5.5 + 5 x $10.5 because what really matters is the cap hit in years when Sabres will be tight to the cap max.

If in those 3 years Power develops into an excellent defenseman and the cap increases by $12M, then you probably are looking at $11+ for Power on a long term deal.  That $2-3M extra for Power in those years 4-8 could make a significant difference.

[mjd1001]

48 minutes ago, Curt said:

But 8 year at $8.5 is not the same as 3 x $5.5 + 5 x $10.5 because what really matters is the cap hit in years when Sabres will be tight to the cap max.

If in those 3 years Power develops into an excellent defenseman and the cap increases by $12M, then you probably are looking at $11+ for Power on a long term deal.  That $2-3M extra for Power in those years 4-8 could make a significant difference.

It is the same in nominal terms. Whether the cap goes up is the thing you have to decide if the nominal makes it worth it.  The point of my post is do you break the contract down the way you do knowing the nominal, but not knowing the other things.  Plus for me, I guess the numbers being as high as everyone is throwing out there, those numbers are good for Dahlin, I'm not sure sure for Power.  I think Dahlin has a higher likely ceiling than Power.  My personal opinion is Dahlin is/should be in the Norris trophy discussion every year for the next Decade. I think Power, while very very good, might be more likely to be 'all star' caliber, but a notch below Norris caliber.

Edited June 19, 2023 by mjd1001

[Curt]

22 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

It is the same in nominal terms. Whether the cap goes up is the thing you have to decide if the nominal makes it worth it.  The point of my post is do you break the contract down the way you do knowing the nominal, but not knowing the other things.  Plus for me, I guess the numbers being as high as everyone is throwing out there, those numbers are good for Dahlin, I'm not sure sure for Power.  I think Dahlin has a higher likely ceiling than Power.  My personal opinion is Dahlin is/should be in the Norris trophy discussion every year for the next Decade. I think Power, while very very good, might be more likely to be 'all star' caliber, but a notch below Norris caliber.

I don’t know, I think Power will always lag a little behind Dahlin in terms of offensive production, but I think Power has a higher defensive potential.  With his skating (better than Dahlin’s?) and length, I think he could be a dominant defensive force.  Especially in a few years after he fills out and starts to use his strength a little more.

A number like 8 x $8.5M is very comparable to what other highly drafted defensemen with similar production have gotten on a long term 2nd contract.

If you are not sure Power will be good enough to deserve a $8.5M+ contract in a few years, that’s a valid reason to opt for a bridge.  I just think that 4 years from now, after he is playing very well and the cap has made a big jump, Power would be resigning for $10M or more.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Lance Lysowski in His Mailbag mentioned that Power is reportedly interested in a long term deal and used the second contracts of Aaron Ekblad (8 years 7.5 Million AAV) and Miro Heiskanen (8 years 8.45 Million AAV). 
 

Does eight years 8.75 AAV get it done? 

I think it’s probably where you need to be.

I understand why some people’s jaws drop, but I’d do it.

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I hope so.

I like Power a lot and as a young rookie for a D-man, he played great. But from what I saw, great FOR A ROOKIE. He wasn't playing at an all-star level yet and he has the tools to be a great D-man but his play wasn't close to a guy you can say is a lock to be a Norris candidate in the future.

He is good now. VERY good for his age. He has the tools to be great, but by no means is he a lock (yet) to be a top 10 d-man in the league.

This is all true.

Thing is, Power doesn’t need to be a Norris Trophy candidate for the contract to make sense.

$8 million right now, meaning as of today, would make him the 17th highest paid defenceman in the league. 

3 or 4 years from now, it may not be in the top 30. Nine years from now, when he’s 29, I’d be surprised if it’s top 50.

Yeah, he might be overpaid the next year or two, but he might be underpaid for 5 or 6 after that, even if he “only” turns into a Thomas Chabot level player.

I have no problem betting on Power being a top 50 NHL defenceman for the majority of the deal and $8-million reflects that.

I really think it’s just the appropriate manifestation of what powered the Mule and Tage signings: if you’ve seen enough to believe, lock him up.

Edited June 19, 2023 by dudacek

[oddoublee]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

If Power signs a 3 year bridge, I think that 5-5.5 is just about right.  If he signs an 8 year deal, I think you are looking at $8M+.  Don’t think anyone is advocating that it would take $8M per to sign him to a 3 year bridge.

For me, just not ready to give him 8 million a year at this point as he is not an 8 million dollar player. No guarantee he turns out to be that valuable - I would rather he prove it - and if it costs us 10 million later...and that is a big if even if he becomes an all star... then we can deal with the price. 

[oddoublee]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think it’s probably where you need to be.

I understand why some people’s jaws drop, but I’d do it.

This is all true.

Thing is, Power doesn’t need to be a Norris Trophy candidate for the contract to make sense.

$8 million right now, meaning as of today, would make him the 17th highest paid defenceman in the league. 

3 or 4 years from now, it may not be in the top 30. Nine years from now, when he’s 29, I’d be surprised if it’s top 50.

Yeah, he might be overpaid the next year or two, but he might be underpaid for 5 or 6 after that, even if he “only” turns into a Thomas Chabot level player.

I have no problem betting on Power being a top 50 NHL defenceman for the majority of the deal and $8-million reflects that.

I really think it’s just the appropriate manifestation of what powered the Mule and Tage signings: if you’ve seen enough to believe, lock him up.

Top 30 or 50 would indicate he is a first line pairing on most NHL teams...not sure I am willing to bet that myself yet. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, oddoublee said:

For me, just not ready to give him 8 million a year at this point as he is not an 8 million dollar player. No guarantee he turns out to be that valuable - I would rather he prove it - and if it costs us 10 million later...and that is a big if even if he becomes an all star... then we can deal with the price. 

It goes back to the idea that you should pay players for what you expect them to do over the life of the contract, not for what they have done in the past.

Based on his talent, character, and the projected cap increases, I would be absolutely shocked if Power is not worth more than $8.5M per year over most of the next 9 years.

My view is that you pay him for what you expect him to be.  Give him the 8 year contract at $8.5M and if he turn out to be worth ONLY $6M over the contract, then we can deal with the price.  At least that way you have the chance of ending up with a bargain contract, plus it shows one of your most import players that you believe in them and want them to be part of the organization long term.

It’s just the philosophy that I  personally prefer.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, oddoublee said:

Top 30 or 50 would indicate he is a first line pairing on most NHL teams...not sure I am willing to bet that myself yet. 

Hmm, I think he is close to if not already a #2 level NHL defenseman.

[Marvin]

5 hours ago, oddoublee said:

I am shocked how many people are good with signing him at over 8 million a year. Heck, Dahlin only got 3 years at 6 million per - and he had some really nice offensive seasons in his pocket.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when he gets a 3 year, 5 to 5.5 million a year contract. 

Welcome back!

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Lance Lysowski in His Mailbag mentioned that Power is reportedly interested in a long term deal and used the second contracts of Aaron Ekblad (8 years 7.5 Million AAV) and Miro Heiskanen (8 years 8.45 Million AAV). 
 

Does eight years 8.75 AAV get it done? 

8.75 feels a smidge high tbh but a couple of our other contracts make it an easier pill to swallow 

[Brawndo]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think it’s probably where you need to be.

I understand why some people’s jaws drop, but I’d do it.

The Old School Hockey reaction: will be WTF

The Analytics Reaction will be:hell yes great signing

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

8.75 feels a smidge high tbh but a couple of our other contracts make it an easier pill to swallow 

I figured the other two contracts were about 10% of the cap and starting in 2024-25, the first year of the deal the cap is expected to rise to at least 87.5 million so 8.75 million AAV might be the sweet spot 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

5 hours ago, Curt said:

Hmm, I think he is close to if not already a #2 level NHL defenseman.

He is.  As a rookie on just about any team he would be #2.  On some he would be #1.  He is #3 on the Sabres in 'name only' as Dahlin needs his Mule.

[In The Buff]

All good points by you guys, but with the breakdown of our roster is anyone concerned with these contracts we'll become the reverse Leafs?

They have their top end contracts weighing them down with their forwards.

We may have ours with our defense.

Inverted Leafs? Tough decisions to be made. I'd think KA takes a lesson from how he handled Dahlin & tries to lock up Power for longer now. I cant see how his decision making with Power isn't influenced by what he learned with Dahlin's negotiations. What that means in terms of specifics, i'll leave that up to you guys 😛

[Taro T]

52 minutes ago, In The Buff said:

All good points by you guys, but with the breakdown of our roster is anyone concerned with these contracts we'll become the reverse Leafs?

They have their top end contracts weighing them down with their forwards.

We may have ours with our defense.

Inverted Leafs? Tough decisions to be made. I'd think KA takes a lesson from how he handled Dahlin & tries to lock up Power for longer now. I cant see how his decision making with Power isn't influenced by what he learned with Dahlin's negotiations. What that means in terms of specifics, i'll leave that up to you guys 😛

If Dahlin comes in at $10MM/ and Power comes in at $8+/, the Sabres will have about $23MM locked up into their top 3 D.  The Sabres have about $23MM locked up in 2/3 of their top line and their #2C.  Not seeing where the D is out of kilter with the F's.  But would agree it's something to watch for, especially with the likelihood of bringing in a legit top 4 D-man to round out that unit.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, In The Buff said:

All good points by you guys, but with the breakdown of our roster is anyone concerned with these contracts we'll become the reverse Leafs?

They have their top end contracts weighing them down with their forwards.

We may have ours with our defense.

Inverted Leafs? Tough decisions to be made. I'd think KA takes a lesson from how he handled Dahlin & tries to lock up Power for longer now. I cant see how his decision making with Power isn't influenced by what he learned with Dahlin's negotiations. What that means in terms of specifics, i'll leave that up to you guys 😛

This a legitimate concern.

For me, if the Sabres become Cup contenders it's because Power and Dahlin are their best players and legit top 10 NHL blueliners.

$18 million is cheap for your top 2 players over the next 9 years.

[Randall Flagg]

I guess im old school, I would not do 8x8.75 right now