Owen Power - Calder, Norris???

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

This isn’t what I’m talking about though. I already said I think GMs factor in position pretty early ie sooner allow for it to be the deciding factor 

Im talking about the frequent refrain you see that we/teams must select the guy with the most talent, full stop, calls for “BPA!” and then the contrasting “what would we ever do though if we had a great F in Beniers! Could you imagine?”

I mean ya, I can imagine. Can you not plausibly have seen Adams himself identify Beniers as the best player there? Would we have been doomed if we did? If you tout BPA, presumably that person would be ok with the situation where we’d need to swing a deal. You’d have to think those situations would arise under the strategy 

I just think that in practice GMs are rarely choosing between players of significantly different value and “best player available“ doesn’t carry the weight a lot of people assign to it. Basically, BPA is like “top 4 D” or “3rd-liner”: it means different things to different people.

BPA matters when it’s obvious, like if Adams thought Beniers was O’Reilly and Power was Marco Scandella. It doesn’t matter if he thinks Beniers is O’Reilly and Power is Pietrangelo because in that case it’s in the eye of the beholder and their asset value is roughly similar.

Edited February 21, 2023 by dudacek

[IKnowPhysics]

22 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

There are likely several teams out there right now in which Owen Power would be the number one defensemen.

Added bits.

Specifically ANA, CHI, CBJ, and MON.  Arguably NYI, PHI, PIT, and STL.  And likely several more that would just be happy to have Power's potential for the next few seasons.

And if anyone hasn't seen him play in person, Power is noticeably huge.  Tied for 6th tallest in the league.  Which, considering that it sometimes takes tall players longer to develop, only makes it all the more remarkable that he's this capable this soon.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

No wonder at all, since they’ve invested two 1st overall picks and 2 top 32 picks in the past 5 years on defencemen, more high picks over that span than any team in the league save one. (And also traded to add another former 1st rounder)

This “stop ignoring the defence” thing is one of the worst memes on Sabrespace. 

The reason there are no defencemen in Rochester is that all our recent picks are already in the NHL.

This complaint is basically saying the Sabres have taken too many Rouseks and Weissbach when they should have been taking more Laaksonen’s. If that’s what’s important, 🤷

That’s not the argument at all.  KA has drafted 13 players the last 3 years in the first 3 rounds.  11 forwards, 1 D and 1G.  (7.6%).  Overall he has drafted 27 players and only 5 D (18.5%) and 4 of the 5 are late round picks.  Last I looked D comprise about 33% of a roster.  Hard to develop D when you don’t draft any.  Hard to develop top 4 D when you only draft one early in the draft over a 3 year period.

Going back 5 years is a false flag.  Yes those draft picks are in the NHL and they should be by now.  Dahlin is D+5, Samuelsson is D+5, Bryson D+6, Jokiharju D+6 , and Clague D+7. None of these guys, except Power, are “recent draft picks.” 

 

 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Added bits.

Specifically ANA, CHI, CBJ, and MON.  Arguably NYI, PHI, PIT, and STL.  And likely several more that would just be happy to have Power's potential for the next few seasons.

And if anyone hasn't seen him play in person, Power is noticeably huge.  Tied for 6th tallest in the league.  Which, considering that it sometimes takes tall players longer to develop, only makes it all the more remarkable that he's this capable this soon.

To the bolded, absolutely.  

He and Comrie did a B&G Insights for the STHers a couple of months back and while Comrie with ridiculously long legs for a man his height was putting his feet on the cross beam of the bar stool he was on, Power had his toes on the ground.

He is nearly Tage Thompson big.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s not the argument at all.  KA has drafted 13 players the last 3 years in the first 3 rounds.  11 forwards, 1 D and 1G.  (7.6%).  Overall he has drafted 27 players and only 5 D (18.5%) and 4 of the 5 are late round picks.  Last I looked D comprise about 33% of a roster.  Hard to develop D when you don’t draft any.  Hard to develop top 4 D when you only draft one early in the draft over a 3 year period.

Going back 5 years is a false flag.  Yes those draft picks are in the NHL and they should be by now.  Dahlin is D+5, Samuelsson is D+5, Bryson D+6, Jokiharju D+6 , and Clague D+7. None of these guys, except Power, are “recent draft picks.” 

 

 

You’re being pretty selective here on how you are presenting your numbers.

Going back 5 years is not a false flag at all, not when players - particularly defencemen take 3 to 5 years to even reach the NHL. It’s certainly no worse than choosing to draw the line at 3 years so you don’t have to include the 3 top 32 picks used on defencemen the 2 years before.

NHL teams, on average, get 7 picks a year. Since defencemen make up 30 % of the roster, they “should” be using 2 picks each year on defencemen. The Sabres, under Adams, took 2 last year, 2 the year before and 1 the year before that.

On average, an NHL team “should” be picking 1 defencemen in the 1st round every 3 years. That’s what Adams has done.

You can choose to ignore that the Sabres had just invested 3 of their 4 highest picks and traded for another recent 1st round defencemen just prior to Adams arrival, but you shouldn’t. It’s definitely relevant and should factor into the rationale of how they’ve picked since.

The Sabres have invested an NHL average amount of draft capital on defenceman over the past 3 years and well above average over the past 5 years. That’s not even accounting for the unique fact they have invested 2(!) #1 overall picks on the blueline.

The idea that they are ignoring the defence is an absolutely false narrative that crumbles to dust under close examination.

You’re missing the forest for the trees.

Just ask yourself how many U23 groups you’d rather have.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by dudacek

[Drag0nDan]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s not the argument at all.  KA has drafted 13 players the last 3 years in the first 3 rounds.  11 forwards, 1 D and 1G.  (7.6%).  Overall he has drafted 27 players and only 5 D (18.5%) and 4 of the 5 are late round picks.  Last I looked D comprise about 33% of a roster.  Hard to develop D when you don’t draft any.  Hard to develop top 4 D when you only draft one early in the draft over a 3 year period.

Going back 5 years is a false flag.  Yes those draft picks are in the NHL and they should be by now.  Dahlin is D+5, Samuelsson is D+5, Bryson D+6, Jokiharju D+6 , and Clague D+7. None of these guys, except Power, are “recent draft picks.” 

 

 

I agree with most of this and think they should and probably will draft more defensemen.  Johnson is a wildcard, Lindgren is 18, and everything in the near term is bad.  That is the issue - drafting someone this year doesn't help the team likely for at least a year or two.  Factor in that the pipeline is pretty barren at almost every level, and you're short depth of some 20 somethings. 

Losing borgen sucked, cost controlled 3rd pair guy and a righty at that.  But looking at the roster i'm not sure what else you could've done.  If we used hindsight i guess we trade out 10 for 8 skaters and leave out asplund bjork and mittelstadt.  But at the time - that last one could've been thompson

[dudacek]

Just to add a bit to be clear. The defence is definitely the weakest part of the pipeline and should be addressed this June.

But that’s relative to the overall pipeline and ignoring the players already on the team.

Relative to their peers in the NHL, Lindgren Komarov Novikov and Johnson is mediocre, but not bottom of the barrel. When you add Power into the mix (how many D from the past 2 drafts are in the NHL?) the Sabre group is closer to top of the barrel.

And when you look at what the depth chart in Buffalo looks like for the next 4-6 years - you know, the reason you have a pipeline - the Sabres rank right at the top of the league.

Edited February 21, 2023 by dudacek

[DarthEbriate]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

...

The reason there are no defencemen in Rochester is that all our recent picks are already in the NHL.

...

This is the way.

The issue with the Sabres' defensive picks, pipeline, or picks used in trades for D, isn't that they aren't good or that the Sabres haven't used the picks on defense, it's that there are no under-24 prospects in Rochester that you can call up as an injury replacement and say "this is a future top-8 in Buffalo". It's because Power skipped the AHL, Johnson is staying in college through his senior season, Fitzgerald was claimed, and a bunch of are playing in Europe or stayed in Europe and were never offered contracts. Note: Only one trade has added a defender to the Amerks' current lineup (Cecconi in), but it resulted in defender Laaksonen going out. Only one trade has added a defender to the Sabres current lineup (Nylander for Jokiharju).

For the completists, this is every recent Sabres draft pick that has been used on a defender in some capacity. (And savior Borgen [2015] was claimed, too, to our chagrin.)

2022 
4 Lindgren
5 Komarov
5T Colin Miller

2021
1 Power
2T Colin Miller
6 Novikov

2020
7 Lyckasen

2019
1T Montour (+ 2015 2nd [Guhle])
1 Johnson

2018
1 Dahlin
2 Samuelsson
3T Scandella
4 Lindstrand-Kronholm
5 Kukkonen
6 Worge Kreu

2017
3T Beaulieu
3 Laaksonen
4 Bryson

2016
2T Kulikov
3 Fitzgerald
3T Kulikov
5 Nyberg
5 Budik
7 Osmanski

Back on target: Beniers has earned the Calder buzz (thus far). He has earned his spot on Seattle's top line (though, like a baby Eichel to a ROR, it's Gourde who gets more minutes currently with all the PK, PP, and defensive responsibilities). Barring injury he'll surpass 25 goals and he is the major reason (with Burakovsky) for the Kraken's surge in the standings. Remember, they're 2 points out of first place in the Western Conference. If Power is hot this entire stretch run and the Sabres get into the playoffs, then we can add his name to the hopper.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

You’re being pretty selective here on how you are presenting your numbers.

Going back 5 years is not a false flag at all, not when players - particularly defencemen take 3 to 5 years to even reach the NHL. It’s certainly no worse than choosing to draw the line at 3 years so you don’t have to include the 3 top 32 picks used on defencemen the 2 years before.

NHL teams, on average, get 7 picks a year. Since defencemen make up 30 % of the roster, they “should” be using 2 picks each year on defencemen. The Sabres, under Adams, took 2 last year, 2 the year before and 1 the year before that.

On average, an NHL team “should” be picking 1 defencemen in the 1st round every 3 years. That’s what Adams has done.

You can choose to ignore that the Sabres had just invested 3 of their 4 highest picks and traded for another recent 1st round defencemen just prior to Adams arrival, but you shouldn’t. It’s definitely relevant and should factor into the rationale of how they’ve picked since.

The Sabres have invested an NHL average amount of draft capital on defenceman over the past 3 years and well above average over the past 5 years. That’s not even accounting for the unique fact they have invested 2(!) #1 overall picks on the blueline.

The idea that they are ignoring the defence is an absolutely false narrative that crumbles to dust under close examination.

You’re missing the forest for the trees.

Just ask yourself how many U23 groups you’d rather have.

 

 

I'm not sure where you got your stats from but I went and looked at the last three drafts and this is what they revealed

The average team used 32% of their draft picks on D.  The Sabres used 18.5%.  Only Edm and the NYR drafted a smaller % than the Sabres.  Of the 5 other teams with the most picks (27 to 29 picks), the average number of D taken was over 9 and that represented 33% of the picks taken.  The Sabres should have done likewise.  They also drafted 2-3 D in the first 2 rounds.  Only 5 teams drafted less D than we did including Seattle (4 but only in 2 drafts), and playoffs teams Toronto, Colorado, the NYR and Edm.  Except for the NYR, the other 3 had traded away many top picks.

The Sabres' 21 drafted forwards were the most by a wide margin and our 78% drafting of forwards was 2nd most behind Edm's 87.5% but they only had 16 picks.  The average team drafted 12 forwards.  

You say I ignore the highly drafted players.  I haven't.  50% of our D group needs to be overhauled and we have to go outside the organization to do it because we don't have any ready or near-ready prospects to even look at.  Johnson is the closest, and like Samuelsson, Dahlin, and Jokiharju he is a Jbot acquisition.  KA has not done nearly enough to bolster our D pipeline and that isn't even debatable at this point.   

Edited February 22, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[mjd1001]

Powerdidn't look great tonight. A few mistakes whiffed on the puck a couple times.  For the first time in a while he looked like a 19 year old rookie.

[dudacek]

16 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm not sure where you got your stats from but I went and looked at the last three drafts and this is what they revealed

The average team used 32% of their draft picks on D.  The Sabres used 18.5%.  Only Edm and the NYR drafted a smaller % than the Sabres.  Of the 5 other teams with the most picks (27 to 29 picks), the average number of D taken was over 9 and that represented 33% of the picks taken.  The Sabres should have done likewise.  They also drafted 2-3 D in the first 2 rounds.  Only 5 teams drafted less D than we did including Seattle (4 but only in 2 drafts), and playoffs teams Toronto, Colorado, the NYR and Edm.  Except for the NYR, the other 3 had traded away many top picks.

The Sabres' 21 drafted forwards were the most by a wide margin and our 78% drafting of forwards was 2nd most behind Edm's 87.5% but they only had 16 picks.  The average team drafted 12 forwards.  

You say I ignore the highly drafted players.  I haven't.  50% of our D group needs to be overhauled and we have to go outside the organization to do it because we don't have any ready or near-ready prospects to even look at.  Johnson is the closest, and like Samuelsson, Dahlin, and Jokiharju he is a Jbot acquisition.  KA has not done nearly enough to bolster our D pipeline and that isn't even debatable at this point.   

If they Sabres pick 20 picks over 2 years and 4 of them are defencemen and the Bruins make 10 picks over the same period and 3 of them are defenceman, the Sabres have still added more defencemen to their pipeline.

The way you are using percentages is irrelevant. 

Putting aside the numbers for a second, and look at what Buffalo has actually done compared to its rivals over your chosen time period.

• Boston: Lohrei, Brunet, Mast, Gallagher, Edward
• Toronto: Niemela, Villeneuve, Rindell, Fusco
• Tampa: Gill, Schmidt, Gagne, Pelenkov, Thompson, Powell
• Florida: Alscher, Jansen, Lukashevich, Hache, Benning, Uens, Puutio
• Detroit: Eidvinsson, Buim, Wallinder, Sebrango, Johansson, Mathurin, Plandowski, Viro, Cotton
• Ottawa:  Sanderson, Kleven, Nordberg, Hamara, Donovan, Roger, Waller, Romeo
• Montreal: Guhle, Mailloux, Hutson, Engstrom, Tourigny, Nurmi, Kostenko, Trudeau, Sobelev
• Buffalo: Power, Lindgren, Komarov, Novikov, Lyckasen

It seems to me you’re investing a lot of angst over the Sabres being short a Tyler Kleven or two.

If you said some of those teams have better odds of adding future Jacob Brysons, I’d say “probably.”

If you said you’d take any of the other groups of drafted blueliners ahead of the Sabres’ group, I’d say you’re lying.

Edited February 22, 2023 by dudacek

[JKB1646]

9 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Powerdidn't look great tonight. A few mistakes whiffed on the puck a couple times.  For the first time in a while he looked like a 19 year old rookie.

Power’s did not play like a Calder candidate and we really need to stop discussing Norris potential. It’s gonna be at least another four years before we know what we really have in him. Like I said before, Tyler Meyers won the Calder as a Sabres and everyone thought he was the second coming of Chara and a future Norris winner, not so much huh

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, JKB1646 said:

Power’s did not play like a Calder candidate and we really need to stop discussing Norris potential. It’s gonna be at least another four years before we know what we really have in him. Like I said before, Tyler Meyers won the Calder as a Sabres and everyone thought he was the second coming of Chara and a future Norris winner, not so much huh

And Myers went late 1st round for a reason even though he was even bigger than Power.  Myers was paired w/ Tallinder his rookie year & that was huge for him.

When Hank left Myers took a huge step back.

Power played against men at 18 in the Olympics and played well.  Power has been the better player on his pairing almost the entire season, he hasn't been getting support, he's been providing the support.

Apples and oranges.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

And Myers went late 1st round for a reason even though he was even bigger than Power.  Myers was paired w/ Tallinder his rookie year & that was huge for him.

When Hank left Myers took a huge step back.

Power played against men at 18 in the Olympics and played well.  Power has been the better player on his pairing almost the entire season, he hasn't been getting support, he's been providing the support.

Apples and oranges.

One of KA’s biggest errors this season was not getting Power a Tallinder type player to partner with.  This vet would have helped Power open up the offensive side pf his game while also providing leadership to the entire inexperienced D group.  Instead he brought in the marginal Lyubushkin.  

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One of KA’s biggest errors this season was not getting Power a Tallinder type player to partner with.  This vet would have helped Power open up the offensive side pf his game while also providing leadership to the entire inexperienced D group.  Instead he brought in the marginal Lyubushkin.  

In the off season we both wanted to see 2 D brougnt in.  Only one top 6 guy was brought in.

They would be better if they had another top 4 guy.  But it is what it is.  Expect we might see a D-man brought in.  Just don't have a good feel though for what will be brought in.

Am not as dowm on Lyubushkin as you are, but we would be much better off if he and Jokiharju were the 3rd pairing.  And actually expect Bousch to be much better for the Sabres next year with being healthy and having a year of experience in this "system."

[JKB1646]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

And Myers went late 1st round for a reason even though he was even bigger than Power.  Myers was paired w/ Tallinder his rookie year & that was huge for him.

When Hank left Myers took a huge step back.

Power played against men at 18 in the Olympics and played well.  Power has been the better player on his pairing almost the entire season, he hasn't been getting support, he's been providing the support.

Apples and oranges.

Not quite. My point being it takes at least four years to realize what you ultimately have in a defenseman. Meyers was 19 yrs old when he made his debut in the NHL and won the Calder. He and Powers have similar size and skating style. He also was not a late round pick. He was picked # 12 and I must say the 4 defensemen picked before him all have Stanley Cups; Daughty, Bogosian,  Pietrangelo and Schenn. Taken after Meyers was Karlsson. That being said looking back where does Tyler Meyers rank compared to these other first round draft picks? The loss of Hank had nothing to do with Meyers falling flat on his face. He came in the next year after the Calder, over weight and out of shape. He was in no condition to take the next step. Matter fact the next two summers were the same. Sooo it is apple to apples and I hope we don't have another Meyers on our hands. Its just way way to early to tell.