NHL development: tracking Sabre kids in the NHL

[dudacek]

Like many of us here, I never expected this year to be about the Sabres winning games and chasing a playoff spot.

It was about creating a culture, passing the torch, and seeing how our developing players responded. I see 10 players on the NHL roster who the Sabres brass have been auditioning for roles on this team when it gets good.

The season is now a month old and these are my takes on their progress so far

Jokiharju

• Incomplete 

Cozens

• As many feared, Cozens seems to be putting the success and failure of the team on his shoulders before he is ready. I see some flashes of his speed and skill mixed with some major gaffes, mostly to do with lack of strength. He plays a power forward’s game but he’s not powerful enough to do so yet at this level. Simultaneously, he is one of our best 12 forwards, and in over his head. I think Donnie has handled him well, but Kevyn has to be debating whether he would be better off in Rochester.

Ruotsalainen

• The thing that sticks out to me with R2 is the size of the fight in the dog. His goal last night was a textbook example of his want. The other thing is how he has struggled with his defensive zone reads at times at centre. More than any other prospect, he has been asked to play a role outside his normal game, with no PP time or shifts with skill players who can think offence at his level. I’m not sure if the plan is “learn how to defend at an NHL level and we’ll give you a shot up the lineup,” or if the team actually sees his future in the bottom 6. He’s clearly been the 12th forward and it’s hard to say whether or not he’s earned more.

Dahlin

• I loved the way Dahlin started the year. I thought his D-zone coverage and strength on the puck and in battles were much improved, and his entries and exits were things of beauty. Not sure if it’s chicken or egg, but he stopped being the Sabres best player around the same time the Sabres stopped playing good hockey. I think overall he’s been better than the Internet gives him credit for, but he has certainly had his rough moments the past week or two. His horrible penchant for embarrassing plays coupled with his lack of big plays and his draft status is going to always make him a lightning rod for criticism. He is leading the team in ice time, he’s put up decent counting stats and he has a positive Corsi. The Sabres needed him to take a step this year and so far he hasn’t.

Mittelstadt

• Incomplete

Olofsson

• Some might consider Olofsson too old to be “developing”, but he started the season with less than 120 games played. I think a player generally needs at least 200 before we know who he is. And before he got hurt, it has looked like Victor had taken another step. To my eyes, he’s very clearly changed his approach from complementary player, to a guy who wants to be a leader and a difference maker. One could make a strong argument he has been the Sabres best player, and his counting stats and analytics back that up. He has continued as a PP weapon, but it has been his ES play that has opened eyes. He’s been used as a 1st-liner and so far has been fully up to the task.

Thompson

• I honestly don’t think Thompson’s play has received enough attention on here. When the year started, many of you questioned his ability to be an NHL player at all. No one thought for a second he could be an effective top six centre, let alone one who has simultaneously been effective defensively and the team’s most creative, dangerous forward. Instead of brain-dead passes and toe-drags we’ve seen a player who can evade checkers, carry the puck effectively through traffic and get it to the net. Instead of making turnovers, he’s creating them. He’s showing himself to be a legit middle-six player and maybe more. And maybe we need to start taking the idea of him actually being a centre for this team long-term seriously.

Asplund

• I fell in love with Rasmus Asplund’s game during the rookie tournament during his first pro season. There are players who draw the eye with their flash, or their bash, and then there are players who don’t, but if you actively watch, you see how well they do all the little things correctly. I call the latter the Patrice Bergeron factor, and at that level he had it. It took a while to show up at the AHL level and even longer at the NHL level, But we are seeing it now. Asplund is a dog on a rat out out there. I don’t see his counting stats continuing, but his analytics should and he looks like he can be a very effective NHLer in a Hecht role.

Bryson

• I didn’t know if this kid was an NHL defenceman going in to the season. I thought he fell off last year after a good start and had doubts about his size. He’s making me a believer. Even at the NHL level his skating stands out, especially with the puck on his stick. He gets up-ice so fast and squirts through traffic. And his feet and body positioning are serving him well in 1-on-1 situations. One thing I’ve noticed about Bryson is his easy confidence. Unlike Cozens and Dahlin, he doesn’t carry the team on his shoulders. He’s got a Cornerback’s mentality and he just competes. I look at the success of guys like Krug or Grelzcyk and I start to wonder if he might follow their paths.

Bjork

• The Sabres talked Bjork up as a player with untapped potential when they plucked him from the Bruins. I haven’t seen it. I see speed, I see puck skills and I see effort but none of those things delivered in more than the occasional flash. Bjork has yet to get more than a few brief glimpses in the top 6 and I think that’s because he doesn’t process at a top-6 level. I also don’t see the battle or the instincts to make him an effective bottom-sixer either. He’s a bit of an eager lost puppy out there and I’ve seen enough to move him from the “developing” list to the list of JAGs.

 

What has Sabrespace seen so far?

Edited November 7, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

Still don't really see Ruotsalainen as a long-term NHLer, have always been a little surprised with the "hype" there. Bjork is bjorking out. 

I actually do see Thompson as a C going forward, but I do not see him as a 2C on a good team. Bottom 6 C would be the right spot for him I think. He's been good but he hasn't been THAT good and he's getting the most favourable offensive usage on the team, last I checked. For me his success is a bit relative. Ideally we have better Cs getting those minutes in the future, pushing him into a more depth role I think he'd be pretty suited for. He's not a guy I see long term matching up with the 2Cs of the East. But an advantage on a lower line (capable of playing up for a bit if necessary)? Yes. 

Asplund is going to be a significant advantage in our B6 when considering matchups w/other teams

No concern with Cozens at all LT (still see the top 2 centres ceiling), merely the decision making process that led to him being in the situation he is this year so far. 

 Dahlin is a concern. Really like this dude though so I hope he finds consistency. Still confident he'll amount to no less than a good second pair D-man. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Honestly, DG's usage of R2 is as bad so far as RK's use of Skinner.  Move him to wing and play him with other decently skilled players.  Otherwise you are wasting his talents.

Thompson looks great really.  I've always like Bryson and now you are seeing why I didn't understand the acquisition of Butcher.  What is Butcher giving us that Bryson is giving but better?  

Asplund matured last year and is our best forward so far.  Cozens needs to be sent down and Jankowski recalled.  Dahlin needs a real defensive D partner. 

[drnkirishone]

45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Honestly, DG's usage of R2 is as bad so far as RK's use of Skinner.  Move him to wing and play him with other decently skilled players.  Otherwise you are wasting his talents.

Thompson looks great really.  I've always like Bryson and now you are seeing why I didn't understand the acquisition of Butcher.  What is Butcher giving us that Bryson is giving but better?  

Asplund matured last year and is our best forward so far.  Cozens needs to be sent down and Jankowski recalled.  Dahlin needs a real defensive D partner. 

Isn't R2 on a 5 or 6 game point streak?

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, drnkirishone said:

Isn't R2 on a 5 or 6 game point streak?

He only has 2 points this year so far 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, drnkirishone said:

Isn't R2 on a 5 or 6 game point streak?

You’re thinking of Asplund

[PerreaultForever]

Bjork still a "kid"? I kind of think he's already peaked. But he's a whatever to me.

Thompson has been a surprise. With his size I was locked on the idea of him getting more physical and being a power forward. My critique was he didn't seem to have the desire or meanness in him (so to speak). So hats off to Granato for finding him a role he can excel in. He's not overly physical, as I feared, but he's using that giraffe body and long reach to poke check and steal pucks and control a lot of the middle of the ice. Developing his passing skills and awareness and selecting his shooting moments a bit better. 

For lack of a better analogy he's kind of quarterbacking the line now and center seems to be a much better position for him.

[Huckleberry]

Thompson will be a great 3C for us if we are lucky.

[drnkirishone]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

You’re thinking of Asplund

Yep, that is it.

[DarthEbriate]

19 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Thompson looks great really.  I've always like Bryson and now you are seeing why I didn't understand the acquisition of Butcher.  What is Butcher giving us that Bryson is giving but better?  

Asplund matured last year and is our best forward so far.  Cozens needs to be sent down and Jankowski recalled.  Dahlin needs a real defensive D partner. 

Per Butcher -- there had to be better options, but we did get a 5th to take him for a season and he's only playing because Joker is hurt. In house, the alternative would be Brandon Davidson. Or maybe give Casey Fitzgerald a look, but I think that he's not as good as Butcher yet.

I'm leaning toward a Cozens/Jankowski swap as well once Mitts returns. Get Cozens-Krebs together with a vet who'll work the boards/net front (Mersch, or Murray if he can keep up with their speed) and keep JJP-Malone-Quinn together running amok.

16 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Thompson will be a great 3C for us if we are lucky.

When he strengthens up in his later 20s and learns that he doesn't have to just dangle but can go through people, he'll be a Brian Boyle with a lethal wrister and greater offensive prowess. As a 3C that's not a bad thing. I would like to see him with Girgs-Okposo a bit this season, just to see what that combination might look like against some top lines.

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Per Butcher -- there had to be better options, but we did get a 5th to take him for a season and he's only playing because Joker is hurt. In house, the alternative would be Brandon Davidson. Or maybe give Casey Fitzgerald a look, but I think that he's not as good as Butcher yet.

I'm leaning toward a Cozens/Jankowski swap as well once Mitts returns. Get Cozens-Krebs together with a vet who'll work the boards/net front (Mersch, or Murray if he can keep up with their speed) and keep JJP-Malone-Quinn together running amok.

When he strengthens up in his later 20s and learns that he doesn't have to just dangle but can go through people, he'll be a Brian Boyle with a lethal wrister and greater offensive prowess. As a 3C that's not a bad thing. I would like to see him with Girgs-Okposo a bit this season, just to see what that combination might look like against some top lines.

If Eakin doesn't shake off the rust quickly would like to see that Girgensons - Thompson - Okposo line sooner than later.  Hopefully he shakes off the cobwebs because that doesn't leave much for Asplund to work with.  Maybe Ruotsalainen bumps up a line & Eakin goes down to his slot.

They really need Mittelstadt back.

[Curt]

7 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Per Butcher -- there had to be better options, but we did get a 5th to take him for a season and he's only playing because Joker is hurt. In house, the alternative would be Brandon Davidson. Or maybe give Casey Fitzgerald a look, but I think that he's not as good as Butcher yet.

I'm leaning toward a Cozens/Jankowski swap as well once Mitts returns. Get Cozens-Krebs together with a vet who'll work the boards/net front (Mersch, or Murray if he can keep up with their speed) and keep JJP-Malone-Quinn together running amok.

When he strengthens up in his later 20s and learns that he doesn't have to just dangle but can go through people, he'll be a Brian Boyle with a lethal wrister and greater offensive prowess. As a 3C that's not a bad thing. I would like to see him with Girgs-Okposo a bit this season, just to see what that combination might look like against some top lines.

Long term, I’m thinking a Murray-Thompson-Asplund 3rd line sounds good.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Curt

[Doohickie]

On 11/7/2021 at 12:13 PM, dudacek said:

He gets up-ice so fast and squirts through traffic.

I noticed in the Caps game a rush where he entered the offensive zone and skated behind the net.  He attempted (if I recall correctly) a pass to the slot which was intercepted and the Caps started a rush the other way.  By the time the puck hit the blue line, Bryson was ahead of it, in a position to defend.  Dude flies like the wind.

[Doohickie]

Bjork I think is incomplete.  I think the injuries to other forwards put him into situations he's not well suited to.  I think between him and Caggiula, one of those guys will stick around beyond this season.

Hinostroza I've been kind of disappointed in.  He's got tools and gets where he needs to be, but at the critical moment he never seems to make the right play (i.e., SHOOT THE DAMN PUCK MORE).  He's got good speed but offensively doesn't use it effectively.

[Doohickie]

On 11/8/2021 at 9:09 AM, DarthEbriate said:

I'm leaning toward a Cozens/Jankowski swap as well once Mitts returns. Get Cozens-Krebs together with a vet who'll work the boards/net front (Mersch, or Murray if he can keep up with their speed) and keep JJP-Malone-Quinn together running amok.

On 11/8/2021 at 9:21 AM, Taro T said:

If Eakin doesn't shake off the rust quickly would like to see that Girgensons - Thompson - Okposo line sooner than later.  Hopefully he shakes off the cobwebs because that doesn't leave much for Asplund to work with.  Maybe Ruotsalainen bumps up a line & Eakin goes down to his slot.

They really need Mittelstadt back.

Yeah, they can't move Tage onto the Okie/Girgs line until Mitts is back.

Putting Eakin with Asplund and Skinner would be a waste.