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How can the Sabres upgrade in goal?


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17 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Ullmark is killing them when they are shorthanded.  He was 65th in the NHL last year with a .838 save percentage when the team was shorthanded.  That is abysmal. This team is losing a lot of games because he is well below average at making saves on the penalty kills.

 

By comparison, Miller was .882 over his career at this and Lehner is at .894 over his career.

Where are you finding your PK save % stats?

Also, I just want to add that not all high danger chances are created equal.  If the team was giving up lots of ultra high danger chances, that would be a major factor.

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32 minutes ago, Curt said:

Where are you finding your PK save % stats?

Also, I just want to add that not all high danger chances are created equal.  If the team was giving up lots of ultra high danger chances, that would be a major factor.

NHL.com

At some point you just need to call a spade a spade and we need to stop looking for excuses for him. He sucks at a major part of his job.

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31 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

NHL.com

At some point you just need to call a spade a spade and we need to stop looking for excuses for him. He sucks at a major part of his job.

I'd want to dig into it further have more information before making a definite conclusion. 

Because unlike skaters where your roles and the game changes extensively on the PK, goaltending is still just goaltending.  You're going to face more shots from in close and one time shots, but there's no drastic change in how you approach the position.  So unless Ullmark is just terrible at stopping one time shots and our defense is unnaturally good at preventing them 5v5, I'm led to believe to believe that his PK save percentage is largely a product of our team play on the kill.

With that said, I haven't watched enough film or dug into the stats enough to say one way or another.

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3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

NHL.com

At some point you just need to call a spade a spade and we need to stop looking for excuses for him. He sucks at a major part of his job.

I guess my question is, what is he actually bad at?

Penalty killing specifically is not a goalie skill.  It’s still stopping the puck.  I would need to define what exactly about his play is leading to a low PK save %.  Or if it’s even his play, or if its team PK.

Do you, or anyone else, know where to find goalie save % broken up by shot quality?  Or save % on high danger chances?

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4 hours ago, Curt said:

I guess my question is, what is he actually bad at?

Penalty killing specifically is not a goalie skill.  It’s still stopping the puck.  I would need to define what exactly about his play is leading to a low PK save %.  Or if it’s even his play, or if its team PK.

Do you, or anyone else, know where to find goalie save % broken up by shot quality?  Or save % on high danger chances?

Maybe it is? Just theorizing. Seeing through traffic as an attribute, perhaps? Bound to get more net front traffic on the PK. 

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32 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Maybe it is? Just theorizing. Seeing through traffic as an attribute, perhaps? Bound to get more net front traffic on the PK. 

I’m going to state the obvious: it’s harder to play goal when you are a man down.

It’s like 3-on3 overtime: it’s much more dependent on raw skill because there is less opportunity to play off the structure of your teammates and no where to hide. You can’t fake it as much because you are being asked to stop way more open looks.

The ability to anticipate where the puck is going and the athleticism to get there in position to make the save are paramount.

I suspect the goalies that do best on the PK are also the most talented.

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I’m going to state the obvious: it’s harder to play goal when you are a man down.

It’s like 3-on3 overtime: it’s much more dependent on raw skill because there is less opportunity to play off the structure of your teammates and no where to hide. You can’t fake it as much because you are being asked to stop way more open looks.

The ability to anticipate where the puck is going and the athleticism to get there in position to make the save are paramount.

I suspect the goalies that do best on the PK are also the most talented.

Correct me if I am wrong, wouldn't this imply the PK is where we are getting the best representation of Ullmark's raw skill, then? Where he has a poor sv% relative to others? Is his good sv% at ES the loaded number, then, Ullmark a benefactor of Krueger's defensive structure?

Thankfully, they've sought to address the PK structure with outside additions. If your analysis (and my interpretation of it) is correct, though, it makes supplementing the GT even more important - I'd imagine with the raw offensive skill we added, and with the loss of a player we relied on for heavy defensive minutes, our structure may become less stringent. We need Ullmark insurance, and a better option than Hutton.  

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3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Maybe it is? Just theorizing. Seeing through traffic as an attribute, perhaps? Bound to get more net front traffic on the PK. 

 

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m going to state the obvious: it’s harder to play goal when you are a man down.

It’s like 3-on3 overtime: it’s much more dependent on raw skill because there is less opportunity to play off the structure of your teammates and no where to hide. You can’t fake it as much because you are being asked to stop way more open looks.

The ability to anticipate where the puck is going and the athleticism to get there in position to make the save are paramount.

I suspect the goalies that do best on the PK are also the most talented.

 

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Correct me if I am wrong, wouldn't this imply the PK is where we are getting the best representation of Ullmark's raw skill, then? Where he has a poor sv% relative to others? Is his good sv% at ES the loaded number, then, Ullmark a benefactor of Krueger's defensive structure?

Thankfully, they've sought to address the PK structure with outside additions. If your analysis (and my interpretation of it) is correct, though, it makes supplementing the GT even more important - I'd imagine with the raw offensive skill we added, and with the loss of a player we relied on for heavy defensive minutes, our structure may become less stringent. We need Ullmark insurance, and a better option than Hutton.  

Seeing through traffic, lateral movement, reacting to passes from behind the net to the front, and reflexes are all premium skills on the PK.  Because those are what is needed to lessen the typical dangerous scoring chances on a PK.

Staying square to a shooter, reading rushes against - breakaways & other odd man rushes, rebound control, combo vertical & lateral movement, holding the post, reacting to wraparounds, & reflexes are the skills that lessen the typical dangerous scoring chances at ES.

Ideally, a goalie is good at a plethora of these skills, but a solid goalie at ES can have issues on PK, and vice versa.  And for the most part, technical proficiency is more important at ES and raw reaction/reflexes dominate on PK, IMHO.  At ES, you block as much of the net as is possible & use/trust your teammates to keep those cross ice & backdoor passes and rebound chances at a minimum.  And understand the game will enough to read whether the pass is the right play for the attacker or that the shot is coming..  At PK, you have to be deep in your crease & ready to just react when the puck moves.  Having the skaters pressure the puck ideally causes passes to be just off & shots to not always pick that corner perfectly so the reactions are good enough to get there.  Again IMHO.

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6 hours ago, Thorny said:

Maybe it is? Just theorizing. Seeing through traffic as an attribute, perhaps? Bound to get more net front traffic on the PK. 

I think seeing through traffic is a skill, one that’s used both at ES and on the PK, but probably more on the PK.

Thats a hypothetical example of what I mean when I ask what specifically about Ullmark’s play makes him bad on the PK.  Just saying that he is bad at PK because his SV% is low there is not very convincing to me.

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5 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m going to state the obvious: it’s harder to play goal when you are a man down.

It’s like 3-on3 overtime: it’s much more dependent on raw skill because there is less opportunity to play off the structure of your teammates and no where to hide. You can’t fake it as much because you are being asked to stop way more open looks.

The ability to anticipate where the puck is going and the athleticism to get there in position to make the save are paramount.

I suspect the goalies that do best on the PK are also the most talented.

I’m kind of going to disagree here.  PK/PP is often a very structured scenario where both teams are trying to create/prevent openings in very specific areas.

I think that on the PK a goalie may actually be MORE dependent upon their teammates to execute than at ES.  A failure to execute/mistake by the PK team results in a prime scoring chance a very high percentage of the time, probably more often than a similar mistake would at ES.

In general, I think that the level of coordination between goalie and defense is greater than we often realize.  I think they are just about always trying to funnel shots to certain areas, prevent certain types of chances, and play scenarios certain ways in order to play into a goalie’s strengths and protect their weaknesses.

Just what I’m thinking.

Edited by Curt
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11 hours ago, Curt said:

I’m kind of going to disagree here.  PK/PP is often a very structured scenario where both teams are trying to create/prevent openings in very specific areas.

I think that on the PK a goalie may actually be MORE dependent upon their teammates to execute than at ES.  A failure to execute/mistake by the PK team results in a prime scoring chance a very high percentage of the time, probably more often than a similar mistake would at ES.

In general, I think that the level of coordination between goalie and defense is greater than we often realize.  I think they are just about always trying to funnel shots to certain areas, prevent certain types of chances, and play scenarios certain ways in order to play into a goalie’s strengths and protect their weaknesses.

Just what I’m thinking.

I don't think this really contradicts what I'm trying to say, at least I don't disagree with what you've posted.

Modern ES NHL goaltending is about being very big in the net and always square to the shooter. If you are technically perfect and your D executes the way the coach draws it up, you literally never have to make a save. Every shot hits you.

Your defence fails to execute (breaks down) much more often on the PK, meaning you have to make a save, by lunging across the crease or throwing out an arm or a leg, as opposed being in position to block a shot.

Edited by dudacek
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7 hours ago, dudacek said:

I don't think this really contradicts what I'm trying to say,it least I don't disagree with what you've posted.

Modern ES NHL goaltending is about being very big in the net and always square to the shooter. If you are technically perfect and your D executes the way the coach draws it up, you literally never have to make a save. Every shot hits you.

Your defence fails to execute (breaks down) much more often on the PK, meaning you have to make a save, by lunging across the crease or throwing out an arm or a leg, as opposed being in position to block a shot.

Much more succinct than my take.  🍺

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OK, the Sabres are now done with their arbitration/RFA deals.  Neither AZ nor Columbus has anyone going to arbitration. 

Miller for Kuemper, please, and soon.

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42 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

OK, the Sabres are now done with their arbitration/RFA deals.  Neither AZ nor Columbus has anyone going to arbitration. 

Miller for Kuemper, please, and soon.

I don't think this makes sense for Arizona.  From what I've read, their goals for moving a goalie are to cut costs and gain draft picks.  Miller doesn't really help them with either, and they have their own vet defensemen they're looking to trade.

That's probably the sticking point with a Coyotes trade.  They want to cut salary, and we don't have enough cap space to take on Raanta or Kuemper without sending salary back.

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On 10/28/2020 at 11:37 AM, Curt said:

I guess my question is, what is he actually bad at?

Penalty killing specifically is not a goalie skill.  It’s still stopping the puck.  I would need to define what exactly about his play is leading to a low PK save %.  Or if it’s even his play, or if its team PK.

Do you, or anyone else, know where to find goalie save % broken up by shot quality?  Or save % on high danger chances?

 

Ullmark ranked 35th in the NHL at saving High Danger shots on the penalty kill at .782. Hutton was worse at .767 and ranked 40th.

However, they both faced among the most High Danger shots per 60 minutes on the PK at 21.99(Hutton) and 20.13(Ullmark) which ranked 11th and 15th most...meaning the Sabres give up a lot of these chances on the PK.

That being said, they are both well above the expected GAA/60 minutes allowed on the PK even with that taken into account.  Ullmark has a  PK GAA of 9.15 but is only expected to allow 7.17, nearly a 2 goal difference, and Hutton is even worse with a PK GAA of 10.23 but an expected GAA of 7.74, over 2.5 goals worse.

However, somehow they are even WORSE relative to the rest of the NHL at even strength at High Danger Save Percentage, ranking 56th(Hutton) and 65th(Ullmark) in the NHL at .805 and .782 respectively.  

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=r&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

So clearly this is an issue with the goaltenders themselves even when normalized relative to the rest of the NHL...they simply suck at stopping High Danger Shots on the PK but Ullmark is especially bad at stopping them at even strength.

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11 minutes ago, Shootica said:

I don't think this makes sense for Arizona.  From what I've read, their goals for moving a goalie are to cut costs and gain draft picks.  Miller doesn't really help them with either, and they have their own vet defensemen they're looking to trade.

That's probably the sticking point with a Coyotes trade.  They want to cut salary, and we don't have enough cap space to take on Raanta or Kuemper without sending salary back.

I agree with this post, but I am highly skeptical they can do both with the same trade.

It’s an either-or: If they want a high pick, they aren’t gaining space, if they want space, they aren’t getting a high pick.

Look at the market and what $4 million players have been going for.

Edited by dudacek
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15 minutes ago, Shootica said:

I don't think this makes sense for Arizona.  From what I've read, their goals for moving a goalie are to cut costs and gain draft picks.  Miller doesn't really help them with either, and they have their own vet defensemen they're looking to trade.

That's probably the sticking point with a Coyotes trade.  They want to cut salary, and we don't have enough cap space to take on Raanta or Kuemper without sending salary back.

I think you are right that AZ will only trade Kuemper in a deal that cuts their payroll.  If the Sabres retained, say, $1.375MM of Miller's salary, then a Kuemper-for-Miller deal would give AZ a $2MM gain in cap space.

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3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I agree with this post, but I am highly skeptical can do both with the same trade.

It’s an either-or: If they want a high pick, they aren’t gaining space, if they want space, they aren’t getting a high pick.

Look at the market and what $4 million players have been going for.

Oh I agree.  And the market is even trickier for them because there's only a few teams that realistically are in the goalie market.  Us, Carolina, and maybe Chicago but my gut says they're going to play the 'tank through lousy goaltending' game.  Edmonton should but they probably are done there.

I figure that they'll only move Kuemper if someone meets their asking price.  Which I'd bet doesn't happen.  They'll likely end up trading Raanta for next to nothing with whatever cap savings they can get.

I think our best route here is to trade Miller to a third team beforehand.

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4 hours ago, Shootica said:

Oh I agree.  And the market is even trickier for them because there's only a few teams that realistically are in the goalie market.  Us, Carolina, and maybe Chicago but my gut says they're going to play the 'tank through lousy goaltending' game.  Edmonton should but they probably are done there.

I figure that they'll only move Kuemper if someone meets their asking price.  Which I'd bet doesn't happen.  They'll likely end up trading Raanta for next to nothing with whatever cap savings they can get.

I think our best route here is to trade Miller to a third team beforehand.

Miller or Montour for picks, deal whatever pick to AZ for Kuemper. Done. 

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If this team does actually look to improve in net, I wonder if we could dangle a late pick in front of Chicago for them to take Hutton. They have two younger goalies right now without a whole lot of NHL experience between them, both of whom would probably pass through waivers with no issue. 

They seem to be going down the 'tanking through bad goaltending path' and don't need him, but it could be smart to throw a vet in that goaltending room given just how inexperienced it is and how their season may go.

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1 hour ago, Shootica said:

If this team does actually look to improve in net, I wonder if we could dangle a late pick in front of Chicago for them to take Hutton. They have two younger goalies right now without a whole lot of NHL experience between them, both of whom would probably pass through waivers with no issue. 

They seem to be going down the 'tanking through bad goaltending path' and don't need him, but it could be smart to throw a vet in that goaltending room given just how inexperienced it is and how their season may go.

Good question.

Really believe the Sabres should retain Hutton as an insurance policy should they manage to upgrade so haven't really thought about where he might end up should Adams be thinking along the lines of most here that trading Hutton away is the best course of action.

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