GDT: Sabres at Ducks ?7p PT

[Randall Flagg]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So Jones is better early in their careers? Just different? I mean, he was a -23 his first season, to Dahlin's -13. Plus minus is bad and all that, but I'm sure there were a few giveaways in there. 

Would you say your view of Seth Jones is generally higher than the league's as a whole? I don't think the layman would consider Seth Jones as a successful result for Dahlin. 

Probably, because I think even right now there are only 2-3 defenseman I'd take before him for a game right this second. Maybe only 1. And I doubt that is the case for most of the league

And no, Jones wasn't better, but just like we never saw Dahlin's offense in Seth, we haven't seen Seth's cerebral, calm, safe defensive zone play from even his early years in Dahlin, so it's not as if they're equal on one end and Dahlin blows him out of the water on the other. That's what I was pointing out with the last sentence. There are very, very few defensemen of any age (including 19 yo Heiskanen last year) that I've seen with the consistent defensive zone gaffes Dahlin has had, and it ain't just me, since inkman and PA talk about it plenty. They don't really bother me all that much, because I value long-term play far more than highs and lows of single games, much less single shifts. But it's definitely still a thing and not unreasonable for inkman to feel the way he does

Edited October 17, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

And I'd be HAPPY with that result, in that the Sabres would have a Norris caliber franchise D for years. I wouldn't call it a maximization of Dahlin's pre-draft potential, but I wouldn't be upset either.

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Probably, because I think even right now there are only 2-3 defenseman I'd take before him for a game right this second. Maybe only 1. And I doubt that is the case for most of the league

And no, Jones wasn't better, but just like we never saw Dahlin's offense in Seth, we haven't seen Seth's cerebral, calm, safe defensive zone play from even his early years in Dahlin, so it's not as if they're equal on one end and Dahlin blows him out of the water on the other. That's what I was pointing out with the last sentence. There are very, very few defensemen of any age (including 19 yo Heiskanen last year) that I've seen with the consistent defensive zone gaffes Dahlin has had, and it ain't just me, since inkman and PA talk about it plenty. They don't really bother me all that much, because I value long-term play far more than highs and lows of single games, much less single shifts. But it's definitely still a thing and not unreasonable for inkman to feel the way he does

It's just a wild comparison to me. We can hash out strengths and weaknesses for days, but I think it's clear that Dahlin's rookie year, at a year younger than Jones, vastly outstripped what Jones did, in totality. His rookie season was objectively much better than Jones. There's a reason Seth Jones was traded. I'm not saying it was a good trade, it wasn't but that it was even on the table means something. 

I just don't understand why Dahlin can't be afforded the same relative development trajectory as Jones has/you see him still having. Why shouldn't he be able to develop as much as Jones has. You are saying you'd be happy with Dahlin stagnating relative to the development Jones went through. 

Dahlin was way ahead after turn 1, after turn 2, and you'd be satisfied with a dead heat by the end of the race. I guess it's just depends on the perspective, but I can't look at it that way.  

Edited October 18, 2019 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It's just a wild comparison to me. We can hash out strengths and weaknesses for days, but I think it's clear that Dahlin's rookie year, at a year younger than Jones, vastly outstripped what Jones did, in totality. His rookie season was objectively much better than Jones. There's a reason Seth Jones was traded. I'm not saying it was a good trade, it wasn't but that it was even on the table means something. 

I just don't understand why Dahlin can't be afforded the same relative development trajectory as Jones has/you see him still having. Why shouldn't he be able to develop as much as Jones has. You are saying you'd be happy with Dahlin stagnating relative to the development Jones went through. 

"There's a reason Jones was traded" is that reason because Ellis, Ekholm, prime Weber, Josi were all above him in the depth chart, and they got a 70+ point 1C in return straight up (in a season where the scoring was so low the leading scorer did not touch 90 points, so Johansen was the 7th best offensive center in the league) ? ?

Dahlin WOULD have developed massively to be capable of winning several Norris trophies. Only the GOATs win multiple Norris trophies. He's not close to one right now, so I don't see how that would imply stagnating development. Don't forget, I'm comparing to what I think will have happened to Jones by the time his career is over, not what those garbage award voters (especially for the Norris, those guys don't have a ***** clue what they're doing) have said Jones has done to this point.

 

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

I think Ullmark's quote was actually more representative. 

I think Ullmark's comment is misguided.   Krueger is more on point, they didn't lose because they were bullied, they lost because they didn't capitalize on the PPs and they tried to get too cute with the puck. 

McCabe had a nice quote when asked about the physicality.... "that's hockey". 

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

"There's a reason Jones was traded" is that reason because Ellis, Ekholm, prime Weber, Josi were all above him in the depth chart, and they got a 70+ point 1C in return straight up (in a season where the scoring was so low the leading scorer did not touch 90 points, so Johansen was the 7th best offensive center in the league) ? ?

Dahlin WOULD have developed massively to be capable of winning several Norris trophies. Only the GOATs win multiple Norris trophies. He's not close to one right now, so I don't see how that would imply stagnating development. Don't forget, I'm comparing to what I think will have happened to Jones by the time his career is over, not what those garbage award voters (especially for the Norris, those guys don't have a ***** clue what they're doing) have said Jones has done to this point.

 

And they wouldn't have moved a player with Dahlin's pedigree (and early results) in the same situation. 

Again, I won't be satisfied with less relative development than Jones, with regards to Dahlin. My expectations are high. He was a much better player year one, I expect that to continue.

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

I think Ullmark's comment is misguided.   Krueger is more on point, they didn't lose because they were bullied, they lost because they didn't capitalize on the PPs and they tried to get too cute with the puck. 

McCabe had a nice quote when asked about the physicality.... "that's hockey". 

Well, I think McCabe is wrong. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

For a comparison, the 7th highest scoring center last year was Barkov. I'm not saying I'd trade Dahlin for Barkov, but if we were going to be left with the best D in the league anyway and had zero top six centers in our organization, in a more accurate mapping of the situation...it'd look like less egregious of an idea. 

Jones wasn't traded for nothing, and Johansen hasn't been a disappointment for the most part, and still that trade was bad. 

I'm no longer talking about Dahlin, just daydreaming about Jonessssssssssssss

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

It's your own fault for expecting a fully formed Norris winner at age 19, if you are already changing your long term expectations. 

Well, in fairness to Inky, there have been posters here that have been saying Dahlin will be the Sabres best defenseman THIS season.  IMHO, he hasn't been that yet even though he has had and will continue to have the most points of any of the Sabres defensemen. 

His room for growth defensively combined with some of those pucks rolling off his stick when he does have it have been a counterbalance to his ability on the rush and his overall passing.

Dahlin will be fine and if there were all all Sophomore team, he'd be a starter.   But it would be almost impossible for him to have lived up to THIS SEASON's hype.

Fully expect over his career for him to score comparably to Karlsson.  But also believe he'll be able to play physical in his own end, which Erik can't do.

[Curt]

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Well, in fairness to Inky, there have been posters here that have been saying Dahlin will be the Sabres best defenseman THIS season.  IMHO, he hasn't been that yet even though he has had and will continue to have the most points of any of the Sabres defensemen. 

Possible unpopular opinion:  Dahlin has been and will continue to be the Sabres best defenseman this season.

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

"There's a reason Jones was traded" is that reason because Ellis, Ekholm, prime Weber, Josi were all above him in the depth chart, and they got a 70+ point 1C in return straight up (in a season where the scoring was so low the leading scorer did not touch 90 points, so Johansen was the 7th best offensive center in the league) ? ?

Dahlin WOULD have developed massively to be capable of winning several Norris trophies. Only the GOATs win multiple Norris trophies. He's not close to one right now, so I don't see how that would imply stagnating development. Don't forget, I'm comparing to what I think will have happened to Jones by the time his career is over, not what those garbage award voters (especially for the Norris, those guys don't have a ***** clue what they're doing) have said Jones has done to this point.

 

On another point, I don’t really agree he isn’t close to winning a Norris. How often do people complain the Norris just goes to the D with the most points? I don’t think he’s far away from leading all D in points, could happen as soon as this season. You said in this very post the award voters don't know what they are doing. 

Rightly or wrongly, it’s a massive factor in how the Norris is awarded. 4 of last 8 winners led in points. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Thorny

[inkman]

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

Possible unpopular opinion:  Dahlin has been and will continue to be the Sabres best defenseman this season.

Not defensively 

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

For a comparison, the 7th highest scoring center last year was Barkov. I'm not saying I'd trade Dahlin for Barkov, but if we were going to be left with the best D in the league anyway and had zero top six centers in our organization, in a more accurate mapping of the situation...it'd look like less egregious of an idea. 

Jones wasn't traded for nothing, and Johansen hasn't been a disappointment for the most part, and still that trade was bad. 

I'm no longer talking about Dahlin, just daydreaming about Jonessssssssssssss

Johansen isn’t CLOSE to Barkov when considering 200 foot impact. It’s more like trading Dahlin for Huberdeau. 

And I wouldn’t entertain the idea of trading Dahlin for Barkov for a moment. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, Curt said:

Possible unpopular opinion:  Dahlin has been and will continue to be the Sabres best defenseman this season.

He was last season. 

[Curt]

12 minutes ago, inkman said:

Not defensively 

Overall.  

He makes consistently good plays in the defensive zone also.  The occasional gaffes negate some of that good work, but the impression that they leave on the brain is greater than the actual affect on the ice.  IMO

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, inkman said:

Not defensively 

No, he was not. But there's no rule that says you have to be the best at every individual aspect to be the best overall defender. There's no D on the team that pulls away from Dahlin on defense to a further degree than what he pulls away from said D man in offence, and transitioning. 

Who's better than Dahlin on this team's D corps. Jake freaking McCabe? No. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Thorny

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, Curt said:

Possible unpopular opinion:  Dahlin has been and will continue to be the Sabres best defenseman this season.

Expect that's actually a popular opinion around here.  But, I wouldn't agree that he has been their best.

It's basically a matter of how the defensive and offensive skills of a D-man are weighted relative to each other; so we'd likely not reach agreement on the point.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Expect that's actually a popular opinion around here.  But, I wouldn't agree that he has been their best.

It's basically a matter of how the defensive and offensive skills of a D-man are weighted relative to each other; so we'd likely not reach agreement on the point.

If we care at all about what the advanced stats say, no D man had close to the positive impacts Dahlin had last year. All aspects of play considered. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Thorny

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Expect that's actually a popular opinion around here.  But, I wouldn't agree that he has been their best.

It's basically a matter of how the defensive and offensive skills of a D-man are weighted relative to each other; so we'd likely not reach agreement on the point.

Maybe not too unpopular, I honestly wasn’t sure how many would push back.
 

I think you have to weight the offensive and defensive contributions of a player equally.  One goal scored is just as good as one goal prevented and vice versa.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He was last season. 

There is definitely a recency bias in my opinion, but after Montour came in he played the best of any of the Sabres D last season IMHO.

Dahlin was wearing down by then.  Again, IMHO.  And that is the Dahlin that I'm rating them off of (which may or may not be fair to him).

[bunomatic]

Ralph did say in training camp I believe that Dahlin has the o.k. To make mistakes so as not to take away his natural ability and creativity. They don’t want to coach that ability out of him by telling him not to take chances and make mistakes. I don’t think there are many if any other d-men in the league who are coached this way so yeah you’re going to see gaffs with Rasmus but you’ll also occasionally see incredible creativity. I’m good with it.

[PerreaultForever]

14 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Did we fall apart because of aggressive checking or did we lose because they figured out our PP? 

 

both. Part of figuring out the power play was being aggressive against it, hence my comment that Olofsson has to pass quicker when the shot isn't there and the motion can't stop. 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Maybe not too unpopular, I honestly wasn’t sure how many would push back.
 

I think you have to weight the offensive and defensive contributions of a player equally.  One goal scored is just as good as one goal prevented and vice versa.

True, a goal scored is as valuable (in general) as a goal not given up.  But, was Housley a better D-man or was Ramsey?  IMHO, it's not even close and I'd take Mike over Phil every single time.  There are many here that view it differently and loved Housley for his scoring.  I couldn't get past his give aways and weak play in his own zone.

And that isn't to say Dahlin is soft.  He isn't.  But, as important as he was on the Sabres PP goal, he was equally as important on the waived off Ducks goal and the 1st 1 that counted.

And, in a season or 2, Dahlin will be better in his own end and because he'll have some weight behind his passes and shots he doesn't have now, he'll also be better in the offensive end.  And let's hope he gets better near the boards in the neutral zone.  (I expect he'll do that too.)

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

Ralph did say in training camp I believe that Dahlin has the o.k. To make mistakes so as not to take away his natural ability and creativity. They don’t want to coach that ability out of him by telling him not to take chances and make mistakes. I don’t think there are many if any other d-men in the league who are coached this way so yeah you’re going to see gaffs with Rasmus but you’ll also occasionally see incredible creativity. I’m good with it.

And he'll learn from those mistakes.  You never truly know your limits unt you exceed them.  And in something like hockey, where Young guys continue to improve, where those limits are today are not where they'll be next week, next month, or next year.

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, Taro T said:

True, a goal scored is as valuable (in general) as a goal not given up.  But, was Housley a better D-man or was Ramsey?  IMHO, it's not even close and I'd take Mike over Phil every single time.  There are many here that view it differently and loved Housley for his scoring.  I couldn't get past his give aways and weak play in his own zone.

And that isn't to say Dahlin is soft.  He isn't.  But, as important as he was on the Sabres PP goal, he was equally as important on the waived off Ducks goal and the 1st 1 that counted.

And, in a season or 2, Dahlin will be better in his own end and because he'll have some weight behind his passes and shots he doesn't have now, he'll also be better in the offensive end.  And let's hope he gets better near the boards in the neutral zone.  (I expect he'll do that too.)

Can’t say for sure, as I never saw either play.  ?

I understand your viewpoint though, even if I don’t agree.  To me, it’s not just scoring vs D with Dahlin though.  He also excels at moving the puck out of the D zone, which is one of the very most important aspects of playing D to me.  It prevents the opposition from establishing control in the zone in the first place.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Can’t say for sure, as I never saw either play.  ?

I understand your viewpoint though, even if I don’t agree.  To me, it’s not just scoring vs D with Dahlin though. He also excels at moving the puck out of the D zone, which is one of the very most important aspects of playing D to me.  It prevents the opposition from establishing control in the zone in the first place.

He has.  But he's also had a lot of ooopsies on those since the latter parts of last season.  (And, I'm OK with a large chunk of those.  It's part of the maturation process and he & the Sabres will be better for it in the long run.)