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The 2013 Draft: Top 15 players

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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It's summer. Nothing is going on. Let's rank the top 15 players from the exceedingly deep 2013 draft. Why top 15? Because I don't want an extensive list. Just the top guys. Cream of the crop.

 

Quick note, Fucale is not in the top 15, sorry NS

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Thorny Hall of Famer

Thorny

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1. Seth Jones

2. Aleksander Barkov

3. Rasmus Ristolainen

4. Alexander Wennberg

5. Sean Monahan

6. Nathan MacKinnon

7. Elias Lindholm

8. Jake Guentzel

9. Jonathan Drouin

10. Bo Horvat

Edited by Thorny
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Randall Flagg Hall of Famer

Randall Flagg

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For me there's a pretty obvious top 5, but I only have vague ideas about how they should be ordered so I'll do a little searching. They are Risto/MacK/Monahan/Barkov/Jones. I know I likely have one of Jones/Barkov as 1 and Risto as 5, but other than that I'm not sure yet.

 

For starters, let's look at how they were used by their teams this past season:

2013draft.jpg

The red lump (minus Jones) contains the centers and the blue has the two defensemen. So Risto was used (as we are all aware at this point) in tougher situations than Jones (who I wouldn't call sheltered, just maybe not on the Jackets' "shutdown pairing", and why would he be with the skills he possesses?) MacKinnon gets used as if he was the only center the Avs had worth anything last year (didn't Duchene go on like a 25 game goalless streak?). I wouldn't read too much into his good CF% relative because his team was likely tank-sabres-bad in that regard. Barkov wasn't used as heavily last year as he has been before likely due to the defensive revelations of Vincent Trocheck. Monahan is in a similar situation where his slightly lacking two-way play (he is so young after all) combined with the fact that they have that Backlund character who excels at two-way hockey made it an easy decision to use him with heavy offensive minutes with Gaudreau (another player who can't play defense yet).

 

But I don't really care about these usages, I want to see what the player does with it.

Aleksander Barkov

GP: 61, G: 21, A: 31, P: 52

CF%: 55.6, CF% Rel: 5.2

5v5 G/60:1.06

5v5 A/60: 1.13

5v5 P/60: 2.19

Last two seasons: 111 points in 127 games, 0.87 points per game.

barkov.jpg

 

Sean Monahan

GP: 82, G: 27, A: 31, P: 58

CF%: 50.3, CF% Rel: -0.2

5v5 G/60: 0.79

5v5 A/60: 1.13

5v5 P/60: 1.92

Last two seasons: 121 points in 163 games, 0.74 points per game.

monahan.jpg
 
Nathan MacKinnon

GP: 82, G: 16, A: 37, P: 53

CF%: 51.9, CF% Rel: 4.4

5v5 G/60: 0.52

5v5 A/60: 1.14

5v5 P/60: 1.66

Last two seasons: 105 points in 154 games, 0.68 points per game.

Mac_Kinnon.jpg

 

There's a smattering of numbers and charts. Now I'll do a more qualitative pro-con list for all of them.

Barkov

Pros: Barkov was the best even strength producer of the three centers, which I would have guessed - his ES play is downright dominant. He can dominate the boards like Sidney (not to the degree of course) and is Bergeron-lite in terms of hockey sense and passing ability. When we played Florida this year his line would absolutely demolish us, hemming us into our zone for the entirety of multiple shifts. This is obviously good, because even strength success is a sustainable way of winning, as most of the game is played there. Even during his first two seasons where his scoring was quite low, coming from Finland, he was lauded for his two-way play. In just his 3rd season, as a 20 year old, he finished 6th in Selke voting. (2nd in Lady Byng too.) I firmly believe that he will be a multiple Selke winner as he's already a top 5 two-way center in the game and is just barely able to legally drink in the U.S. This is a player you can build a cup winner around as a 1C, and is the only player so far in this draft I feel confident saying that about, provided...

Cons: he stay healthy. The dude is injured every single year. Now, the injuries always appear to be unrelated and fluky, but at some point I'd like to see him play 79+ games. This is the only hole I see in this player.

 

Monahan

Pros: Sean is a very, very good goal-scoring center. The last three seasons he's been a lock for 27 or more (27 each of the past 2 seasons and 31 as a 20yr old in his 2nd season). In today's NHL, that is incredibly valuable. He's no Eichel defensively either - he has a top 20 (it was 20th) Selke finish as well already. He has insane chemistry with Gaudreau, a borderline franchise-level winger. People laud his locker room presence and leadership abilities. He should be a letter-wearing top center for a decade and a half on that team. His ability to find and attack soft spots in the offensive zone is impressive and he has good vision and great finishing ability. He has a comfortable lead in terms of production from the draft class so far. He is an iron man who doesn't miss many games. He is without a doubt the SAFEST pick among forwards in this draft so far. His steady progression in every category in the chart above is impressive.

Cons: He's a little streaky and his assist totals are lower than you might expect from a center (but nothing unreasonable). He's not elite at any one particular thing, so I don't think he'll ever have a chance to crack the top 10 in NHL scoring or to get above 70 points, and so I'm not convinced he can be in the "top 5 centers in the game" tier at any point in his career. But if you can get this player as the 6th pick in any draft, you do it and run away laughing. He can certainly be a key piece in a team that fights deep into the playoffs.

 

MacKinnon

Pros: MacKinnon's physical abilities and skill set are insane, at or above the level of even Jack Eichel. he skates like the wind, has unbelievable stickhandling abilities and can fire lasers from anywhere on the ice. If he can figure the game's speed out mentally and pull everything together, he has the potential to be second only to McDavid. Even though his production has slowly declined from his rookie year, the tire fire that has been the Avs is a big factor and he has still put up respectable numbers and a gorgeous highlight reel. He managed to be a positive possession player on a team that was worse in the standings than the tank Sabres and was considered a huge part of helping the locker room get through the season, always staying positive and playing his hardest. He's developing chemistry with Rantanen, who appears to be an absolute stud of a winger. 

Cons: MacKinnon has had injury troubles twice, though he's sandwiched those two seasons with full 82 game sets. As mentioned before, he hasn't built off of that incredible rookie season. But his biggest issue might be his hockey sense and ability to use teammates - there's a very real chance that he never does catch up to the speed of the NHL game mentally, many great players don't. For every time he blows through defensemen breaking ankles and scoring, he tries and fails 10 other times. He's one of the most enigmatic players to be taken at the top of the draft in a long time. But even if he never changes, he's a guy you'd love to get to watch every night on your team. 

 

Personally, taking all of this into account, I role the dice with Barkov figuring out his injury issues and I take him first. Because this is a little risky, I rank safe Sean Monahan second, and because I think hockey sense is incredibly important and worry about MacKinnon's, he follows up. 

 

As far as the defensemen go, I won't analyze Ristolainen too deeply here because we've all already done that here many times. Seth Jones is a complete stud with amazing skating, and a great first pass, giving him a huge advantage in breaking pucks out of the zone, a vital skill set for a defenseman to have. He's getting better and better defensively and the development given to him from his rookie year in Nashville through last year in Columbus has been as close to ideal as possible. He will be an elite minute-munching defenseman that contributes a lot offensively and can be trusted defensively for a long time, IMO. 

 

So my final order for this top five, and then after that, goes
1.) Aleksander Barkov

2.) Seth Jones

3.) Sean Monahan

4.) Nathan MacKinnon

5.) Rasmus Ristolainen (who can jump up to 2 or fall back, depending on if he can figure out his defensive zone play with easier minutes, which I think he will as there have been numerous examples of him giving up the blue line as instructed against every instinct in his aggressive personality)

6.) Bo Horvat

7.) Jonathan Drouin

8.) Alex Wennberg

9.) Max Domi

10.) Brett Pesce

11.) Andre Burakovsky

12.) Josh Morrissey

13.) Elias Lindholm

Edited by Randall Flagg
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Thorny Hall of Famer

Thorny

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Randall,

 

Funny, it took me 30 seconds to post my top 3.  I bet it took you a lot longer to post your awesome analysis.

 

EDIT TO ADD:

 

And, Liger wants a top 15.

 

:P

True. But Randall's analysis is what I'm looking for, if I'm holding a fresh coffee. Or Evening beer. Or pipe. :p

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