Sorry to Say: The Tank Was A Swing And A Miss

[Thorny]

Eichel is a better playmaker than Matthews, and it'll stay that way. I'm happy with the better playmaking centre. And Eichel is a more valuable commodity than Laine.

 

I still believe this is the best Auston Matthews we'll ever see. His first 2 years will be fantastic... he'll sign his mega-deal and pack it in... because money matters to him...more than team, more than education, more than character.

 

Well, at least it can be said that there's a reasonably high chance he never again scores as many goals as he did in first NHL game. From a single game goal scoring point of view, he may be past his peak. ;)

Edited April 19, 2017 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

How many NHL GMs would take Eichel over Matthews?

 

I'm guessing zero.

[Thorny]

How many NHL GMs would take Eichel over Matthews?

I'm guessing zero.

With due respect, there is no way this is true.

 

Bob McKenzie, multiple times, has said that in the eyes of league scouts, Eichel was the consensus #2, and Matthews #3, had Matthews been eligible for the 2015 draft. He reiterated that on TSN again, earlier this season.

 

Now, I'm sure Matthews has changed at least some minds, but plenty are still going to be on the Eichel bandwagon considering he had a better season than Matthews this year, and that'll do nothing to take away from their initial viewpoint.

Edited April 19, 2017 by Thorny

[WildCard]

This thread is ######.

 

The goal of the tank was to move out expiring assets in favor of drafting elite talent, based on two facts: 1) Cup contenders are built around elite talent and 2) in this era of CBA, it has been deomnstrated that acquiring that elite talent through trade and FA is extraordinarily unlikely.

 

The tank successfully positioned the Sabres to draft elite talent.

 

The Sabres successfully drafted elite talent.

 

They must now build a team around that talent in order to position themselves as a contender.

 

They have not completed the building of a team around that elite talent.

 

The tank did not fail. It was not a swing and miss. The rebuild is ongoing. Elements of the rebuild, however, may be considered to be swing and miss (ahem, defense).

 

If you've given up on the elite talent we've drafted, or blame them for the team's shortcomings, you're a fool.

/thread

Of all the narratives about the Sabres, this one needs to die the most painful death of them all.

 

The definition of insanity was trying to use the same coach and gm for 16 years and think something was going to change.

 

Teams get good all the time without discarding 2 full seasons.

Teams get good bt getting elite talent. Some teams get lucky and find that in the late rounds. But the best chance at assuring you get elite talent is to draft the highest, and the best chance at that is to tank. None of that is remotely debatable

On sport talk radio 1040 out of Vancouver this a.m. they were lamenting how they would have to put up with Edmonton/Toronto duking it out for the cup for the next 10 years.

 

Cue the sound of crickets...

 

Not a word of Buffalo crossed their lips.

 

Thats the perception pretty much this side of the border. Not much talk of Eichel when discussing the other top picks of the last couple years. Not much talk of the sabres at all actually. Until this franchise gets serious about winning we're not even in the conversation.

That's the only reason this thread exists, and it has nothing to do with Eichel, at all. We have a top 10 player in the league and he's 20 years old, sod off if you don't like it Edited April 19, 2017 by WildCard

[nfreeman]

With due respect, there is no way this is true.

 

Bob McKenzie, multiple times, has said that in the eyes of league scouts, Eichel was the consensus #2, and Matthews #3, had Matthews been eligible for the 2015 draft. He reiterated that on TSN again, earlier this season.

 

Now, I'm sure Matthews has changed at least some minds, but plenty are still going to be on the Eichel bandwagon considering he had a better season than Matthews this year, and that'll do nothing to take away from their initial viewpoint.

 

 

 

 

1.  No one outside of WNY thinks Eichel had a better year than Matthews this year.  Matthews' raw numbers were much better, as were his fancystats.

 

2.  Matthews was the best player on a playoff team that looks like it might win a round.  Eichel put up numbers and showed zero leadership on the 5th-worst team in the NHL -- a team that went backwards this year.

 

3.  Last summer at the World Cup, Matthews was well ahead of Eichel in the rotation, there was talk about the coaches not being too impressed with Eichel and Eichel rode the bench for long stretches.

[qwksndmonster]

Matthews is a better finisher, is better up close, and is better defensively. Eichel drives possession better. Eichel gains the zone better. Eichel is the better playmaker. At this point, I take Eichel because his effect on the transition game is enough to single-handedly change the offensive profile of a team. But Matthews is still in his rookie season and could absolutely surpass Eichel.

 

I'm just glad that they're both going to be on team USA for whenever the Olympics happen again.

[WildCard]

1. No one outside of WNY thinks Eichel had a better year than Matthews this year. Matthews' raw numbers were much better, as were his fancystats.

 

2. Matthews was the best player on a playoff team that looks like it might win a round. Eichel put up numbers and showed zero leadership on the 5th-worst team in the NHL -- a team that went backwards this year.

 

3. Last summer at the World Cup, Matthews was well ahead of Eichel in the rotation, there was talk about the coaches not being too impressed with Eichel and Eichel rode the bench for long stretches.

1) Well you're wrong, by a ton. Those stats have been posted again and again and again and again and again

 

 

 

And again and again and again and again

 

 

 

And again and again and again and again...

 

 

Still, Matthews is better than Eichel, right?

Edited April 19, 2017 by WildCard

[qwksndmonster]

 

And Matthews's fancy stats are better? I saw a psychedelic sphincter the other week that suggested otherwise.

[WildCard]

And Matthews's fancy stats are better? I saw a psychedelic sphincter the other week that suggested otherwise.

And again and again and again and again and again...

[Randall Flagg]

1.  No one outside of WNY thinks Eichel had a better year than Matthews this year.  Matthews' raw numbers were much better, as were his fancystats.

 

2.  Matthews was the best player on a playoff team that looks like it might win a round.  Eichel put up numbers and showed zero leadership on the 5th-worst team in the NHL -- a team that went backwards this year.

 

3.  Last summer at the World Cup, Matthews was well ahead of Eichel in the rotation, there was talk about the coaches not being too impressed with Eichel and Eichel rode the bench for long stretches.

Which raw numbers? Total points, not adjusted for the fact that he played 21 more games? What is this, NBCSN? 

 

His shot and scoring chance generation, both by themselves and relative to the team, were worse than Jack's, who was only behind McDavid and Crosby in the second one (he led the NHL in shots per game). This matches the eye test - Matthews doesn't do much, he lurks in the shadows and then pounces on loose pucks in the crease. It's a nice skill to have, ask Matt Moulson. Relative to their team, they both posted positive possession stats in the neighborhood of +2%. Matthews' raw number was better, as was every other meaningful Toronto forward, but I don't think Leo Komarov had a better season than Jack Eichel. He did play for a better coach.

 

 

I'll let people guess which color is Auston, which is Jack, and which one most matches Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, the premier offensive centers of the NHL today, almost exactly. Jack totally drives play statistically and by the eye test. 

 

Auston is a tremendous player. He's better defensively than Jack and is a better finisher in the dirty areas, where Jack doesn't often go. He's better at chasing down loose pucks and getting possession of them. Jack's better at shielding the puck on the wall, at shrugging guys off. He's a stronger, faster skater. He has a better shot. He has better vision. Again, he posted more assists in 21 games fewer on a team that scored over 50 fewer goals, while being used in notably worse situations than Auston: 

 

Eichel's points per game rate was notably better and he scored more points than any player with as many different line combinations as he had in the post-Gretzky era, as mentioned in another thread. Again, while missing 21 games. 

 

Yes, Auston is a rookie, and a better rookie than Eichel was. No, Auston's sheltered season on literally the healthiest team to play in the NHL in the last 40 years, with 2 other 60+ point rookies and the best coach in the world, on a top 5 offense team while still producing less than Jack on his bad ankle with Bylsma, was not better than Jack's.

[WildCard]

And again and again and again

[apuszczalowski]

The Leafs didn't tank.   They got lucky and won the lottery, and won the Babcock sweepstakes.... because that's where Babcock wanted to go all along, it wasn't about money or roster.    

 

The Leafs lowest point total the past 5 years was 68 points.   Meanwhile BUF put up back to back seasons of 52 and 54 points, which, naturally, will take longer to recover from.

 

Just because the Leafs got lucky and won the lottery without tanking, doesn't mean BUF's tank strategy was a failure.   

Exactly, they never went into a season with the intention of coming out with the #1 overall pick. Their big moves were dumping kessel who was in over his head trying to carry a team and needed to be moved for assetts before the season, then at the deadline managed to find a team desperate enough to take Phaneufs contract. They still went into that season with the intention of trying to make the playoffs, and then when they were out around the deadline they sold veteran assetts to help rebuild.

 

The problem is that people throw around the word 'tank' whenever a team is bad and rebuilding. Very few teams actually tank, that involves intentionally being bad enough to go into the season with the goal of being the worst team in the league to get the #1 overall pick. Very few teams have ever actually done that, most have just sold assetts and rebuilt while still trying to actually win games

[Randall Flagg]

Eff the tank! Eff the tank! Eff the tank!

[Thorny]

Flagg, you are too good. I was going to respond to the statistical side of the argument, but you have it more than covered. I will say, though, that I didn't understand the "Matthews much better raw numbers than Eichel" on it's face. Is total assists a raw number? Never mind assists per game. What about points per game? That's plenty raw. Who's that Sabres reporter again that acts like assists don't matter?

 

For the record, nfreeman, I MYSELF live outside of western New York, up north, so that particular assertion doesn't hold water ;)

[Randall Flagg]

You know, for as long as I live I'll never forget that NBCSN graphic where they listed the young American players and their point totals. Only their point totals. 

Matthews - 50 or something

Gaudreau - 50 or something

Tkachuk - 30something
Trochek?
someone else

Larkin - 2o something

Eichel - 19 or something

 

The graphic showed nothing else. No "games played" or "points per game". Just a list of young american studs, Matthews at the top, and Eichel laughably far behind everyone else. While Jack had the best points per game of anyone on the list at the time. Life as a Sabres fan, eh?

[Thorny]

You know, for as long as I live I'll never forget that NBCSN graphic where they listed the young American players and their point totals. Only their point totals. 

Matthews - 50 or something

Gaudreau - 50 or something

Tkachuk - 30something

Trochek?

someone else

Larkin - 2o something

Eichel - 19 or something

 

The graphic showed nothing else. No "games played" or "points per game". Just a list of young american studs, Matthews at the top, and Eichel laughably far behind everyone else. While Jack had the best points per game of anyone on the list at the time. Life as a Sabres fan, eh?

It's seemingly always like this. It's just as bad on the Canadian networks here, if not worse.

[apuszczalowski]

/thread

Teams get good bt getting elite talent. Some teams get lucky and find that in the late rounds. But the best chance at assuring you get elite talent is to draft the highest, and the best chance at that is to tank. None of that is remotely debatable

That's the only reason this thread exists, and it has nothing to do with Eichel, at all. We have a top 10 player in the league and he's 20 years old, sod off if you don't like it

The best chance at getting elite talent is by having quality, talented, knowledgeable hockey men and front office in place that don't need to play a lottery and get lucky in order to find good players. It is why it took Edmonton so long to get good while spend almost a decade drafting near the top of the draft every year. Its why Toronto is now in the playoffs so quickly after rebuilding (they were last in the playoffs 4 years ago, around the time Buffalo decided it had to tank). Detroit just snapped a 20+ year streak of being in the playoffs where they were one of the better teams in the league over that span and never drafted in the top 10. 

 

And the Sabres do not have a top 10 player in the league right now, maybe top 10 in his age group, but no one outside of Buffalo is putting Eichel in any top 10 category league wide. I don't even know if theres many that would say he is top 10 at his position......

[WildCard]

The Oilers failed because they couldn't​ get average talent, not top talent. They got a ton of top talent, they failed by drafting the same type of talent, and not putting them in positions to succeed; no vets, no depth, etc. Know where Edmonton is without McDavid? Not in the playoffs, again

 

And, well, they're wrong.

Edited April 19, 2017 by WildCard

[Brawndo]

The best chance at getting elite talent is by having quality, talented, knowledgeable hockey men and front office in place that don't need to play a lottery and get lucky in order to find good players. It is why it took Edmonton so long to get good while spend almost a decade drafting near the top of the draft every year. Its why Toronto is now in the playoffs so quickly after rebuilding (they were last in the playoffs 4 years ago, around the time Buffalo decided it had to tank). Detroit just snapped a 20+ year streak of being in the playoffs where they were one of the better teams in the league over that span and never drafted in the top 10. 

 

And the Sabres do not have a top 10 player in the league right now, maybe top 10 in his age group, but no one outside of Buffalo is putting Eichel in any top 10 category league wide. I don't even know if theres many that would say he is top 10 at his position......

There is a large difference between elite players and good ones. Elite are available at the top of the draft.

 

Teams with Elite Talent generally win the cup. The GMs of these teams find ways to draft good players to surround their elite players with.

 

Teams such as Minnesota usually find good players, but cannot advance to the ultimate goal.

 

Detroit started their 25 year run by drafting in the Top Five a few years and got lucky Datsyuk in 98. And Zetterburg in 99. Now a days those players would be top five picks.

[Randall Flagg]

The Oilers failed because they couldn't​ get average talent, not top talent. They got a ton of top talent, they failed by drafting the same type of talent, and not putting them in positions to succeed; no vets, no depth, etc. Know where Edmonton is without McDavid? Not in the playoffs, again

 

And, well, they're wrong.

It looks more and more like we can't take that step they couldn't either. Our vets are garbage. Our defense is garbage. They've FINALLY fixed theirs after years - Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera, and Russell (yes, Kris actually looks GOOD this year somehow) is a better top 4 than any we've had since Miller's Vezina season. They can shelter Nurse with Benning who has looked great and came out of nowhere. 

 

For years the Oilers had crappy vets that were supposed to lead but couldn't play, and there were rifts and young players doing their own things because of it (Ference was their captain...) This is exactly where we are. It took them years to fix what we're just starting to realize we have. 

[nfreeman]

Raw numbers:  again, FORTY GOALS.  SECOND IN THE NHL.  AS A ROOKIE.

 

Fancystats:  Matthews had better Corsi and Fenwick than Eichel this year.  So I don't see where Eichel drives possession better.

 

To be clear:  Eichel had moments this year that made me think he's gonna be a top-5 player in the NHL pretty GD soon.  And he could certainly end up showing that he's better than Matthews.  But Matthews had more of those moments this year, is much more highly regarded around the NHL -- including by the only coach that had both of them on his team and led his team into the playoffs.

[Randall Flagg]

Raw numbers:  again, FORTY GOALS.  SECOND IN THE NHL.  AS A ROOKIE.

 

Fancystats:  Matthews had better Corsi and Fenwick than Eichel this year.  So I don't see where Eichel drives possession better.

 

To be clear:  Eichel had moments this year that made me think he's gonna be a top-5 player in the NHL pretty GD soon.  And he could certainly end up showing that he's better than Matthews.  But Matthews had more of those moments this year, is much more highly regarded around the NHL -- including by the only coach that had both of them on his team and led his team into the playoffs.

You are admitting to comparing two players on raw numbers when one played 21 more games than the other? ...alright

 

He played in a much better system - relative to their teams, they are incredibly similar. The play driving comes in the form of successful zone entries and zone exits - Eichel and McDavid and Karlsson rule the league here, and Matthews isn't even a blip in the radar. Scoring chance and shot generation. Eichel crushes. The amount of points they score in an equivalent amount of games. Eichel crushes. 

 

Yeah, Eichel sucked in that tournament. That is not relevant to the NHL seasons that each proceeded to have.

[LGR4GM]

Considering we missed playoffs, I would say Eichel and all the Sabres were not good enough. Really that's all that matters.

[Marvelo]

I think Eichel is an excellent hockey player whose career will resemble Ryan Getzlaf. He's not a Gretzky piling up points...the league wouldn't allow Buffalo to have that. He's the perfect image of the red-headed stepchild that the Sabres represent in the league. Now if Reinhart resembles Corey Perry, (that remains to be seen) then we may be a contender if the NHL has a down year like they did in 2007 if TM loads the lineup with big and heavy types as well as a Niedermayer or two. Then the Sabres could have a Duck-like success story. But it's not a given. 

[Randall Flagg]

How many leagues below the NHL was Getzlaf in his second post draft season? While Jack was top 11 in scoring pace for players with half a season?