If you were the Islanders

[Peter]

To re-phrase the question, if I were Garth Snow, I would use this year's pick and add what I could to make sure that next year's pick is not subject to the lottery.

 

If I were the owner of the Islanders, right now, I would lean toward deferring if there was any chance of getting one of the top picks.

[nfreeman]

But why were they? I look at them a lot like I look at Toronto. The Isles have 1 playoff appearance in the last 7 years and it just happened to come in a 48 game season. This is a team with a consistent history of bad hockey and they still have the same exact people running the show (at least Toronto has mixed it up a bit). Why are we expecting anything different from them?

 

And their best player will be coming back from a major injury, and they just got punched in the stomach by the Moulson/Vanek debacle, and they lost their best defenseman at the deadline, and they'll be playing out the string in LI next year...

 

There's a real possibility the bottom falls out next season.

[LastPommerFan]

And their best player will be coming back from a major injury, and they just got punched in the stomach by the Moulson/Vanek debacle, and they lost their best defenseman at the deadline, and they'll be playing out the string in LI next year...

 

There's a real possibility the bottom falls out next season.

 

"real possibility" becomes "virtual lock" if they don't fire Garth Snow.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

But why were they? I look at them a lot like I look at Toronto. The Isles have 1 playoff appearance in the last 7 years and it just happened to come in a 48 game season. This is a team with a consistent history of bad hockey and they still have the same exact people running the show (at least Toronto has mixed it up a bit). Why are we expecting anything different from them?

 

Again...the average team has a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

 

I have conservatively discounted the Isles chances to 20%.

 

At 20%, their chance of getting the #1 pick is 5%.

 

I'd rather have 100% chance at Bennett and Dal Colle today, than a 5% chance at McDavid tomorrow.

 

Like I said...go look at the draft projections a year ago. Also, go look at the prediction thread and see where the majority expected the Sabres to finish this year and what they actually did.

 

I can find plenty of more enticing 20-1 shots than making the fans suffer through multiple seasons and paying an average of $5,000 for a pair of season tickets.

 

I'm starting to think that analytics isn't the problem.....the city is just bad at basic math.....

[nfreeman]

Again...the average team has a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

 

I have conservatively discounted the Isles chances to 20%.

 

At 20%, their chance of getting the #1 pick is 5%.

 

I'd rather have 100% chance at Bennett and Dal Colle today, than a 5% chance at McDavid tomorrow.

 

Like I said...go look at the draft projections a year ago. Also, go look at the prediction thread and see where the majority expected the Sabres to finish this year and what they actually did.

 

I can find plenty of more enticing 20-1 shots than making the fans suffer through multiple seasons and paying an average of $5,000 for a pair of season tickets.

 

I'm starting to think that analytics isn't the problem.....the city is just bad at basic math.....

 

It really comes down to how good the top 5-8 players in the 2015 draft are relative to the #5 guy this year though, right?

 

Here are the recent #5 overall picks:

 

2010 -- Nino Niederreiter

2009 -- Brayden Schenn

2008 -- Luke Schenn

2007 -- Karl Alzner

2006 -- Phil Kessel

2005 -- Carey Price

2004 -- Blake Wheeler

2003 -- Thomas Vanek

2002 -- Ryan Whitney

2001 -- Stanislav Chistov

2000 -- Raffi Torres

 

In that group, you have 2 elite players (Kessel and Price), one very good player (Vanek), a couple of good players and a few washouts.

 

If next year's draft is as deep and rich as they say, and if you are pretty confident that the Islanders will pick in the top 8, and you think there is a 50% chance that they pick in the top 4 -- the history of players getting picked at #5 just isn't strong enough to make you regret being deferred.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

It really comes down to how good the top 5-8 players in the 2015 draft are relative to the #5 guy this year though, right?

 

Here are the recent #5 overall picks:

 

2010 -- Nino Niederreiter

2009 -- Brayden Schenn

2008 -- Luke Schenn

2007 -- Karl Alzner

2006 -- Phil Kessel

2005 -- Carey Price

2004 -- Blake Wheeler

2003 -- Thomas Vanek

2002 -- Ryan Whitney

2001 -- Stanislav Chistov

2000 -- Raffi Torres

 

In that group, you have 2 elite players (Kessel and Price), one very good player (Vanek), a couple of good players and a few washouts.

 

If next year's draft is as deep and rich as they say, and if you are pretty confident that the Islanders will pick in the top 8, and you think there is a 50% chance that they pick in the top 4 -- the history of players getting picked at #5 just isn't strong enough to make you regret being deferred.

 

When you can get Reinhart, the Bratwurst Strangler or whatever his name is, or Dal Colle who looks like he could play on the team today....you take it. Not only is it a crapshoot, but waiting another year on a crapshoot while you have a bona fide able bodied player in the system today. I would give them Foligno and Minny's 2nd for them not to defer, or St. louis' 1st if we have it. All this BS talk about tanking for elite players at the top of the draft...you actually have leverage to get 2 of them....and people want to play Quick Draw instead.

 

Nothing stopping the Isles from playing in free agency as well. They get to the playoffs, #16-22......win a round...#23-30. There is a 4x better chance this happens than them picking #1.

[nfreeman]

When you can get Reinhart, the Bratwurst Strangler or whatever his name is, or Dal Colle who looks like he could play on the team today....you take it. Not only is it a crapshoot, but waiting another year on a crapshoot while you have a bona fide able bodied player in the system today. I would give them Foligno and Minny's 2nd for them not to defer, or St. louis' 1st if we have it. All this BS talk about tanking for elite players at the top of the draft...you actually have leverage to get 2 of them....and people want to play Quick Draw instead.

 

Nothing stopping the Isles from playing in free agency as well. They get to the playoffs, #16-22......win a round...#23-30. There is a 4x better chance this happens than them picking #1.

 

But again, you're assuming that the #5 player in 2014 is roughly comparable to the #5-#8 player in 2015. That may be true, but it may be way off the mark.

 

I would submit that nobody here has any idea how good these guys are, but TM has a pretty good idea. So while it may be a complete crapshoot for us in evaluating these guys, it isn't for him.

[Hoss]

The argument about 5 in 2015 vs 8 of so in 2015 is very valid.

 

If I were to rank prospects from the next two drafts, and I'm not nearly an expert so these are very loose and practically invalid, then it would go as follows:

 

1. Connor McDavid, C (2015)

2. Jack Eichel, C (2015)

3. Noah Hanifin, D (2015)

4. Matthew Barzal, C (2015)

5. Pavel Zacha, W (2015)

6. Sam Reinhart, C (2014)

7. Aaron Ekblad, D (2014)

8. Colin White, C (2015)

9. Oliver Kylington, D (2015)

10. Travis Konecny, C (2015)

11. Dylan Strome, C (2015)

12. Sam Bennett, C (2014)

13. Michael Dal Colle, W (2014)

14. Paul Bittner, W (2015)

15. Leon Draisaitl, C (2014)

 

 

If you're to believe me, somebody who hasn't seen much of the 2015 guys I just listed outside of the top four of them and is basing most of the rest of what I've read, then the fifth guy this year would be 11th next year.

[oldSabsfan]

im glad u guys are not the buff gm ha... i wish connor all the luck i can see bust all over it tho.

Edited April 16, 2014 by oldSabsfan

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

The argument about 5 in 2015 vs 8 of so in 2015 is very valid.

 

If I were to rank prospects from the next two drafts, and I'm not nearly an expert so these are very loose and practically invalid, then it would go as follows:

 

1. Connor McDavid, C (2015)

2. Jack Eichel, C (2015)

3. Noah Hanifin, D (2015)

4. Matthew Barzal, C (2015)

5. Pavel Zacha, W (2015)

6. Sam Reinhart, C (2014)

7. Aaron Ekblad, D (2014)

8. Colin White, C (2015)

9. Oliver Kylington, D (2015)

10. Travis Konecny, C (2015)

11. Dylan Strome, C (2015)

12. Sam Bennett, C (2014)

13. Michael Dal Colle, W (2014)

14. Paul Bittner, W (2015)

15. Leon Draisaitl, C (2014)

 

 

If you're to believe me, somebody who hasn't seen much of the 2015 guys I just listed outside of the top four of them and is basing most of the rest of what I've read, then the fifth guy this year would be 11th next year.

 

Well considering the Sabres finished one of the worst seasons in modern NHL history and are going to take the #12 guy on that list as their reward most likely....it just shows you how idiotic the idea of tanking is.

 

Like PA and his movie Nebraska.....we just drove 2,000 miles for a $5 hat......

[Hoss]

im glad u guys are not the buff gm ha... i wish connor all the luck i can see bust all over it tho.

 

Generational talents rarely ever bust. I won't say never, but I can't think of one. I'm talking generational, can't-miss number one picks.

[WildCard]

Generational talents rarely ever bust. I won't say never, but I can't think of one. I'm talking generational, can't-miss number one picks.

Not in hockey at least. (Happens a ton in the NFL----->Ryan Leaf)

 

But I agree with you, and I think it's because Hockey scouts have so much more time to evaluate their players when they spend so long in Juniors compared to the 2 years or so an NFL QB can spend in college.

[Hoss]

 

Not in hockey at least. (Happens a ton in the NFL----->Ryan Leaf)

 

But I agree with you, and I think it's because Hockey scouts have so much more time to evaluate their players when they spend so long in Juniors compared to the 2 years or so an NFL QB can spend in college.

 

That and I think, despite being the hardest overall sport in my opinion, there's less variables that will change the way you play at the next level for some types of talents. If you can play, you can play.

[oldSabsfan]

call me crazy but if buff ever did win the lotto in 2015 i would trade out an get more studs 1 player dont make a team

[Hoss]

call me crazy but if buff ever did win the lotto in 2015 i would trade out an get more studs 1 player dont make a team

 

If they got the first overall pick next year and then traded it I would stop watching. I'd become a Bruins fan. I ###### hate the Bruins.

 

Also, I'm so bored of "one player doesn't make a team." Sometimes they do. Truly great players are magnets. They attract other talents. And they make lesser talents better.

But we wouldn't have to worry about that so much. We have plenty of young stud prospects and will have even more by then.

Edited April 16, 2014 by Tankalicious

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Troller, troller ... I'd rather have a boller.

Edited April 16, 2014 by Sabres Fan In NS

[Hoss]

Troller, troller ... I'd rather have a boller.

 

One troller don't ruin a thread. Jk it do.

[Weave]

If they got the first overall pick next year and then traded it I would stop watching. I'd become a Bruins fan. I ###### hate the Bruins.

 

Also, I'm so bored of "one player doesn't make a team." Sometimes they do. Truly great players are magnets. They attract other talents. And they make lesser talents better.

But we wouldn't have to worry about that so much. We have plenty of young stud prospects and will have even more by then.

 

If the 1st overall pick comes to us next year you should at least be open to the idea. I know it rarely happens but one only has to look at what the Lindos trade did for Quebec/Colorado's roster.

[Hoss]

 

 

If the 1st overall pick comes to us next year you should at least be open to the idea. I know it rarely happens but one only has to look at what the Lindos trade did for Quebec/Colorado's roster.

 

Nope. I wouldn't even be kind of open to the idea. Unless a team offers their superstar NHLer and then some. Seriously. This team and city needs a generational kind of player.

[Johnny DangerFace]

im glad u guys are not the buff gm ha... i wish connor all the luck i can see bust all over it tho.

 

Eichel > mcdavid! Am I right?

[bob_sauve28]

Not in hockey at least. (Happens a ton in the NFL----->Ryan Leaf)

 

Ha! Exactly what I was thinking

[Hoss]

Wasn't talking about any league other than the NHL, for the record. So Leaf is irrelevant.

[LastPommerFan]

Wasn't talking about any league other than the NHL, for the record. So Leaf is irrelevant.

 

How can you say the leafs are irrelevant?!? They almost singlehandedly keep the league afloat.

 

 

 

 

;-)

[3putt]

Nope. I wouldn't even be kind of open to the idea. Unless a team offers their superstar NHLer and then some. Seriously. This team and city needs a generational kind of player.

Quebec/Avs got Forsberg....he was pretty good.

[Hoss]

Quebec/Avs got Forsberg....he was pretty good.

 

Well if somebody offers us up a Forsberg type and then a bit more we'll talk about it. But I don't see that happening. It'd have to be one of the best players in the league to even start the conversation.