Advanced Stats and Why W-L Records Are Unfair to Goalies

[K-9]

Thought this was worth sharing as it really helps put a goalie's W-L record in perspective.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capitals-insider/wp/2013/11/09/goalies-should-not-be-judged-by-wins-and-losses/

 

GO SABRES!!!

[PASabreFan]

Another brilliant revelation from the analytics crowd.

[K-9]

Another brilliant revelation from the analytics crowd.

 

Just to be clear, I'm about as far removed from the analytics crowd as a person can get. I tend to think things just aren't that complicated.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[wonderbread]

The same thing could be said about pitchers in baseball.

[PASabreFan]

Just to be clear, I'm about as far removed from the analytics crowd as a person can get. I tend to think things just aren't that complicated.

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

Every generation thinks it invented sex.

[Ross Rhea]

Same thing can be said when Enroth lost, what 10-12 in a row. Remember the arguing going on in here about that.

 

Funny how it gets noticed when it happens to Miller, yet in Enroths case it wasn't a good excuse as he "still lost" 10-12 in a row because he was "no good" .

[deluca67]

Same thing can be said when Enroth lost, what 10-12 in a row. Remember the arguing going on in here about that.

 

Funny how it gets noticed when it happens to Miller, yet in Enroths case it wasn't a good excuse as he "still lost" 10-12 in a row because he was "no good" .

Shhhh! Anything theory that can enhance Miller's trade value is a good thing.

[K-9]

Every generation thinks it invented sex.

 

LOL!

 

Seriously funny stuff right there.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[PASabreFan]

At some point when your goalie gives up four goals in the first period, some or most of it has to be on him. It seems like Miller remains the Teflon Goalie here. I always found it puzzling that some fans could think so highly of the guy, yet expect so little.

[K-9]

Same thing can be said when Enroth lost, what 10-12 in a row. Remember the arguing going on in here about that.

 

Funny how it gets noticed when it happens to Miller, yet in Enroths case it wasn't a good excuse as he "still lost" 10-12 in a row because he was "no good" .

 

I may be wrong, but as I recall, Enroth's save percentage was pretty bad during his losing streak and he looked very sloppy for most of those games. I realize he didn't get much help from his offense, either, but I'd be willing to bet his save percentage to keep the Sabres even in games wouldn't have been as high as Miller's 95.5%. If anyone is so inclined, it would be interesting to see just what the numbers were during that bad stretch.

 

Oh, and this wasn't a defense of Ryan Miller, either. Just thought it interesting to see just how high his save percentage needs to be just to keep us even in games. I was surprised as I'd never seen it expressed that way before.

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

At some point when your goalie gives up four goals in the first period, some or most of it has to be on him. It seems like Miller remains the Teflon Goalie here. I always found it puzzling that some fans could think so highly of the guy, yet expect so little.

 

And with this, I can see the spirit of thread was completely missed.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The problem for years has been and continues to be the players in front of Miller.

 

If Miller was on some other team, not a crappy team like the Sabres, but a good team, I really think it is very likely he would have his cup by now. IMO, he is good enough to carry a good team to glory.

 

ROSTER!!

 

Oh, yeah ...

 

GO SABRES!!

[Ross Rhea]

I may be wrong, but as I recall, Enroth's save percentage was pretty bad during his losing streak and he looked very sloppy for most of those games. I realize he didn't get much help from his offense, either, but I'd be willing to bet his save percentage to keep the Sabres even in games wouldn't have been as high as Miller's 95.5%. If anyone is so inclined, it would be interesting to see just what the numbers were during that bad stretch.

 

Just doing some quick checking on Enroth during that streak he played in 12 games had 368 shots faced and 334 saves. That's 34 goals given up in 12 games for .908 sv % but only 24 were even strength goals, 10 were scored on him on the PP and even strength sv % I can't figure out. Really not bad at all given the circumstances of injuries and all. The team only scored 19 goals in those 12 games. Kinda like what is going on now, the only way to win seems if the goalie pitches a shutout. Very similar situations.

[JJFIVEOH]

Just to be clear, I'm about as far removed from the analytics crowd as a person can get. I tend to think things just aren't that complicated.

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

Me too. Seems to me all it is is somebody trying to find some breakthrough formula that will allow a GM to turn into a complete mastermind.

 

 

You are wrong. I posted those stats a couple of times, and he was over .900 which was the basis for my argument that Enroth wasn't at fault for

Same thing can be said when Enroth lost, what 10-12 in a row. Remember the arguing going on in here about that.

 

Funny how it gets noticed when it happens to Miller, yet in Enroths case it wasn't a good excuse as he "still lost" 10-12 in a row because he was "no good" .

 

The double standard didn't exist nearly as much as you'd like to think. I don't see anybody bringing it up now, and what is Miller's record?

 

I may be wrong, but as I recall, Enroth's save percentage was pretty bad during his losing streak and he looked very sloppy for most of those games. I realize he didn't get much help from his offense, either, but I'd be willing to bet his save percentage to keep the Sabres even in games wouldn't have been as high as Miller's 95.5%. If anyone is so inclined, it would be interesting to see just what the numbers were during that bad stretch.

 

Oh, and this wasn't a defense of Ryan Miller, either. Just thought it interesting to see just how high his save percentage needs to be just to keep us even in games. I was surprised as I'd never seen it expressed that way before.

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

 

 

And with this, I can see the spirit of thread was completely missed.

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

Enroth finished off the 2011-12 season with a 0-7-3 record in his last 10 starts. The team scored a TOTAL of 16 goals during that stretch. He had a .910 save percentage during that stretch. This board and WGR will still use a 10 game losing streak against him. You be the judge.

[LTS]

The good news is that we are going to find out about Miller next year. So we'll see how it goes!

 

Advances stats aren't mysticism. All the things that occur on the ice are intertwined. However, advanced stats can't predict psychology of a game and players. So, yes, you can try and get a better understanding of things but to lay it all on the line for what the stats say isn't necessarily the best idea.

[Taro T]

Me too. Seems to me all it is is somebody trying to find some breakthrough formula that will allow a GM to turn into a complete mastermind.

 

 

You are wrong. I posted those stats a couple of times, and he was over .900 which was the basis for my argument that Enroth wasn't at fault for

 

 

The double standard didn't exist nearly as much as you'd like to think. I don't see anybody bringing it up now, and what is Miller's record?

 

 

 

Enroth finished off the 2011-12 season with a 0-7-3 record in his last 10 starts. The team scored a TOTAL of 16 goals during that stretch. He had a .910 save percentage during that stretch. This board and WGR will still use a 10 game losing streak against him. You be the judge.

I won't speak for anyone else, but my issue with Enroth is purely his size. There is a reason most goalies are now butterfly/hybrid butterfly goalies. The shots are too hard to react to. Enroth leaves a huge gap near the crossbar in the butterfly. He has killer reactions, which is why he's in the NHL, but they aren't Hasek-like which he'd need to be better than Miller.

 

He also gives up huge rebounds. Until he gets that under control, he's not a #1.

[JJFIVEOH]

I won't speak for anyone else, but my issue with Enroth is purely his size. There is a reason most goalies are now butterfly/hybrid butterfly goalies. The shots are too hard to react to. Enroth leaves a huge gap near the crossbar in the butterfly. He has killer reactions, which is why he's in the NHL, but they aren't Hasek-like which he'd need to be better than Miller.

 

He also gives up huge rebounds. Until he gets that under control, he's not a #1.

 

All valid points. But Enroth has had better save percentages than Miller over the last two years, and is currently better than him now. Been hearing the argument that the sample size isn't large enough, but it keeps getting bigger.

 

All goaltenders have strengths and weaknesses. Enroth's rebounds aren't what they used to be, and with the new shape of the net I have noticed a big increase in wrap arounds. Anything that happens behind the net, Enroth is very quick to react. He definitely hold that advantage over Miller. And speaking of crossbars and height, I've seen more goals go over Miller's shoulder on the high glove side than I'd like to admit.

 

On a side note (this isn't directed at you, Taro, I just can't make separate posts) I find it funny that Miller is currently sitting at .912 with a 2-11-0 record and he's been appaluded all season so far. And in many cases for good reason. Two years ago when the team was completely depleted because of injuries, Enroth goes 0-7-3 but manages a comparable .910 and the BFLO media tears him up, reaching whipping boy status similar to the likes of Hecht and Stafford. Yeah, double standards. There I said it. :P

[qwksndmonster]

I can't get myself worked up about Sabres goalies in the slightest. Enroth'll probably be retired by the time the Sabres are good enough for the quality of goal tending to matter. That's my excuse for not trying to crucify people that are wrong in this thread (and boy are they wrong).

[JJFIVEOH]

I can't get myself worked up about Sabres goalies in the slightest. Enroth'll probably be retired by the time the Sabres are good enough for the quality of goal tending to matter. That's my excuse for not trying to crucify people that are wrong in this thread (and boy are they wrong).

 

It's never stopped you before. :angel:

[qwksndmonster]

It's never stopped you before. :angel:

Stop it I'm trying to be a good boy (who baits people in between parentheses)!

[Weave]

All valid points. But Enroth has had better save percentages than Miller over the last two years, and is currently better than him now. Been hearing the argument that the sample size isn't large enough, but it keeps getting bigger.

 

All goaltenders have strengths and weaknesses. Enroth's rebounds aren't what they used to be, and with the new shape of the net I have noticed a big increase in wrap arounds. Anything that happens behind the net, Enroth is very quick to react. He definitely hold that advantage over Miller. And speaking of crossbars and height, I've seen more goals go over Miller's shoulder on the high glove side than I'd like to admit.

 

On a side note (this isn't directed at you, Taro, I just can't make separate posts) I find it funny that Miller is currently sitting at .912 with a 2-11-0 record and he's been appaluded all season so far. And in many cases for good reason. Two years ago when the team was completely depleted because of injuries, Enroth goes 0-7-3 but manages a comparable .910 and the BFLO media tears him up, reaching whipping boy status similar to the likes of Hecht and Stafford. Yeah, double standards. There I said it. :P

 

The bolded part is a gross exaggeration. Yes there were a few thaat thought little of Enroth, but to make it out like he had the ire of the folks here along the likes of two of the biggest whipping boys in the last decade is worthy of ridicule. If anything, Miller was a bigger whipping boy during the last few seasons.

 

For the great majority the issue with Enroth was simply, he hasn't had enough games to make a solid judgement, not that he wasn't going to amount to anything. But that wouldn't fit your narrative.

 

And for the record, I think we've now reached the point where it is probably safe to assume that the difference between Miller and Enroth isn't enough to meaningfully impact this teams' success (or failure). And it is possible that Enroth still has some development left in him. Hint- that is a good thing.

[Ross Rhea]

I can't get myself worked up about Sabres goalies in the slightest. Enroth'll probably be retired by the time the Sabres are good enough for the quality of goal tending to matter. That's my excuse for not trying to crucify people that are wrong in this thread (and boy are they wrong).

 

This I can fully agree with. To add to it, the sabres won't be good enough until DR & RR show is gone.

 

Enroth'll? Can you do that? Is that even a word? I've never seen that before. :nana:

[qwksndmonster]

This I can fully agree with. To add to it, the sabres won't be good enough until DR & RR show is gone.

 

Enroth'll? Can you do that? Is that even a word? I've never seen that before. :nana:

Enroth turns into Enroth'll when he drinks 100 coffees.

[PASabreFan]

Enroth turns into Enroth'll when he drinks 100 coffees.

 

Rhymes with Brothel? Good band.

[JJFIVEOH]

The bolded part is a gross exaggeration. Yes there were a few thaat thought little of Enroth, but to make it out like he had the ire of the folks here along the likes of two of the biggest whipping boys in the last decade is worthy of ridicule. If anything, Miller was a bigger whipping boy during the last few seasons.

 

For the great majority the issue with Enroth was simply, he hasn't had enough games to make a solid judgement, not that he wasn't going to amount to anything. But that wouldn't fit your narrative.

 

And for the record, I think we've now reached the point where it is probably safe to assume that the difference between Miller and Enroth isn't enough to meaningfully impact this teams' success (or failure). And it is possible that Enroth still has some development left in him. Hint- that is a good thing.

 

That's all well and good, but I didn't mention anything about the people on this board.

[Taro T]

The bolded part is a gross exaggeration. Yes there were a few thaat thought little of Enroth, but to make it out like he had the ire of the folks here along the likes of two of the biggest whipping boys in the last decade is worthy of ridicule. If anything, Miller was a bigger whipping boy during the last few seasons.

 

For the great majority the issue with Enroth was simply, he hasn't had enough games to make a solid judgement, not that he wasn't going to amount to anything. But that wouldn't fit your narrative.

 

And for the record, I think we've now reached the point where it is probably safe to assume that the difference between Miller and Enroth isn't enough to meaningfully impact this teams' success (or failure). And it is possible that Enroth still has some development left in him. Hint- that is a good thing.

Tonight's game was a good example of the issues I have w/ Jhonas. I think he's a great backup, but his size works against him to be a 50 game starter. If they do trade Miller, here's to hoping Hackett is ready for the big time.