Q: How often has a 7th/8th seed reached the Cup final?

[PromoTheRobot]

Given that we've already seen that no team seeded lower than 5 has won a cup in 20 years, I care a whole lot where Buffalo finishes. Seeding is a damned good indicator of how good a team really is. I am more than happy to watch them in the playoffs as an 8 seed. But I am much, much happier watching them in the playoffs as a 5+ seed expecting that they have a legit shot at the whole shebang.

 

Cinderella stories are nice but I don't want a fairy tale. A true contender is what I want.

You are one of the biggest posters saying the Sabres are not cup contenders so why does it matter where they get seeded? I thought you wrote this team off in December?

 

PTR

[X. Benedict]

You are one of the biggest posters saying the Sabres are not cup contenders so why does it matter where they get seeded? I thought you wrote this team off in December?

 

PTR

Sometimes words get "defined down" and sometimes words get "defined up"

 

Contender here seems to have been "defined up" to mean a very excellent chance and extremely likely to win it all.

 

Anyway, pick any team out of the 16 and they have better chance of not winning... so I would argue that there are no contenders in the league as it has been defined here.

 

The trick is to keep surviving until people say....gee....look who is left. ;)

[JujuFish]

I cheated and used Wikipedia. No 7 or 8 seed existed before 1993-94 season.

1994: Vancouver, 7th seed (lost to 1NYR, 4-3)

1999: Buffalo, 7th seed (unfinished series vs 1DAL, 3-2)

2003: Anaheim, 7th seed (lost to 2NJD, 4-3)

2006: Edmonton, 8th seed (lost to 2CAR, 4-3)

2010: Philadelphia, 8th seed (lost to 2CHI, 4-2)

 

5 teams. Although the low seed has lost each time, 3 of those times have gone to a game 7.

[Meathead]

I don't like when your vote is revealed to the rest of the board. Almost seems like when a poster chooses that option, they're trying to play a game of "gotcha."

of course its a game of gotcha. wth else is there to do for fun on a message board. its like a game show where you win nothing but bragging or ragging rights

 

my god is your psyche so tender you cant withstand being wrong on a meaningless poll

[Weave]

You are one of the biggest posters saying the Sabres are not cup contenders so why does it matter where they get seeded? I thought you wrote this team off in December?

 

PTR

 

I did. They've managed to claw their way back into the playoff picture. I've acknowledged that too and I commend them for it. But alot of the implied posts here seem to say that because they are now in they have an equal chance of going deep, and history has shown us that it just isn't true. CAN they go deep intot he playoffs? Sure. But the odds are stacked against them. And as usual, someone who brings up that idea is labeled as negative.

 

As a fan, I want them to keep winning of course. But as a realist I am acknowledging that they don't have the same odds of success as the division leaders. Like I said upthread, the leaders may be flawed, but our 8th place position ought to tell us that our team is even more flawed.

[LGR4GM]

Theoretically everyone has the same chance to win the cup when the playoffs start. We probably make it out of round 1 last year if vanek stays healthy. So this year we have to hope that the struggles and adversity have forced a soft team to harden into a fighter. Once and a while this team shows that 05-06 magic that we've missed for years.

Keys to the playoffs for us:

1) Ryan Miller, play like the olympics.

2) Our Young Defense, play smart and stay tough.

3) Centers, can we have strong play from our weakest position.

 

If we can accomplish these 3 things and get into a playoff Rhythm, we could do well. 16 is the magic number and it is not entirely insane to imagine this team going 16-6 in the regular season right now so why not the playoffs. Yes it is a great deal more difficult but like they say for the Lotto, "Hey You Never Know"

[Derrico]

Theoretically everyone has the same chance to win the cup when the playoffs start. We probably make it out of round 1 last year if vanek stays healthy. So this year we have to hope that the struggles and adversity have forced a soft team to harden into a fighter. Once and a while this team shows that 05-06 magic that we've missed for years.

Keys to the playoffs for us:

1) Ryan Miller, play like the olympics.

2) Our Young Defense, play smart and stay tough.

3) Centers, can we have strong play from our weakest position.

 

If we can accomplish these 3 things and get into a playoff Rhythm, we could do well. 16 is the magic number and it is not entirely insane to imagine this team going 16-6 in the regular season right now so why not the playoffs. Yes it is a great deal more difficult but like they say for the Lotto, "Hey You Never Know"

 

I like this point. I really wouldn't be shocked talking about that type of run in the regular season. I understand running that record will be considerably tougher since we will be playing nothing but the top teams in the east come playoff time. By no means do I feel even confident that they are making a long run this post season. But hey if anyone is following March Madness they'll see that upsets do happen. I may of heard wrong but I thought they said this was the first time ever there wasn't a #1 or #2 seed left in the tourney come Final 4. Firsts for everything I guess. Rather have some hope and recongize the quality of hockey this team is playing with than write about how realistically this team has no chance.

[wacollin]

Theoretically everyone has the same chance to win the cup when the playoffs start. We probably make it out of round 1 last year if vanek stays healthy. So this year we have to hope that the struggles and adversity have forced a soft team to harden into a fighter. Once and a while this team shows that 05-06 magic that we've missed for years.

Keys to the playoffs for us:

1) Ryan Miller, play like the olympics.

2) Our Young Defense, play smart and stay tough.

3) Centers, can we have strong play from our weakest position.

 

If we can accomplish these 3 things and get into a playoff Rhythm, we could do well. 16 is the magic number and it is not entirely insane to imagine this team going 16-6 in the regular season right now so why not the playoffs. Yes it is a great deal more difficult but like they say for the Lotto, "Hey You Never Know"

[wacollin]

I think it was PTR or PA that said this and it made me laugh but was also true.

 

 

If the Sabres win out from here they win The Cup! He'll, they can even go 24-3 or worse.

[iamsuperdave]

Ask Edmonton how it worked out for them. It was an admirable run but the exception to the rule.

[PASabreFan]

Sometimes words get "defined down" and sometimes words get "defined up"

 

Contender here seems to have been "defined up" to mean a very excellent chance and extremely likely to win it all.

 

Anyway, pick any team out of the 16 and they have better chance of not winning... so I would argue that there are no contenders in the league as it has been defined here.

 

The trick is to keep surviving until people say....gee....look who is left. ;)

 

I think you're creating a straw man with that definition.

 

Certainly some teams have a better chance than others, based on the makeup of their roster, their coaches and, yes, their regular-season performance. Pittsburgh is a stronger contender than the Sabres even before getting a sand-bagged Crosby back. No?

 

In your vision of the playoffs -- anybody can win it -- shouldn't coaching come to the forefront? Lindy talked about the extreme parity in the league this season, yet his team -- with talent he identified as contender-quality -- is still fighting to sneak into the playoffs. I can only conclude he's an average to less than average coach.

 

A final question. Would you be content if the Sabres were in this same exact position one year from now? Seems like you should be.

[Derrico]

I think you're creating a straw man with that definition.

 

Certainly some teams have a better chance than others, based on the makeup of their roster, their coaches and, yes, their regular-season performance. Pittsburgh is a stronger contender than the Sabres even before getting a sand-bagged Crosby back. No?

 

In your vision of the playoffs -- anybody can win it -- shouldn't coaching come to the forefront? Lindy talked about the extreme parity in the league this season, yet his team -- with talent he identified as contender-quality -- is still fighting to sneak into the playoffs. I can only conclude he's an average to less than average coach.

 

A final question. Would you be content if the Sabres were in this same exact position one year from now? Seems like you should be.

 

Clearly not. I think you have to look at literally half the defense corps changing over and Myers having the dreaded sophmore slump early in the season. I really don't want to sound like I'm completely letting Ruff off the hook here but it sometimes takes time before the defense settles in and is use to playing with their D partners and the system. That set us back early in the year. Also can't really blame Ruff for Miller playing like s&it early on in the year (as not giving him enough rest doesn't apply then). All of that led to the team struggling mightly. Then the best player on your team at the time goes down with a season ending injury. It is remarkable Ruff helped get this team get to where they are. With somewhat less turnover expected for next year I fully expect the Sabres to continue playing similar hockey to what they are now. If you look at the second half of the season and apply it to the full year (next yr) we should be top four in the conference and a more series contender.

[Weave]

Theoretically everyone has the same chance to win the cup when the playoffs start.

 

This only makes sense if you believe that all 16 teams in the playoffs are equal.

 

I'll admit that there seems to be more parity among the top 8 in the Eastern Conference. IMO Vancouver (and to some extent Detroit) are absolute beasts though.

[Derrico]

This only makes sense if you believe that all 16 teams in the playoffs are equal.

 

I'll admit that there seems to be more parity among the top 8 in the Eastern Conference. IMO Vancouver (and to some extent Detroit) are absolute beasts though.

 

Yep, I'll agree with that! If we were in the west I would not have as much belief as I do in pulling atleast a one round upset.

[Mango]

There were actually 19 cup finals since 1991 because of the lost season of 2005. And the answer is: 6 times if you count MIN in 1991.

 

In fact here are the breakdowns:

#1 seeds made it 8 times

#2 11 times

#3 3x

#4 6x

#5 3x

#6 1x

#7 5x (incl MIN 1991)

#8 1x

 

My point being that 7-8 seeds made it to the finals 6 of 19 times, or 32%. Not terrible odds. Now WINNING the cup is another matter. No seed lower than 5 ever won since 1991.

 

#1 6x

#2 7x

#3 1x

#4 3x

#5 2x

#6 0x

#7 0x

#8 0x

 

So if PA and DeLuca need something negative to glom on to, there you go.

 

PTR

 

maybe i am looking at this wrong, but the way i see it is that there are 38 teams over the past 19 stanley cups. 6 of them where 7 or 8 seeds, making the percentage 15.78%. a much lesser (and i think realistic) percentage.

 

regardless, there are worse positions to be in in sports. just have to play 1 series at a time, once it starts. with the way the sabres have been playing i wouldnt be suprised to see them get bounced in 5 in teh first round, or go 7 in the conference final. they find a way to play with teams that seem to better than them at times

[X. Benedict]

I think you're creating a straw man with that definition.

 

Certainly some teams have a better chance than others, based on the makeup of their roster, their coaches and, yes, their regular-season performance. Pittsburgh is a stronger contender than the Sabres even before getting a sand-bagged Crosby back. No?

 

In your vision of the playoffs -- anybody can win it -- shouldn't coaching come to the forefront? Lindy talked about the extreme parity in the league this season, yet his team -- with talent he identified as contender-quality -- is still fighting to sneak into the playoffs. I can only conclude he's an average to less than average coach.

 

A final question. Would you be content if the Sabres were in this same exact position one year from now? Seems like you should be.

First an aside about Lindy, the organization bet that they had a fast mobile puck moving defense. That didn't pay dividends until Jan. The team struggled. That's a development curve. The pairings have since come together. I think Lindy gets credit here. Also the team has adjusted to a brand of hockey that is 7th in the league in scoring by turning the center position into a committee of in play slides, now 7th in the league in scoring. Lindy has had some success pulling this team together. The first half was brutal....but Lindy underachieving is a thin narrative in my opinion.

 

As forStraw man? I was just discussing semantic content of "contend"

 

Playoffs are about attrition and survival. Disagree?

 

Forgetting records, if the Sabres are playing hockey a year from today like they played this weekend, then I wouldn't be altogether discouraged. Would you?

 

Do you not think the Sabres can win a playoff sereies playing the hockey they have in the past 7 days? I think they could.

 

If they do. Then there are 8 teams left. Once in the semifinals are they contending?

 

What if they win a second series...once in the conference finals are they contending?

 

I think this applies to any team.

 

(N.B. I'm really not trying to convince you that Lindy is a good coach, (I don't think that is possible) or that team flaws don't need to be addressed in the off-season, every team has a few weaknesses)

[PASabreFan]

First an aside about Lindy, the organization bet that they had a fast mobile puck moving defense. That didn't pay dividends until Jan. The team struggled. That's a development curve. The pairings have since come together. I think Lindy gets credit here. Also the team has adjusted to a brand of hockey that is 7th in the league in scoring by turning the center position into a committee of in play slides, now 7th in the league in scoring. Lindy has had some success pulling this team together. The first half was brutal....but Lindy underachieving is a thin narrative in my opinion.

 

As forStraw man? I was just discussing semantic content of "contend"

 

Playoffs are about attrition and survival. Disagree?

 

Forgetting records, if the Sabres are playing hockey a year from today like they played this weekend, then I wouldn't be altogether discouraged. Would you?

 

Do you not think the Sabres can win a playoff sereies playing the hockey they have in the past 7 days? I think they could.

 

If they do. Then there are 8 teams left. Once in the semifinals are they contending?

 

What if they win a second series...once in the conference finals are they contending?

 

I think this applies to any team.

 

(N.B. I'm really not trying to convince you that Lindy is a good coach, (I don't think that is possible) or that team flaws don't need to be addressed in the off-season, every team has a few weaknesses)

 

You don't have to convince me that Lindy is a good coach. Of course he is. Like Miller, he's just very overrated. And, IMHO, his time ran out in Buffalo several years ago; the team needs a change. The message gets stale. There's a reason he's known for longevity: only in Buffalo would he have made it this far. All of the other franchises can't be wrong, especially when you consider how many of them have been successful (Cup), while Buffalo has not.

 

You didn't really answer the question. If Lindy is an elite coach, and the teams are so even, shouldn't coaching push the Sabres far into the playoffs?

 

I just totally disagree with looking at this team over the past seven days or seven weeks. The core of this team can be looked at for the past four-five years. Barring some kind of Pegula miracle, they are who we thought they were. Squeezing into eighth place doesn't really change my mind.

 

It's just a goofy team. Second half of last season and first half of this season -- 37-34-11 (85 points). First half of last season and second half of this season so far -- 46-21-8 (109 point pace). With this much inconsistency built into their nature, I don't see them surviving the two-month grind that is the playoffs. I hope to be wrong.

[PromoTheRobot]

I did. They've managed to claw their way back into the playoff picture. I've acknowledged that too and I commend them for it. But alot of the implied posts here seem to say that because they are now in they have an equal chance of going deep, and history has shown us that it just isn't true. CAN they go deep intot he playoffs? Sure. But the odds are stacked against them. And as usual, someone who brings up that idea is labeled as negative.

 

As a fan, I want them to keep winning of course. But as a realist I am acknowledging that they don't have the same odds of success as the division leaders. Like I said upthread, the leaders may be flawed, but our 8th place position ought to tell us that our team is even more flawed.

If they make 6th instead of 8th they are the same team. So I don't see what the difference is.

 

PTR

[PromoTheRobot]

 

A final question. Would you be content if the Sabres were in this same exact position one year from now? Seems like you should be.

This year 8th would feel good because they clawed their way up to get there. If next season the were in 1st most of the year and choked their way down to 8th then no, I wouldn't be happy. If NJ makes 8th this season it would be an amazing event. You have to look at the context more than the end result.

 

PTR

[PromoTheRobot]

maybe i am looking at this wrong, but the way i see it is that there are 38 teams over the past 19 stanley cups. 6 of them where 7 or 8 seeds, making the percentage 15.78%. a much lesser (and i think realistic) percentage.

There are 19 cup finals. If 6 7-or-8 seeds make the finals it's 31.6%. It's 6 times out of 19 playoff finals, not 6 teams out of 38 teams.

 

PTR

[X. Benedict]

 

You didn't really answer the question. If Lindy is an elite coach, and the teams are so even, shouldn't coaching push the Sabres far into the playoffs?

 

 

Playoffs are a war of attrition. That means there is a ton of chance. People will go down, and it is hard to guess who. Can coaching give you an edge? sure. Does it? not necessarily.

 

If Timonen went down in Philly, for example...that could change a lot of dynamics.

 

Boston losing Chara?

 

You just never know.

 

I think if you get in the playoffs, anything can happen. Hockey Gods is just one way of saying that there is tons of chance in play.

[PASabreFan]

Playoffs are a war of attrition. That means there is a ton of chance. People will go down, and it is hard to guess who. Can coaching give you an edge? sure. Does it? not necessarily.

 

If Timonen went down in Philly, for example...that could change a lot of dynamics.

 

Boston losing Chara?

 

You just never know.

 

I think if you get in the playoffs, anything can happen. Hockey Gods is just one way of saying that there is tons of chance in play.

 

And if I weaseled my way into a sorority party at UB, anything could happen. But wouldn't. Six, seven and eight seed guys don't get laid. :)

[LGR4GM]

Here lets use two examples that are not NHL ones for fun. These are teams that overachieved. 1) Olympics last year. The US almost won gold and people said it would have been something to win a medal period. 2)This example says it all, Lake Placid, 1980. Yes any team has the same percentage chance to win a cup once the playoffs start. 1 out of 16. What their actual chance is based off of talent and such is unknown but if your all star teams fail because they rely on talent alone. If you work within a system that benefits a team sure you will get burned occasionally by talent but you will win because you are a team

[Eleven]

There are 19 cup finals. If 6 7-or-8 seeds make the finals it's 31.6%. It's 6 times out of 19 playoff finals, not 6 teams out of 38 teams.

 

PTR

 

If you're calculating the percentage of finals that have had a 7th or 8th seeded team participate, it is 31.6.

 

If you're calculating the chance odds, based upon history (since 1991 for some reason that I still don't understand), of a 7th or 8th seeded team making it in, it is 15.8.

 

A random draw would have a 7th or 8th seeded team reach the finals 25% of the time.

[LGR4GM]

And if I weaseled my way into a sorority party at UB, anything could happen. But wouldn't. Six, seven and eight seed guys don't get laid. :)

Lol, most times it wouldnt but if you weaseled your way into a sorority party and a chick was drunk enough and you were confident enough anything could totally happen. Daddy issues could help your cause. She might think you are really cute and just want some of that experience.

 

Remember don't be a fool wrap your tool or in hockey terminology bang home those scoring chances... hehe :thumbsup: