IKnowPhysics

Buffalo should attempt to acquire Khalil Mack.

Should be noted that we only spent a 2020 7th round pick for Coleman. If he's one of our best three receivers, he's already worth that and more.

Berglund will be fine. I'm just hoping Buffalo fans don't turn Sobotka into some hybrid of Jochen Hecht, Drew Stafford, and Alexander Semin.

A friendly reminder from a bastard with a decent memory: only 6.9% of you thought it was a good idea to pay Kane $7M AAV and only 10.3% of you thought it was a good idea to sign him to seven years. Kane has put up 77 goals and 132 points in the past three years, while Skinner has put up 89 goals and 163 points. Skinner is $5.725M this year. Skinner is now playing with better forwards than he was.

Botterill's trades since June 1 2017: 2017 3rd (Scott Walford) ==========> Nathan Beaulieu Grade: C- Magnitude: 2 out of 5 Reasoning: Beaulieu had an alright sophomore year in MTL with 28 points in 74 GP, but boy did he not seem to find a fit in Buffalo. Previous analysis I've done shows that he wasn't as bad as many would suggest, but he had a difficult time passing the eye test. Because he was relegated to a 5/6/7 role among defensemen that really had no business playing in the NHL (Falk, Fedun, et al), it suggests that paying a 3rd was a fair sticker price on paper (Grade B-) for what would end up being a poor actual return (becomes grade C-). Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, 2018 3rd (Jack McBain) ==========> Jason Pominville, Marco Scandella, 2018 4th (Linus Kronholm) Grade: A- Magnitude: 4 out of 5 Reasoning: Scandella aided an awful, awful defense, ended up being one the Sabres best two defensemen this past year, and proved he's likely a 3/4 guy on a contender. Pominville initially provided offense, and showed his future is a decent defensive forward. Cronholm is a project stay-at-home defenseman with good potential. Ennis and Foligno's move to MIN didn't improve their struggling production at all. Ennis would be bought out by MIN; Scandella and Pominville were both immediately better players than the players sent to MIN. 2019 5th ==========> Scott Wilson Grade: B+ Magnitude: 2 out of 5 Reasoning: Scott Wilson brought a level of effort and compete to a dogshit bottom six, and was rewarded with 1st/2nd line minutes that he shouldn't get on a contender. Helped the locker room. Probably will compete as a competent 4th liner. 2019 5th is cheap for an NHL-ready bottom six player. Evander Kane ==========> 2019 Cnd 1st, 2019 Cnd 4th, Danny O'Regan Grade: C Magnitude: 5 out of 5 Reasoning: Kane was producing bigly on a terrible Sabres team, but Botterill sought a culture shift. Waiting until the trade deadline maybe hampered return, but he was able to extract at least 2/3 of what he was looking for in a 1st round pick, roster player, and prospect. O'Regan was good in NCAA and so far he's good in the AHL. The loss of Kane's goals was a huge hit to the Sabres offensive production and caused a gaping hole at LW, but this may be offset by Skinner. Kane's re-signing with SJ enabled a conditional 1st round pick, increasing this trade from an F. Hudson Fasching ==========> Brandon Hickey Grade: C Magnitude: 1 out of 5 Reasoning: Giving a stalled Fasching other options in exchange for BU's captain that may evolve to a contributor in Rochester and adds a 6/7 stay-at-home depth defenseman in a defensive depth that's kiddie-pool shallow. Small potatoes. 2018 6th (Pontus Holmberg) ==========> 2019 6th Grade: C Magnitude: 1 out of 5 Reasoning: Nobody you like in the 6th round in a shallow draft? Grab trade ammo for next year. NBD. 2019 4th ==========> Conor Sheary, Matt Hunwick Grade: A Magnitude: 3 out of 5 Reasoning: Botterill picked up familiar assets in Sheary and Hunwick, adding to areas of need. Sheary initially (53 points in 2016/17) gets penciled in as the 1st line LW on a depleted LW before Skinner arrives, but will compete as a middle six wing on a better team. Hunwick, a former captain of Michigan, turned stay-at-home journeyman adds LH depth in a depleted D, and will fight Beaulieu or an up-and-comer for the #7 spot. A 4th for Sheary was pretty good value, adding in D depth makes the grade. Ryan O'Reilly ==========> Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vlad Sobotka, 2019 1st, 2021 2nd Grade: C Magnitude: 5 out of 5 Reasoning: Oof, what a kick in the nuts this initially was. Botterill traded Buffalo's jack-of-all trades and a major stat leader, one of the league's best two-way centermen, a potential team captain, and a Lady Byng finalist for a slew of names and picks. When the dust settles, we find it's possible that ROR asked to be traded, and if not, perhaps acted like he wanted to be. Botterill claimed "changing the culture" as he justifies the move and tries to bring back a large enough haul in the aggregate to prevent his tires from being slashed. Berglund can makeup ROR's defensive minutes. Sobotka adds quality bottom six depth. Six-foot-five Tage Thompson, 2016's 26th overall, shows promise and has a ceiling in the top six. 2019 1st is top-ten protected. 2021 2nd is miles away. At first glance, the trade looks like a sell off for future assets in Thompson, 1st, and 2nd. Upon deeper review, this was return was helped, if not driven, by analytics that say this trade works slightly in Buffalo's favor right now because of ROR's particular offensive contributions and Berglund, Sobotka, and Thompson contributions in other areas (and then add the picks on top). This trade will be defined by whether Thompson and Sobotka find success and then it will be potentially made great using or dealing the draft picks. Cliff Pu, 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd, 2020 6th ==========> Jeff Skinner Grade: A+ Magnitude: 5 out of 5 Reasoning: It's simple. Botterill robs Carolina for an elite scoring LW in return for no NHL-ready asset and no 1st round pick. It immediately gives the top line a replacement for Kane with very strong even strength shot generation, and lets Conor Sheary go to work in the middle six. This is already A+. If Skinner, who waived his NTC to come here, produces and re-signs, it could be the most Buffalo-favorable trade since Gratton-Briere. Boiling it all down (crossing out equal value): Net players: Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, Evander Kane, Hudson Fasching, Ryan O'Reilly, Cliff Pu ==========> Nathan Beaulieu, Jason Pominville, Marco Scandella, Scott Wilson, Danny O'Regan, Brandon Hickey, Conor Sheary, Matt Dunwick, Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vlad Sobotka, Jeff Skinner Analysis: Six players into twelve players. Equating Kane ~ Skinner, Foligno ~ Wilson, Fasching ~ Hickey, Pu ~ O'Regan, Tyler Ennis ~ Nathan Beaulieu + Matt Dunwick, this leaves the remainder: Ryan O'Reilly ==========> Jason Pominville, Marco Scandella, Conor Sheary, Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vlad Sobotka That's a 1A C for an entire 3rd line (Pominville, Berglund, Sobotka), a #4D (Scandella), a middle six winger (Sheary), and a high-ceiling young winger (Thompson). I think if O'Reilly implies he wants to be traded, your bottom six is trash, and your defense and wing depth are zero, you easily make this deal. Net picks (crossing out equal-ish value, ignoring years): 2019 2nd, 2017 3rd, 2018 3rd, 2020 3rd, 2019 4th, 2019 5th, 2018 6th, 2020 6th ==========> 2019 1st, 2019 1st, 2021 2nd, 2018 4th, 2019 4th, 2019 6th 3, 3, 3, 5, 6 ==========> 1, 1, 4 (bold = yet unused) Analysis: Eight picks into six picks, but moving way up from three 3rds and change to two 1sts and change; definite improvement. Conclusion: I think we're going in the right direction.

Yep. Fewer shots per 60 minutes than the league-wide 5v5 average according to the heatmap. What I really like about the map is that not only are more shots being attempted from critical scoring areas in total, there's also an increase in shot attempts from the opposite wing. It may just be a correlation that Skinner plays with better-than-average RWs, or it could be that he makes his linemates better.

Broke 20 EVG twice in those five years (both were with Buffalo), twice got 17 EVG (with 63 and 65GP, paced for more than 20 EVG in those seasons), and one injury-shortened season with 37GP. Close.

This trade has the potential to be a unicorn. Depending on Skinner's performance and contract extension, this trade is in the realm of being the type of old school ripoff that a franchise looks back on and asks "how the did we pull that off?" The type of trade that you just don't see much anymore, either because CBA or because pro scouting. The ceiling on this trade is ludicrously in our favor. When we acquired Danny Briere, we gave up Chris Gratton, who had 44 points in 66 games that year. Gratton was a higher price than Cliff Pu. Now I'm not saying Skinner will put up 95 points like Briere, but when Briere came to Buffalo, he wasn't quite yet the proven goal scorer that Jeff Skinner is right now, and we were able to acquire him only spending Cliff Pu and picks. When we talk about rebuilding a franchise and having to do it through the draft, we talk about it that way because a) we know that we could never reliably depend on other teams giving us large asymmetric advantages in trades and b) we know the CBA has mostly leveled the economic playing field, clamped down on player retention, and reduced the ability to consistently make big additions via free agency. This trade has the potential to break that way of thinking: it could be so asymmetric, it ends up considerably augmenting the home-grown talent, so much so that we may look back on the tank as only part of the rebuild. https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-skinner-a-gift-for-sabres-1.1152382 Since joining the league in 2010, he ranks 20th overall in total goals scored and 10th overall (4th among LWs) in even strength goals scored. Jeff Skinner is an elite goal scorer that is now a Buffalo Sabre playing with elite playmakers.

It's not too far to suggest the possibility that if he doesn't work out, he would be one of the better deadline rental prospects available for contenders. We could flip Skinner potentially for... a first round pick. Then Botterill:

I think it's worth it to post the whole thing here... And then it was brutally retweeted by the Sabres official account.

Ennis is a Leafs now. Just kidding, I like Ennis. But seriously.

And Carolina fans know that trading for Pu doesn't pass the smell test.

We acquired: A LW, a position of need, that scored 37 goals in 16-17 being centered by Derek Ryan and Victor Rask. In exchange for: A 3rd round OHL'er in Pu that maybe could have scored 32 points this year if he could break into the lineup, which wasn't likely. A 2nd rounder in a draft where we likely have three first rounders. This pick is about a 1 in 8 to 1 in 10 chance of being a top six forward or top four D and about a 4 in 5 chance of being 4th line or worse. A 3rd rounder two drafts from now. This pick is about a 1 in 24 chance of being a top six forward or top four D and about a 9 in 10 chance of being 4th line or worse. A 6th rounder two drafts from now. This pick is about a 1 in 50 chance of being a top six forward or top four D and about a 29 in 30 chance of being 4th line or worse. Multiply all that out and you get Skinner for Cliff Pu and Carolina getting an ~82% chance of not landing a top 6F/top 4 D and a ~70% chance of landing only 4th line players or worse. This is in our favor, really no matter what anybody thinks of Skinner.

Assistant to the

He signed an extension with the Islanders. That was a conscious decision. He did that.

5-0, haters.

Interesting Craig Custance article in the Athletic that probes the reasons that offer sheets aren't being used. Basically, nine GMs asked think that offering teams would have to way overpay to pry a player out, otherwise the home team would be foolish not to match, because it's thought that the draft compensation is too low (ie only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for a $8M/year star player). Another detail in that article was really interesting. Back when O'Reilly was on the Avs and his RFA contract negotiation stalled, he received TWO offer sheets. The Flames were one, which is the one he signed. Famously, Flames GM Jay Feaster would get absolutely ROASTED by the hockey sphere because it turned out that if the Avs didn't match the offer ($5M/yr x 2 yrs), O'Reilly would have had to clear waivers to play anywhere else (because of a rule regarding playing in Europe after the NHL season had started). But according to Pat Morris, O'Reilly's agent, another team made the same mistake that same day. Morris told Custance, "You'll never know the other team." I wonder which GM was interested enough in O'Reilly and had enough cap space and draft capital to try to do it...

Two way street. Players have also grossly failed to meet expectations when paid based on potential or unproven expectations. When a player's good, but might be bad, it's risky. When a player's bad, but might be good, it's risky. Gotta pay somebody sometime.

Put together a great senior year at Harvard with 42P in 36GP in 2016-17. Slipped from those expectations in Rochester last year to 22P in 73GP. Nonetheless, an alright signing to Rochester of a Buffalo native late round pick.

I don't think learning it is the issue. It's execution.

Vogl's pairings: Scandella-Ristolainen Dahlin-Bogosian McCabe-Nelson

According to Vogl, Botterill will start talking to Reinhart's agent in mid-July. He sees the other value contract signings, and surmises Reinhart's contract won't carry much risk, so it's possible to be for only 2-3 years.

Likely early forward lines with the current roster, according to Vogl: Sheary-Eichel-Thompson ERod-Mittelstadt-Reinhart Sobotka-Berglund-Okposo Girgensons-Larsson-Pominville Notes that lots of lines will be tried and that there is definitely room for a trade to improve LW. Also notes that Olofsson is almost a lock to start in Rochester.