pi2000

98% of his body weight is in his lower half... which is why he can't do a single pull-up.

you're right, actually TRpm i'll be away camping all of next week i would love too, but won't have internet sun-thur next week

i'm out

I'm just trying to get out ahead of it... it's inevitable.

Paul Hamilton just tweeted that he won't sign unless they agree to make him Captain.

That's nice, but I take Baker's opinions with a grain of salt, he always seems to hype guys up too much focusing too much on their positives and runs a muck with superlatives. That said, I was thrilled they picked him as he was easily BPA. He's going to be a star, but still a lot he needs to work on.

Good thoughts Flagg... a couple things. You'll need to adjust y (team goal differential) per player, based on number of games they played. eg, ARI was a -48 over 82 games, but Chychrun only played 68 games. (48/82) * 68 = -39.8 team goal differential for Chychrun.... it's a rough estimate at best, but gives a more accurate TRpm. I mentioned that TRpm isn't a good tool for comparing 2 players against each other when we're only talking about single digit differences... which could be accounted for by zone starts, matchups, linemates, pairings, etc... That said, ROR gets dzone starts, and matches up against the best opposing players yet his TRpm is a whopping +23. Kulikov was awful as we all know, had a TRpm of -10... he was a major liability. For some of the new players in 2016-17... Scandella: -15 Pominville: -9 Beaulieu: 0 Minny had a great team last year, they were a +49 as a team, and Scandella played about 30% of the minutes. You'd expect him to at least have a positive +/- but he was a -2. Does he get the tough matchups? I don't know, but that's not a good season for him considering Ryan Suter logged the toughest minutes and was a +12 TRpm... on a great team no less, that's impressive. Beaulieu was a positive contributor to Montreal's success last season with a neutral TRpm. You mentioned OEL. He took a step back in 16-17 compared to what he did in 2015-16. 2015-16: 21g 34a 55p -6 TRpm: +2 2016-17: 12g 27a 39p -25 TRpm: -6 I re-calculated Chychrun's TRpm based on the number of games he played (68), which gives him a -3. Your point about Reilly vs Polak is a good one. Personally I like Polak's game he's tough plays well in his own end, while Reilly like to take more chances with the puck which can come back to bite him... it's reflected in their TRpm :) Would rather have Reilly or Polak on your team tho? Depends on your needs.... but buyer beware with Reilly, he may create some offense and be nice PP guy, but at even strength his creativity can be a liability. That's the beauty of TRpm, it tells you which guys are liabailities to their specific team at even strength... back to OEL, he's not very good defensively, everybody knows that, but the guy is an absolute weapon on the PP and in the o-zone. Are you willing to sacrifice some d-zone lapses for an uptick in PP production? Those are some interesting decisions GMs need to make.

Perfect, thanks! I thought more about adjusting TOI, but you can still log a + while shorthanded or a - while on the power play, so you still need to count those minutes because I'm counting those goals for and against.... there aren't many goals in those situations tho. Some TR+/- for a few of our favorite Sabres last season (w/ some fuzzy math to account for fewer games played): A TR of 0 on a bad team means you're part of the problem. Foligno: +18 Bogosian: 0 Franson: +14 Ennis: 0 Eichel: +6 ROR: +23 Kane: +4 Reinhart: +10 Moulson: +10 Kulikov: -10 DLo: -1 Cal O'Reilly: -6 Gionta: +10 ERod: -5

I guess I didn't state it clearly... There's 6 scenarios: goals for at even strength, shorthanded or on the power play. goals against at even strength, shorthanded or on the power play. Plus/Minus only counts for 4 of those situations... - when you score at even strength - when you get scored on at even strength - when you score while shorthanded - when you get scored on while on the powerplay Understood, I noticed that, but don't really have the time to make those TOI adjustments.... but like you said, the differences would likely be minor. I'll probably do it at some point but need to get some actual work done today.

Another example, lets say Flagg's roller team wins 16-4. He played every other shift (30min); was on the ice for all 4 goals against, and 5 of the 16 goals for. The team won big, and he logged a +1... good game right? Not so fast... Flagg: x = 30min TOI y = +12 z = +1 % of minutes played = 50% expected +/- = +6 team relative +/- = -5 Booo, Flagg you suck! haha

Let's say your beer league team loses a game 10-0... you played every other shift (30min) and were on the ice for 2 goals against, you're a -2.... that sucks, but you feel like you played a good game since you were on the ice for just 2 goals against when your team was clearly outclassed. Wildcard: x = 30min TOI y = -10 (team goal differential at even strength, etc) z = -2 (your actual +/-) % of minutes played = 50% expected +/- = -5 team relative +/- = +3 !!! Yeah Wildcard nice game bud!

here's my formula for team adjusted plus minus.... x = player's avg toi y = team even strength goal differential; includes shorthanded goals scored and allowed (which count towards +/-); does not include PP goals for or PK goals against) z = +/- x * 100 / 60 = % of minutes played (x/60) * y = expected +/- (based on y) eg, if your team loses 10-0 (all goals at even strength), and you're on the ice for 30min, your expected +/- is -5. ((x/60) * y) - z = team relative +/- The difference of your actual +/- and your expected +/- tells you how well you're performing relative to the team. The obvious drawback with the plus/minus stat is that if you're on a bad team, then your plus/minus will always look terrible. However the team relative +/- shows how well you're performing wrt your teammates, so you can't blame a bad team for poor team relative +/-. The Ristolainen example below is a good indicator, he's actually a plus player this season when taking the team into context. Chychrun was a team relative -1, not bad for a rookie D averaging about 17min/gm. Chychrun: x = 16.66 y = -48 z = -14 % of minutes played = 27.8% expected +/- = -13 team relative +/- = -1 Ristolainen: x = 26.5 y = -37 z = -9 % of minutes played = 44.2% expected +/- = -16 team relative +/- = +7 Ristolainen 2014-15 (second year, first full NHL season): x = 20.6 y = -77 z = -32 % of minutes played = 34.3% expected +/- = -26 team relative +/- = -6 That said, when talking low single digits for team relative +/-, it's not a very telling stat. It's when your team relative +/- gets into the double digits that signals you're either significantly contributing to your teams success, or hindering it.

laugh more and smile for about 30s first thing in the morning after you get up nothing you wear is more important than your smile.

Did you watch the Bruins series? McAvoy was a turnover waiting to happen, he was a minus player on a playoff team. He's a nice prospect, but I don't see much upside. Sure Chychrun was a -14, but on a team that had a -63 goal differential, which is a relative team adjusted +/- of +4. He also saw nearly 17min/gm of ice time. Maybe it's regional bias as I saw Chychrun play up close here a few times, he reminds me of a young Duncan Kieth. Look up any 2016 redraft and you'll find him in the top 7-8 picks for good reason.

I still think he starts in Rochester with Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching, Erod, Malone, etc... They really really want to build a winner there and that can only happen if their best prospects are getting big minutes there.

FLA makes the playoffs.

What

Chychrun is and will be better.

Why? He's not that good.

True. But it was his decision to play there.

.....if he performs well, JBOTs tail will wag.

Paul Hamilton Can this guy just stop with careless reporting? Even if this is true why air it to the public? They guy needs to find a new job.

It's interesting to hear that he's obsessive about improving himself, but I'm not concerned about his mental stability..... maybe if he becomes Caption tho, haha. I'm going to share some of my personal experience.... I too had a similar mental state when I played competitively... it certainly had it's benefits but looking back I feel like I alienated some teammates because I was overly focused on my own play and less about how others were handling things... especially as a returning player in my junior/senior years. Sleepless nights thinking about what I did wrong on the ice, visualizing how to improve things in my head pretty much all day long, blaming myself for losses to the nth degree. My parents taught me that anything is possible if you just worked hard enough at it, so I felt like I could always be better if I just worked more, spent more and more time on it to the point of it becoming an obsession. Shouldering the blame for a loss because I didn't work hard enough at something that might have resulted in a difference making goal or preventing a goal. Then spend days on end obsessing about how to fix it. I'm sure a lot of players are that way to a degree. When it's your job and you're at the rink every single day for seasons on end, it's pretty much all you think about all the time and it defines who you are.., it's what you do, what you're there for... your sense of self worth revolves around it entirely so you better work at it as hard as you can, or quit the game and do something else.

Money can buy you a fine dog, but only love can make him wag his tail.