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Everything posted by JoeSchmoe
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Advanced Stats Say Goaltending the Issue, Not Defense
JoeSchmoe replied to JoeSchmoe's topic in The Aud Club
Is this what you meant to say? -
Advanced Stats Say Goaltending the Issue, Not Defense
JoeSchmoe replied to JoeSchmoe's topic in The Aud Club
Going back to why I made this thread- we're 9th in limiting high danger shots. Our D has been holding up their end of the bargain. -
Advanced Stats Say Goaltending the Issue, Not Defense
JoeSchmoe replied to JoeSchmoe's topic in The Aud Club
https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm You have to sort by statistical quantity you're measuring. -
Looking at Moneypuck, the Sabres goaltending is sitting 24th in the league in 5 on 5 Goals Saved Above Expected. At the same time, the Sabres are 9th best in High Danger Shots Against (albeit 19th in Medium Danger). At the end of the day, the D are giving up golden scoring chances, but there are 21 teams that are doing worse. But, there are only 8 teams getting less dependable goaltending than us. Once again, not getting league average goaltending has been our Achilles heel. I'll also say, nothing deflates a team better than a weak goal against.
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Doesn't it?
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Comrie is 63 out of 73 in the league in goals saved above expected- That's starters and backups.
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What do you think of his rebound control? How about his positioning?
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I think Comrie's save % is the biggest concern. You won't win many game at .885. Hopefully he improves.
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I just checked. The stats aren't as bad as what the eye test would have you think. His on ice expected goals for is 53.5% on Moneypuck. Something on the site doesn't add up though. Almost all the forwards besides the 4th liners are above 50%, and almost all the D except Dahlin and Clague(?!?!) are below 50%. Mathematically, you'd think it should be proportional both ways since there's always a proportional number of D and F's on the ice at all times. The only thing I can think is Moneypuck expected goal % isn't 5 on 5 only. If it's not, it seems like a bit of a meaningless stat since it would be so highly skewed based on time spent on PP and PK.
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Krebs is not an NHL level player yet. I think he would benefit from at least another couple months playing in Rochester. I haven't seen him play at all this year, but maybe Sheahan can take his spot for a while.
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I kind of hope Eichel gives another full heel postgame interview. I'm pi**ed the Sabres lost, but hopefully he cranks the volume on the bad guy role.
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We win this game if Comrie plays anywhere near NHL average.
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Krebs is the guy I'm sitting.
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It's also important to leverage the regional aspect of the team. Yes, Buffalo is a small market at just over 1 million people. However, Rochester has 1 million in their greater area, and the Hamilton/Niagara area is well over 1 million. Tacking on the Greater Toronto area plus Kitchener-Waterloo, you've got one of the biggest population centers in all of North America within a 2 hour drive away... Likely in excess of 10 million people. The issue is attracting the fans that live in the 1-2 hour away radius. It's probably easier to do for football since the games are all on the weekend, and it's more of an event. But, if I'm the Pegulas, I'm going all out on attracting the outer markets for both hockey and football.
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Are there really any other better locations? As a Canadian, I feel the downtown location is best for the convenience not only for me, but it's central location for most Buffalonians. The restaurant options and general atmosphere of the Canalside area add to the whole gameday experience as well. I love everything about it. People coming in from the Greater Rochester area might be the only ones to benefit from a more suburban location. Are there any recent examples of stadiums or arenas moving to the suburbs that proved to be a good financial decision?