mjd1001

Actually, in the last 8 games between Buffalo and the Flyers, its 4 wins, 4 losses. In the last 12 games, its 6 wins, 6 losses. Go back to 2021-2022, the Sabres had a 5 game win streak over Philly. And that was much the same Sabres team as now (Thompson, Tuch, Dahlin, Krebs, Quinn, Power, Samuelsson, Bryson, and UPL were on those teams...Tage with 5 goals across those 6 games and the Sabres leading goal scorer)

I agree with most of this, I still have some differences though. The goals allowed. I think a lot actually IS on the goalies. The defense isn't perfect, they aren't one of the best in the league, but over the past 2 years I still maintain I am seeing the same things: Goalies allowing more 'weak' goals than they should. Yeah, I get forwards have 'nhl shots' and can pick corners, but when a goalie is set in position, facing the shooter, isn't screened, and the shot is coming from 10-15 feet out (or more), he should be making more saves than he does. And the D-men, they get blamed a LOT more than they should (at least on this forum). I'll give 2 examples/reasons: 1.) The forwards are SO bad in their own end that the D-men get hung out to dry. I have seen forwards just kinda roaming around leaving the trailer uncovered, chasing pucks they will not get to and leaving huge areas open in the D-zone for the oppents to walk into. How does that make the D-men look bad? The D-men are often in position, but because of zero defensive play by the Sabres forward in their own zone, the D-men have to choose, do I stay in MY assigned spot, or do I cover the WIDE OPEN area of the ice the forward on my team left open? When I watch replays I see the D-men often play it 'half way', trying to cover a little bit of their area, and a shade a little bit to cover for the Sabres forward who is 'out to lunch'. If a scoring chance came from the Defensemans are...the only reason they weren't there is they had to cover for a forward, but the fanbase IMMEDIATLEY points out its the D-mens fault because in the narrow view of the camer it looks like it. 2.) my 2nd point is related to my first. There are a few examples of this, but 2 weeks ago the Sabres allowed a goal and I swear there were 4-5 posts right away blaming Power. When I watched the replay, Power was the ONLY guy who played it correctly. The Sabres center was McLeod, he was right behind the puck carrier on the other team and that guy put a little move on McLeod and Mcleod fell for the move and lost him. The puck carrier went toward the corner, and the Sabres winger on the near side was trailing so far behind the play he was a non-factor. So Power, you can see, is watching all of this. As the puck carrier goes into the corner, Power actually looks up, sees he has no coverage in front of the net, but he also sees the guy put the move on Mcleod and leave him in the dust, so now he is all alone approacing the side of the net. Power looks up again, turns to look into the corner, and then shades toward the puck carrier because there is no support from the winger (and none coming). The puck ends up going to the front of the net, McLeod didn't get there in time, and a goal is scored. On the Camera, you can't see the winger WAY beind the play, and on one angle you don't see McLeod getting absolutly roasted by the other team, so while Power is hung out to dry, he LOOKS like he didn't know what he was doing when in fact he was covering for 2 forwards who either made a bad defensive play, or where lollygagging up the ice. Yeah, I know there are legit times Power (or other D-men) DO make bad plays, but I swear there are a lot of "obvious" bad plays they make that actually aren't bad plays, when you watch the entire play unfold and see the awful support they are getting from the forwards. Cozens was guilty of this and you got rid of him so thats good. Quinn might still be the biggest offender in the D-zone, he is awful, one of the worst forwards in the league in terms of supporting the D-men. McLeod has taken a huge step back in this regard this year vs last year. Tuch's strength is forchecking, not playing in his own zone, I get that, but Tuch also really isn't that good inside his own Blue line. I realize Zucker was playing hurt early in the year but he is guilty of this a lot this year too. Sometimes the forwards need to give more effort to get back. Other times when they get back they actually have to do 'nothing' but hold their position, clog up the shooting and passing lanes. This is where Tage is actually pretty good and doesn't get enough credit. He gets inside the blue line and holds his position, and now with his size and reach, that entire area of the ice is a 'no fly zone' for the opposition. He LOOKS like hes not doing anything. He's not chasing loose pucks, he's not forcing turnovers, but he is LETTING the D-men do the work down low instead of forcing them to have to constantly monitor the ice and recoginze where the forwards are messing up and then look bad when they try to figure out how to cover for them. I think more often than not, the best way a forward can help in their own end is to have your Center just patrol the center of the ice, the wingers ONLY engage the boards when there is legit chance to get a puck, and DO NOT CHASE the puck all around the ice. Again, hold your postion, play zone defense, and let the D-men engage the puck with the knowledge they aren't going to be hung out to dry by a forward who is wandering/chasing.

I'll take choice number one, number three, or number five.

I agree in a way. When I think of the term 'three headed monster' I think of something scary in a dangerous kind of way...not a negative way. I don't like this one either but the saying "If you have 3 goalies, that means you don't have 1 (legit) goalie"...is more appropriate than 'three headed monster'. Any catchphrase that lasts more than a day or two, however, can get annoying.

Any new ideas for OT? -4 on 4 with no offside or icing (pretend the lines aren't even there, its a pond hockey free-for-all!) -4 on 4 but only 1 guy listed as a 'defenseman' can be on the ice at any given time. (we see how bad forward are when they have to defend a rush pretending to be a D-man) -how about we stay with 3-on-3, but you can only have 2 skaters inside your own blueline at any time, so every offensive zone possession will be 3 on 2, but there is a chance for a breakout rush in the other direction at any time? -Goalies before overtime have to change pads and wear pads that are MUCH smaller (overtime pads!) along with they can't use a goal stick, but have to take on of their forwards or D-mens regular sticks. -instead of a shootout, lets make it a TAD more like real hockey. The shooting team starts with the puck at their own blue line, but with 2 guys out there. The opposing team has 1 defender, so every 'rush' on the shootout isn't a glorified penalty shot, but a 2-on-1. Not a breakaway competition, but rather a 2-on-1 break competition. C'mon, there has to be some crazier ideas out there!

I can't figure out what role he should have on the PP. He is a player that has the offensive skill, supposedly an accurate shot....but he hasn't really found his 'spot' on any PP unit yet. Point? Nope, as you said. Setting him up for one-timers? He's not really a 'one timer' kind of shooter. Hes going to the net more, but he certainly is still not (and hever has been) a guy to stand in front of the net to take a beating. Down low on the wall as a 'pivot'? Maybe, but he's decent as a puck handler/distrubutor, but not stellar. I'm not really sure where he would truly excel on the PP.

A goal is a goal is a goal, they all count and they are all important. But one thing that is different is he is scoring pretty well on the PP for them, but not so much even strength. Dylan Cozens has 7 PP goals in 47 regular season games for Ottawa. He had a total of 12 for Buffalo in 341 regular season games. In Ottawa a PP goal every 6.7 games, in Buffalo a PP goal every 28.4 games (and remember, he spent most of his career in Buffalo on the 1st PP unit and I think in his time here only Tage had more PP time as a forward than Cozens did) On the other hand, even Ottawa fans are coming to the realization his has little 'hockey sense' and is a liability on the ice even strength. And he has gone 20 straight games without an even strength or shorthanded goal. Its PP or bust for him right now. We view the trade as Doan/Kesserling for Peterka, and Norris for Cozens. That makes sense because that is who they were traded for, and Doan is a winger like JJP and Norris is a C like Coznes. But in terms of quality of play, how they slot into roles besides their position...its more like Norris is taking the 'role' that JJP had, and Doan is taking what we wanted from Cozens (some toughness, leadership, net front presense, 2 way game, etc.) I'm confident from that point of view Dylan Cozens has a bit more 'raw talent' than Doan, but we are getting out of Doan a LOT more of the stuff we wanted from Cozens but never really got.

Last year a lot of us were let down by Jack Quinn. Personally, I had a hard time imagining another forward in the entire league that got non-4th line minutes that was worse then he was or hurt his team more. He "looks" better this year, so I decided to look at some of his numbers from last year, to so far this season: The 'pure' numbers: Last season: 74 games, 15 goals, 24 assists, -18, 123 shots, 12.2% shooting (82 game pace: 16.6 goals, 26.6 assists, 43.2 points, -20 136 shots) 14:52 ice time This season: 26 games, 6 goals, 8 assists, -6, 50 shots, 12.0% shooting (82 game pace: 18.9 goals, 25.2 assists, 44.1 points-18.9, 158 shots) 16:33 ice time So his numbers aren't all that different. SLIGHTLY better in terms of pure production, but that might have to do with his additional minutes. In terms of production per minute on the ice his total points are slightly DOWN this year vs last. How about his 'analytics' even strength (presented in % form, where 50 is 'even', above 50 is good, below 50 is bad) Last season: Corsi 48.4, Fenwick 47.4, actual goals for/against 43.8, expected goals for/against 48.8. High danger chances 39.4 He was on the ice for a 'goal for' every 22.1 minutes, on the ice for a 'goal against' every 17.2 minutes. This season: Corsi 47.3, Fenwick 47.3, actual goals for/against 43.6, expected goals for/against 49.1. High danger chances 53.2 He was on the cie for a 'goal for' every 21.1 minutes, on the ice for a 'goal against' every 16.3 minutes. Power Play: last year with him on the ice the team scored a goal once every 8.3 minutes. This year its once every 12.3 minutes. So the PP was better with him on the ice last year compared to this year. So this year vs last year, his numbers are REMARKABLY similar. He looks better this year to me, but he is only SLIGHTLY better (if anything, his defensive numbers are actually somewhat worse than even last year, and his offensive numbers, as mentioned above might simply be due to more ice time/opportunities this year.) There are TWO ways his analytics are noticably better than last year. I'm not sure it makes him a better player, but it might be why he LOOKS better: -Skating. His max skating speed is up from 21.77 mph last year to 22.38 mph this year. And speed bursts over 20mph are up from 0.86 per game last year to 2.31 per game this year. He 'looks' faster to the naked eye, and that looks good to us fans. -Shot location. Last year he simply didn't go to the front of the net. Last year he had a Shot on goal from the high danger area right in front of the net ONCE every 7.4 games. This year, its once every 2 games. So while it may not mean he's a better player, us fans like it when a player goes to the front of the net and gets 'dirty' goals, no need to look any farther than Doan. So my personal conclusion? Hes better this year...marginally. I still need more. He LOOKS better this year, he is skating better this year, he is going to the front of the net in the offensive zone better this year. But his production and analytics are only SLIGHTLY up this year, and his defensive numbers are actually down slightly. Again, he's better, but he still needs to take more steps forward than he has so far. (for anyone wondering, I got the numbers from the NHL.com page, the NHL.com 'edge' page, and the Naturalstattrick.com 'on ice' section)

Ottawa has a "Cousins" but that is Nick Cousins. When you say "Cousins" and Ottawa, I assume you are referring to Dylan Cozens (with a Z)? There is some strange media perception about Cozens that they like him a lot more than how good he is. He hasn't really gotten better. He has a couple more PP goals, that is about it, but his defensive numbers/awareness are as bad as ever. He's been there for 53 total games now (including playoffs) and has 14 goals, 20 assists and is a -16. Thats an 82 game pace of 21.6 goals, 30.9 assists, and -24.7. His last 2 years in Buffalo (we wont' even count his 'good' year) he played 140 games, had 29 goals and 49 assists and was a -17. Thats an 82 game pace of 17 goals, 28.7 assists, and -9.9. Not all that much different. A smidge more offensive productions, but his +/- is more than a 'smidge' worse. And keep in mind, this is supposedly on a 'better' team where he is dead last in =/-. Not to mention his analytics. Similar to Buffalo, when he moves aound in Ottawa, the guys that are put with him usually have worse analtyics with him, and they get better when they are taken away from Cozens. In Ottawa even strength, when he is on the ice the opposition scores a goal every 17 minutes. When he was in Buffalo it was a bit better at 17.5 minutes..and supposedly he has a 'better' team and better goaltending behind him now. If he got better once he left Buffalo, why is this bad number (along with many others) actually worse with Ottawa? Deep dive into his analytics, and in Ottawa his Goals for vs against percentage is VERY negative (worse than it was in Buffalo), and expected goals are negative, and his corsi, fenwick, and shots for/vs/against percentage are all lower than he was in Buffalo. He is, basically the EXACT same player he was in Buffalo. I'd argue every so slightly worse and he is dragging his linemates down more than he even did hear and is on the ice for more goals against.

It seems like we've been here so many times... The glass ceiling they can't break through. So for the Sabres... Getting to this point is the steel rebar reinforced concrete ceiling.

A guy like Bryson can have a good shift, a good. Or even a good game where he could be the best player for the team over that short period of time. Two things you have to consider however.... What situation was he playing in, as if in who was he playing against and what was the game situation? And also, someone might be the best player for a short period of time, but those numbers should even out over a long period of time. The analytics I don't think are wrong, it's just that when you take such a small sample size, it is just that... A snapshot.

I like some of the analytics... And they can tell you a lot, but you cannot draw absolute conclusions from them.

I'm shopping UPL and taking the best offer. If that is a mid round pick where they have to retain some salary...fine. If its future considerations...fine. If its actually something of value...fine.

This was brough up a few places before...I think he is pushing really hard becaue he is worried about his place/spot on the Olympic roster. If he isn't starting over a journeyman and a guy who just broke into the NHL after playing in the AHL and ECHL, it doesn't look good for him.

I dont base it just then recent play. There is too much 'noise' how are your Thanksgiving when evaluating goalies on a handful of games. They are who they are over the medium so long-term. I'm going to give more leeway to a talented young guy who is still developing. I'm not impressed all that much with UPL. He's done what he was supposed to do, no more. Give me a few games where he is the reason they win....and I'll back him a bit more. Haven't seen that yet.

After how bad he was last year. I need a MUCH larger sample size of good play from UPL before I make the decision he has 'separated' himself from everyone else and is the clear #1. Especially because the numbers Ellis put up are mostly the result of one really bad game.... And the sample chosen just happens to not have a bad game by UPL.... Although he has a lot of them in the past year and is perfectly capable of continuing to have them.

I don't understand going after Krebs for that hit. First of all, I think its dumb that players have to answer for legal hits. 2nd, that wasn't even that big of a hit. I dont' get it.

Peterka's usage is interesting. 7 times this season he has had under 14 minutes of ice time for Utah. That's 3rd, almost 4th line ice time in those games. His overall ice time is the lowest also since his rookie year in Buffalo. He's 5th among their forwards in overall ice time, but they certainly aren't pushing him to get a ton of ice time, thats for sure. Interestingly, he's only 6th among their forwards in PP ice time per game. I don't think they are upset with his play, I just figured he'd be on the first PP unit, and probabably getting closer to 17-18 minutes of ice time per game...which he is doing neither yet.

17 wins, 10 losses....as per NHL.com so far through 2 periods.

So, 3 pretty balanced lines you can just roll out there one after the other.... And then a real traditional 4th line.

I'd be good with Kozak on that 4th line taking the spot of Greenway. Kozak, Krebs, Malenstyn would be a good 4th line to me. I don't care who plays center or Wing. Krebs or Kozak, whatever. I'm surprised they are starting him on that top line. I would think being his first game back with live action, you give him 3rd line minutes +PP time. Once he gets used to the conditioning/speed of the actual game...after a game or two, move him up to the first line with the additional minutes then.

I can see it both ways. I have a stronger feeling about start times on Saturdays though. I love Saturday afternoon games...yet at the same time I wouldn't want to give up Saturday night games. In a perfect world, I'd love the Sabres to play a ton of home games on Saturdays....alternating between 1pm afternoon starts where the building is usually pretty full with kids and families...and then in between have the 7:00 or 7:30 Saturday night game.

A turnover that results in an uncontested shot from the front of the net that becomes a goal is counted the same as a non-turnover but bad positioning that eventually results in an uncontested shot from the front of the net that becomes a goal. If the Xga number is good, but there are a lot of turnovers that result in good scoring chances, that means that there is probably really, really good overall play to make up for those turnovers that result in that good xga number. I want that xga number low. If someone said I could reduce the number of turnovers by the D-men by 5 per week, but in return I have to add from other places 10 shots from the slot due to bad positioning, therefore raising that xga number....I'll take the turnovers with the overall lower xga.

If I'm not mistaken, those great chances from defensive giveaways are factored into the high danger chances allowed.

To me its not unexpected at all. zero is neutral obviously...3 teams at at zero. Of who is left...14 are positive, 15 are negative. That is about as close to even as I would expect.