mjd1001

After 8 goals, the Sabres are now 8th overall out of 32 teams in offense (3.23 goals per game). 2nd in the league in even strength regulation time goals. Tage tied for 3rd in the league in goals scored. If only the defense/goaltending were better...but they have not been. Sabres are the 2nd worst in goals per game allowed. 38 goalies have played over 30 games this season. UPL is 34th out of 38th in GAA and 36th out of 38 in save percentage.

Quinn is now scoring so that is good, but even the last few games his 'overall' game, getting back into the D-zone, getting to and controlling loose pucks, needs a LOT of work. The entire 4th line has been and keeps on being a lot worse than it needs to be. As far as the forwards go, I'm personally still only really happy with Tuch, McLeod and Tage. Peterka is decent, but has too many lapses. Zucker and Greenway can't seem to play enough games in a row. Krebs has been a pleasant surprise for me, but that isn't much because it was coming off a low level. I like Bensons effort, but I think he isn't quite as great as many think. Kulich needs to show me what he is doing for more time. So the forwards are in decent shape, but I wouldn't say we can be confident yet that they are not an issue at all.

We have someone in the lead in a category. UPL is in the lead for the most goals allowed by any goaltender in the NHL this year. Its also the most goals allowed in a single season by any goaltender during the drought, with still some time left to pad his lead.

I had the game on but had company over, we 'kinda' watched the game but I didn't get to focus on any of it. Caught up on reading this thread and watched some of the highlights and looked at the stats. Bryam is...not an 'issue' but I'm not leaning more toward trading him for anything of value rather than signing him to a long term deal. You are playing Philly, you are getting prime minutes, Dahlin is out. This is your chance to step up in any way, and I didn't see it. He became, for the most part, just another guy out there. Unless he is paired with Dahlin, Bryam seems to be just a pretty good skating-but below average D-man. That seems to be getting reinforced as more time goes on.

I think Quinn's spot on this roster is tenous at best. There is a chance if he is in camp, its a 'prove it if you want a spot on this team' camp. Peterka. He SHOULD be here, but is there any truth to him not wanting to be here and moved? Greenway and Zucker. Not exactly 2 guys you can rely on for 82 game each. I think you almost have to figure another winger (young guy from Rochester or a free agent) that will spit time with them. Lafferty, Krebs, and Malenstyn all all signed, but all at $2m or less. I could seem one or two of them not being a regular on the roster. Norris. Seeing he has hardly played, and who knows if he will even play the rest of the year, for all intents or purposes he basically will be a new guy next season. There is some room for change.

I don't think they are going to come out and tell us, but if this is true...I don't care so much to know who are the guys he thinks need to go (Actually, I WOULD like to know that but...) I'm just as interested in knowing who are the guys that he thinks ARE the leaders, ARE the ones he wants here. The only clue I think we have is ice time. Who gets the most, and who has been increasing in ice time as the year has gone on and he got to know them: -Tuch leads among forwards. Thompson is 2nd. As far as who has gotten MORE ice time as the season has gone on: -Most notable is probably McLeod. He has more time as the year has gone on, in the past month he is by far and away the leader in ice time among forwards. In the past month he is averaging 19.5 minutes per game, with several games over 22 minutes (and one almost at 24 minutes). Those are big, BIG time minutes for any foward. This coming from a guy who, earlier in the year, was averaging 14-15 minutes per game. -Krebs was only getting about 11 minutes of ice time the first month. Since then he is now around 14 minutes. -When Peterka has not been injured, his ice time has gone up. First half of the season he averaged just over 17 minutes per game, since then almost 19. Before he was traded, Cozens Ice time went down through the season. From 18.5 minutes in October, to 17.5 minutes in November, to 16.5 minutes in December. When Tage got hurt Cozens went back up to 17.5 minutes in January but it didn't last...16.25 minutes in Feb and barely 16 minuetes even in March until he got traded. A definite downtrend in ice time. None of the other forwards showed a clear trend. Kulich, Benson, Quinn, some ups and downs in ice time but no clear trend either way. Also hard to pick a trend among D-men. Dahlin leads, followed by Byram and Power...but no set trend in regard to increases or decreases over the season. Based on how much Lindy is using McLeod and the workload increase he is getting...it will be interesting to see next season, if McLeod is signed....if they go with rotating "A"'s again if he gets one in place of Cozens.

This is where I am hoping the analytics dept and the coaching staff spend a lot of time on film. What is UPL doing differently this year compared to last year? Break down every single goal, maybe every single shot he faced, compare it to the year before. Is it an easy fix to get him back to how he was playing last year? Can it be fixed at all?

This is one thing that makes me hopeful reading that in regard to him being a good 3rd pairing guy. When I think of a 3rd pairing guy, or a 4th line forward, I start with a few things: 1.) Plays very very hard. 2.) is 'coachable' (doesn't just do his own thing). 3.) has some raw talent (as a late 1st rounder, you would think he does have some raw talent. Again though, I haven't really seen anything myself great out of him, other than a bit of effort.

Oh, I agree. But the in the video they seemed to focus on the word "culture" a lot. Unless with regard to Cozens, they use "culture" to really mean "won't do a damn thing we tell him to do."?

Yeah, I just would like to know who those players are. I'm guessing Cozens was one? It seemed obvious the entire room, including Ruff, were fine with making that move. For all I complained about Cozens play, he seemed like a nice guy and he seemed to put effort forward, so I wonder what the issue was? If Pegula is giving Ruff a big say in the roster, I wonder if that may lead to more changes in the offseason. Basically, he doesn't know the guys that well when he walked in the room, now he spent a whole year with them and its time to make more major changes?

I guess of everyone in the room Ruff is the most 'outisder', as he has been here the least time...I guess? Also he would be closest to the players working with them everday. When I hear Ruff say once or twice in there (and in a couple other interviews) where he hints, or outright says they need a change of culture of some kind.....I'm curious to exactly what he is thinking? Specific players? The way the entire organization has trained/coached before?

I didn't see much of the game last night, but from his previous games, it just way too little to go on. I haven't seen much to make me notice him in a good way, so maybe that is coming soon, but right now he gets a "whatever" from me.

It makes sense, but with that contract, I'd rather just keep Norris and hope he gets healthy and pass on Pettersson. I think EP isn't getting moved at all now with his no-trade kicking in. If you wanted him, the deadline was the time. 2 years ago, I posted someplace on this forum that Pettersson was on the verge of super-stardom. I was thinking top 10 player in the league. Whether through injuries or just my over-estimation, the only signs of him even being close to that now are the contract he signed.

Well, he did coach the Amerks, so was he fired from that job by the Sabres "organization" at the end of his tenure there? Or maybe he quit and took another job. it was a while ago.

I watch less of all sports now than I used to (except for hockey.) In the past I would never miss a Bills game, but now I watch maybe half of them....but of all sports, Baseball is the one that has fallen the hardest for me. As a kid, If I could watch 100 games a year I would. Collected baseball cards and sticker books. Even into my 20's, if I traveled for work the tv in the hotel room went to whatever baseball game I could watch. Probably watched over 120 games per year (if I was working at home it was still on the TV as background noise.) Now, I haven't been to a game in over a decade and its been close to 10 years since I watched a single game from start to end. 2-3 times a year and once or twice in the playoffs I'll put the game on, but I rarely last more than 10 minutes before reaching total boredom or ambivalence and just turn to something else. I loved watching baseball and following it. Now, its not directly about anything like politics or who plays the game or anything like that. I don't know what it is but I just can't get into it at all. Its like Soccer for me. I tried it, I forced myself to watch it, but I just can't do it.

I just added to my post before you responded. I agree with you, but the scoring chances they allowed....McLeod didn't lift up the other 2 guys...they brought him down to their level. But as you said, I'd give it a little more time and a few more games to see where it goes.

Ok, I'm going to agree with you that they seem to have some offensive chemistry coming together so you should keep that going. But to me its not a no-brainer. They have scored and have some good chances, but they are NOT a good pair up and down the ice. I still see both of them going deep, not communicating which is making other teams zone exits a lot easier and leading to odd man rushes. When Quinn isn't scoring, he is pretty much invisible in the neutral zone or the defensive zone. The numbers back that up. Even recently, the number of shots they allow, the legit scoring chances that are allowed when they are on the ice together is usually the worst line on the ice (even the last few games). So yeah, for now keep them together and see if they can continue to develop chemistry in the offensive zone. I don't beleive NHL guys should need 'confidence', but if it does exist, let Quinn get some of it back. But if they don't get better in their 200 foot game, their defensive zone and neutral zone play may negate the offense they develop. The last game or so you put McLeod between them. Before the game, shots allowed, scoring chances allowed, high danger chances allowed...Quinn and Peterka have been pretty bad, and McLeod has been positive (one of the best on the team the whole year). In the defensive zone, McLeod didn't 'lift those guys up', rather they brought him down to their level. So yeah, I'm not saying break them up. And I'm happy with how good the goals looked. But to me, I'm still on Cozens was the #1 problem on this team...UPL's play this year is problem #2. Problem #3 hurting this team is not the play of the defensemen, but Quinn needing to play better across the ice.

I get the point, but I don't think the breaking point with the fanbase exists..meaning there is not one point where things fall off the cliff. The decline in interest with this team and fan support has been there, but it has been a consistent, month after month, year after year decline. Yep, its worse now than earlier in the year...worse than last year, worse than 5 years ago....but its not a 'breaking point', its just a continual slide down. As far as changing things, it seems to me to come down to money. At least since Covid, how often has Pegula made a decision, or allowed the team to make a decision, where he made a big-time investment? Taylor Hall? But that was a 1 year deal. The extensions to certain players? You kind of had to lock up Dahlin, and while Cozens didnt work out, the Tage/Cozens extensions were not out of whack with what others were playing. Investment in coaches/scouting/hocker people? he's paying 'fired' guys when he didn't have to, but he certainly doesn't seem to be looking to pay top dollar, or at least 'competitive' rates to attract the best people.

If that is the case, do it now and stick with it for the rest of the year. Byram has not been good, and does not have good underlying numbers either except with anyone but Dahlin. I like the idea, but I want to see Bryam out there with Power every shift for the rest of the year to see if it works. This year they have only played 300 minutes together (about 1/3 of their total time) even strength. But so far, what I have seen is they seem 'clumsy' together. Numbers? Their goal differential together is a -6. Fenwick is negative. Shots for vs allowed is negative. Expected goals for vs allowed is WAY negative. Scoring chances, high danger chances...all negative. Most of the underlying metrics for both of them are worse when they are together than they are when they play with anyone else. (of course the 'everything else' numbers include time with Dahlin which bumps those ups) Anway, if you are going to keep Byram, they should get a much larger sample size of him playing with someone, ANYONE else than Dahlin before they pay him a prety big extension. Looking at the underlying numbers with Bryam since he has been here....something interesting I have found..and it might just be random or a result of a small sample size: Bryams underlying metrics (like the ones listed above) are the best with Dahlin (or course) and the other guy they are decent with is Bryson. His numbers are the worst with Samuelsson and not much better than Power. In a very, VERY small sample size Byram seems to play better with quicker, puck moving guys (like himself) and worse with the bigger guys as his partner. In limited minutes with Bryson and Byram together (132 minutes es), their Fenwick is only slightly negative, yet shots for vs against, goal differential and high danger goals are positive. Shots for and xgf/ga are only sightly negative. Again, maybe something to it, or maybe just random.

I can't blame Adams for giving UPL the contract last year. I know some didn't want it, but based on how he played, his age, his pedigree...I would have done the same thing. Going into this season with UPL as the starter, Levi a full year in Rochester, and Reimer as the backup actually was a good plan to me and probably exactly what I would have done. I just don't think many expected UPL's play to drop off SO much from last year. Yeah, he was a top 5 goalie in the league the 2nd half of last year...maybe you didn't expect THAT to continue, but I certainly did not expect his play to drop off so much.

Maybe the reason he is playing poorly is because he was trying to hard as you said above. That may be true...but if it is...it still leads to him not being good enough. You don't want it to happen again to another goalie, and it may not be UPL's fault..but he is playing so poortly it is currently an issue for this team. A lot of the success last year was due to UPL's good play at the end of the season. He was one of the top 5 goalies in the league the 2nd half of the season. From Jan 1 last year until the end of the season, UPL had 4 shutouts, 25 games with a save percentage over .900 (including 9 games in a row at one point), and 19 games with a save percentage about .920. And they weren't all easy games. 15 times he faced over 30 shots, a couple times over 40 shots. Only 2 times did he have a save percentage of .850 or less. A 25 game to 2 game ratio in his favor of games with a saver percentage over .900 vs .850 or below. This year since Jan 1, he has 1 shutout, only 8 games with a save percentage over .900, and only 6 with a save percentage over .920. 10 games he has a save percentage below .850. A 8 game to 10 game ratio against him in terms of of games with a saver percentage over .900 vs .850 or below. Maybe the team plays differently in front of Reimer, but since Jan 1, Reimer has played in 8 games. 7 of those 8 he has a save percentage over .900. (and those games are among games against Edmonton, Carolina, Winnipeg, and Ottawa, and NONE of the bottom 5 teams in the league) For those saying UPL's failures this year are a result of how bad the team is in front of him....the numbers on Reimer aren't just with 1 or 2 games anymore...once you get to 8 games played, you have to wonder is it REALLY the team just sucking in front of UPL but not in front or Reimer? or is it actually UPL? I don't want to get rid of UPL yet. We know he has it in him to potentially be a very good goaltender. It actually happened last year. But he has been a major problem with this team this year. Get to the offseason. If you have a phantom injury let it heal. Get your head back on straight. Because while I want him to probably be the starter next year, if he plays next year like he has this year, then there is a major issue. Its not all on the team in front of him, most of his issues are his.

Bernard-Docker has some points early and that is good...but I still need to see a lot more from him. I am rooting for him to be good of course, but when I watch him play, I don't really see anything yet other than a 3rd pair/7th guy. Still happy with the trade overall. I think the team needed to move on from Cozens....and Norris? If he has something lingering shut him down. Get him as healthy as he has been in years even if that means we don't see much of him until next season.

For the analytics fans: Kulich-Benson-Thompson line had the best numbers. They were well into the positive territory with both Fenwick, Corsi, shot differential and scoring chance ratio. All other 3 lines were negative in all of those areas. Peterka-McLeod-Quinn line by far the worst analytics. They did have a goal, but scoring chances were 3 for them and 8 allowed, High danger chances were 1 for and 7 allowed. Expected goals were almost 6-1 in Ottawa's favor when they were on the ice.

UPL playing worse than last year...I still think is in the top 3 reasons why this team wasn't in contention. Reimer is not the long term solution obviously, UPL needs to be better.

I don't think that many more. At 37, going on 38 years of age, I just think Reimer needs a little more time off between games.