mjd1001

If I'm not mistaken, those great chances from defensive giveaways are factored into the high danger chances allowed.

To me its not unexpected at all. zero is neutral obviously...3 teams at at zero. Of who is left...14 are positive, 15 are negative. That is about as close to even as I would expect.

They have been playing well lately, in the past 2 weeks, there have been multiple games they looked like the best line for the Sabres on the ice. Malenstyn has been interesting for me this season. He's not making a huge impact on the team playing the 4th line and getting less than 10 minutes per game even strenght ice time. I thought he started the season "OK", then had a stretch where he played really, REALLY bad, and now he is actually playing his role very well.

I'll take Ellis with those numbers that are heavily influenced by one Really bad game but a bunch of good games... Rather than somebody else who has similar numbers but it's nothing but a bunch of mediocrity. When evaluating a goaltender, I would much rather look at what percentage of their games are they even or positive on the goals allowed versus expected goals allowed... Rather than raw numbers averaged together.

In the last 4 periods the Sabres: -have 20 high danger scoring chances to the opponents 9 -have 4.59 expected goals vs the opponents 2.48 -have 1 goal to the opponents 7

Going by the numbers, this may be a good reason why Byram isn't as good as people say. Its not just the actual goals you mentioned, its 'expected goals' which represents the quality of shots you are getting vs getting: In terms of XG% this year... Timmins numbers are lower when playing with Bryam than with everyone else. Dahlin is lower with Bryam than with everyone else. Kesserling is lower with Byram than with everyone else. Power IS better with Bryam, but its a very small sample size (only about 53 total minute together) If Bryam is so good..or even good at all, he should be 'bringing up' the performance, and numbers of most of the guys he plays with, not the other way around.

And...the team you play tomorrow is on a 7 game win streak, has 19 of the last 20 points, and just took down Colorado. Things are not looking up...

Moving Connor Timmins doesn't turn this team around though. Even without him and his worst games, this team isn't much different. The failures this year are about Dahlin morphing into a turnover machine (at least it seems like it), Byram getting top minutes but not being close enough to deserve them, Tuch's forchecking and backchecking disappearing to the point he is a liability without the puck, average-to-below average goaltending, McLeod taking a major step back (in terms of HIS play without the puck), a lot of injuires...and other things. Timmins to me is WAY down the list of problems this team has.

the thing is, if they did lose 10 games in a row, I still don't think Pegula would clean house. He might make a move or two, but I don't think there is a chance of a 'house cleaning' until the offseason, and even then I'm not sure it will be/would be 100% of what is needed.

Does this team have an 8 game winning streak in it? Right now its looking like .590 points percentage will get you to the last playoff spot. To get there, the Sabres need to win the next 8 in a row. Beat Minnesota, Then Winnipeg. They Philly, then Winnipeg again. Next beat Calgary, then Edmonton, then Vancouver, and finally Seattle. Do all of those things, without a loss, you just MIGHT be in that last playoff spot.

Lyon was a bit rusty because he didn't play that much. That UPL's fault for taking up all the starts recently.

UPL would have stopped that one

Bogosian, is he still playing? let alone without a visor?

The guy lately I can't get a feel for is Timmins. At times he looks good. A he can penlatly kill, he has a decent shot, he can move pretty well, he plays like he could be a good 2nd pair guy. But the other times he makes plays like he's a rookie, or just is invisible. You don't ever seem to get a quality "3rd pair" guy play out of Timmins. He's either '2nd pair quality good' or 'should be in the pressbox' bad to me.

The only thing disturbing about that was, OBVIOUSLY Tage really still felt something about that hit...he shouldn't have had to be the first to address it.

Other than his first 1 or 2 fights in the NHL when he was a lot younger where he didn't look good, Thompson has been borderline dominant in all his fights.

This doesn't bother me that much. Not that much at all. The guys have lives and yeah you want them to be dedicated to their profession but... Any problem I have with UPL is I still don't think he's playing that well. And I don't think this is really contributing to his bad play.

Um, for me its a thought. "I" never thought of it. It never entered my mind that it was done on Wed of this week. So yeah, I'm not speaking for the board as a whole I am speaking for myself. I don't now what else is the definition of a 'thought'...when in this case i simply said I did not have one about the topic.

No, never thought of it.

They have 13 games between now and Christmas, 16 between now and the end of the year. Lets just use the end of December (16 more games) for easy math. By then they will have played 39 games. 78 possible points. The last playoff spot is usually around 58% of the points, and right now it is tracking almost exactly that way. So by the end of December, they want to be on pace for 45 points. They currently have 22. Can they get 23 points in the next 16 games? That would put them right on track to where they need for the math. Even 19 or 20 points will not get them to .580, but will have them gaining ground. If they finish the calendar year with 41 points they are 'still in it'. Finish with 45 points and they are right on track. The target record should be something like 9-5-2 between now and the end of the year. Not sure this team can do that though. Maybe if/when Norris comes back and he plays well.....

Is that your complaint? That the thread is open on Thanksgiving? Because thats a pretty decent and ironic one if it is...

Statistically regarding UPL. And yeah, I know defenders of him are going to say stats aren't perfect. I agree, they aren't, but they are what we have other than our 'eye test'. Looking at his play a little differently..how many goals does he actually allow vs the 'exected goals' allowed for each game? Expected goals being statistically the quality of all shots he took translated into a league average of how many goals would/should be scored. (again, it may not be perfect but its probably the single best stat we have) And yes, last night might be an indication of the fact the stat isn't perfect, the expected goals allowed doesn't take into consideration blatant bad plays by the defense. But over the course of a period, a game or even a series of games, the number tends to 'even out'. Vs Pitt: 3 goals allowed, 1.09 expected goals allowed Vs Car: 1 goal allowed, 2.71 expected goals allowed Vs Chi: 3 goals allowed, 1.86 expected goals allowed Vs Col: 3 goals allowed, 2.97 expected goals allowed Vs StL: 2 goals allowed, 0.67 expected goals allowed Vs Wash: 3 goals allowed, 2.02 expected goals allowed Vs Tor: 4 goals allowed, 1.58 expected goals allowed. So with the exception of the Carolina game, he has allowed as many, more more goals compared to the quality and quanity of the shots taken against him. Ellis has a a negative expected goals above average stat right now, just like UPL does. The difference is most of Ellis' bad number comes from one game that brought his whole season down. UPL is just pretty consistently below average.

True, because this fanbase hasn't seen Ellis be absolutely awful for the majority fo the past 1+ seasons.

I'm not saying UPL had an awful game. But we have seen a lot of games where the Sabres were 'goalied' this year. Where non-Vezina winners made incredible saves that led to a Sabres loss. I need UPL to have some games like that. If he did, they likely would have had 1 or 2 goals tonight. He didn't play awful, but he was the 2nd best goalie on the ice tonight.

Rangers leading right now in th 3rd, Leafs tied in the 3rd. One goal by the Leafs and just like that the Sabres back at the bottom of the conference.