mjd1001

Lets not forget about their goaltending, the same issue facing the Sabres this year. And yeah, i know the goalies numbers have a lot to do with the team in front of him...I get that, but Swayman has fallen off a cliff. Swayman went from a CAREER .919 save percentage to .895 this year. And again, not just a bad team in front of him, he has looked bad, allowing a lot of goals this year that he made the saves on last year.

There has been a lot of talk about Krebs within some threads, but no recent threads about him or discussion of where he is with this team next year. -Is he still that "13th forward" on the team? If they actually sign some vets in the offseason is he the 'odd man in/odd man out'? -Is he the 4th line center? -Is he a middle 6 player? Since the Cozens trade (removing a Center from the team) and Norris not really playing (Norris not being available to fill the Center role that was vacated by Cozens), Krebs has stepped up his minutes and his play/production. Norris played 3 games after the trade and has not played since. Since Cozens has been gone and Norris has stopped playing, the team has played 12 games where Krebs has had the opportunity to 'step up' into a higher role. In those 12 games, Krebs: 12 games, 4 goals, 5 assists, +7, 14:10 minutes per game (82 game pace 27 goals, 34 assists, +48...yeah, I know small sample size) BEFORE those 12 games, Krebs: 63 gp, 5 goals, 12 assists, -7. 13:37 minutes per game (82 game pace 7 goals, 16 assists, -9) Lets take it one step further. For most of the year, even in the first few games after the trade deadline, Krebs was playing with the 'lesser' players on this roster, 4th line guys, Quinn, Brett Murray, Lafferty, etc). 7 games ago, Tuch was moved to Krebs line and they have been linemates for the last 7 games. (Zucker has been on the other wing most of the time, with Rosen and Kozak spending some time with them too) In those 7 games with Tuch on his wing (give him a legit good player): 3 goals, 5 asissts 7 games, +8 Krebs hasn't dragged down Tuch either: 7 games with Krebs as his center: 6 goals, 5 assists, +6. Now, their 'analytics' together aren't stellar (Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, expected goals, high danger chances, etc) are all either slightly above or slightly below average), but the results in terms of production has been there. Ok, a lot of info above, it may mean something, or maybe its too small of a sample size. The thing I'm thinking of...has Krebs 'turned a corner' into a legit middle 6 center when given the opportunity, minutes, and decent linemates? Or is it a mirage, only looking good based on a small sample size?

Analytics on the game. Another great game for Tage's numbers, another awful game for Quinn. Its not just Tage's goals.....even shots and possession that line dominated: Benson-Kulich-Thompson: +29.4 Corsi, +19.6 Fenwick, +26.5 shots (outshot the Bruins 13 to 4 when on the ice), expected goals +27.5, Scoring chances +38.9 (They had 16 scoring chances, they allowed 2), High danger chances +25. Peterka-McLeod-Quinn FINALLY broken up after being disasterous for the first few minutes together: Corsi -16.6, Fenwick -12.5, shots -31.5, expected goals -33.5, scoring chances -26 (all numbers relative to a 50-50 split being even) Peterka-McLeod-Tuch: Corsi +12.5, Fenwick even, Shots +7.1, expected goals +20.8, scoring chances +30. Quinn was moved to a line with Krebs and that line was only together for a few minutes, but their numbers were decent. Negative Corsi, Positive Fenwick, Even in shots, positive exptected goals, negative scoring chances allowed. Taking out actual goals and looking at shots/expected goals and high danger chances, the Tage-Benson-Kulich line continues to dominate game after game. Quinn..is still an issue. Whatever line he is on is gets worse once he joins it, and the line he leaves tends to get better once he is gone...game after game. He needs to get better in his overall game (yes, that sounds like a broken record but its true game after game)...he is becoming the 'new Cozens' of this team.

UPL left room on the far side of the net on the 2nd goal. Even if the shot wasn't deflected the only side he was going to get beat on was the same side. From where the players were and where the shot came from, there should be zero room for a goal to even go in on that side. The first goal, I just disagree. He got out of position by taking the shooter, the set up to score would have have even happend if every Sabres defender wasn't basically in the same far corner of the ice.

I've had enough of that JJP, Quinn McLeod line. Its just not working well overall. As I mentioned above though, UPL needs to stop that. The first goal wasn't on him, but the 2nd one was. He saw it, wasn't screened that much and it was a weak shot on top of all of it. On 2nd look, was the puck tipped before getting by UPL? Possibly, that takes a bit off of him, but it wasn't tipped that much and he still left the near side open.

On the first goal, I don't put that one on UPL. As much as I don't like UPL's play lately, he was playing the shooter which is what I want him to do on that first goal. I don't think he was out of position, the rest of the team was. About 3 seconds before the goal was scored (see picture and diagram below), Boston had 2 guys open and uncovered on the near side of the ice. ALL 5 Sabres players were on the far side of the ice, every single one. I can't even blame the D-men, once the D-man goes into the corner to chase the puck (he should), his partner shades over to the center of the ice (he should). Its on the Forwards to take the upper near wing. The forwards didn't do that. That first one's not on UPL, its on the other 5 guys, mostly the forwards in my opinion. Now the 2nd goal, to me that is all on UPL, you have to stop that, no questions asked.

Not sure, but 2 things to note. He only has about 10 minutes with Samuelsson. One or two extra shot attempt either way can vary the numbers greatly. To me the bigger issue is, while it is a very small sample size and we need more time, his overall numbers are pretty much what most guys on this team are: very good with Dahlin, average-to-below average with anyone else. I think I need a larger sample size on him to take much away from the analytics.

Like most Sabres D-men, he has great numbers when out there with Dahlin, pretty average-to-below average when with anyone else. With 50 being 'neutral' (same for vs against when on ice): In about 10 minutes of ice time with Dahlin: Corsi 61.1, Fenwick 64.3, Shots 75.0, Expected goals 58.1, Scoring chances 50, High danger chances 50. In the 98 minutes with ANYONE other than Dahlin: Corsi 39.3, Fenwick 41.5, shots 45, Expected goals 43.4, scoring chances 38.5, high danger chances 36.4 Most of his 5 on 5 ice time is with Power (78 minutes). With Power (78 minutes): Corsi 43, Fenwick 44.8, shots 47.6, Expected goals 47.2, scoring chances 44.3, high danger chances 37.0. Don't look at his numbers with Samuelsson. Its only about 10 minute together but they are ugly.

Ok, I'm going to start out by saying the Defensemen on this team are NOT stellar. I'm not doing an all out defense of the defensemen. However, I'm going to say something I have said other times on this board: The forward play in their own zone often makes the defensemen look a lot worse than they are. Again, they defensemen aren't all great, not even close. But many times, MANY times I'll watch a goal scored against the Sabres and the D-men look out of position, or look like they don't know what to do. The replay seemingly confirms that.....BUT.... Watch the replay from other angles and you get a different story. Watch the play develop not 2-4 seconds before the goal is scored, but watch it a few seconds beyond that and you get a different story. Many times when you watch other angles other than what you see on TV, you see forwards floating back into the Zone. You see forwards that are chasing the puck instead of playing their zone or covering a man. And what happens? Defensemen have to make a choice...to stay in THEIR zone covering THEIR guy...or to play things 'half way' and not vacate their zone but to cheat toward the open winger or D-man from the other team that was left uncovered while the Sabres forward is playing pond hockey. In those situations where a goal is scored against the Sabres, the D-men look clueless but in reality they were put in a bad situation by the forwards, and have to play things 'half way' and can't react to puck going down low. How about this one, watch the Sabres D-men on a 2 on 2 or a 3 on 2 against and you'll see something (especially if you are lucky enough to go to a game in person and sit close to the ice) that you don't see as much with other teams. The Sabres D-men pointing, yelling, and sometimes FRANTICALLY pointing and yelling at opposing players that they want the forwards to cover, as the forwards often just skate back with their heads down not knowing what the heck they are doing. Again, the Defensemen make mistakes on this team. They are not a good unit, but they aren't as bad as many think. Coverage help from the forwards goes a long way to good team defense. I will maintain the Sabres woes allowing goals this year are primarily on bad UPL play. But beyond that, I think it is just as much, if not more the fault of the forwards play in the D-zone as it is the Defensmans play in the D-zone. If the Sabres do go out and get a higher priced, veteran D-man to help out, you just may find that, without improved play of the forward group in the Sabres zone, that 'veteran' D-man will not look as good as we hope. Probably the BEST way to illustrate this is the PK. You can go onto NHL.com and view replays of every single goal the Sabres allow shorthanded. There are 2 things that are true more than not. 1.) the Sabres PK is much better when they maintain their PK "box". They allow the most goals when that 'box' loses its shape or integrity. 2.) the VAST majority of the time they lose that positioning/integrity, it is because of the FORWARDS getting out of position and chasing, not the D-men. Not 100% of the time, but much more than not if you watch all the replays. (I personally watched the replay from multiple angles of every single goal the Sabres allowed this year up until about 2 months ago when I just got tired of doing it)

I always would rather have a higher draft pick, but there are times to 'go for that pick' and times not too, and most times are not worth it. Your above example is good. Another one to illustrate that development, and luck/random chance might be looking at Tage Thomnpson. He has turned into one of the elite goal scorers in the league. He was drafted 26th overall. In that draft the Sabres drafted 8th and took Alex Nylander. Other top 10 picks that year included: Jesse Puljujarvi, Oli Juolevi, and Tyson Jost. Thompson was drafted as center (listed as) and was the 9th taken overall. Yeah, you can go to any draft and find someone good taken in the bottom of the first round who turned out better than someone taken in the top of the first round, but that is the point, isn't it? You always would rather have the higher pick, but unless you are going #1 overall, is picking a couple spots higher worth losing? Maybe, but also maybe not.

Whenever I get too down about the Sabres, I think about what you said above that is bolded. As a Kid, sure, I wanted them to win, but it wasn't always 'playoffs or bust' or 'win the cup or bust'. Hockey was a game that was fun. I enjoyed the game in front of me. The standings were secondary to seeing one individual good game. Playoff positioning? Spot you are drafting? LOL, worry about that later or not at all.....I just saw a goal and the loud horn went off and it was fun!

Not to keep falling back on analytics, as others have said (and I personally DO believe myself) analytics don't tell the whole story. But they do tell SOME of the story.... I looked at Quinn this year to see where his numbers are good and where they are bad, mostly with who he plays best with as his center. His numbers are decent with Tage, but most players are good with Tage. So what about everyone else he has spent time with? He's the best with Krebs, by a pretty good amount. They have played 200+ minutes together. Not a ton, but certainly not insignificant. With Krebs as his center, Quinn's Corsi is almost 7 points higher than with everyone else combined besides Krebs (including Tage in that mix). Fenwick over 5 points higher. Shots 4 points higher. Expected goals almost 10 points higher. High danger chances 7 points higher, and actual high danger goals for vs against 14 points higher. I don't think this proves that he should immediately go back with Krebs and his problems are solved. But, he looks lost without the puck playing with McLeod, so I'd like to see him play a few more games with Krebs before the year ends.

I think its a combination of Dahlin missing games. Dahlin and Thompson being 100% healthy. Cozens not so much chemistry..but him being awful without the puck. And them facing a lot of backup goalies. Oh, and 'decent' goaltending now and horrible goaltending from UPL. I think its a magic mix of a little of all of the above.

If you look 2 -3 posts below my post about this game's analytics, you can see the analytics on them are even worse for the last few games they have been together. I usually don't go to the analtyics first. My "eyes" tell me Quinn has been invisible the entire year outside of the offensive zone. I go to the analytics to see if the numbers back that up. They do. When he is on the ice, the other team dominates the puck. Its been like that all year, with various linemates for him. To me, Quinn doesn't make as many 'mistakes' as Cozens, the bad giveaways, the awful decisions. Its just he...I don't want to use the same words but nothting else works, he is invisible, he's a non factor in the neutral zone and D-zone. He doesn't even break up any passes, get many loose pucks. Its almost like when he is on the ice, the other team is on a PP. I'm not rooting against Quinn, not at all, but I'm desperate to see him contribute in other ways than scoring. I'm looking for it, i'm looking hard for it, but I'm not seeing it yet.

They were the worst line analytically this game, as I posted above. Postionally for the year, that line is AWFUL in only 90 minutes together as a line: -Corsi -56 (61 for, 117 against) -Fenwick -34 (50 for, 84 against) -Shots -22 (30 for, 52 against) -scoring chances -36 (26 for 62 against) For only playing together for 90 minutes, this number is HISTORICALLY bad -High danger chances -23 (7 for, 30 allowed), see above, this is beyond bad, this is monumentally bad. Quinn is the factor there. Without Quinn, Peterk and Mcleod together have decent numbers. When you add Quinn to them, they numbers nose dive. If Quinn isn't scoring, he's a problem. His numbers playing with Cozens were near the bottom of the league in terms of chances allowed against when he was on the ice. Now Cozens is gone and he's dragging down McLeod. He really needs to work on his game outside of when puck is on his stick if he is going to stick around.

Early look at the advanced stats for the forward lines: Kulich-Benson-Thompson. Great: +8 differential on Corsi, +7 Fenwick, +7 shots (7 for, 0 allowed), +3 scoring chances, +2 high danger chances. Malenstyne-Östlund-Lafferty: Pretty good: +2 Corsi, +2 Fenwick, +2 shots, +2 scoring chances, even high danger chances. Zucker-Krebs-Tuch. "OK": even Corsi, +2 Fenwick, +1 shots, -3 scoring chances, -1 high danger chances. Peterka-McLeod-Quinn. Pretty bad: -7 Corsi, -5 Fenwick, -4 shots, -4 scoring chances, -5 high danger chances (zero high danger for, 5 against, that is bad) On Defense, Bernard-Docker has his best analytical game of the season for Buffalo: +8 Corsi, +7 Fenwick, +6 shots, +2 scoring chances, -1 high danger chances.

I still don't like the McLeod-Quinn-Peterka line. Quinn I still think is the worst Forward on this team in terms of defensive coverage. Peterka is a bit better but not much. You are taking a pretty good/responsible center and giving him 2 of the worst wingers on the team (in terms of positioning and coverage). He is not lifting them up, rather those 2 are bringing him down. I don't think you can have both Quinn AND Peterka on the same line, they simply put too much pressure on their own D-men.

I'm still totally happy with the trade. Why? I don't think there was much of a market for Cozens. Norris appears to be a very good player who has some injury issues. A lottery ticket in a way. I'm more than happy to exchange Cozens for a lotter ticket. There always seemed to be rumors about other teams being interested in Cozens, but they were only rumors, and no concrete offers really came out of them, my guess is because there weren't any. This may very well have been the best offer out there.

In almost every 'sports' transaction involving money, (tv contracts, ticket prices...almost anything)...there are 3 parties involved in the end. The Owners, the Players, and the Fans. Nothing profound here, but the Fans are the ones with the least voice that they use, and they are always the group that is taken advantage of (Owners and players argue amongst themselves about who can take the most money from the Fans).

Ok, we don't go to concerts that much anymore. Maybe 1 or 2 at an arena every 5 years, and on average 1 to 2 per year at Artpark. But I have this argument with my wife all the time. She insists on recording as much of the concert on her phone as possible. I mean its not a big argument, she can do what she wants, but I always ask her why? There are hundreds, maybe thousands of other people who record the concerts and post them you can watch online, and more importantly many professionals with better locations record the bands we are seeing that, when she watches them after are much better than her recording. I want to know from her, isn't the point of going to the concert to see and hear it live...to have the memory of that? not the memory of watching it through your phone screen? The kicker is, I don't think she ever re-watches any of them. She downloads the clips from her phone to her computer, transfers them to a portable hard drive, and those drives are packed away in a closet someplace. I guess to each their own. And as far as your point about not being able to get away from the phone, an examples were were talking about: -We have season tickets to Sheas for the musicals/plays. I go to some of them with my wife (some we give the tickets to family members) and I noticed last weekend that so many people are on their phones leading up to the show starting, and then when it starts, there are still some people that have to finish that text, have to read that social, have to finish that game that they have their phone open a minute or so into the show. Then intermission, those who don't get up to take a walk (like me) or go to the restroom, I'd say more than 50% are on their phones. When I got back from my walk, just the 2 rows in front of us, there were people my age (middle age), a younger couple, and a LOT of senior citizens. More than half on their phone. Even the 80+ year old woman, she's on her phone, not talking to the people she is with but scrolling away. Again, to each their own.

First, is the jump in the cap for the next couple of years that already including these numbers? Maybe not totally, but is some of the increase in revenue already 'baked in?" Beyond that, the old deal averaged $375m per year. This new deal averages $916m per year. That is an increase of $541m per year. Divide that among 32 teams and you get $16.9m per year. Now about half of that goes to the cap, half goes to the owners, so the 1/2 of that going to the cap is $8.45m per year. That isn't $8.45 one year, and then another $8.45m the next...that is $8.45m per year on AVERAGE over the next 12 years. So I'm pretty sure they will 'pro-rate' the increase. I think the cap goes up because of this, but I don't think we are going to see massive, year-over-year increases.

I like the move. Rochester is making the playoffs, if they lose a game or two extra and move up or down a spot in the standings so be it. I am one who thinks its good to 1.) Reward some of the young guys in Rochester, even for a game or two, with a few games with the big club. 2.) Give them a taste of the NHL, remind them what they are working for, See for yourself how they fit in (even in a short stint) and let them see for themselves how close/far away their game is by playing against NHL players. I'd rather have him not slotted on a 4th line, but you still accomplish the above with him there.

I don't know how much your daughter follows the team and how she feels about it. But, I'm guessing there is a chance she doesn't feel the emotional lows with the losses after losses that a lot of us do. Many of us had our 'fandom' grow in the past attending games. Sure, I mostly watched on TV, but as a little kid I went to many games at the Aud growing up, and while I did follow the standings, the product on the ice that particular night was more important to me than the standings.

Yep, if your daughter wants to go with you, then go and enjoy it (or hope she enjoys it).

Checking in on a former Sabre....Mittlestadt is having a rough year, and its gotten worse on Boston. Since he got to Boston, they are 2-9, with those 9 losses being the last 9 in a row. He has 2 goals and 2 assists, is a -11 in those 11 games (82 game pace of 15 goals, 15 assists, -82) Colorado moved him pretty quick after signing him, and now he is even worse in Boston. Is there something going on with him? Or was he just worse a player even here than we gave him credit for?