mjd1001

St lous has allowed the most goals in the league. Their goalies have the worst Save % in the league. Can we please get a goal?

Its clear to me they were the 2 worst players that caused the most harm to this team last year (even more than Cozens). Not a good sign if you are giving them both "another chance" and they end up costing you points/games you might need at the end of the season.

Ok, I'm really close to being done with the UPL experiment. That wasn't screened, he was set, he was facing the shooter. It wasn't a blast. That was just a bad, bad goal by the goalie. I expect my goalie to make that save every time.

So the biggest positive to his game on that card is that he has 0 penalty minutes.

To Pile on Jack Quinn a bit more: This season of the top 10 forwards in ice time for the Sabres even strength.. Jack Quinn: -2nd last in Fenwick % -last in Corsi % -3rd last in shots for/against -He's negative in goals for/against, negative in expected goals for/goals against, negative in scoring chances for/agains, negative in high danger chances for/against.

"Scoring chances" in the first: St. Louis, 2 scoring chances 1 goal. Buffalo, 6 scoring chances, 0 goals.

In one period he's moved his SV% up about 10 points already.

Something happened to him in the 2024 calendar year. Yeah, it could be an injury but he had an injury earlier and came back and played well. -In his first full season, he was as productive as he was last year plus his +/- was a lot better. -His 3rd season he scored at nearly a 30-goal-per-82 pace -Then last year, his production dropped, and he basically became the worst 2-way forward in the league. He stopped going to the net (almost totally), started making a lot more mistakes defensively. His plus-minus got a lot worse. AND, if you look at his analytics, pretty much every teammate-linemate got worse when they played with Quinn than they did with anyone else. He even brought Cozens analytics down. He has flashed a bit of good play this year, but when you average it out, he is still costing the team more than he is contributing to it. Maybe you just keep him around to play Ottawa, sit him the rest of the year as your 13th forward. In the last 2 years... -Vs Ottawa: 5 games, 5 goals -Vs all esle: 82 games, 13 goals

I think Skinner made less mistakes. Skinner hung around the blue line, was alergic to going too deep into his own zone, but he didn't kill you with turnovers and mistakes. Quinn is actually worse that way right now. Personally I want to give Quinn half the season, but after 40 games if he has under 12 goals AND is still making mistakes, it might make the team better to bring up a young guy from Roch to take his spot (even if they give you 5-10 less goals per year, with a little common sense and hard work they may cause you to give up 5-10 less per year or more from your own net).

Quinn has played better this year than last. Thats not saying much, but he has. The issue with him is 2-fold. 1.) For where he plays and how many minutes, can you rely on him for 20+ goals? 2.) He's not a good 2-way player (neutral zone/defensive zone) but can he at least not cause you major problems with mistakes. He's on pace for about 18 goals this season. The team needs better, but he's in the ballpark. Defensively though, each of those mistakes matter. Again, he's better than last year, but still no where close to being where he needs to be.

Their goalie makes a great save, our goalie lets in a shortie because he can't get over quick enough.

In net for St. Louis, Hofer's numbers look pretty bad, but he's not a bad goalie overall. This year he had 2 awful games (actually a game 1/3) where he allowed 10 goals on 28 shots. -The rest of his games this year, he has a .887 save percentage. -Last year it was .904 in 31 games. -The previous year it was .914 in 30 games -The year before that it was .905 in 6 games. He as a better career GAA and save % than UPL. So yeah, hes not great, he had an awful stretch this year...but he is capable of having some good games too.

Last year the Sabres had only 6 teams below them in the standings, the worst of the worst. Against those 6 teams, they were 8-7. Vs the rest of the league they were 28-39. So yeah, they did lost 7 games to the bottom 6 teams in league on one hand, but they still were much better vs the bottom of the league than the teams above them.

My personal opinion is neither one is an aberration but neither one is who they are. They are a combination of both. They are a team that is just outside of the playoffs. They are a combination of three games that they were at the start of the season with the better team that they've been since. Now when they get some injured players back, let's see if they can improve on that.

I think people blame Power too much. I pointed out a few games ago.. power was on the ice and a goal was scored against the sabr.. when if you break down the replay he was the actual only player on that entire side of the ice that played it correctly. So yeah, I agree. There are people who have it out for power that will just blame him for things that aren't even his fault if he was anywhere near something bad that happens. Quinn, on the other hand, I have been very tough on and I believe he fully deserves it. He has played somewhat better this year... But still not a complete game. Last year, however, I truly think he may have been the worst forward in the NHL of guys who played a regular shift in their top 9 around the league. Tuch is good, he is solid all around, he plays a complete game. He's not perfect though, he does make mistakes And he does have bad games.

I posted that a couple of days ago so I forgot what site I went to to get the data... But the number I came up with was for all of the goaltenders combined. Obviously the majority of that being UPL but including everyone.

True. But I think part of the reason some of us are feeling frustrated is in the middle to end of October, They won three out of four games over the Panthers, Red wings, and Leafs, by multiple goals. Since then, while they have accumulated the loser point, they've actually left the ice as the losing team 4 out of five games.. with the only win being a shootout win... No actual regulation victories. Yes, of course we want them to make the playoffs in. Getting points are the way you do that... But ultimately I watch hockey to see my team win on any given night. That hasn't happened much lately.

Absolutely not. First the public service announcement... This is a message board. This is where we discuss different points of view. This is not a place to gather a consensus and then wash our hands and say job done. Just because you don't like it, it doesn't mean that any critical discussion or negative opinions are 'biotching' Next, I believe I'm overall one of the more positive people on the team... At least on the margins. There is some to like, but there also is some to dislike with this team and again.... go back to my first point: That's what a discussion board is for. If you want to bottom line it.. They aren't eliminated from the playoffs yet... but as of right now, they have underperformed the rest of the league. Yes they can still turn it around but as of this moment.. they are a below average team. They are out of a playoff position. They have a negative goal differential. I'm not in the camp of fire and trade everyone... But certainly there are negatives to be discussed.

I'd swap Thompson for Tuch. I sure want to keep a 28 year old Thompson getting paid $7m per year for 4 more years....rather than a couple year older Tuch who might be signed to his middle-to-late 30's for possibly 50-60% more $ than what Tage is getting. And Levi also? He might be good, but he hasn't shown me anything yet that would make me think at the NHL level he's better than anyone else they currently have.

Buffalo is already near the top of man games lost to injury https://nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com/2025/10/202526-NHL-man-games-lost-plots.html (and that is before these latest 2)

I agree. I haven't really found any definitive metrics of what counts as a high danger chance vs a scoring chance vs a shot.

I know it's early but I actually don't really see much. I watched the last couple of games and he just doesn't seem that noticeable to me. And as far as him making good plays with the puck? I guess so. I don't see a lot of bad stuff. But again I don't see him doing things that any defenseman should not be doing.

I kind of agree with what you're saying in the large picture. I never understood the signs on the front lawn. I can't imagine not knowing who I'm going to vote for and then seeing a sign on the front lawn that tells me to vote...that got me thinking... "You know what? That random person who I don't know likes that candidate so that must be the one I'm going to go with!" I guess the theory I heard is the more signs on the lawn seems to drum up identification or a groundswell of support for a certain candidate. But still... I don't understand how that actually changes someone's mind... Or get someone to vote for them when they weren't going to vote at all. It's just more sign pollution... And general pollution when they go flying all over the place on a windy day.

I didn't look up the stats first and then draw a conclusion.. I did it the other way around. When I watch the PK, I don't really notice that much different than last year. Yes, they've had a game or two where they've looked really good but they did last year. Also. Overall when you considered the whole season I don't see much difference in them positionally. Basically when they maintain their positioning and don't chase the puck they're very good. Once they start going to the boards that's when they get bad. But that was the same both last year and this year. So I know the goaltending has been better but when I looked up the numbers in the initial post that's what surprised me... Just how much better it was on the penalty kill. And for everyone saying that the penalty kill is a lot better... My initial eye test doesn't really notice that and the numbers don't really notice that also. High danger chances are legitimate scoring chances from in front and close to the net. Scoring chances don't have to be an official shot on goal but they also have to do with not just shots but legitimate chances to score. The team is giving up just as many of those if not more than last year. Of course it is early... Both for their overall effectiveness and the deep dive into the analytics. Another 10 to 15 games and we should have a clearer picture.

Why is the PK so much better this year? Except for one single aspect, its not. Last year (per 2 minutes PK 4 on 5): -1.68 shots allowed, 0.24 expected goals allowed, 1.70 scoring chances allowed, 0.71 high danger chances allowed. This year (per 2 minutes PK): -1.86 shots allowed, 0.28 expected goals allowed, 2.05 scoring chances allowed, 0.80 high danger chances allowed. So far per PK, this years PK is allowing more shots, more 'expected goals', more 'scoring chances' and more 'high danger chances' (better quality shots from the prime scoring areas. In every metric that can be measured, the PK is kinda the same as last year, but slightly worse in all those areas. Why are they the top rated PK then? The goalies. Last year: .830 saves percentage short handed This year: .943 save percentage short handed. So again, the PK "looks" better this year but the numbers show the skaters aren't really playing much different. They are allowing the same (or more) number of shots. Same (or more) shots from the prime scoring areas. What we think of as 'good PK' is really just the goalies making a lot more saves than last year. The good news...the goalies ARE better than last year on the PK. The bad news....its is unlikely their PK save percentage is going to stay at .943 https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?season=20242025&team=BUF&stype=2 https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=BUF https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL