mjd1001

When Cozens scored 31 goals it still wasn't a good season overall. Mcleod is on Pace for about 10 goals less. But he's a positive player. Cozens wasn't. McLeods underlying metrics are good, Cozens underlying metrics were not. When people join McLeod's line, Their underlying metrics get better, it was the opposite with Cozens. Cozens had 31 goals, but almost everything else about that season was not a good season, his overall play and his numbers did back it up show it was actually a below average season. A huge myth that many Sabres fans have led themselves to believe was Cozens actually had a good season, it really wasn't. That is not the case with McLeod this year. His season is 'solid' across the board in all aspects of play. Cozens has never had a season like that.

I don't really know what to expect out of him. I think he's basically on a tryout to see if he fits on the roster next year.

Overall I think he is good enough to get 2C minutes. Now his production...what do you want from a 2C? If you want 25-30 goals and 60+ points, he might not get you that. But I think you are looking for overall play. He certainly does give your some scoring, so to me, yeah, I'll take the 15-20 goals and 40-45 points out of him (hes pacing for more this year), but I'll take that kind of prodution out of a player like him. I've been saying that all year long, even when he was only getting 12-14 minutes per game and I thought he should have a lot more. When you say #2C, are you comfortable with him getting 17+ minutes of ice time per night? Because THAT is what a #2 center gets (give or take a minute). Yep. I don't want him getting much less than that. If you don't think he's a #2C, the question is how many minutes do you want him playing? He is a 2 way guy, he's a plus player on a minus team, he is pacing now for 20+ goals and those 50 points. Can he do it again? Maybe, maybe not, but he is now. He IS a center. So how many minutes do you want him to play? Do you want to limit him to 12-14 minutes per game like he was getting earlier in the year? If you only want him playing that few of minutes, then he's your #3 guy and not on special teams. If you want him playing more minutes, then that is a #2 guy.

McLeod has been getting over 20 minutes of ice time the last 5 games in a row, with a couple games approaching 23 minutes. His ice time has been increasing quite a bit since January: 16:01 in October 15:30 in November 14:38 in December 16:52 in January 18:53 in February 19:21 in March He's on a 21 goal, 31 assist, 52 point, +11 pace. Had he been given more ice time earlier in the year instead of Cozens, McLeods numbers would likely be even a bit better.

And that is with them having 2 powerplays also? Some teams can get 4 shots on a single powerplay, sometimes in the first minute.

Being outshot 18-4. At least their shooting percentage is good, right?

I was kinda hoping it was more of a performance issue accountability. Like, Quinn doesn't bring anything except for goal scoring, Yet his last goal was 13 games ago, and he has 1 goal in his last 21. Or he hasn't been a plus in +/- for 11 games. -11 in his last nine games. And, if he DID miss a meeting, how the heck do you miss a meeting when your play is what I just listed above?

I think he has the talent to be an NHL goaltender. I think this year he is having a really bad year. There are some that are saying he is being hung out by the team in front of him. There is SOME truth to that, but there are way too many times he needs to be making more saves. Every goal is not black and white....there are some goals that even the best goalie in the world is not going to make a save on everytime....but they will make saves on them 50-60% of the time. UPL is making saves on seemingly 25% of those. I don't need him to make every save when a quality NHL shooter is one on one with him, but he certainly needs to make more than he currently is. Goaltending, in particular UPL, to me is the 2nd biggest reason for this team being as low as they are in the standings (Behind the collective early/mid season play of Cozens/Quinn, and just ahead of the utter failure of the 4th line giving up so many goals when their only job is to NOT give up goals.) I'm don't want him jettisoned from the team yet, but he needs to be better next year.

It was a pretty bad game all around for the forward lines. I looked up the numbers that were just released (and yes, these are just numbers, without knowing zone starts, who was matched up against, who, etc) -Best forward line was Benson/Krebs/Malenstyn (when he played with them). Positive Corsi, Positive Fenwick. They took 3 shots and allowed none against. -Lafferty/Kozak/Malenstyn (Malenstyn split between 2 lines), was 2nd best as far as the numbers go. Corsi, Fenwick, Scoring chances, shots...pretty much even for vs against. -Greenway/Zucker/Tuch (I'm not sure who played center there, but they were on the ice together for over 8 minutes) and McLeod, Thompson, Peterka were pretty much negative across the board. (McLeod's positioning was pretty bad on that first goal, the goal scorer in the slot was his guy, he drifted to the side of the net where 2 defenders were already there. That one is on McLeod, not the D-men, but it hurts the D-mens numbers). Individually, Lafferty, Power, Malenstyn, and Byram, Kozak and Zucker were all well into the positive territory in xgf vs against. Almost everyone else was negative, with Bryson, Clifton, Samuelsson, Tuch, Dahlin, Peterka, and Mcleod being at the bottom of the list. Again, just numbers...https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20242025&game=21106 Again, UPL didn't help the team. The 2nd goal was him being 'leaky' and the 3rd goal...well, he was screened really bad but at the same time he got beat cleanly. I can't say its his fault, but I want him, at this point in his career, to start to find ways of tracking the puck better so he can make a few more saves on those screened shots.

Except Vanacek had better save percentage/numbers in the 2 years under Ruff in New Jesey compared to what he has done since then. Niemi and Lehtonen where his 2 goalies most used in Dallas and they were about the same, or slightly worse after Ruff left. I'm not saying Ruff may have a more complicated, or worse system for D-men to master and that it may or may not hurt goalies. The overall numbers for many goalies, especially in NJ are a bit worse under Ruff, But saying every starting goalie under him has down years..just not true.

The 4th line this year has been awful. At least in terms of production and goals allowed. As much as people complained about Girgensons and Okposo, for the last few years they were even, sometimes a bit positive, sometimes a bit negative. But this 4th line has been bad. Lafftert, Malenstyn and whoever else is with them on a line are a -18 goal differential through this part of the season...on pace for about a -25 goal differential for the season. The 4th line the last 2 years COMBINED is about a -5 goal differential. The Cozens line (usually with Quinn) has always been an issue also. We have gone over it on this board before, Every single forward has better numbers without Cozens than with, even when you take a deep dive into analytics like Corsi, Fenwick, shots allowed, scoring chances, expected goals, etc. But just this year, Cozens, Quinn, or when the 2 of them together, they are/were a collective -22 goal differential. When Tuch, Thompson, or both are on the ice, the team is a collective +14 in goal differential (not counting PP, even strength only) McLeod's line (various teammates) is a +4. So yeah....as far as forwards go, the 4th line and the Cozens/Quinn lines have sunk this team. Tage, Tuch, and the Mcleod lines (with various teamates) are a +18 combined in goal differential. The 4th line and Cozens/Quinn combined for a -47. In terms of D-men, Dahlin carries everyone he is with. He's probably best with Byram, but not as drastically as many think. When Bryam is on the ice without Dahlin, the teams goal differential is -11. Clifton without Dahlin -6. Bryson without Dahline -3. Samuelsson without Dahlin -1, Power without Dahlin -9. Of all the D-men, Jokiharju has the best deep analytics and the best goal differntial with or without Dahlin. He was positive with Dahlin, positive without Dahlin, and his deeper stats like Fenwich, x goals, corsi were positive with Dahlin and close to even without him. Of course...these numbers alone do not prove who is good and who is bad, but they are a starting point. And while not proof alone, they do tend to 'verify' what many of us see with out eyes when we watch the games.

Not really a disconnect at all. Dahlin is close to a supertar level D-man no matter who he plays with. The rest of the pairings, which account for 55%-65% of the ice time, are below average. And the forwards. Tuch and Thompson anchor a top line that is also one of the best in the league (there was a discussion about that last week I think). The 2nd line (or the 3rd...whichever one McLeod isn't on) and the 4th lines have performed near the bottom of the league. Add to that well below league average goaltending metrics, and there you go. Great first pair D-man with a very good-to-great first line. McLeods anchors a 'decent' line whatever he is on.....The other 2 forwards lines have been bad and the rest of the Defense is below average or even worse.

Yeah. According to the 'fancy stats', Dahlin makes everyone better (including Bryam). Bryam does not make Dahlin better, nor does Bryam make anyone else better. For those who care about the deep dive numbers, Dahlin and Byram over the past 2 seasons playing together have a +3% relative corsi, +4% relative Fenwick, +6% relative shots for vs against, +12.7% relative goals for vs against, and a +1% relative scoring chances for vs against. But ANYONE playing with Dahlin has that. If you look at everyone else combined with Dahlin besides Byram, +5% relative corsi, +5% relative Fenwisk, +5.5% relative shots for vs against, -2% goals for vs against, +3.5% relative scoring chances for vs against. As far as everyone else playing with Bryam without Dahlin (Bryam as the lead-guy on the pair): -4% relative corsi, -4.5% relative Fenwick, -4% relative shots for vs against, -3% relative goals for vs against, and -7% scoring chances for vs against. So, Byram with Dahlin has a much better relative goals for, a slightly better relative shots for....but is actually worse in terms of Corsi, Fenwick, and scoring chances. Looks like it kinda 'evens out' to me. To me the eye test Dahlin makes everyone he plays with better. The deep numbers pretty much say that also, and that him paired with Bryam isn't really much better than him paired with anyone else.

It appears picks 1-4 are a step up from anyone in the draft. Then after that, 5-8 are close and then another step down. You certainly want 1-4 in this draft, but they aren't 4 superstart level players. If we are worried bout a draft pick, I'd WANT top 4, but just don't fall past pick #8.

Going to the supermarket. I normally use the self checkout, but when I have a coupons or vouchers for something free, I'll go the express line. So, approaching the express line from one direction, making eye contact with the 'little old lady' coming from the other direction. She is going to get there before me, she probably moves faster than she has in the last 20 years to get there. Then once she gets there, she has more than the 12 items they allow. She pulls them out of the cart as slow as possible. Talks to the cashier when she is scanning. Seemingly every other item asks to make sure she is getting the right price (Are those bananas really that expensive?) Then when the girl is done checking her out and tells here the amount....she brings her purse up on the little ledge, unzips it, starts digging through it...pulls out a wallet...opens the wallet....asks the cashier again how much it is....then opens the wallet and pulls out cash...then opens up the change purse...starts counting out dimes, nickels, and pennies...gives the money to the cashier....the cashier tells her she didn't give her the right amount....so the little old lady asks again ( for the 3rd or 4th time what the amount is), after hearing it there is 5 seconds of silence, she then counts out the correct amount of change. The cashier gives her the receipt..but the little old lady doesn't move so my order of 4 things can start, she stares at the receipt....asking another question about it, questions the price of something AFTER she has finished the checkout (if there is a mistake at this point, please move along to the customer service desk the cashier cannot help you with it)....then proceeds to again not get out of the way...puts her purse back up on the ledge, carefully folds the receipt...places it in some deep dark area of her purse that takes here 20 seconds to find....and then FINALLY moves along. So yeah, make SURE you get to that checkout line before me....heaven forbid you have to wait an extra 30-45 seconds for me to complete my entire transaction.....but once you get there first, make sure you show you have NO CONCERN at all for anyone other than yourself while I wait 5-10 minutes for you to buy your veggies, candy bars, and 5 different types of cat treats. Then on the way out, 1 spot away from me the retired-looking guy thinks his pickup truck is so important and so valuable that he parks it sideways across 3 spots, seeing him get out notice a spot on it and starts rubbing it with his thumb to make sure not only does everyone notice how wonderful and special his pickup truck it, but he has to make sure no one see is with even a spec of dirt on it. Its frustrating how a simple trip the the grocery store can get me frustrated with other people so much.

If you took out that one game vs detroit and pretended it didn't exist, they'd still be 5th in terms of PIM per game. Take out the last 3 and they are still 5th in PIM per game. I didn't realize they were ranked that highly though. The most interesting is in how many misconducts they have, amost double the 2nd place team. Sabres with 12 misconducts....Chicago and Winnipeg tied for 2nd with 7 each. There are 5 teams that have none...and 19 of the 32 teams have 2 or less.

The tought of Tavares enterered my mind but I didn't think much of him. He would be 'interesting'. He was never really fast, but when I watch him now, well, he just doesn't play a fast game. But his skills are still mostly there. I would not be upset with a 3 year deal, no longer. The problem is, there are probabably teams that want him and can offer more of a recent history of winning/being a contender that would do the same. The Sabres don't have a ton of cap space like they did in the past, but they aren't up against the cap (yet) either. Maybe you offer him $1-$2m more per year on a 3 year deal than anyone else...and see if he bites? Its tough, he is going to be 35 when next season starts...and about 1200 games played.

Providing they don't do the near-impossible and make the playoffs...... The team plays well, about .500 hockey while outscoring their opponents along the way. They would be even better except for a few awful calls by the refs and some minor injury issues along the way, but the team looks really good and plays well overall. But, Nashville, Seattle, Philly and Pittsburgh play just well enough that the Sabres finishin 3rd last, assuring them of a top 4 pick. Tuch gets to 30. Tage gets to 45, maybe gets hot and has a look at 50.

I agree with you. I hardly ever watch a game, especially a high scoring game or a win and think "That game was OK but it really needed a few fights." Since fighting is still part of the game, I do wish the Sabres had someone a bit better at it as more of a way to deter it though.

He is not a difference maker, but Krebs is one of the biggest surprises (positive) for me this year. He looks like a useful NHL player for the team. Last year, I think I complained about his play more than Cozens, and that is saying a lot. I didn't want him signed in the offseason, and if it was I was hoping it would be a one year deal for the minimum. Again, he's not 'great', but I was wrong about how I felt about him coming into the year.

I'd imagine if he was traded, the most likely/logical trade would be for a very good future (1st rounder, mid-to-high prospect) and an overpriced-but-still-decent veteran that another team wants to move on from because they have cap issues worse than what the Sabres face (even with a Peterka Extension) or a team desperate to get younger but not wanting to wait 2-3 years for a first round pick to develop. yeah, I know, that is a really narrow window.

I'm assuming those are in order (first line on the top, 2nd below, etc.) The only thing I would change is I would swap Stutzle for Jack Hughes. Hughes has terrible luck with injuries, but when he is healthy, and I know that hasn't been a lot recently, he is a superstar-level player.

I thought 3 of the 4 forward lines were pretty good. The Krebs-Murray-Quinn line was abit 'iffy', but not terrible. Krebs was noticable at least. McLeod continues to just play really really consistent.

That last goal looked to be a result of a messy line change. It looked at one point the Sabres had a bunch of guys on the ice not too far from the bench. Bad timing / reaction on that change. I know some were in the process of changing so they don't call the stuff, but at one point, there were the 2 goalies, 7 Bruin skaters and 9 Sabres players with their skates on the ice at the same time. Even though it wasn't near the puck, Sabres should have been called. This visualizer shows that 6 guys were on the ice at least 15 feet from the bench, and the actual replay confirms that.

Krebs Quinn and Benson givith, Krebs, Quinn, and Benson taketh away. Edit, it looks like Benson wasn't out there for the first goal allowed, but the other 2 were.