Randall Flagg

I didn't read to see how they came to that conclusion, but I bet they lean on data that was generated back when we had like 15 different players on terrible teams the past couple years. Or the sentiment that our half-decade as the NHL's Cleveland Browns has burned into peoples brains. It's gonna take a while to scrub that out.

Weird things: Buffalo Sabres centers: Jack Eichel, Casey Mittelstadt, Sobotka, Berglund, Larsson, Girgensons have all played some center. I would guess that Eich, Mitts, Vlad, Berglund, and Larsson are the guys who have actually played the most time at the position, so I'll use those guys. They've combined for 13 goals, 28 assists. If you include ERod, you add 6 assists and no goals. Zemgus: 1 goal, 4 assists. So 7 players are averaging 2 goals and 5.5 assists, which would project to 8 goals and 21 assists for an average Buffalo Sabre center. Buffalo Sabres wingers: Of the names not mentioned so far, 37 goals and 42 assists. That's roughly 6 goals and 7 assists so far per winger. Considering that two assists are often awarded for every goal, that is a decidedly slanted stat line in favor of goals. It would project to 23 goals and 27 assists for the average Sabre winger. (Our depth wingers are much better offensively than our depth centers, hence the point total discrepancy). I think this is systemic, and contributes to things like Jack's shooting percentage. I still don't have a good handle on this, but Phil's centers are expected to be tremendously responsible defensively. They are always the first ones back when possession changes in the offensive zone, and play the defensive side of the NZ like a third defenseman. Jack, Casey etc. are often behind the net in the defensive zone, and appear to have fairly complicated coverage instructions. I guess this is all pretty normal. They're also most often the furthest-back safety valve for when our D recover the puck. It's a lot of ground to cover, and as a result they tend to stay pretty high in the offensive zone, which is the thing I've noticed the most as being different from a team like Toronto, who has three goal scoring centers and a bunch of silky playmakers on the wing. Almost any Jack and Casey play I can picture this season comes from the high slot, and rather high on the boards. Occasionally they get behind the net, but that seems to happen most when they're the second or first forechecker in, which is common in line-change scenarios. An example of this is when Jack forced the Hornqvist turnover that skinner got back to Bogo for goal 2 on Monday. When things are fully established, though, unless it's a gritty 4th line cycle, our centers make plays from up high. Naturally, the shots taken from those regions create rebounds more than goals, and our wingers are dutifully positioned near the net with a frequency we haven't seen in years this season. And I think this helps explain the goal scoring discrepancy. It goes further for Jack specifically. Remember his rookie year, when almost all of his goals were highlight reel variety rushes and snipes? We made a point last year to talk at great length about how Jack's goals were a result of getting to the dirty areas, which represented a change from the days of Yeichel. His linemate Kane was a rush-specialist, and generally took long shots and worked the boards when the play was established in the offensive zone, and so Jack was free to hit the crease frequently. For examples, check out his goals early in the season - on long island in game 2, in LA, at Toronto later on. Dirty, gritty goals. We remarked that he's scoring the way Matthews does, and it worked because of his most common winger's tendencies. Pominville could go to the net too, but it's fine to have two players go to the net. This year, though, Pommers and Skinner have staked their claim of that area. And they're scoring like fiends doing it. Jack sees this and as a result isn't burying his head and driving the goal - that wouldn't be smart. He's using his skills to get the puck to those guys there. Like, all of Jason and Jeff's goals are a direct result of this sequence of events. It works, Jack sees it, Jack will keep doing it. As a result, he's further away than normal, and fewer shots are going in (though less than eventually will, he's also a bit snakebitten). If he were to start jamming the crease with those three, then our offense would die, because there would be acres of open ice and no Sabre to get pucks that go there. Furthermore, so many teams are quick in transition, that when three forwards get caught down low and the puck doesn't bounce right, it goes the other way and Pittsburgh gets about three of their goals that way. My dad shouted at the TV the second all three Sabres on (I think) the Casey line were below circles, because the puck skipped to a Pens defender and we got scored on 5 seconds later. You could see it coming, and that's why in general the plan is to keep the guy Phil wants being the most defensively responsible up high near the defensemen. And since he likes offensive zone play to incorporate the D, the center up there is a useful distribution center. So I think that Phil's schemes value playmaking, thinking, and watching from Center, and prefer to lean on the wings for the heavy goal scoring. That is reasonable given our roster structure. And I think that will contribute to suppressed goal totals and inflated assist totals for our centers going forward, which is fine by me. I also think that Jack's current line, which is excelling, will continue to keep Jack away from the dirty areas which will lower his goal total but help improve their two way play in letting him get back quickly (he had a brilliant crease clear late in Pittsburgh that was attributed to Skinner), helping mitigate the line's potential for defensive woes, and will utilize his playmaking heavily as it has been.

We've never seen 71-22-28 together, but Rodrigues is getting 25-75 offensive-defensive splits and performs well offensively despite that. He doesn't cycle like Berglund, but he can be a key piece to collect the puck off the boards from those two and get it somewhere spicy. It can work for now, though of course when Berglund is healthy we need to go back to the beloved checking line, and find someplace else for Erod (Tage's spot continues to catch my eye, as that 71-17-23 generated 2 goals and about 50 chances the last game they were together).

That Trocheck injury looked so much like Jack's falls for each of his sprains. I pray to the hockey gods for continued good health of our captain.

Goodness gracious. I hope the worst stays behind you.

I believe you're onto something here. I also think it's worth it for the ES improvement in tight spaces. It's about time we focus on that part of our play, rather than going nowhere with a ridiculous peeper like in 16-17! That game was epic. I was so pissed at the ref when Bogosian was tripped. I actually loved that Phil made the challenge. I'm pretty sure he did it to make the refs stare at what they did, I don't think it had anything to do with the goalie "interference" and I think that's badass. Don't correct me if I'm wrong. Scandella has this really freaking weird thing about violently slashing people and it needs to stop. I think that's the third time I've seen him do it in the season and a quarter he's been here. I really like @Doohickie's take about Pominville. He was really sluggish for a week and a half before the Minnesota game or so. Got spelled with light minutes in the bottom six for a while, and had his legs back the last two games now. If we have a formula for continuing to keep him fresh then we're in a good spot. This GDT got kinda ugly towards the end. I'm glad I didn't have internet during the game. It's possible to both acknowledge that Ristolainen had a good game and that single games, weeks, or even months aren't going to change opinions built on five years of hockey, just like good periods don't change opinions on players with 20 games of sample size. People will change their takes over time as the hockey changes, whatever those takes may be, and patience should be exercised for all opinions out there. I saw the "Risto is bad at hockey" take get dismissed as "weak" somewhere - I'm sad that I spent a good 3 hours a few weeks ago making a post on the topic that was never addressed by said poster. I guess that was too weak of me to even be acknowledged. Dahlin was crummy through two and it didn't really matter because we have put ourselves in the position that we aren't depending on 18 year olds. This is the single best thing about this season, because of what it will lead to for the next 15. Those moves he pulled in the third, with the confidence to just keep playing even after those first two periods...mother of god Hutton's a quirky goalie like they all are. I honestly didn't like his postgame interview. However, IDGAF about postgame interviews, they're meaningless. He was outstanding. Kyle Okposo's shift on the tying goal was, by far, the best shift any Sabre has had this season. Phil's best work this year, and the theme of the season, is that very few players are playing in roles they aren't suited for. Having Kyle able to work on getting his game back without needing 50 ES goals from him playing next to Jack has been crucial, and he's responded so well. Just like Larry and Zemgus have responded so well to their well-defined, well-suited jobs. Just forecheck and cycle until the Malkin line gets tired. It was brilliantly executed in this game. Phil got the shot suppressors out there against the Malkin line any chance he could. The only goal scored on them doesn't count, because it happened when another forward was stuck out there with 22/28 because of a lack of opportunity to change. That forward is the one that lost a battle which led directly to the goal being scored, a battle that would have been won by Berglund. They shut down the Malkin line. I hope Phil sees it and sticks with that line. It's the second most important line to this team's success. Phil instantly fixed the bottom six by remembering Reinhart-Sobotka is light years better than Sobotka-literally-anyone-else, and that 22-28-10 are defensive wizards. HUGE penalty kills helped us out bigtime. Another place where Vlad, Larry, Zemgus, Bergs thrive in their role. Speaking of metrics that worried @That Aud Smell, don't worry That Aud Smell. Our "metrics" are fine, there aren't any red flags. Goal production from Jeff/Jason dipping can easily be replaced by the fact that Jack&Sam, guys that would have combined for 55 last season with a full season from Jack, have just 5 non empty-netters. Of course a winning streak isn't sustainable hockey - the best teams in the league only win 5/8 of their games. If winning streaks were sustainable, there'd be 75-5-2 records in the NHL. The point isn't sustainability of these results, it's banking as many of these points as you can while things are hot so that you can cruise through the rough patches. It's all about banking points when you can. That's what matters. They're games against the two best rosters (IMO) in the league away from being comfortably in the top half of possession metrics. We should all relax and enjoy the wins. Our best hockey of the year came before the streak even started, and we didn't get luck in some of those games. Let's enjoy it while it's here! Speaking of Sam, if Sam can do to Tage what he does for Vlad, then we've solved the two things that give us "problematic"-looking metrics. Through 20 games the team was Tage-and-Vlad away from having zero forwards with a tendency of getting hemmed in a lot. Just like Sam with Vlad tilts the ice in our favor as the only combo with Vlad to do so, adding Tage didn't hurt the line, and obviously unlocked Tage's shot for just the 4th time in his 55 games. If that can become regular, then we have no more designated "getting dominated spending 75% of the time clenching our sphincters in the defensive zone" lines that plagued us in Winnipeg, Tampa, etc. I've stopped getting on Phil for playing Tage - if Jason is going to keep him up here (which continues to be the wrong move IMO, I'll need about 30 games of yesterday from Tage to erase the ~500th ranking stats and the eye test that those support that he's built up to this point) he needs to play if you don't want to screw up his development. If we find a line that doesn't get tanked with him on it like the rest do, then keep at it. If it falls apart, though, stahp. This team is at its best when it can focus on rolling 4 lines on a mission and capable, like they've done the last two third periods. There's no coincidence that the third in Minnesota, and the game yesterday, looked like different hockey teams from the one that played in Winnipeg. And, the fact that it is two depth players creating perceived metric issues, is a GOOD thing, considering that Jack was the one that liked to be hemmed in before last season. And more on the Phil & roles train: pi must be giddy with Jack and Jeff's plus minus. But pi probably understands that Jack and Jeff are, at best, questionable defensive hockey players. Why is it that these guys are thriving at ES? Well, we're taking our two best offensive players, with known defensive issues, and averaging 70% offensive zone starts between them. They're also coming on the ice after rolling 4 lines, particularly the 4th, that are tiring out the other team and maintaining possession, so when they change on the fly they have the puck and the momentum. Jack and Jeff resemble peak Patrick Kane in terms of our propensity to load prime minutes with those guys instead of using prime minutes to help dreadful depth survive, the story of the last two seasons. This was missing last year. Imagine taking Jeff Skinner, our second-best offensive piece, and giving him the most defensive zone starts of any forward to EVER play 1000 minutes? That artificially suppressed the ES production of our second best offensive piece of last season, for little gain with the goaltending we had behind them. A simple glance at his ES production now shows what balance and playing best players together can do. This is not an ROR point, it's a "roles matter as much if not more than the talent level" point. I'd also like to note that we spent 7 games trying to replace that exact ROR role this year with Sobotka. We were 3-4 and had 200 posters jump ship on the season during that stretch. It's no coincidence that after Vegas we dropped the role completely. There is no Sabre currently tasked with the shutdown 2C role we had last year, and I'm glad Phil realized that it wasn't conducive to scoring goals or doing anything particularly well. Phil is learning and is doing a good job with the players he has, and our biggest complaints are with guys that get 10-14 minutes of ice time, which is a very good thing. This is how Skinner can go from minus a billion to pacing for plus 60 or whatever he's pacing for. He didn't become a defensive phenom, but he is being MAXIMIZED. Maximizing the most important pieces on your roster is how you win with any roster, and Jack, Jeff, Jason, Kyle, almost Casey, 22-28-10, Bogosian, McCabe, Dahlin, Nelson/Beaulieu, and the goalies are all being beautifully purposed. I could say that about maybe 3 players on last year's team. Good things are happening and there are so many places to give credit for that. Dam son I should probs post during games and not after

Ugh, you're living my nightmare. Feel better. Any chance you've had romaine lettuce sometime in the last week?

It's not even like Carter Hutton is a Vezina candidate. This is what normal goaltending can do for you, and we finally have it again. The last four games would have been four dreary losses last season. That's not an indictment of the team's last four games, every team plays some bad games against elite opponents. But getting goaltending that has the ability to do what every other team's goaltending can do is huge. It's finally not a problem for now. And when goaltending isn't a problem, you can fix your attention to make improvements and tweaks elsewhere, and they'll be more meaningful.

Is Berglund hurt? We need our checking line intact.

I'm gonna be there. I'm gonna be loud. Can't wait. F*CK FILLY The exact kind of goalie that will beat you the second you think of him as any different from any other NHL goalie you'll face this year. Pretend he's prime Carey Price and go to work.

I'm glad Rasmus is bad at that dreadful game.

Whoever Greg Wyshynski is, he is guilty of having a very bad hockey take. I believe four Atlantic teams would be first place in the Pacific, and the 3rd place Pacific team is on pace to finish with 82 points.

Imagine if Jack and Sam could get back to their regular goal scoring rates?

And it was great to see Phil move back to the fourth line I obnoxiously pine for, and even better to see them pick up where they left off. Stick with this, and there's not even any reason to think we won't stay really good. That's what this team looks like right now. Like, aside from b*tching about our least important lines, there's nothing that screams "this will soon end" especially if the coach just moved back to the good depth combination.

Here are things that are true: Rodrigues is a top five forward on this team in points per minute, despite getting the third worst defense/offense splits on the team (21% ozone starts, 89% dzone starts). Rodrigues has no goals despite that. Tage Thompson also has no goals, but only one assist in 13 games. Rodrigues has six times the production. Tage is also, by literally any metric (and my eye test well before I decided to check) a bottom 10 forward in the entire NHL, a sample size of nearly 500 with non-negligible minutes. Rodrigues' assists were all pivotal plays on the goals scored by our depth players. Think back to the fourth goal in the Vegas game at home, the two in Montreal. Fans have been moaning about our bottom six choices, and the counter has been "but they're winning so obviously something is there." That is no reason to just close our eyes and assume we can't parse things a little better than that. Rodrigues, in the most recent assists described, is the last time we had any goals out of our bottom six. They were plays created by him. In the four games since then, two of which he was scratched in, and the other two in which he was a part of the tank-metric lines we've gotten since Phil blew up 22-28-10, our bottom six has zero goals, zero assists, and plenty of minuses, including TWO direct assists for the other team by said Tage Thompson. It's possible that we are both winning AND need to do something about this, considering that statistically our wins have been 100% driven by Carter Hutton, Linus Ullmark, and guys in the top six like Eichel and Kyle (the consensus I'm going on here is that Jack and Casey's lines are our "top sixers" - it's the other lines that need adjustment. And don't forget about Dahlin today, of course, but he isn't a bottom six skater either). Thus, we are winning DESPITE the bottom six, and people can clearly see that, which is why they're commenting on it despite the now expected accusations of complaining and being negative. We know how important good play from the bottom six is - getting your offensive guys out after they're done wearing down opposing defenses, even if they dont' score, is huge. You don't need to get the puck and momentum back, you already have it and can finish the job. The lack of this over the years is as big a reason we were so bad as any. We had it for about ten games with 10-22-28. They didn't allow goals, they didn't allow shots, and they held the puck for 60% of the time they were on the ice. Even in the "bad game" Phil broke them up in (of course they're going to struggle against the fastest team in the league, they're slower. But not every team is the fastest in the league) they were PIVOTAL in the third, with two huge shifts late that almost had Jack and Jeff winning it on the same possession two different times. Fans want this back. Since we blew those up, our bottom two lines are hovering between 19% and 35% shot shares and we're winning despite having to "survive" their shifts when it so clearly doesn't have to be that way. Yes, they're winning, but they're winning because of everything else, despite this thorn in their side, and they're like two player decisions away from getting all of the good stuff AND having actual NHL play from their bottom six, which there is no eye test or statistical test in the world that can claim they've gotten in the last four games without looking like an utterly preposterous take. They have zero goals since the decisions we all hate, and they have tank metrics. They got absolutely peppered by Winnipeg, Tampa, Minnesota. Some of the worst defensive moments of this season come from those lines in those games, and they generated nothing remotely resembling offense. There is no defense of their play that can be taken seriously. It's been everyone else dragging them around and it literally doesn't have to be that way, because we just saw a ten game sample size of it NOT being that way. Believe it or not, a five game win streak doesn't mean everyone is perfect and a genius, that improvements can't be made, and that posters can't comment on these topics without being derided for it. Anyway, Jesus Christ this is amazing and I'm struggling to even comprehend our record, and I'm so happy for these guys and the board and I hope this can continue for as long as possible. I can't wait to cheer them on Wednesday.

Nailed it Brilliant, insightful

And people can say all they want about Rodrigues' "risky" plays, but Tage has directly assisted, like, would have recorded an assist, on two offensive zone decisions that lead to immediate goals against in his last three games. Like, handed teams goals on a platter from the offensive zone in two of the last three games. IMO, that's pretty 'risky.' Glad he apparently had a better third than the trainwreck of the first two periods. But this became comical a month ago I think this game shows exactly why both goaltending and player skill management through lineup choices matter so much, and I don't think it's being too negative to expect more from the only guy who's underperforming his own abilities in this organization right this moment, the guy behind the bench. Now fix the lines and beat the f*cking Wild for five wins in a row!!

Oh, and I'm not saying go out and trade all our picks and prospects. Far from it. But this team is 11-6-2. NHL team success is fleeting. Darcy didn't make any moves in 05-06 because that wasn't their contention window, that was going to open the NEXT season, they weren't ready yet. The only thing that wasn't ready for a cup that spring was the AHL defense they had to trot out because of that decision. All's I'm saying is, you can always help your team, and you can almost always help your team without harming the future in a significant way, and we might have a good hockey team buried somewhere in our lineup choices. And Skinner is 0-18 in the shootout since 2013, since people were talking about that

Only saw the first two periods, then I got to hang out with my girlfriend for the first time in 4.5 months. Those two periods were worse than dozens and dozens of periods that were played by last year's Sabres. So were some of the Tampa ones. But this year's Sabres have goaltending, and when they get that goaltending, their work and effort and talent can find a way to pull through. It's the one position that can drag teams up and down the standings. And until we (apparently randomly luck back into) lines that make guys like Berglund and Pominville 60% shot share guys instead of below 25% (yes Winnipeg is a great team, but there are iterations of this current roster that wouldn't have played as badly as the mindless nonsense we put together culminating so beautifully in Berglund's PP1 penalty, Tage's secondary assist on WPG's goal, and then the revival in the 3rd), it's going to apparently keep saving our bacon. Those are two dreary losses last season that didn't turn out that way this season solely because of the best single offseason move we made - the one that fixed the goaltending. (Skinner, of course, is 1b.) And if you read GDTs from good Sabres teams early on in 2005, they read a lot like this one. Frustration in the coaches, in the players, but damned if they didn't figure out how to get the thing that mattered. And they played OUTSTANDING hockey for a ten game stretch before the last three or four - if they're finding wins and jumping to 11-6-2 playing like they did today, they're setting themselves up so, so well for when they can get that hockey back again (hint to Phil - 71-10-29 isn't the missing link you're looking for, you already had the best lines we can make right now and had them for a good string of games there, goooooo baaaaaaaaack). The Sabres would have to lose five straight games in regulation to get back to NHL .500. What on earth

And it's not like these decisions are important enough to win and lose games on their own. Very few coaching decisions are. That doesn't mean I don't want Phil giving these guys the best chance to win every night. I don't feel he's been doing that since, for no reason, he blew up the best fourth line we've had, watched the decision absolutely crater our bottom six while getting lucky with sterling goalie performances and a comeback from guys that have NOTHING to do with the bottom six, and is scratching random players while missing the worst of the regular top six skaters in his pecking order. Just be better Phil. The players are. You have to be too. Especially because he's citing shots and scoring chances in his interview. Phil, the decisions you are making fly in the FACE of those metrics. Read a f*cking book dude.

I would laugh at this, but I've learned what racing minds can do to your ability to function at basic things the hard way the last year and a half. Not sure we can really glean evidence of something like that just from watching interviews though.

First of all, just looooooove Tre. Second of all, this team is doing lots of fun stuff. They're serious and play hard on the ice, and have fun and are doing neat little things like this to a degree that I don't even recognize the franchise anymore. @That Aud Smell alluded to exciting feelings in the Rochester thread. I'm getting them too.

I'm not convinced he's taking any different shots from any other year. I've seen him hit a lot of pipes, and give a lot of his prime chances to Skinner who puts them in instead. I want him hitting 30 goals, much less 20, but if the two players combined are at 60, who cares how it's split up?

The bottom line there isn't ERod, it's Sobotka. Sobotka has never posted above 35% shot shares without Reinhart. Every line without Reinhart he's been on has posted tank metrics. Similarly, every line that ERod has been on, except for the line with-Sobotka-without-Reinhart, has been good and dangerous and ice-tilting. Phil doesn't know why things work when they work, if they aren't as obvious as Jack&Jeff averaging two goals between them.

If you have a carousel in the bottom six for competition purposes, fine. Don't include a top 6 offensive and defensive player as one of the most-often-scratched, though, and don't leave your worst regular forward, Sobotka, out of the cycle entirely. Jesus.