Randall Flagg

Idk guys, the last playoff appearance from this franchise came just a couple months before I discovered this site for the first time. It is more likely that I am a curse.

Given what I've briefly seen about the data that xGF% is scraped & compiled from, it would be theoretically possible to incorporate this in the stat. Each shot is catologed with the type, skater who took it, and geographic coordinates, among other things. You could scan every game to find all shots Crosby has taken within a reasonable diameter of that location (5 feet?), use HIS shooting percentage historically from that region (weighted average of some sort) in your team's xGA calculation from the game when he takes a shot there, and do that for each player that takes a shot against you, keeping an updated database on that player's mesh grid of career shooting percentages (rolling 5 year average might be good). Default to league average if some threshold for shot quantity in the region isn't met. Just imagining how I'd go about doing that as a novice with data/statistics is dizzying, but I don't see why it wouldn't be possible to do.

We gave Tage a three year deal? WTF? I assume Ralph played a role in this?

Eichel, Miller, prospect, pick for Zegras, Drysdale, Gibson Hall, Montour for ammo at the deadline Give Danault money Dump Eakin, and while I love Kyle, this kind of play sticking around the lineup, let alone leading the team in ES ice time, is emblematic of a portion of our issues Pick one or two of Rieder, Lazar, Zemgus to keep around See if anyone wants Jokiharju Throw money at David Savard Get another NHL center through mid-level trade or UFA (I'll use Haula as an example, no idea if he's still good) Sign a competent 4C, a Bellemare/Laughton type Ammo of some sort for good a good middle 6 player or two. Pretend you can get Copp out of Winnipeg, even though I know you can't, he's just a guy I've always liked. Pretend the other one is Iafallo, or Blake Coleman for grit, or Miles Wood or something. Olofsson - Danault - Reinhart Coleman - Haula - Cozens Skinner - Zegras - Copp Girgensons - Laughton - Lazar McCabe - Ristolainen Dahlin - Borgen (what a treat this guy is) Drysdale - Savard (not sure if he's still good, but I love this guy as a steady defenseman) Gibson Ullmark I have no idea if this team wins a lot of games or not in 2021/22, but it's a team whose window is firmly shaped around Dahlin, Cozens, maybe Quinn, Zegras, Drysdale. It has veterans in Danault, Reinhart, Coleman, Haula, Copp, laughton, Zemgus, Savard, McCabe, and Risto, (those last two really seemed to have taken a leap into true NHL veteran status), and most importantly, they have a goalie that will not hamper their efforts to take meaningful leaps in the standings - in fact, they have a goalie that can push the pace a bit and even be ahead of the curve that the young core might naturally take. Coleman, Copp or equivalent, Laughton are downright physical, Risto, Borgen, Savard can have that presence as well, and Danault and Haula and Laughton are strong centers in the defensive zone, unless they have changed since I last paid attention. The names are all placeholders though - the point is, that is a completely different team, and a fresh restart like that is entirely possible if they really want to do it. Would you turn on the TV to watch this group, coached by Bruce Boudreau or Gerard Gallant? A center gets injured? No problem, Cozens is really striving and can use the reps, and Copp can play C as well. Lazar can too if it's Laughton out. And the better Cozens and Zegras get, the better the unit looks. This is all playacting but we really have a chance to have some fun with this stuff if they break through their shell of timid, deferential, meek, spineless, over-patient operation

The state of dudacek is always an incredibly insightful and meaningful barometer. For much of the last 6 years, Jack Eichel was more central to my sports fanhood than the Buffalo Sabres franchise. It felt like if he ever left, I'd follow him with as much interest as I would my own team. I thought I'd die before coming around to this line of thinking. I still think Jack Eichel is far more a victim than a perpetrator of the ***** we slog through today. Had he been drafted by the Boston Bruins, with a stable and accomplished leadership core and management, he'd be a staple face of the league, and he can still become one. A guy who is one of the first three names mentioned by casual sports fans when asked what they know about the NHL. We have passed my own internal threshold of doubt that this can happen in Buffalo, as well. I am resigned to this outcome, and I am almost eagerly anticipating it. With the condition that the new chapter is really a new chapter. Adams, gone. Ralph, gone. Eichel, gone. Miller, Montour, Staal, Hall, Okposo, maybe one of Risto/McCabe (I like these guys now), Hutton, Jokiharju, every single one of these guys out the door. Sam can go for the right price, but my gut feels stronger about Sam's game the more time goes on. The first two in this list are important. I'm not sure who is available, who a new GM should be. What I do know is that Bruce Boudreau, Claude Julien, and Gerard Gallant are available coaches. I know that Barry Trotz, Peter Laviolette, and more were available at times during which the Sabres preferred to hang onto Phil Housley and Ralph Krueger. And yes, I know we tried the Bylsma route and it didn't work. 2 unestablished coaches in a row is enough to come back to trying out experience again. Make sure one of these guys ends up coaching your new team. Enough letting real names slip by to hang onto your previous funky choices. But do not operate on your roster complacently, as if you are confident that this will have a meaningful impact. Pretend you are getting league average, or even below league average, coaching, and build your roster with the frantic desperation that this possibility SHOULD induce. This attitude has been missing from so many previous offseasons. I don't mean desperation in a bad way - I mean the kind of desperation an expert in his field finds himself grinding through when he's on the clock with his dream and his reputation on the line, desperate passion, with the unmistakable genius that this kind of thing can produce. These are supposed to be the best hockey minds in the universe, behave like it. For three straight seasons, we have been one center injury away from 4C-4C-4C-AHL C as a center spine, or something similar. If I had a 3 year GM contract and found myself staring at that in year 1, I'd do everything I can to fix things right away, but I know that it takes two to tango and all of that. Despite this, there is a chasm between likely outcomes if genuinely appropriate attention is given to this problem for its size, and what we ended up doing. 2018: Mitts the rookie and Berglund/Sobotka should be fine right? 2019: it wasn't...we'll sign a 3LW and play him at 2C, and maybe Mitts is better. 2020: Ok...trade that 3LW for Eric Staal and sign Cody Eakin. Oh, and Cozens is at least on the roster, though we rightly don't really want him playing C yet. 2020 is the only year in that set that wasn't a downright revolting, pitiful, disgusting, and embarrassing effort right from the beginning, but in terms of the standards that we should be holding our franchise to, the 2020 attempts to address the center position are like the bare minimum of what should have been acceptable in that FIRST year post-ROR. and it took us 3 ***** years to build up to that point, and it turns out that Staal is worse than useless (seriously, what the ***** is up with this guy? Yeah, I guess he's old.) This glacier pace towards addressing a hole that was so obvious it had me melting down for the entirety of July, then August, then September, then October, then November, then December of 2018, is all you need to know about why we are where we are. The Buffalo Sabres have addressed all major problems they have created over the years with this exact 'strategy,' pace, and determination. Bizarre assumptions about what remains in the tank of their acquisitions and the roles they are filling, no desire to get creative or pay up to address the inevitable failings before, during, or after our hot starts turn into embarrassing finishes. Jack Eichel isn't a leader? That might be true. But what kind of leadership, direction, and example-setting is this from his bosses? The way you fix your center spine over 3 years is that you actually find a way to add an obvious 2C in one of those 3 offseasons. And just in case, you bring in several middle 6 Cs as well, such that should a Cozens or Mittelstadt ever develop, you can be shocked as if you've forgotten they even play that position, and rich in spoils. There is no reason that there shouldn't be 2 centers with worse ability than Jack but better ability than Staal in our organization right this second. No reason at all, given the resources the Pegulas have made available. This same conclusion can be made all over our roster, but especially in GOAL. I am still FLABBERGASTED that Carter Hutton made it onto LAST YEAR's roster given his meltdown the year before. Then last year, when our team was actually playing outstanding hockey and going into post-trade-deadline just a handful of points out? we score 5 goals on the road against Ottawa and still lose, because of Carter Hutton. Carter Hutton, who, after the team's second straight hot start to a season, decided to have an 11 game winless stretch, allowing 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4 goals, to sample a few of those games. Ullmark got hurt later on, as usual, and the team was forced to hit the ice knowing that THAT type of ability is what stands behind them for the most important stretch of their time as Buffalo Sabres. it went as predictably as imagined, because Jason and the Buffalo Sabres franchise are content to let unfathomably toxic and miserable situations fester for stupefying lengths of time. What does this kind of thing, year after year, do to the psyche of players? I think we're watching now exactly what it can do. When I say the reset has to be real, this is what I mean. The urgency and desperation we long to see on the ice will not be in place until the roster gets attacked and monitored with that same urgency and desperation. It is just so painful to watch people make such obvious mistakes over and over again. This franchise is as capable of changing as any once they look in the mirror and see this. If the Bills can climb to where they have from 2010, anyone can do anything. There's no reason this can't start now. It will require a type character that hasn't been seen in this building since Lindy hadn't started accruing fan opposition. I don't have answers for who can bring this, but I have plenty of ideas for things they can try as you're all too aware haha. If we're gonna do this, the return for Eichel is a really interesting discussion to have. My first instinct was to remember that Barkov was rumored to be leaning towards wanting a change of scenery. But FLA has a damn good record, I just checked. My ideal package would involve a real starting goalie and a worse 1C, but the reality is that despite the uniqueness of an Eichel-caliber player on the trade market, I think this move will have more young guys/prospects that will add up to a lesser value than I'd hope for. Could you add Jeff and send the group off to AZ or a team that is the opposite of cap strapped, like Seattle? Is depreciating Eichel's value with a bad contract attached the dumbest idea on planet earth? Probably. Maybe not. Zegras-Drysdale plus filler on whoever's side is intriguing - Eichel and what for Zegras, Drysdale and Gibson? LA has some pieces too. The Rangers get mentioned a lot, but what centers do they have? I would ask for Shestyorkin, Fox, and two good forwards, and I'd add on that for my initial request. Pastrnak or McAvoy as centerpieces? Bergeron is getting old and their center spine is ugly behind him. Either way, if Eichel goes, that desperate attack to build our center spine needs to be even more magnified this summer. What a mess this all is. But I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a sort of frenzied, maniacal, exciting aura around it all. Like dudacek says, what is there to lose, besides the perpetual 78 point mediocrity that seems to be the destiny of every iteration of the Buffalo Sabres that has existed in the post-tank paradigm? This would be a true fresh start, unlike any we've received since Terry got here.

There are no excuses for being bad at this point, but the Sabres were put in an unfortunate division. These teams know how to dismantle the Sabres, and have for a while. Looking at it... Over the last 2 seasons, BUF has played the teams in their division quite poorly - 14-21-3, for an 82 game point pace of just 67 points. This is last-place material. In the same span against the rest of the league, Buffalo has gone 49-49-15, an 82 point pace. Hardly lighting the world on fire, but significantly different from the suffocation best idealized by Barry Trotz' Islanders. We scored 2.45 goals per game against our divisional foes over the last two years, but 2.90 goals per game against the rest of the field. Half of a goal per game is a pretty big deal. If we played in a different division that was more aligned with that 82 point pace, one would still probably be skeptical that Hall + Staal + 4th line PKers + development could bridge the gap to playoffs, but add a real goalie to upgrade Hutton in that stack, and it would be reasonable to argue before the season that we were looking at a good NHL team that can compete. That pile of additions to a functionally-67-point roster? Not so much.

How are Gaudreau and Monahan doing? And that goalie that Kevyn was ready to move for? It's really cool that we finally shored up the 2C and 1G spots this summer. Ready for some playoffs baby

Perhaps - what is the practice scenario? Looking at schedule density I can see why they'd barely have any nowadays. I assume they got a couple weeks in during TC and the early season. Either way, the futility they have in trying to get off of the boards, compared to what Philly was doing this weekend and how much space every player was able to make and use at all times (and I don't necessarily think the Sabres looked that bad at defending, save for some stretches Sunday, and naturalstattrick seems to agree with this like they have the last couple of years) makes the Sabres look like they are playing a different sport. And this isn't new. I remember compiling stuff that suggested that they are the worst team at generating good looks for any 2 year span you could choose since the tank began. It just seems like it might have hit local minimum this year (they can't be as bad as the tank sabres, right?) There has to be something off with the substance or style or lack of drills, repetition, something, that has made this the case so consistently. Something needs to build the fluidity and chemistry up that allows teams to do this, and even though BUF has had it rough this year, we have good players, many of them have been together multiple years, other teams have their own trials and tribulations, so where else could this blame be pinned? GR was on in the garage while dad was working on a car recently, and I overheard someone (Paul?) complaining that the Sabres always go offside in practice, and nobody does anything about it. I dismissed it at the time because sometimes I think Paul picks weird stuff to make a big deal out of, but what if the janky, strained, minimalistic offense is a reflection of neglected skills that could easily be crafted given the sheer volume of raw talent available?

Skinner hat trick incoming

I agree that there is a much more insidious rot persisting in the depths of KBC than the newest coach's newest system, and I loathe to be the guy that appears to be excusing an obviously-underperforming slate of players, but my sister has been tracking something really interesting and worth chewing on (proud of her!). Of the last 7 games against teams not named the New Jersey Devils, the Sabres have scored goals in only 2 ways - on the power play, or from shots taken by defensemen within about 5 feet of the point. This stretch begins after the covid halt, goes 5 consecutive games, takes a break for NJ, and then returns vs. Philly again. On a period-by-period breakdown, the first stretch spanned 18 periods, or the equivalent of 6 games. 18 straight periods, and 7 consecutive non-Devils games and counting, of point shots and power plays being our only source of offense. Eichel, Hall, Reinhart, Skinner, Olofsson, Staal, Dahlin. Why can't these guys peel off the wall? What do they do in practice? It's not an effort thing, I see guys skating as hard as they ever have (which includes the obviously frustrating Eichel glides to the bench, but he's not visually exerting less effort than he was when he could do so much more than this, so that can't be it?) It has to be a practice thing, no? But even a focused effort of addressing this somehow and some way, at this point, would feel like doing nothing more than bringing a can of furniture polish and a belt sander to a burnt-down house that sits in smoldering ruins.

It's like the Sabres are my cigarettes and you guys are the guys I chain smoke with while driving around aimlessly on a Friday evening - I didn't even notice the rest of the NHL playoffs last fall, only heard of offseason moves at the dinner table, and have only seen a combined ~15 periods of Sabres hockey since this "season" began - solely because it's the only hobby I share with my sister, and I like to spend time with her. I've been hit by the massive club that is shifting priorities in your mid-20s - it's a shame the Bills couldn't have put that run together one season earlier, because I didn't enjoy it the way I would have on the other side. It barely moved the needle actually, and the Sabres are likewise occupying about 3% of my brain and 0% of my emotional state. Nevertheless I reached out to Taro last week, and just like that, I found myself watching both Sabres games this weekend, and then listening to GR this morning (wow!). The pull was nonexistent for months, but for some reason it came back. The Sabres aren't actually cigarettes, and the only negative thing I'm doing to myself in returning is cementing my image as one of those guys who leaves in a temper tantrum only to come crawling back...twice now! Good lord. I promise I'm not like this in real life. Luckily I bet circumstances around the team and "season" in general mean I'm far from the only one slinking in and out from/for long hibernations, so maybe it'll go unnoticed.. Not a fan of the jerseys. Other than that, we've all seen this game on repeat for the last decade, so nothing to add. I don't even think it bothers me that they're bad whatsoever. I miss the community of watching sports with the bros more than anything else.

Congrats on being a real man. This post has more "courage" against the grain of nonsensical shrieking and struggle sessions than any BLM post, take, stance will ever have.

Lmfao. Every power structure in this country is solemnly siding with these brave, heroic players, who cannot fathom why a good man trying to give his kids lolipops or some BS was shot in the back. Every major print and news media platform, sans one (1) tv station that is widely ridiculed by the rest in its own right, every single social media and internet service, owned by the most powerful entities in human history, who happily squash milquetoast opposition from this meaningful public square discussion, every single academic in every single university, along with every major corporation donating sums of money larger than most countries' GDPs to this "cause," while every single local official at every level of government in these locations tacitly endorses and allows and embraces the ensuing violence, while police stand down as your grandpa is beaten with 2x4s while defending his livelihood as it goes up in flames. What ***** planet are you people on. Imagine a man whose history includes pulling guns in confrontations, having a loaded weapon stashed in his car discovered upon finally being corralled after violently interacting with police in previous iterations of his legal troubles, who had an outstanding warrant for sexual assault, which the cops were made aware of upon arriving on call because he was violating a restraining order against a woman. Imagine this man aggressively resisting arrest, fighting through being tased, escalating past all reasonable warnings given by cops, escaping their embrace, and aggressively sauntering over to that side of the car, at gunpoint this entire time, ignoring all of these orders nonstop, chance after chance. He gets into the car, starts to turn, and was found to be going for his knife - but had it been the previously stashed loaded weapon, and had cops waited a millisecond longer, bullets would be spraying in every direction on a crowded street with kids in the car right next to them. Cops know this, and have to react accordingly, after they've exhausted all other options. Imagine the sheer lack of comprehension you must have to have in your brain to not understand what all of these actions will lead to in the face of the situation you are inexplicably escalating beyond the bounds any sane man would dare approach? Imagine not simply complying in this situation? Nobody who sits and makes these asinine judgments from their cozy lives would ever come within a ***** light year of acting this way in this situation. Either this man is genuinely missing his prefrontal cortex, or he understands that rather than going to prison where he will be treated how people who sexually assault get treated in prison, he has a chance at being given millions upon millions of dollars along with forever-hero status by supposedly nonexistent real world and cultural power structures. Just like George Floyd's abandoned family. Saint George, the man who had enough fentanyl in his system to kill a horse without the cocktail of meth, weed, and alcohol he was also on, who overdosed while in the restraint correctly taught and sanctioned by the MPD, though the links on their website to the studies that justify its use were scrubbed by the power arms, along with the footage and knowledge of his aggressive resistance being deleted from texts by the power arm in the AG position. These are your heroes. They didn't do nothin. Why do these pig cops who work peacefully within these communities for decades then just suddenly decide to snap and shoot brown people one day, even though it will literally ruin their lives and the lives of their families forever because of these cultural and political forces??? That is some dedicated raycissssssm!!!! Truly. I want a cop taking those shots every single time. This was accurate risk assessment in split second temporal spans that most "community watch group" advocates would spend simply shitting their pants and crying, while their surroundings crumble into ruins and their ancestors turn away in disgust. Meanwhile, we get to deal with the result of this garbage setting race relations back decades, here in the real world. Such that every time some absolutely revolting demon of a person decides to violently resist arrest and put everyone around them in danger, we get our towns burned down. So brave though, Lebron, tweeting about how whitey needs to teach their kids how to not hunt blacks on the street for fun! If only this guy knew how to move past page 2 of the books he is intensely reading in his social media photos, or how to read a ***** bar graph. Good lord almighty. 9 unarmed blacks shot by cops last year, all justified except one, and the cop is in prison for murder in that case. On the order of dozens of millions of police/civilian interactions each year, this corresponds to one second out of your next few years of life. Systemic. assert: racism National-level multivariate regression with like 5 controls out of infinite real world variables, ie, beyond useless: excellent, a 4% outcome discrepancy (that subsequent studies can make vanish by choosing one more control, but we don't talk about that) therefore science shows: systemic oppression and systemic raycizm stack of anecdotes: wildly distorted, flagrantly false, deliberately misleading, ready to go (With a dash of Ben ***** Crump witness ***** fraud) profit (and i mean serious, serious profit for all parties involved. life changing) Wew! Read the room sweetie. You did a racism, you did a colonialism. Check yourself, check your privilege. I can't wait for the rotting corpses of Minneapolis, Seattle, Kenosha etc. to be shown as examples of "white flight" ten years down the line by smarmy retards pretending that their overproduced useless degrees mean something. When businesses won't reopen because insurance companies watched all local officials let them burn last time. You guys are the biggest, most pathetic and traitorous frauds Earth has ever seen. Proper controls on any statistical analysis make all of your precious gaps, without which your worldview could not exist, vanish, in a way that would make Richard Dawkins proud, and then you're left with nothing but the obscene and despicable primal behaviors of a tiny fraction of people you will stop the earth to defend for reasons no sane person would ever understand. Your studies are junk, your concepts are junk, and your overwhelming narcissism and superiority complexes when discussing these topics are beyond tiresome, and your self-flagellation to attain social status points is an embarrassment. Should I hit submit on this post? There's no going back. If I hit it I'm probably not coming back to this forum, or to the internet. Because off the internet is where you can find millions of sane people, who have also compiled years of pent up astonishment, disbelief, and rage that such a historically illiterate and incompetent country, people, movement can exist at this level of power and influence. I sat down tonight to take my mind off of things and relax, and instead was greeted with midwit takes I grew past as a teenager, from self-absorbed athletes pretending they're novel and interesting ideas, and not endlessly tiresome and statistically illiterate tropes. I have seen the ledge that takes people overboard with less to lose than I have, and I am done. I guess I will hit submit.

Me too! I don't know ***** but I spend a lot of time on covid twitter lol

I'm vibin with your takes this summer wookie

The initial Hong Kong case the article refers to is quite dubious, from my understanding. His second "case" had zero symptoms and a very small viral load. It wasn't cultured, and if they used a PCR test (I'd bet money they did), the test cannot tell a live fragment of corona DNA from a dead one. And we know that dead fragments stay in your blood stream months after you get the disease. If they're scouring that closely, they should find plenty of "second cases" like this, and even real ones in outlier situations - you can catch any "once a lifetime" disease more than once if you're under enough immune stress, like that second person in the article was reportedly under If these two cases plus the hong kong one are what we have after half a year of this and millions of first cases, I can't see why we wouldn't be fine until mutation, given the effective multi-layered immune responses observed in those who get the virus, and the tendency for those T cells to remain in bloodstreams for years. Feel free to slap me around if I'm misunderstanding things, woody

I would be quite excited to add him.

Feels like its taking a long time to get the full trade

TFW we pretend that non-immunoligical legislation has any impact on that number

Nature doesnt exist, humanity as we knew it for millenia has been properly scrubbed clean in a few short years and any acknowledgment of brutal truths this attempts to hide (poorly) will ruin your life, and the new zeitgeist of western elites, who became revolted when the proles gradually came around to their used-to-be-unique worldview, is what we will shoehorn everywhere now. The flimsiness of this grasp upon any serious inspection is exactly why we must scold and punish so severely, as it cannot stand on its own merit Er, I mean, shut up bigot

It also took me many years, but I was a middle schooler so

99.3% has to be well within noise, and not considered unlucky. Bad Sabres teams hover around 96% sustainably haha. That would correspond to his plus-minus improving by ~3, which would at best give him 3 more points, but probably less when you consider some of that PDO improvement might come in goaltending

That's the way I see it. Okposo's playing speed on a skill line would hamper the line, which is why everyone hated him in 2017. His foot speed is just fine for his current role which is why everyone likes him now

The day he signed that was one of the happier days I've had as a sabre fan

But if we acquire Monahan, I'd like another defensive player coming in from another organization, and would put Larry/Zemgus at the top of the priority list too, higher than they were already