rakish

Serves me right for reading Garth yesterday

My understanding is that he isn't like a regular UFA, he gets a 3 year entry contract with its limits, but no tie to Chicago

No, they get a 2nd round where Hayes was chosen in the first, which is 24 I believe, so that would be 54. My reading of the CBA is that Lanny is right, there is no direct compensation from the team that signs.

Whoops, made a mistake, the Kariya 1993 numbers are just silly, I typoed entering data, fixed the d46.php chart

I ignore the USHL part of the season and just use the USDP. I looked at it for awhile, and USDP grads aren't really comparable to USHL grads. So in the end I'm comparing new grads (Larkin-Eichel-Milano) to previous grads (Kane-van Riemsdyke-Schroeder) to get an idea on the scoring that the new grads will do. I do that with each variable, so I looked at all the players Eichel's size, and see how they translated to the NHL, all the November born players, etc... Each league has their own wrinkle, so you don't get each stat for each player. There's a lot more data I'd like to have, but I work with what I got.

USDP? not as much. The problems in valuating college kids are 2. First, there are very few 17 year olds in NCAA because you have to be born in the right couple of months, so there are more 17 year olds in the NHL from USDP than in NCAA at 17. I could do more work on 18 year olds, but I haven't yet. The second is the method I'm using. It's hard to tell if you are a boy in men's league, leagues like KHL and Liiga and SEL, or whatever it's called now, are difficult. It's much easier when you lead the team, so I worry less about a USDP valuation than a KHL. College kids generally don't lead their team, so it's not as difficult as KHL, so it's in between the easy ones (CHL) and the hard ones. I'm fairly confident in the Eichel valuation. Look at Eichel and the other USDP's. Eichel outscores three top 20 picks a year half older at an age when PPG increases by 50%/year or so. On the other hand, you may be right. Patrick Kane is probably a bit high, I could see Eichel being rated a bit high. We'll see more this year.

http://www.limedata.us/blog/b46.php Kariya has only one year I can use, since I never came up with a number for BCJHL, and his second year at Maine is too short to get a reasonable valuation. Kariya's year is at age 17, so when the chart opens (to 16), use the yellow buttons on top to move to 17. No, there's nothing as to the year. I added Gretzky and Lemieux as tongue in cheek, but I think it works now. I think both the juniors and the NHL lost scoring roughly comparably, so even though a current junior isn't going to score like Lemieux in juniors, he won't score like Lemieux in the NHL either. As far as other college players, you can dig through the draft post (b40.php) and find some college players, I count 4 WCHA players. Toews is at 873 at age 17, which is too low. The valuations are more random for college players.

Always love your analysis Yuri.

I agree, I don't think he's going to make it. On the other hand he does score in Junior, which is pretty much what I'm saying about each of them.

I did some valuation on mostly top-2 picks at their pre-NHL seasons to get a sense of where Eichel and McDavid stand as prospects. The chart is similar to the Sabres' pipeline chart over in the Sabres' prospects post. To summarize where Eichel and McDavid stand after age 16. 1. Gretzky 2. Lemieux 3. Crosby 4. Eichel 5. Ovechkin 6. Tavares 7. Patrick Kane 8. McDavid 9. Taylor Hall 10. Seguin

Two new charts today. One here, the other in the 2015 Draft. This is the Sabres' pipeline. I added some former prospects like Ennis, Hodgson, and Zagrapan to give you an idea how the kids compare. To do this right, I would need to chart everyone (like the 2014 draft, but much bigger, since I'm usually charting 4 ages.), so you could compare Baptiste to everyone his size, but that would take months of work, so I present this with some reservation. If you click the yellow buttons along the top you can see the different age groups, or click all to see all the dots and lines. To summarize, what I get isn't too far from Numark, and very close to Liger 1. Reinhart 2. Risto 3. McCabe 4. Baptiste 5. Fasching 6. Zadorov 7. Grigorenko 8. Compher 9. Possler 10. Carrier

You nailed it Tank Thanks for being so flexible with the tickets Tom, the off season contest is a great event

Eliteprospects.com has good lineage. Ryan Pilon is expected to be taken in the 2015 draft. Ryan has an Uncle Rich Pilon. Rich's son Garrett is 15 years old and plays in a league I don't know.

My favorite restaurant in New York is The Cottage, 77 and Amsterdam. I think the dumplings in hot oil sauce is wonderful, and if you are nice to the waitress, they bring carafes of free box wine For Indian we use to go to Panna II, maybe 1st Ave and 5th Street, they too did not have a liquor license, so you bring your own bottle of wine or beer. If you google it, you can see the goofy decor I would consider something you can't get at home, Ethiopian is good.

Vancouver?

this site covers it fairly well http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_season_team/Buffalo_Sabres/2002-03/1

From the Junior point of view, Drouin and Reinhart are the same age since they are born the same year. The NHL has the cutoff not at New Years, but in the middle of September. Reinhart and MacKinnon are almost the same age, Drouin about six months older. Drouin started his first year in a lower league. I'm unsure why, since, if you look at eliteprospects.com, Drouin was scoring like a big dog in 10-11, yet he starts 11-12 in the lower league. Reinhart actually got games in in 10-11, I think partially because Halifax was a stronger team than Kootenay, and partially because as the son of an NHL player, doors were opened earlier. Additionally, Drouin has played shorter seasons, I'm guessing injuries

What the writer upthread was talking about was 1 of 4 prospects, plus a high pick. You don't get Nyquist and Tatar and Jurco and Mantha, it's or, plus a high pick.

Certainly it's all opinion. The model thinks TBL and LAK drafted well, even without top picks, and the model thinks Buffalo drafted like a bad team. Sorry 11, http://www.limedata.us/blog/b40.php I skipped a letter

The model is essentially "Do you score enough for your body size?" There's some other things in it, but that's the best way to think of it. If you check Lemieux, he's in the Axel Holmstrom chart, which is about half way down. Now it isn't a bad group, in fact, it's one of my favorite sizes, and he's not far from O'Reilly, but he doesn't score enough. One of the things important to me is are there prospects rated below you that became NHL players, and for Lemieux that's a no (without checking to see if one of these guys is playing in Nashville or somewhere) Lemieux could be top 50, he's the right size to play, but if I view the players from their perspective, I can talk myself into most anybody. So I tried to do it on a more numerical basis.

As always, love your work

To grade the draft, I took my model, www.limedata.us/blog/40.php, and selected what it thought was the top 50 or so players, then see who got those players. This is really rough, no goaltenders, it does a bad job on weird leagues, I never got defensemen scaled right, but according to the model, the better teams, generally, picked better players Team Picks Total Score TBL 4 1500 LAK 4 1000 STL 2 1000 NYI 2 1000 TOR 2 1000 CGY 1 1000 BUF 1 1000 FLA 3 900 DET 3 900 EDM 1 900 PHI 3 700 VAN 2 700 AZ 2 700 NSH 3 600 Most everyone else got 1 of the top 50 or so, some, like New Jersey got zero. The model loves Barbashev, but Tampa Bay traded down instead of taking him, which gives me pause, since Tampa Bay knows this stuff. Barbashev will be my most watched player from this draft. Tim Murray arrived in town with the second overall pick, 3 seconds, and the ability to take dead money from other teams, and left town farther away from Tampa in talent then he was before. I believe I am the first off the Tim Murray bus.

I still really need Hodgson out, and Moulson and Ott in, to win a prize

Hey 38, I got the oysters on the grill, where are you?

Ehlers scored 1.4ppg in the roughly 18 games without Drouin, 1.6 total, and 1.7 in the games with Drouin. He's not a bad player, but 1.4 in the Q doesn't make you worth the draft position he'll get. If you swapped Ho Sang and Ehlers this season, I'm sure you would swap where they would be drafted as well