rakish

Ghost, what's the process like? You watching youtube, or do you have a product from the NFL that has a lot of video.

I'm in Virginia, so I get to start before many of you. The things I have learned are: Tomatoes need a lot of sun. I have a hard time finding a place with 5 hours of sun. My girlfriend has issues with tomato plants next to the street, so I have most of my tomatoes in buckets so I can move them into the sun as needed. I think I'll move them to the neighbors in a month. My market deli gets hard boiled eggs in buckets, so they give me the bucket when they are done. Seeds need warmth to germinate. I put my seeds under a sheet with a lamp on underneath to provide warmth. My tomatoes are about 3 inches. Like ghost, I have critters, so I'm trying plastic fencing this year.

I think this is right. To me he talked about the people he had seen on his road trip, my guess is he hadn't seen Dal Colle or Bennett on this trip, so he talked mostly about the three he had seen.

If it's a 3, then it's either Tracy Pratt, who wore 3, or Paul Terbenche, who wore 23, Eddie Shack, a forward, also wore 23 that season. I'm vague on most of the other Sabres, but I remember Shack

Joe Daley only played 70-71 season. Elite Prospects has jersey numbers, _8 looks like Terry Ball Detroit 10 is certainly Delvecchio The other Detroit player looks really big, so Mahovlich?

It looks fake to me. I think the depth of field is too deep for a photograph with that short of an exposer time and a lens that long and an interior shot. It looks to me like the audience is photoshopped in. Though there handling of light is well done, all the shadows look right, so I could be wrong about the fake-ness

I would think Bailey would be too young. Brady Austin? Justin Kea?

Let me further expound on yesterday's idea. Let's say you were drafting from the Buffalo Sabres to a higher league. If you look at the stats, you'd say Hodgson was young, good scorer, defensive zone problems, so in a word, he's OK. If you had one of his supporters watch 82 games, they'd say Hodgson is great. If you ask me, I'd say don't draft him. I don't either scout gets to the core value of Cody Hodgson by watching him more, because that's not how perception works. I think counter-intuitively, we love and hate more, and we value less.

Google led me to this link, quotes a THN article from 2012 http://hfboards.hock...d.php?t=1234791 Oh, thanks Crusader, I want to let you know I do read your stuff

Any scout involved with the team from that timeframe, at all, should be gone. To paraphrase X, if you are coming to faulty conclusions, change a premise, and see if things are better. You all believe that the best way to judge junior hockey players is to watch them, I believe it's a math problem. I have 2 arguments in support of this. 1. We, as a group (SS) can't even agree on Sabres, let alone Toronto St Michael Major players. The difference of opinion here on Stafford(with Nolan), Weber, Ennis, and Hodgson is enormous. 2. CSS does a terrible job at rating players. I study the 2002-2011 area, just the first 2 rounds, I don't have the 2009 CSS ranking, I use the Sports Illustrated for 2003, I'm not sure if the 2008 is the CSS final, my PDF isn't marked. Today we are taking the top North American player available when the Sabres pick. If you chose the top CSS NA ranked player available, you would get: good player: Eminger, Brown, Myers, Pysic. An OK player with Chipchura and Emmerton Nothing: Vagner, Wharton, McArdle, Collins, Nigel Williams, Shutron, Cross, Bashirkov, Robak, Stefanovich That would be terrible, and how are the CSS lists made? by scouts looking at games 2002 11 Sabres take Ballard, Best skater on Board is Duncan Keith or Matt Stajan, Eminger is highest NA CSS rated available, rated 6 20 Sabres take Paille, BOB Keith, Stajan, CSS: Vagner(8) 2003 5 Vanek BOB Vanek, Getzlaf, Perry, Shea Weber, Bergeron Sports Ill Dustin Brown(2) 2004 13 Stafford BOB: Stafford ,Zajak,Green CSS Kyle Chipchura(4) 43 Funk BOB: Comeau , Dubinsky CSS Kyle Wharton(13) 2005 13 Zagrapan BOB: Neal, Vlasic CSS Kendall McArdle(7) 48 Gogulla BOB: Adam McQuaid CSS: Dan Collins(24) 2006 24 Persson BOB: Foligno, Matthius, Lucic CSS: Cory Emmerton(10) 46 Enroth BOB: Matthius, Lucic CSS: Nigel Williams(13) 57 Weber BOB: Marchand CSS Ben Shutron(16) 2007 31 TJ Brennan BOB: PK Subban,Galliardi,Spaling CSS: Tommy Cross(12) 59 Scheistel BOB: Jamie Benn CSS Ruslan Bashkirov(35) 2008 12 Myers BOB Myers, Eberle CSS not sure version Myers(6) 26 Ennis BOB Ennis,John Carlson,Stepan CSS: Colby Robak(8) 44 Adam BOB Stepan,Hamonic CSS: Mikhail Stefanovich(16) 2009 13 Kassian BOB: Kulikov,Leddy,O'Reilly CSS: Don't have 2010 23 Pysyk BOB Coyle,Pysyk,Faulk,Toffoli CSS: Pysyk(9)

I think the tweet uses a literal definition of 'Sabres', thus not including Gerbe and Adam as well, (as long as Adam is an Amerk this week). I think it's a very tortured definition of Sabres

Good article Taro, thanks As for it being talked about, Metafilter doesn't have a recent post on ICANN, which surprises me. As far as thoughts, my politics say it's a good thing, but I don't have a strong argument behind that. I think the blog writer's point that it was inevitable is true.

Part 2 is out, Part 1 I posted a week or two ago, I think it was page 29 To summarize, I'm writing an app that drafts, it is still a work in progress. To evaluate the app, I have it take a Sabre Alternative Universe draft, finding what it thinks is the best pick for the Sabres first two round picks between 2002 and 2012, about 23 picks. This time the results are very similar to the first effort, a bit better. Toffoli Dubinski Corey Perry Kulikov Del Zotto Hamonic PK Subban Vlassic McQuaid Eminger Daley Beaulieu Maatta Ceci Severson Using the app with this alternative universe draft yields this 2014 ranking, the app uses the adjectives 'Excellent' and 'Deep' when looking at 2014. The parenthetical is the position that player would fit into the decade(2002-2011), so Bennett ranks between the 6th best and the 7th best, only behind Crosby, Gagner, Tavares, Patrick Kane, Eric Staal, Couturier Sam Bennett(6.5) Roland McKeown(11.5 for defensemen) Michael Dal Colle(13.5) Brendan Perlini(14.5) Robb Fabbri(22.5) Leon Draisaitl(25.5) Aaron Ekblad(32.5) Nick Ritchie(32.5) Sonny Milano(44.5) Jake Virtanen(37.5) Sam Reinhart(57.5) Nik Ehlers(64.5) Alex Tuch(59.5) Haydn Fleury(78.5) Jarad McCann(80.5) Josh Ho-Sang(86.5) Nik Goldobin(85.5) Connor Bleackley(95.5) Part 1 got a fair amount of pushback, so in part 2 I separated out the leagues, and listed Bennett vs the OHL players and Reinhart vs the WHL players. Not only does the app miss some excellent players, like Myers, Lucic, Bergeron just to name three, it's still a work in progress, very few Euro's no college players, no High School, no overagers. Seguin is too low, Eberle is too low, lots of work still to do. As for 2014, I'm only looking at 25 or so prospects, so I would be surprised if new names didn't appear in future lists. I added a metric this week, that benefits Draisaitl. Loyalty questioned Draisaitl's ppg, since he has been better lately. I had Draisaitl at 1.59, or 1.69 I forget. I haven't updated the 17 year old stats in a couple weeks, I want to wait until the place I'm taking them from is final. So I moved Draisaitl's ppg to 2, and that moved him up with Perlini at 14.5 on the everyone list, and between Schenn and Kane on the WHL list. It would probably matter more to Draisaitl's ranking if I adjusted some of the other metrics, but since they are interconnected, I can't. I would need box scores for each game you wanted to count, it would get ugly. I think Draisaitl seems low because he's sixth, but the better way to look at it is that the app has him at 25.5 for the decade, there are some excellent players in that range, like Landeskog(19), Dustin Brown(21), Huberdeau(24), Horton(25). As to the number one pick, I agree, you should consider Draisaitl, there's something wrong with that team, the Olympics were weird, is it him? Don't know. The good news for Sabres fans is that one of the smalls ((if I remember correctly) Fabbri,Ehlers,Goldobin,Ho-Sang) are going to fall, so the Sabres have a good chance at getting 3 players (or at least 2) the app thinks can play. Bennett, Draisaitl, Ehlers would be great. Dal Colle, Perlini, Goldobin would be great. Dal Colle, Ritchie, Fabbri would be great. The app, of course, will change some as I try to make it better.

Thanks, that explains some stuff. There's a note on the 2004 rankings that Stastny had not opted in, which is why he was drafted in 2005. I haven't seen anything like that since, so it's probably a rule change. Looking at the CSS final 2004 rankings it was the College kids, USHL, and the HS kids who had to opt in. The CSS final 2005 does not have the same note.

Yeah, this is exactly the sort of analysis I'm doing, with a few extra variables. Right now I have Bennett a little behind Hall and ahead of Seguin. There will be an original 6 in the lotto, right? I wanted to ask you about the draft process. My guess is that they ask if you want to be drafted, and that's why Vanek wasn't drafted at 17, and why the college player the Islanders signed yesterday wasn't drafted last year, because he'd rather be a free agent this year rather than a 4th round pick last year. That right? Next time I'll look at Draisaitl with part year stats

The wasteland comment was hyperbole, I shouldn't write after wine starts. My point Liger, is that the comparison between OHL and WHL players is a complex topic. If you cut it at 5, it's one answer, if you cut it at 10, it's another. WHL Defenseman don't share this at all. I think it's fair to say the WHL puts out really good forwards (it's an opinion), and it's also fair to say WHL forwards should be heavily discounted(a different opinion), we're always working with a limited data set. So using the value system in the first try, I discounted WHL stats heavily, I don't draft Myers or Ennis even though they were probably the best two on the board at those picks. But if I'm LA, I'm not picking Thomas Hickey with PK or Couture or Gagner on the board. Next time I'll use different number to value WHL players, and Reinhart's value will be higher, will it create a better alternative universe Sabres? Don't know. This is why I think you have to look at 25 picks, does this system work over the 11 years, I think so, Is it a work in progress, definitely If you look at the blog, it gets Kane about right, RNH and Nino not so much, and regarding Jones or Lazar, I won't be able to add 2013 for a few years to judge success. On a side note, I calculated PPG for 17 year olds about 2 or 3 weeks ago, then again yesterday. Ehlers is really playing well right now. If only he was 30 pounds heavier.

I use 5 metrics. First, is the league that you play in. If you look at the draft over the last 15 years, the WHL(where Reinhart plays) in, the top 10 is a wasteland for forwards. Whether it's Gilbert Brule, Thomas Hickey, Zach Hamil, Keaton Ellerby,Kyle Beach, Scott Glennie, or Brett Connolly. I think you can argue that it's coincidence, but the type of analysis I'm doing, I have to take meaning from this. The OHL(where Bennett plays) doesn't have this problem. Second, I look at the age. Reinhart is older than Bennett. I've talked a lot about age, and I used to believe Reinhart was benefited with a Nov birthdate, but my current thought is that the first quarter (17.9-18 or June July Aug) like Bennett are benefited by about 20%, the third quarter (18.3-18.6 or Jan, Feb Mar) are penalized 20%, the other two quarters are pretty much even. But 20% is a lot of points benefit for Bennett that Reinhart doesn't get. Where I was mistaken before was that teams would penalize the fourth quarter, when they shouldn't. But either way, Bennett gets a lot of bonus that Reinhart doesn't. The other three metrics, size, plus minus, and one I don't want to tell you, Reinhart doesn't excel. Reinhart comes in at about 50, Patrice Bergeron rates 48, so he could become an excellent hockey player, but he's in a group that has some flat out failure. As I say, these ratings will float some, as I pin down exactly how WHL should be treated vs OHL, how players the size of Reinhart should be treated vs everyone else, and this will happen for each of the 5 metrics, I may even add a metric. But if you haven't, read the blog post linked above, I do an alternative reality sabres draft using this app, I think it's interesting.

My first draft board of the year. This will be like the football guys, who have their weekly draft boards, McShea and the other guy. There's a lot of 17 year olds I haven't looked at, and I haven't looked at any 18 year olds, so this may improve from where I thought was a pretty bad draft, to an OK draft. I'm not to the point where I can value everyone, and for the first run I'm fairly unsure about the USHL kids. I didn't count collegiate, High Schoolers, Finns, Russians, and SEL, but I do value SWE-jr players. I don't have Nylander's stats yet. 6: Robb Fabbri 36.5 (if you read my blog post, you would know that this means he came in with a worse score than the 36th best forward for the decade(2002-2011), and better than the 37th best. 5: Sonny Milano 30.5 4: Aaron Ekblad 29.5 best defenseman 3: McKeown Roland 29.4, just ahead of Ekblad 2: Michael Dal Colle 14.5 1: Sam Bennett 6.5 The rankings will flow a bit as I get a better comparison of the different metrics. Overall the scores are higher than I expected, an earlier version had Bennett leading at 22. Also Nick Ritchie may appear in future top picks, I'm not sure yet the best way to value power forwards.

I was thinking Zadorov and Ullmark

I've been working on an app that drafts. Before I get to 2014, the app runs down who he would have picked from the Sabres draft position in the first two rounds, 2002-2012. Roughly 23 picks, 7 or 8 flops, 14 or 15 good picks Apologies in advance, he's a bit of a tool. http://www.limedata.us/blog/b33.php For those who just want to see the results, it is a bit defense heavy, but I didn't allow any judgment calls, best player available. Toffoli Stajan Kids: Chris Tierney PK Subban and Vlasic McQuaid and Del Zotto Weircioch and Kulikov Shea Weber and Mike Weber Nathan Beaulieu.and Trevor Daley Ceci and Maatta

Hso, are you Bostock? if so, thanks for d3, I love it.

So I just read the relevant paragraphs. My guess is that gapgeek is correct. I think in reality he retires two years earlier, so they would see a caphit recapture of 9m over 3 years. It's interesting they don't have a good illustration in the CBA and this is a viable disagreement (I think it's very possible you are right) I've changed my mind on this today. I think the best approach would be to buy him out, especially if you live in tank nation, because it would be sad to lose 9m in caproom even if it's spread over 3 years. in 2018-19,19-20, and 20-21 On preview, I think Blue is right about the intent

Tank, don't the Caps have a Russian kid who is good? Kuznetsov. I thought people were excited about him

Thanks Lanny and Drunkard for helping me understand the recapture penalty. What's the maximum if he's traded and he retires before his last year, 10m or 9m caphit?