rakish

I have an analogy for the problem of using corsi. I'm going to ask a few questions of X, he's being generous enough to try to work through it with me, allowing me the space to get my point across. It will take a bit to get to hockey, but eventually we will get to hockey. In the 18th century or so, the King of England decided to implement the window tax. The assessor would drive up to the house, count your windows, and levy your tax. The first two questions are, Why didn't this work? and What does it teach us about data?

I wrote this a few years ago. I was trying to get a sense of what available goaltenders at the time should be paid. I took everybody's shots against at each distance, multiplied by the league average for that distance, then combined the distances to give you an idea of how many goals they saved. Then plotted that against how much money they made. This was before I realized that you couldn't just draw in your own line of regression because it looked good. As I wrote then, I think the idea is a failure because Cody Hodgson was on the ice for worse 10 foot shots than Steve Ott was, or he was really unlucky. This makes sense if you watched Buffalo play hockey that year, but how do you adjust for that? The same would be true of Neuvirth in your question. Yeah I can tell you how many 10 foot shots he sees, and what percent the average goaltender saves, but like Hodgson and Ott, is he seeing a more difficult 10 foot shot than Rinne is? I think he is, making the piece useless. So I wouldn't bother reading the piece.

the 100% issue seems to be standing room. United Center has seating capacity of 19,717, then they sell about 2 thousand standing room.

I wanted to see how internet sources did last year. I realize there's a difference between a ranking and a mock, but this is all I could find that was more than 30 deep. This is http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2014/ If you take the highest available player on their board, the Sabres would have taken: 2 Bennett 31 Barbashev 44 Roland McKeown 49 Jack Dougherty 61 Justin Kirkland 74 Aaron Irving 121 Dyson Mayo 151 Nikita Serebryakov 181 Spencer Watson a very similar list from http://thehockeywriters.com/2014-nhl-mock-draft-three-round-final-edition/ 2 Draisaitl 31 Barbashev 44 McKeown 49 Dougherty 61 Sebastian Aho 74 Anton Karlsson 121 Dyson Mayo 151 Spencer Watson 181 Emil Johansson If anyone has a copy of mckeens or any of the others, I would appreciate it. The css is divided into NA and EU, which makes it rather useless.

I finished my analysis of the 2014 draft. It's just a snapshot in time, because I was just trying to see what teams are using a model similar to mine, and what teams aren't. Therefore some players who the model didn't like at the time of the draft, like Lemieux, would be more liked now, since Lemieux is having a pretty big year. Others like Cornel aren't having a big year this year, so if we were talking the strength of the pipeline today, Cornel would come off the list. How I did scoring was 2 points for significantly above the line of regression(19 picks), one point for good pick. The list ends up being similar to the WJC list that I posted above in December St Louis 7 Tampa, Nashville 6 Detroit, Toronto 5 Anaheim, Buffalo, Florida 4 Vancouver, San Jose, Carolina, Islanders, LA, Winnipeg 3 The full list is at limedata.us. I'll do a redraft at the end of the year, I probably will never do all 7 rounds of an earlier draft.

I ran the numbers a few years ago on plus/minus of Myers with different partners, I think I did the previous 3 years. Myers had considerably better plus/minus with an offensive partner. I have one year up on my website, It's the short season. http://www.limedata.us/3.php Fill in Buffalo and Myers in the two boxes on top

Would they have drafted Toews?

Clendening is 22 in his third AHL year. If I got this right, he's not waiver exempt next year. There's been a lot of talk here about who the Blackhawks might part with due to the salary cap, I think this indicates they are thinking about parting with a forward instead of a defenseman. Forsling, though drafted low in 2014, has had a pretty good year since, with lots of points at the World Juniors. Chicago is buying a few more years in a prospect, Vancouver is getting a more ready player. I like the move from each perspective..

Interesting, thanks 11

Liger I googled a bit to no avail, is Kovi's KHL contract priced in rubles?

Yeah, their method isn't very good, but even still, it's better than CSS, which is taken as scripture by most people in this thread

I like the Canucks guys. There are mistakes aplenty in this article, but this is the money quote for me: as we have found there to be a strong correlation between a prospect’s draft-year points-per-game, and NHL games player (pearson’s r =.41 indicating strong positive relationship), which tends to be a moderately better indicator of future NHL success than NHL's Central Scouting final rankings.

Central Scouting Final Rankings 2007 North America 1 Kyle Turris (Centre) 2 Patrick Kane (Right 3 James van Riemsdyk (Left Wing)

This link talks a little about the max number of contracts, to quote: ....But 18 and 19-year-old players assigned to their team in the CHL do not count against the 50-contract maximum, until they have played at least 11 NHL games in one season. So Reinhart, Bailey, Baptiste don't count, which puts the number at 48

No, lately. Just a theory developed looking at their drafts, it looks like Tank tanks the first 3 picks, and I get the next 4. I wouldn't have taken Larkin, but you guys love Larkin. I wouldn't have taken Audette's kid, or Bertuzzi Nephew last year, but for me, their lower picks are wonderful. I wouldn't be surprised if Nyquist was a product of their data guy. I think Datsuyk and Zetterburg are a product of Detroit was doing more scouting in Europe at that time, but that was a long time ago, Now everyone has people in Europe. As far as Crouse, Liger's question, I haven't been looking at 2015 at all, still occupied with 2014, so I don't know. I'm looking forward to where Marner ends up.

I'm a data analyst, not a scout. My theory is that we are going through a period where the teams that view the draft as a data project are outdrafting the teams that try to do it by eye. I'll have more on this next week, but my draft board was very similar to the better NHL teams, Tampa, LA, St Louis, maybe Nashville, later rounds Detroit. Most of these teams have recent non-top draft picks that are difference makers. As to your specific questions, what I do is compare Eichel to other USDP players for his 16th year, then see how those players did, but I also need to compare Eichel to the other players his size, his age, because their skill increasing dramatically at this age, and a few other metrics. The Euro leagues are more difficult for me because the player is often playing with adults. It's easier to tell when someone dominates the CHL league, like McDavid, that he will dominate in the NHL. The Euro is often playing with adults, and doesn't dominate. As far as OHL/college, there's a big difference in age, OHL is roughly 16-20, college is roughly 18-22

Thanks liger Part 2 of this series will be how each team drafted using my system did. What jumps out at me so far is that Nashville and surprisingly Winnipeg know what they are doing, but that will be a week or so

The WJC provides a first indicator on how teams drafted. Now this indicator isn't perfect, since a team could choose 7 German's, have 7 players in the WJC without any prospects, additionally, the WJC teams have a high rate of 5'9" forwards, and some players aren't available, like Bennett and Draisaitl, but many of the good teams top this list, so I give it some value. Red Wings 15 Larkin 106 Ehn 166 Vahatalov 196 Holmstrom Blues 21 Fabbri 33 Barbashev 94 Husso Lightning 19 DeAngelo 35 Masin 79 Point Predators 11 Fiala 42 Kamenev 132 Lyytinen Sharks 27 Goldobin 46 Bergman 53 Rod Canucks 6 Virtanen 36 Demko 126 Forsling Rangers 59 Halverson 118 Shestyorkin Sabres 2 Reinhart 181 Olofsson Ducks 10 Richie 205 Kase Wild 18 Tuch 109 Kahkonen Hurricanes 37 Nedeljkovic 97 Wallmark Kings 29 Kempe 60 Lintuniemi Blue Jackets 16 Milano 47 Collins Jets 9 Ehlers 99 De Leo Capitals 13 Vrana 39 Vanecek Islanders 78 Sorokin 95 Soderstrom Leafs 8 Nylander 68 Valiyev Stars 14 Honka Penguins 22 Kapanen Canadiens 55 Lehkonen Blackhawks 20 Smaltz Bruins 25 Pastrnak Senators 40 Englund Oilers 91 Lagesson Coyotes 87 Karlsson Flyers 138 Lindblom How would my draft board have compared? Let's say the Buffalo Sabres had used my draft board in 2014, it's at http://www.limedata.us/blog/b40.php Conclusion Buffalo's board at 2: Reinhart or Bennett Second round: Holmstrom, Glover, Engvall, Sanheim, Kempe, Point Third round: Kirkland, Iverson, Mayo, Amadio, Bristedt, Kontos, Tkachev, Gunnarsson, Wood At 2 they would have picked Reinhart(USA) or Bennett At 31 they would have picked the only player (of 17) not expected to be available at 31, Barbashev(Russia) At 44 Holmstrom (SWE) 49 Glover 61 Engvall Sanheim and Kempe drafted in first round 74 Point (Canada) Kirklank drafted at 62 Iverson drafted at 85 121 Mayo Amadio drafted at 90 151 Bristedt (SWE) 181 Kontos That's 5 of 9, but mapping them against many teams would leave 3 of say 7, because I only get Point if the team had 6 picks before Tampa at pick 79, and not everyone had a shot at Barbashev

A two parter: He leads the 2014 Buffalo Sabres in winning percentage of games he has played Someone else led the NHL in 2013-2014 (with a few games played) his team winning 15 of the 16 games he played

I think it's a fair complaint, I was working off the wikipedia article and they list the borderline players, then state whether they were on the cup or not, that's what I was trying to get at with the 'season' language. I didn't forsee someone like Gare, since the page doesn't list players leaving midseason. I tried to look at everyone that won their first cup after 1970, but between wine and fatigue, I missed at least two. I am very impressed at how sabrespace did, I expected maybe 10 total. thanks for playing.

In conclusion, for the 3rd or 4th recount 19 names on the cup 3 played for the winning team, didn't get name on cup

I missed one of Shader's, so my numbers above are two off. We have 15 with names on cup of 20 1 of 2 that played on team that won cup, but left off I didn't look at staff

I missed one that Taro named, so add one to all the totals