nfreeman

Thanks gents. I agree -- a 2-year "prove it" deal is called for here. I read that it was "Bowl-you", with emphasis on 1st syllable.

I think it's about 40% likely that he turns out to be an average starter, about 30% likely that he's well above average, and about 15% each that he's either a washout or a star. And for that, there is NFW I want to commit to $4MM x 4 years or even 3. The team was historically bad when Ennis was coming into his own in the NHL. He's missed the better part of 2 years with injuries but before that he had elite speed, good to very good hands and a nice edge. Carrier IMHO is a nice crash-bang forechecker who has a decent hockey IQ and zero hands. I would much rather lose most of the Sabres' other unprotected guys, but at the same time if Carrier is taken and isn't easily replaced by Baptiste/Bailey/Fasching, then the Sabres whiffed on all 3 of those guys. I agree with most of this, although I think you oversimplified about Ennis' significant cap hit not counting. The Sabres can't just drop him on LTIR whenever they like. It has to be for a significant, long-term injury.

Interesting question. Does anyone know when he becomes a UFA? If it's next summer, then I'd think he'll get a 3-year deal.

Well, I think the price that Vegas will charge to take Moulson or Bogo off our hands will be too high, so I think they'll most likely take Carrier, and if not him then Ullmark.

No real surprises.

It's fairly likely that they'd rather have Vegas take Moulson or Ennis than Bogo -- but that Vegas would prefer to take Bogo.

My prediction: 4-4-1 ROR, KO, Kane, Zemgus Risto, McCabe, Beaulieu, Bogo Lehner

I don't find Harrington's uninformed musings in any way indicative of what the Sabres might do.

I'm going to say there is NFW they leave Beaulieu unprotected.

What was it about JBott that gave you this vibe? I think it's probably reasonable to assume that people don't need to be instructed to "think about it." Also, 0.38 is not 0.8 more than 0.30.

Broken Arrow was a very good and underrated action thriller with Slater and post-Pulp Fiction John Travolta.

When you put it that way -- first, it's kind of a bummer that we only have 3 forwards worth protecting, and 2nd, it does seem fairly likely that they'll decide to go 4-4-1 and protect Bogo instead of those 4 JAG forwards.

But there's also the real value of getting Vegas to take one of the albatross contracts -- which is a bigger factor than keeping/losing Ullmark, IMHO.

So at this point, Vegas will likely choose one of Ullmark, Moulson, Ennis or Bogo, right? I still think they'll take Ullmark unless JBott pays them not to do so. What's it worth to keep Ullmark and for Vegas to take one of the other 3? The other 3rd-rounder? I think I'd pay that but not the Sabres' 2nd-rounder. What about a prospect? Would it be worth Carrier or Baptiste?

Very nice. Good post. Keep them coming! Good call, but I think I'd still rather expose Bogo than Beaulieu.

Also -- he's an RFA this summer, having just finished a 2-year deal at $1MM per year.

Totally agree that this is a smart value move. As for Bogo -- I'm skeptical that they'll give anything to Vegas to protect Bogo. It occurs to me that they think Vegas will take Bogo -- and that this is why Howie has been talking up Moulson and Ennis -- i.e. because they think they'll be stuck with those 2 (and not Bogo). Well, our confidence about JBott isn't really important IMHO. What is important is adding guys like Antipin and the FNG into the mix to give the Sabres more bites at the apple. Yes -- #17 overall in 2011. He's also 6'2, 205 lbs and it sounds like he's a good skater.

So this means they protect Risto, McCabe and the FNG, right? And expose Bogo?

A 2nd team in Toronto would be bad for the Sabres. This too.

If they trade up into the top 4, it's gotta be for Makar, innit? Kane and #8 for #4 and Colorado's 2nd-rounder?

This is a pretty strong move by the young fella and his bride.

Well, if it means they play in NYC more often, sign me up!

Correct -- it was closer to mid-season, Reino was centering Kane and Bailey/other winger, that line was very effective and it sure looked like Reino is a natural center. And while you are also correct that I generally have been a bit lukewarm on Reino, to be clear, my posts last night about trading Reino for Vatanen were not meant to advocate for that move. I was just attempting to interpret Howie's silence on Reino, plus free associating with the Sabres' need for a defenseman, the high market price for defensemen and the availability of Vatanen. I want to see what a good coach can do with Reino. But I wouldn't be shocked if he is traded for a defenseman.

Not good enough to be, say, Buffalo's Hjalmarsson -- a really good 2-way #3 defenseman who isn't quite elite but plays a lot, along with your top pair, and allows you to cycle through cheaper guys at 4-7? And is that type of defenseman more valuable than Reino?

Awesome.