tom webster

The rules are simple. Just predict what changes will or won't happen this off season. The person I judge to be closest will win two prime tickets(blue line, 20 rolls up on the aisle) to a regular season game. Past winners will tell you I do my best to accommodate the winners request. Please only enter once. . I will listen to any feedback on how we can adjust or change the rules but for now its my rules and while there are many variables to consider, the winner has usually been pretty obvious. Also, we don't want this to be drudgery so try and have some fun with it

Like I said, Boston was the problem.

And if we were playing out millions of simulations I believe you would be correct, the desired outcome would only occur less then 1% of the time. However, we are playing out 1 season with three teams stumbling to the gate and one team playing like a Stanley Cup champ. What happened the past 80 games means nothing at all. If I started arguing about a player based on 10 games you would be screaming about sample size, spouting regression and progression to the mean and the effect of randomness in hockey. I am just saying the same thing when it comes to predicting the outcome of less then 10 games. I still don't think it will happen mostly because I don't think Boston will hold up its end. Finally, what makes sports fun for me is because its not like playing the stock market or buying and selling a business. Its not about running a million simulations and assigning probabilities based on those numbers. And just to be clear, I understand the numbers and I understand people like yourself who are consumed by the numbers. My best friend is an analytics geek and is proud to say so. I wasn't referring to people like you or him. I am talking about people who come up with random equations and made up stats and then tell me that player X never made a pass that directly led to a shot on goal because his formula consisted of (X + Y) (number of assists) and he didn't understand that everyone that had zero assists would automatically have zero passes no matter what the other variables. Same guy tells me that team Y had a 100% chance of winning a game if they went for it on fourth and 5 with two minutes left because his probability was based on years of history.

This is exactly the reason I want the Islanders to miss the playoffs regardless of whether they win the lottery. People (not meaning you specifically) keep quoting this site and others like it without no understanding of how they come up with that number. It's a cliche but a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing and a little knowledge is what a lot of these newly available numbers are. Are you seriously going to tell me that the Islanders losing two, Boston and Ottawa winning two and Detroit winning one really has only a .221% chance of happening? Its not likely but it has got to be better then a less then one percent chance. There others that can explain it better but a lot of these sites act like one outcome effects the probability of another outcome when in fact they are completely independent of one another.

It would apparently burn a year off his deal if he plays one more game with them.

Every good team has at least one player that exceeded expectations. I have no idea if the Sabres will be Larsson or Baptiste or Bailey but I will tell you that the same people that continually tell me how high they are on Pysyk going forward sing Larsson's praises. Some have even compared him to Forsberg, I know, heresy but who knows. I'm sure when Datsyuk came up there were people saying how he would be an awesome third line center but no comparison to Yzerman. You just never know who but I guarantee that there will be some surprises and some dissapointments.

What we are likely to see next year is four lines playing close to equal minutes, especially at the beginning, with no undue pressure being out on any of the kids. While I could still see a veteran centerman being brought in, I think the more likely scenario would be a veteran winger and a veteran upgrade over Gorges. For the record, I am a big fan of Larsson, expect Grigs to be traded although they may want to wait if they think playing him judicously could increase his value.

Every corporation, every business has their version of the "golden rule." Doing anything to harm the integrity of the game and any punishment is on the table. No league would allow anything close to this.

I kept hoping Carolina had a Rasmussen when I was listening without watching. Then I sat down and counted at least 6 times before leaving the room. I was going to call or text someone but didn't want to put anyone on the spot.

Not to mention he kept calling 55 Rasmussen for at least the first period(I stopped watching after that)

Yost's point was that LA would match on Tofoli but would because if that have to pass on Jones.

Exactly although I guess there are still some argument about a possible third. That and the fact he only had 22 fights in his career seems to run counter to the rep. Still a tough sob

I'd love to hear the answer but here is another one for you. How many did Gordie have in his career?

So you want to argue that it's foolish to have him lay a foundation and then be gone while at the same time arguing that he deserves credit for laying a foundation for Lindy's teams? I admit that my personal dislike for Nolan is probably coloring my opinion but the fact of the matter is that Nolan was here this year because the guy they really wanted either wasn't ready(Richardson) or wasn't available(Babcock or Tippet)

Drk, I have always like and respected your opinion. While I know we are on opposite sides here, I'd appreciate a little respect. Anyways, first, I don't buy any of this foundation stuff. He may be helping Tim weed out the players that aren't willing to work and follow rules but that is about it. Look at the last time he left. They were so grief stricken and confused they went to the conference finals the first year and the Cup finals the following year. Secondly, McEichel, Reinhart, Kane, a veteran winger, a veteran defenseman, Pysyk, that is 6 players then you have Bogosian who isn't learning anything new from Nolan and you have more then 35% pf your roster that is missing out on that foundation lesson.

What is he shaping? This team will be led by players mostly not here. Ted is gone. There is no doubt in his mind or anyone close to the situation. I have never been a fan but I feel bad that his return has sullied his reputation with some that have always been his supporters, including some of my best friends. For me, his return just confirmed what I always felt about him.

I would like to see that. While Cup winners is obviously a good example, I remember looking up some similar data regarding teams that won in the first round and it went about 50/50. I think eventually talent wins out but initially, it is more about match ups and adjustments. I remember Lindy's first two years and the team finished horribly before entering the playoffs and making a couple of runs

Ah, the old momentum myth. I have no idea how this all plays out but history has shown that how you enter the playoffs has little to do with the success you achieve

I like that but it's important to note that while most centers can play wing, very few wingers can play center.

I know what you're saying but the assumption is that Washington and Detroit wont implode so if New York continues their slide only Ottawa and Boston have to play lights out to catch them/ Again, I'm not saying its likely but who would have though it even possible a month ago?

Its still highly unlikely but an Ottawa win tonight and both Boston and Ottawa would be within 6 points with games in hand. Would it not be so Islanders to crash and burn like this?

There are few things I hate more then the blue collar, hard working rhetoric. First, Buffalo is hardly a blue collar town anymore. Second, as someone already said, its a euphemism for over achievers. Third, most people don't understand how much effort is on display when they are watching a sporting event. As I said in another thread, Cody Hodgson is said to be one of the hardest working Sabre's ever, yet few on this board would ever call him a blue collar, hard working type of hockey player

There are those (Rip Simonick for one) who will tell you that Cody is one of the hardest working guys in Sabres history. Clearly its not all about hard work.

First, I have to say that you have gotten a lot better about distinguishing what is your opinion as opposed to what is fact. For whatever its worth, this old guy appreciates that. Second, I agree with you about Mario but as Carp said, I believe if moving him brought a bona fide QB, it would not be a deal breaker. Guys like Rex think they can scheme a defense around the personnel they have. Third, I agree with Ink. Rivers isn't coming here. If anything he will want to move back home to Tennessee.

But he has been a well respected analyst for years and I don't recall him showing any bias for the Bills before. I doubt this is happening as well but why does no one ever talk about trading Mario Williams? Him and Hughes play basically the same position in Rex's defense, they still haven't restructured his deal and if there is an asset that could vommand a healthy return, he is it. Again, I'm not saying it will or even should happen, just think it's not out of the realm of possibility.