Evolving Hockey Sabres Contract Projections

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Jorcus said:

 

 I don't know if I would rather keep Samuelsson but but an argument for him is that he has only played 212 NHL games and should be coming into the best part of his development curve. The injuries have set him back and his start to this year was truly awful. He seemed to improve in fits and starts as the season went on. We were thinking he was guy to be supporting Power when in fact he has played less NHL games than Power. Not a good formula there. There is a decent chance that Sammy rounds into a much better player. I think he was one of the guys they were sending a message to about reporting to camp in shape. Playing his off wing did not help things. He would not be the first large defense man to overcome early injury trouble if it happens. Then again he may just be what he is now.

Both Byram 246 NHL games and Power 242 NHL games are right in the sweet spot of the development curve. You have to be a bit careful about letting guys go at this juncture but reality probably dictates one of them is going if not two. Another thing to think about, did any one in this group ever write we need to find a right handed D man to play with Byram?   

You gave a well thought out response.
 

I prefer keeping Samuelsson over Byram for contract and style of play reasons. I also believe that we could get a good return, especially if packaged, for Byram.

Our defense and roster need to be better shaped. Getting the right return for Byram will help on that issue. It should be noted that I do like Byram and believe that he has more upside. 

Edited Saturday at 11:09 PM by JohnC

[mjd1001]

18 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I'm good with most of those...maybe not on the Quinn and Byram numbers though.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm good with most of those...maybe not on the Quinn and Byram numbers though.

I agree with you on the Byram number but disagree with you on the Quinn number. It seems reasonable. It gives the player an opportunity to show what he is capable of without the organization being saddled with a longer termed contract. 

Assuming Quinn is not dealt in the offseason, next season is a "show me" year for him. This is an important offseason where he has to come into camp stronger and demonstrate a greater willingness to play a harder brand of hockey. 

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

We were always supposed to be winning when Tuch was on a bargain deal, we had ELCs, etc. the long form rebuild plan they sold was exactly what we said it was: economic job security 

It was always clear as day. Spend on quality vets while we take  advantage of guys on ELC'S. And as the ELC'S end sub in the home grown extensions and that's when Kulich, Savoie, and even Bensonetc will come to fill the bottom of the roster.

We really botched this one. There was a wide open window for the Sabres to really do this right and be a challenger and they botched it as bad as they've ever botched anything in the Pegula era.

I think that's why this one hurts a lot more and I hate Adams/Pegula about as much as I've hated any rivalry in Buffalo sports history.

We were right there!

 

[Pimlach]

22 hours ago, dudacek said:

Except Mule was worse defensively than Byram was.

This is not a defence of Byram, who the Sabres should not sign to the 8 by 8 deal in the OP.

It’s an attempt to point out how the concept of Samuelsson does not match the reality.

He was Dahlin’s worst partner and Power’s worst partner in xG%

Everybody uses Dahlin’s presence to hand wave Byram.

GF% Dahlin and Byram were 70%, Dahlin And Mule were 51.9%

Muel has become a poster boy for the failed rebuild.  Big contract after 57 games, injury prone, not physical, … 

I think both Byram and Muel will be moved out.  Byram is almost certainly gone.   Muel will be hard to trade, and we get to hear how hard it is to get players to come here.  

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Muel has become a poster boy for the failed rebuild.  Big contract after 57 games, injury prone, not physical, … 

I think both Byram and Muel will be moved out.  Byram is almost certainly gone.   Muel will be hard to trade, and we get to hear how hard it is to get players to come here.  

I'm mildly convinced teams will see value in Samuelsson. He's big and teams love big defensemen. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm mildly convinced teams will see value in Samuelsson. He's big and teams love big defensemen. 

Me too. He's one where you'll almost certainly see GMs hand wave his issues because "Buffalo stink"

And they might be right.

I still think Mule and futures can get you an overpaid vet from a rebuilding team.

[Archie Lee]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Me too. He's one where you'll almost certainly see GMs hand wave his issues because "Buffalo stink"

And they might be right.

I still think Mule and futures can get you an overpaid vet from a rebuilding team.

To the bolded, I was thinking the same thing. But, when I actually looked at the teams that are potentially in the "rebuilding" category, I only found one name that more or less fits the description and who also doesn't have some level of trade protection that would likely eliminate the Sabres as an option.  That player is Rasmus Ristolainen.  It even fits a little with Samuelsson's dad having the history with the Flyers and Samuelsson being from that area.  I'm not advocating for this or suggesting it is even remotely possible, but there aren't many (any) options that fit the criteria in a Samuelsson trade. 

FWIW: Risto appears to have become a much more low-event player than he was when he was here. If he didn't have the Sabre-history...

Also, this shouldn't be construed as me thinking there are no options for improving our defense.  I think there are lots of options.  I don't think we need to make a big splash.  I  think we are more in need of a different type of player (experienced, more-physical defensively), than we are in need of "better" players. 

 

[JohnC]

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Me too. He's one where you'll almost certainly see GMs hand wave his issues because "Buffalo stink"

And they might be right.

I still think Mule and futures can get you an overpaid vet from a rebuilding team.

Just maybe being moved might be the right course of action for the player. On the other hand, that doesn't mean that he can't be salvaged to the extent that he can a solid contributor here. This team has been poorly managed and constructed. I thought when he came back after being sat out due to his reluctance to support a teammate that he played solidly and consistently. I would hate to see another Sabre player dealt and play well for another team. 

[Pimlach]

7 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Just maybe being moved might be the right course of action for the player. On the other hand, that doesn't mean that he can't be salvaged to the extent that he can a solid contributor here. This team has been poorly managed and constructed. I thought when he came back after being sat out due to his reluctance to support a teammate that he played solidly and consistently. I would hate to see another Sabre player dealt and play well for another team. 

I don’t care if a player has success after he leaves Buffalo.  I just want trades that improve the team NOW.  

[JohnC]

14 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I don’t care if a player has success after he leaves Buffalo.  I just want trades that improve the team NOW.  

Eichel sure was ecstatic that he forced his way out. Was the return sufficient? I would say no. Reinhart was certainly ecstatic that he after not being signed to an extension he declined to sign a belated extension. Was the return sufficient? I would say no. I'm certainly not putting Samuelsson in the category of those elite players. But I thought that after the "non-involvement" incident which resulted in him being benched that his play improved and became consistent. 

I do like Byram. But if I had a choice between keeping him or trading Samuelsson I would prefer keeping Sammy and try to get a good return for Byram. Samuelsson has been plagued with injuries that have impaired his play. If he can become more durable, a big if, I believe that he can be a solid contributor. There is no question that the blueline has to have a better mix. However, I'm not giving up on Sammy right now as a lot of others are. Sometimes not making a deal is the best deal you can make. 

[Weave]

@thewookie1 why is it so important to you that a player leaving Buffalo doesn’t succeed elsewhere?  Why does it matter if the Sabres improve overall?

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, Weave said:

@thewookie1 why is it so important to you that a player leaving Buffalo doesn’t succeed elsewhere?  Why does it matter if the Sabres improve overall?

Until we are relevant in the league again; I'd rather not have to hear about more incredible success stories of players leaving Buffalo and their careers exploding.  That's all. Unless the player asks out, then I only wish ill will against him.

[DarthEbriate]

6 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Until we are relevant in the league again; I'd rather not have to hear about more incredible success stories of players leaving Buffalo and their careers exploding.  That's all. Unless the player asks out, then I only wish ill will against him.

Having a player ask out shouldn’t be a major problem for a franchise. There could be numerous reasons for such a thing. The issue with the Sabres is it has become systemic and rewarded.

The issue here is that instead of investigating the real issue, the owner/GM team double down on their EEE and woe-is-us ways.

The instant Eichel asked for a trade, the owner should have asked why. Why is my bordering-elite, bond fide 1C All-Star captain wanting out? And then address that issue. The issue being Adams got hired on the premise of beginning another reset around a new core. Naturally a player entering his prime, watching the general ineptitude and keyed in with players/friends around the league is going to say “enough”.

But instead of thinking in terms of hockey and building around one of the most talented young cores in the league, Pegula chose EEE and futures, and being the laughingstock of the league. 

[Weave]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Until we are relevant in the league again; I'd rather not have to hear about more incredible success stories of players leaving Buffalo and their careers exploding.  That's all. Unless the player asks out, then I only wish ill will against him.

At the expense of the Sabres getting immediately better?  That is what the “cutting off your nose to spite your face” analogy was made for.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

At the expense of the Sabres getting immediately better?  That is what the “cutting off your nose to spite your face” analogy was made for.

Well what exactly are you proposing because I'm sure as hell not doing another rebuild or trading our top players for grinders

[Weave]

18 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Well what exactly are you proposing because I'm sure as hell not doing another rebuild or trading our top players for grinders

You reacted with a negative emoji to the following: 

“I don’t care if a player has success after he leaves Buffalo.  I just want trades that improve the team NOW.”

That tells me you are more concerned with a player doing well outside of Buffalo than Buffalo improving from the trade.  If any given trade makes Buffalo better, why would anyone care that the player leaving Buffalo plays well?  All that matters is Buffalo gets better.

[thewookie1]

32 minutes ago, Weave said:

You reacted with a negative emoji to the following: 

“I don’t care if a player has success after he leaves Buffalo.  I just want trades that improve the team NOW.”

That tells me you are more concerned with a player doing well outside of Buffalo than Buffalo improving from the trade.  If any given trade makes Buffalo better, why would anyone care that the player leaving Buffalo plays well?  All that matters is Buffalo gets better.

I was disagreeing that I don't care about the players we trade having success but not about making trades for immediate success.

As such my worries won't alleviate until we are good again which is what I said prior but I guess it was misinterpreted. 

Edited 5 hours ago by thewookie1