2025 NHL Entry Draft Thread, Sabres Draft 9th

[pi2000]

If you keep the pick at 9 you unquestionably take BPA.

Sure, "size and grit" are part of the BPA equation, but passing on a much more productive player just because you have similar stature players in your pipeline is a mistake.  

Past the 1st round perhaps you tune your BPA algo such that size/grit are a bit more valuable, but don't over do it.

[ponokasabre]

Wow if our draft came away Martin with 9 and Nestrasil at 2 that would go a long way towards upping the compete level of this team

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, ponokasabre said:

Wow if our draft came away Martin with 9 and Nestrasil at 2 that would go a long way towards upping the compete level of this team

In five years.

[Weave]

3 minutes ago, Eleven said:

In five years.

Maybe.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

In five years.

Well if we had actually drafted well in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, we wouldn't be ***** now. It's better to draft well because 5yrs will come regardless. 

[LGR4GM]

So Brady Martin might be 6'2" ... combine gonna be real interesting

[ponokasabre]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

So Brady Martin might be 6'2" ... combine gonna be real interesting

Ya I just don't think he gets by picks 6-8, like someone is going to take him in that range I think

[LGR4GM]

Just now, ponokasabre said:

Ya I just don't think he gets by picks 6-8, like someone is going to take him in that range I think

That's okay Carter Bear is better impo.

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Well if we had actually drafted well in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, we wouldn't be ***** now. It's better to draft well because 5yrs will come regardless. 

I know that draft day is Christmas for you, and I think that's cool, but they need to trade the pick.

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I know that draft day is Christmas for you, and I think that's cool, but they need to trade the pick.

Totally irrelevant to this thread and to 5yrs from now. 

Ftr, I'm already on record for saying they should trade this pick for immediate help. 

Edited Friday at 11:03 PM by LGR4GM

[JoeSchmoe]

8 hours ago, pi2000 said:

If you keep the pick at 9 you unquestionably take BPA.

Sure, "size and grit" are part of the BPA equation, but passing on a much more productive player just because you have similar stature players in your pipeline is a mistake.  

Past the 1st round perhaps you tune your BPA algo such that size/grit are a bit more valuable, but don't over do it.

I remember when Buddy Nix said you gotta take the best player available. We had Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson already, but Nix was a BPA guy. So we took CJ Spiller. Given there wasn't room for 3 feature backs we traded Marshawn for a 4th round pick and a conditional pick. But essentially we traded out 9th overall pick, for the next year's 4th round pick and lost Lynch in the process. Meanwhile we were deficient all through the lineup at every position besides RB.

So, given our organizational strength at LHD and undersized F's, I think we need to draft for need, especially since there are no surefire franchise changing players in this draft at 9th.

[Taro T]

19 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I remember when Buddy Nix said you gotta take the best player available. We had Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson already, but Nix was a BPA guy. So we took CJ Spiller. Given there wasn't room for 3 feature backs we traded Marshawn for a 4th round pick and a conditional pick. But essentially we traded out 9th overall pick, for the next year's 4th round pick and lost Lynch in the process. Meanwhile we were deficient all through the lineup at every position besides RB.

So, given our organizational strength at LHD and undersized F's, I think we need to draft for need, especially since there are no surefire franchise changing players in this draft at 9th.

Yes, there currently is depth at LHD.  But IF they trade away Samuelsson and 1 of Power or Byram, is that still the case?

And, even if they don't trade their NHL LHD depth away this year, will next season's GM still agree that it shouldn't be traded away?

Personally like the idea of taking BPA with the 1st & 2nd round picks and then go for filling in gaps in the pipeline with the rest of the lottery tickets.  (And ALWAYS draft a goalie every year.  They're way too hard to evaluate at 18.)  And like the idea of trading the pick for help TODAY even better.  😉 

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Totally irrelevant to this thread and to 5yrs from now. 

Ftr, I'm already on record for saying they should trade this pick for immediate help. 

Would you trade 9 for Rossi? 

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Would you trade 9 for Rossi? 

Hmm... yes. 

[DarthEbriate]

11 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Would you trade 9 for Rossi? 

My operating assumption is: GMKA is my GM forever, which means I'm still on the Power timeline. When he turns 25, he'll be good, possibly very good and that's the key to everything. (The Sabres can make the playoffs before Power is 25, but that's when expectations of contending can begin.)

In the next two seasons (Power age 23 and age 24), I don't want to be bridging Rossi at 5+ or giving him low-end 1C money long-term (7+). I can get through those two seasons with some combination of Kulich/Östlund/Helenius and McLeod in middle-6 roles. My priority for the money is Tuch's long-term deal and that top-4 RHD for Power. I would take the #9 and five years of low-cost certainty and one of Martone, Hagens, McQueen (if health checks out, if not-then not in the 1st round), Desnoyers, Martin, Bear, Frondell, Eklund, O'Brien, in that order).

Ultimately, I say no.

However, I would gladly trade #9 for a legitimate top-4 RHD in his prime with term.

[Mr Peabody]

34 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

My operating assumption is: GMKA is my GM forever, which means I'm still on the Power timeline. When he turns 25, he'll be good, possibly very good and that's the key to everything. (The Sabres can make the playoffs before Power is 25, but that's when expectations of contending can begin.)

In the next two seasons (Power age 23 and age 24), I don't want to be bridging Rossi at 5+ or giving him low-end 1C money long-term (7+). I can get through those two seasons with some combination of Kulich/Östlund/Helenius and McLeod in middle-6 roles. My priority for the money is Tuch's long-term deal and that top-4 RHD for Power. I would take the #9 and five years of low-cost certainty and one of Martone, Hagens, McQueen (if health checks out, if not-then not in the 1st round), Desnoyers, Martin, Bear, Frondell, Eklund, O'Brien, in that order).

Ultimately, I say no.

However, I would gladly trade #9 for a legitimate top-4 RHD in his prime with term.

Serious question for you or anyone with an opinion on Power.  Is there an NHL comparable within the last 20 or so years you feel Power will grow into?  I keep coming back to Tyler Meyers given the size and temperament - and I don’t mean that as a negative. 

[DarthEbriate]

15 minutes ago, Mr Peabody said:

Serious question for you or anyone with an opinion on Power.  Is there an NHL comparable within the last 20 or so years you feel Power will grow into?  I keep coming back to Tyler Meyers given the size and temperament - and I don’t mean that as a negative. 

I remember saying I think he can be an Alex Pietrangelo. Very good player and has won the Cup twice. Lots of Norris votes but never a finalist. It's probably been a year or so since I said that, and I still think that's who he can be.

Edit: But note, Pietrangelo has gotten lots of PP1 time over the years, which Power is only going to get if Dahlin is injured. Power's drawback (apart from inability to tie up sticks, clear the crease, etc.) is his contract is paying him like someone who collects PP points. He has 1 career PPG thus far in 242 games.

Edited 9 hours ago by DarthEbriate

[Taro T]

41 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I remember saying I think he can be an Alex Pietrangelo. Very good player and has won the Cup twice. Lots of Norris votes but never a finalist. It's probably been a year or so since I said that, and I still think that's who he can be.

Edit: But note, Pietrangelo has gotten lots of PP1 time over the years, which Power is only going to get if Dahlin is injured. Power's drawback (apart from inability to tie up sticks, clear the crease, etc.) is his contract is paying him like someone who collects PP points. He has 1 career PPG thus far in 242 games.

But, (and realize that at this point there are other issues wrt Power, so please realize this is only addressing the following point and not all the other issues) IF the player WOULD be a x point player but for the fact he can't get ahead of somebody that is elite at the PP (and as bad as the PP is, without Dahlin it would be significanltly worse because his ability to keep the puck in the zone and his passing is elite) WHY say he's not worth what he'd get were he not "blocked" 😉  from the PP?

IF one is inclined to only want to pay for what a player can bring in his place in the pecking order, then it's pretty much guaranteed that unless you have guys on ELCs, you will never have more than 4 top line F's and 1 top pairing D because that's all you can squeeze onto the top PP.  

Especially if the team has cap space, shouldn't we want more than just 1 D that's excellent running the BL on the PP and more than just 2 D that are excellent PKers?  And if you have an extra guy that can handle 25 minutes per night (like when they hit their primes, the Sabres current roster has 3 of those on it) then you only have to find 45 minutes of time (tops) from the other 3 guys and you should be able to cover that fairly inexpensively.  (Samuelsson not playing up to his contract being a monkey wrench in that calculus.)

(Not sure why THIS particular post warranted this particular reply; it's a fairly common theme here.  NOT calling you out on this, it just seemed a logical spot to ask the Q.)

 

[dudacek]

I'm getting a vibe that James Hagens is dropping like a stone.

Any chance he's there when Buffalo picks, and if he is, should we be happy to take him?

I get the sense he's more Casey Mittelstadt than Matt Barzal, but I guess someone in that range seems like decent value at #9.

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm getting a vibe that James Hagens is dropping like a stone.

Any chance he's there when Buffalo picks, and if he is, should we be happy to take him?

I get the sense he's more Casey Mittelstadt than Matt Barzal, but I guess someone in that range seems like decent value at #9.

No chance he gets to 9. 7, maybe. 

James Hagens is far better than Mittelstadt. 

At least imo

[dudacek]

50 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No chance he gets to 9. 7, maybe. 

James Hagens is far better than Mittelstadt. 

At least imo

Not possible these 8 guys go ahead of him: Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Desnoyer, Martin, OBrien, Frondell, McQueen?

Or that somebody really wants a D, or really loves Eklund or Bear?

 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not possible these 8 guys go ahead of him: Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Desnoyer, Martin, OBrien, Frondell, McQueen?

Or that somebody really wants a D, or really loves Eklund or Bear?

I think,  Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Desnoyers are likely to go before him but Martin, Frondell seem unlikely. McQueen will depend on medical. Bear won't. Eklund won't. Hagens is gonna go 4-6 in all likelihood but... let's say you're right. At 9, you take Hagens and run.