odd man out

[Hank]

49 minutes ago, Hank said:

I have a brother in law who thinks once you have an opinion on something if you change your mind it makes you a hypocrite. He doesn't grasp that educated, intelligent people make opinions based on observations and available information, and with more observations and information opinions can change. He also has an eighth grade education, has never held a steady job and constantly asked my wife for money. That's who you remind me of when it comes to Mitts. You've never liked him and you never will, production be damned. 

I just reread this. I did not mean to imply you're unintelligent, I know you are. Apologies if it came across that way. I just find your seemingly unwavering stance (at least to me) a bit curious. 

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I think Benson is a lock and Mitts is pretty iffy due to the likely cost to keep him (which I think is inflated relative to his actual value).

 

49 minutes ago, Hank said:

I have a brother in law who thinks once you have an opinion on something if you change your mind it makes you a hypocrite. He doesn't grasp that educated, intelligent people make opinions based on observations and available information, and with more observations and information opinions can change. He also has an eighth grade education, has never held a steady job and constantly asked my wife for money. That's who you remind me of when it comes to Mitts. You've never liked him and you never will, production be damned. 

I understand both points. Only want to add that GMKA is very close to his team. He will reward his own if it’s warranted…it is his preference to build from within. So what I say next might be irrelevant. 
 

With all of that said, I lean toward Freeman’s thought. Casey just turned 25. Buying out a bunch of his prime UFA years will be very expensive.  Can’t that production be replaced with spreading it out with the touted prospects making their way to the show in the next couple of years? I think so. With Tage healthy and Cozens going and the commitment that has already made to each, putting Casey on a top six wing role or 3C isn’t a good use of cap dollars. 

Yes, 60-70 points is a lot and spreading out the production of 60-70 points to guys on their ELC is a risk. But there’s a lot of high end talent coming here soon.  I’ll take that risk along with the corresponding cap flexibility (to also help cover said production…with a lot of extra dollars to improve the team offensively & elsewhere at the same time).  
 

Yes I realize this won’t be popular right now.  

[Hank]

8 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

 

I understand both points. Only want to add that GMKA is very close to his team. He will reward his own if it’s warranted…it is his preference to build from within. So what I say next might be irrelevant. 
 

With all of that said, I lean toward Freeman’s thought. Casey just turned 25. Buying out a bunch of his prime UFA years will be very expensive.  Can’t that production be replaced with spreading it out with the touted prospects making their way to the show in the next couple of years? I think so. With Tage healthy and Cozens going and the commitment that has already made to each, putting Casey on a top six wing role or 3C isn’t a good use of cap dollars. 

Yes, 60-70 points is a lot and spreading out the production of 60-70 points to guys on their ELC is a risk. But there’s a lot of high end talent coming here soon.  I’ll take that risk along with the corresponding cap flexibility (to also help cover said production…with a lot of extra dollars to improve the team offensively & elsewhere at the same time).  
 

Yes I realize this won’t be popular right now.  

A big reason for Mitts improved play, in my opinion, is he's matured physically. He's able to maintain possession of the puck. Less turnovers and stronger on the boards. Depends on his ask and what we could get for him for me, but I don't think the kids could make up what he currently provides (more than just points) next year and maybe the year after. 

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Mitts is pretty iffy due to the likely cost to keep him (which I think is inflated relative to his actual value).

Perhaps.  I hope you're wrong.  I've said it previously:  I love him as 3C (assuming Cozens is 2C and Tage is 1C), and for the precise reason we're seeing right now:  When you lose a top center you bump him up and the top line keeps producing.  Also, he is probably our most physical center.  Tage is huge but he uses his size with finesse.  Cozens plays a physical game in terms of initiating hits, but Casey is able to withstand the checks of opponents and still making high quality plays, and to me that's a more valuable skill.

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

 

I understand both points. Only want to add that GMKA is very close to his team. He will reward his own if it’s warranted…it is his preference to build from within. So what I say next might be irrelevant. 
 

With all of that said, I lean toward Freeman’s thought. Casey just turned 25. Buying out a bunch of his prime UFA years will be very expensive.  Can’t that production be replaced with spreading it out with the touted prospects making their way to the show in the next couple of years? I think so. With Tage healthy and Cozens going and the commitment that has already made to each, putting Casey on a top six wing role or 3C isn’t a good use of cap dollars. 

Yes, 60-70 points is a lot and spreading out the production of 60-70 points to guys on their ELC is a risk. But there’s a lot of high end talent coming here soon.  I’ll take that risk along with the corresponding cap flexibility (to also help cover said production…with a lot of extra dollars to improve the team offensively & elsewhere at the same time).  
 

Yes I realize this won’t be popular right now.  

Provided the contract doesn't have a NMC (or at minimum not a full NMC) am perfectly fine with them giving Mittelstadt a LT deal for what he's showing to be worth.  (And hoped they'd get a deal worked out this past off-season after they got the 2 D signed.)

This team has hemorrhaged high end talent for years.  Am very tired of watching it move off the team to be replaced by guys on ELCs, prospects, draft picks, and Sobotkas.  Adams has stated loudly and for a long time that the reason the team hasn't spent money on UFAs and has stayed far from the cap was to be able to sign their own good players and keep them in the fold.  Well, this guy was home grown, the team went through a lot of growing pains with him and should now be looking to keep him in the fold now that he's approaching his prime.

My 2 cents, YMMV.

[Porous Five Hole]

Just now, Hank said:

A big reason for Mitts improved play, in my opinion, is he's matured physically. He's able to maintain possession of the puck. Less turnovers and stronger on the boards. Depends on his ask and what we could get for him for me, but I don't think the kids could make up what he currently provides (more than just points) next year and maybe the year after. 

Yea I feel that. The outlook for me is locking up Mitts for five years and getting his solid 70 pt production at a substantial UFA cost isn’t the best long term plan. It’s best for the next two years, but is it the best for the next five? That’s really murky. He might be blocking guys who can replicate that production.

I’ll reiterate that no doubt investing in Mitts is for sure the best plan to make the playoffs asap. That might be the goal for some.
But getting Mitts to re-sign past his last RFA year is going to be very expensive and the internal pool is deep. I’m looking much more long term than playoffs asap when I consider Mitts next deal. 

[Porous Five Hole]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Provided the contract doesn't have a NMC (or at minimum not a full NMC) am perfectly fine with them giving Mittelstadt a LT deal for what he's showing to be worth.  (And hoped they'd get a deal worked out this past off-season after they got the 2 D signed.)

This team has hemorrhaged high end talent for years.  Am very tired of watching it move off the team to be replaced by guys on ELCs, prospects, draft picks, and Sobotkas.  Adams has stated loudly and for a long time that the reason the team hasn't spent money on UFAs and has stayed far from the cap was to be able to sign their own good players and keep them in the fold.  Well, this guy was home grown, the team went through a lot of growing pains with him and should now be looking to keep him in the fold now that he's approaching his prime.

My 2 cents, YMMV.

This is hard to argue. Mitts is earning it. I’m just looking at five years from now and I also expect the majority of the fanbase to hate my opinion. I just think his production can be equaled with a combination of Benson, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, and maybe others…within two years.  And at a deep discount to buying out Mitts upcoming UFA years.  

[Hank]

9 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Yea I feel that. The outlook for me is locking up Mitts for five years and getting his solid 70 pt production at a substantial UFA cost isn’t the best long term plan. It’s best for the next two years, but is it the best for the next five? That’s really murky. He might be blocking guys who can replicate that production.

I’ll reiterate that no doubt investing in Mitts is for sure the best plan to make the playoffs asap. That might be the goal for some.
But getting Mitts to re-sign past his last RFA year is going to be very expensive and the internal pool is deep. I’m looking much more long term than playoffs asap when I consider Mitts next deal. 

The only thing I would add to this is I believe Mitts is 25, so locking hi up for five years takes him through his prime. 

[Taro T]

9 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

This is hard to argue. Mitts is earning it. I’m just looking at five years from now and I also expect the majority of the fanbase to hate my opinion. I just think his production can be equaled with a combination of Benson, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, and maybe others…within two years.  And at a deep discount to buying out Mitts upcoming UFA years.  

Don't believe as much of the fanbase will/does hate your opinion as you expect.  Those of us that saw positives in Mittelstadt's game when things weren't going great for him were significantly in the minority and he was a whipping boy for many going back years.  And that still carries through to this day to a degree.  The line Mittelstadt has been on has seen more 5v5 ice time and has been listed by the Sabres as the 2nd or 1st line for the majority of the season, with Cozens' line 1 below that (there were a couple of weeks when that's been flipped, but for the most part that's been the case) but people still refer to him as the 3C.  LT he might be the 3C, but not seeing much of that this year to date.  

It's like the old adage, get labeled as an early riser and you can show up at noon whenever you want with no one noticing.  The player Casey Mittelstadt was coming out of college is not the same player he is today.  And, it is somewhat frustrating that people don't want to lock up his peak years because of their own frustration at watching him get to this point. 

Really do believe that your position that the Sabres are better off without him at what he's likely to cost by trying to get that production replaced by kids still quite a way from their peaks is more popular than you realize.  And also believe if the Sabres get rid of players prematurely right when they're about to enter their primes that they'll be doing exactly what the Bills did for 17 years.  Nope, we can't afford Winfield; draft his replacement.  Nope, we can't afford Peters; try to draft his replacement.  Nope, we can't afford xxx; ...  Lather, rinse, repeat, never win more than 9 games.  Realizing that the NHL cap is significantly different from the NFL cap; but teams find ways to live for years with strong teams while skirting the cap, don't see a reason the Sabres won't be able to do so keeping a guy like Mittelstadt in the plans until somebody is actually ready to replace him.

[French Collection]

53 minutes ago, Taro T said:

keeping a guy like Mittelstadt in the plans until somebody is actually ready to replace him.

Key point. It will be quite a while before Kulich, Savoie, Östlund or Wahlberg are ready to be 2 or 3C. You have one now, keep him, especially as he is entering his prime and wants to be in Buffalo.

I think Cozens finds his game soon and gives DG the option of having him at 3C or 2RW. With TNT and Quinn back, 3 scoring lines will be tougher for other teams to match up.

Even if Mitts gets signed long term and prospects push him down, there are trades to be made. I try not to get hung up on paying a 3C $7M. A 3C can be top 6 in ice time due to special team play, situational deployment and OT.

The cap is going up, it will still have to be managed, but until there is looming crunch I am not losing sleep over it.

[nfreeman]

12 hours ago, Hank said:

I have a brother in law who thinks once you have an opinion on something if you change your mind it makes you a hypocrite. He doesn't grasp that educated, intelligent people make opinions based on observations and available information, and with more observations and information opinions can change. He also has an eighth grade education, has never held a steady job and constantly asked my wife for money. That's who you remind me of when it comes to Mitts. You've never liked him and you never will, production be damned. 

11 hours ago, Hank said:

I just reread this. I did not mean to imply you're unintelligent, I know you are. Apologies if it came across that way. I just find your seemingly unwavering stance (at least to me) a bit curious. 

Thanks for your follow-up here.  I appreciate you (and everyone else here) making sure to keep it friendly.

Anyway, I don't think my stance on Mitts has been "unwavering."  I think he's developed into a good player -- and there was a real risk a few years ago that he would simply wash out -- and in the abstract I would like to keep him on the Sabres. 

The problem, of course, is the cost to do so, which unavoidably needs to be evaluated in the context of his actual value as well as the context of the Sabres' cap situation.  He's a center who last year had 15 goals and 59 pts.  This year he's on pace for about the same # of goals and closer to 75 pts.  He just turned 25 and he's an RFA after this year.  Locking up a player with that kind of profile will probably require something like 7 years x $7MM per year.

When I watch Mitts, I see a good player who adds value in a supporting role, but not a player that I'd want to give that kind of contract, which is the kind of contract I think needs to be reserved for franchise cornerstones.  Especially in the last couple of weeks, I still see way too much of "bad Casey" -- i.e. poor puck decisions that result in O-zone turnovers and squandered opportunities.  I also think in most cases a forward who only scores 15 goals or so isn't worth that kind of contract. 

And we shouldn't kid ourselves about the consequences of giving Casey 7 years x $7MM -- doing so probably means you're not able to keep someone like Quinn or JJP or Benson when it's time to lock them up long-term.

If Mitts would agree to, say, $5MM x 5 years?  Sure -- sign him up.  But I don't think that's going to happen.  Since Mitts has been eligible to sign an extension for 5 months now and it hasn't happened, I'd guess that he's asking for substantially more than KA is willing to agree to.

We'll see.  Hopefully I'll be wrong about him and he'll make it clear that he's too good not to lock up at a high price.

 

[Hank]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Thanks for your follow-up here.  I appreciate you (and everyone else here) making sure to keep it friendly.

Anyway, I don't think my stance on Mitts has been "unwavering."  I think he's developed into a good player -- and there was a real risk a few years ago that he would simply wash out -- and in the abstract I would like to keep him on the Sabres. 

The problem, of course, is the cost to do so, which unavoidably needs to be evaluated in the context of his actual value as well as the context of the Sabres' cap situation.  He's a center who last year had 15 goals and 59 pts.  This year he's on pace for about the same # of goals and closer to 75 pts.  He just turned 25 and he's an RFA after this year.  Locking up a player with that kind of profile will probably require something like 7 years x $7MM per year.

When I watch Mitts, I see a good player who adds value in a supporting role, but not a player that I'd want to give that kind of contract, which is the kind of contract I think needs to be reserved for franchise cornerstones.  Especially in the last couple of weeks, I still see way too much of "bad Casey" -- i.e. poor puck decisions that result in O-zone turnovers and squandered opportunities.  I also think in most cases a forward who only scores 15 goals or so isn't worth that kind of contract. 

And we shouldn't kid ourselves about the consequences of giving Casey 7 years x $7MM -- doing so probably means you're not able to keep someone like Quinn or JJP or Benson when it's time to lock them up long-term.

If Mitts would agree to, say, $5MM x 5 years?  Sure -- sign him up.  But I don't think that's going to happen.  Since Mitts has been eligible to sign an extension for 5 months now and it hasn't happened, I'd guess that he's asking for substantially more than KA is willing to agree to.

We'll see.  Hopefully I'll be wrong about him and he'll make it clear that he's too good not to lock up at a high price.

 

I think we're more in agreement than not, especially on not going past five years. Definitely wouldn't give him a NTC. I'd prefer to keep him if I was Adams, but I'd also be looking at what I could get for him in a trade. 

[Doohickie]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

Really do believe that your position that the Sabres are better off without him at what he's likely to cost by trying to get that production replaced by kids still quite a way from their peaks is more popular than you realize.  And also believe if the Sabres get rid of players prematurely right when they're about to enter their primes that they'll be doing exactly what the Bills did for 17 years.  Nope, we can't afford Winfield; draft his replacement.  Nope, we can't afford Peters; try to draft his replacement.  Nope, we can't afford xxx; ...  Lather, rinse, repeat, never win more than 9 games.  Realizing that the NHL cap is significantly different from the NFL cap; but teams find ways to live for years with strong teams while skirting the cap, don't see a reason the Sabres won't be able to do so keeping a guy like Mittelstadt in the plans until somebody is actually ready to replace him.

A few thoughts on this:

First- Reinhart.  I understand conditions were different when he was moved, but at this point he's 12th in league scoring, 2nd in goals, 2nd in PPGs.  He's at his peak and the Sabres missed out on that.

Now Casey is on that same verge... yeah, let's get rid of him.  Right.  That would be stupid.  UPL is in a similar spot to where Ullmark was when he left.  He will be RFA this season.  Again, I think it'd be folly to jettison him just as he's coming into his own. 

If it was a mistake to do that with the Bills, it's doubly so for the Sabres, since draft picks are not NHL ready when they're drafted.  College football is essentially the NFL's farm system and players have matured to NFL level readiness (or very close to it) by the time an NFL team drafts them.

I like to think Kevyn is smart enough to balance the talent he already has with the upcoming talent and yes, bringing in outside talent.  But I think he knows to keep NHLers that are hitting their prime.

As far as cap manipulation goes, I think when Kevyn emptied the cupboard and went with the youth movement, he figured out ways to get to the cap floor.  Granted that's a much easier proposition, but part of why he kept the payroll low was to prepare for the period the Sabres are now entering.  I think he will be able to work the cap ceiling with similar skill, but the proof will be in the doing.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Doohickie

[Doohickie]

3 hours ago, French Collection said:

Even if Mitts gets signed long term and prospects push him down, there are trades to be made. I try not to get hung up on paying a 3C $7M. A 3C can be top 6 in ice time due to special team play, situational deployment and OT.

And really, even if Tage and Cozens slot above him, Mitts is much more to this team than a 3C.  If I had to rate them as centers, I think Tage is 1A, Mitts is 1B, and Cozens is 2.  The way they've been deployed though is if Tage is healthy, the put Mitts on the 3rd line, and depending on the wingers he has, the Sabres then have 3 legit scoring lines, or two good scoring lines and an excellent 2-way line.

And in terms of ranking them on "2-way-ness" Casey comes in ahead of both Cozens and Tage at the present moment.  He's reaching his peak and has shown himself to be perhaps the most versatile player in the lineup.  It would be folly not to keep him.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

A few thoughts on this:

First- Reinhart.  I understand conditions were different when he was moved, but at this point he's 12th in league scoring, 2nd in goals, 2nd in PPGs.  He's at his peak and the Sabres missed out on that.

Now Casey is on that same verge... yeah, let's get rid of him.  Right.  That would be stupid.  UPL is in a similar spot to where Ullmark was when he left.  He will be RFA this season.  Again, I think it'd be folly to jettison him just as he's coming into his own. 

If it was a mistake to do that with the Bills, it's doubly so for the Sabres, since draft picks are not NHL ready when their drafted.  College football is essentially the NFL's farm system and players have matured to NFL level readiness (or very close to it) by the time an NFL team drafts them.

I like to think Kevyn is smart enough to balance the talent he already has with the upcoming talent and yes, bringing in outside talent.  But I think he knows to keep NHLers that are hitting their prime.

As far as cap manipulation goes, I think when Kevyn emptied the cupboard and went with the youth movement, he figured out ways to get to the cap floor.  Granted that's a much easier proposition, but part of why he kept the payroll low was to prepare for the period the Sabres are now entering.  I think he will be able to work the cap ceiling with similar skill, but the proof will be in the doing.

To the bolded, yes he did.  BUT he had a glorious opportunity to convert some of that ridiculously large amount of cap space into assets that would still have value today.  For 2 years, the Sabres were scraping the cap floor, but they never sold any of that space to other teams.  That was such a huge waste of assets because the day the RS ends all that cap space vanishes; it's day old news, there is no value remaining.  Even if he only got a couple of extra 6th round picks which have very little value themselves, he could have used those as chips to help move up in the draft or to try to hit a couple of late round HRs.

While, on the whole, like the job Adams has done, that is near the top of the moves (or lack thereof) that are completely exasperating.

[nfreeman]

17 minutes ago, Taro T said:

To the bolded, yes he did.  BUT he had a glorious opportunity to convert some of that ridiculously large amount of cap space into assets that would still have value today.  For 2 years, the Sabres were scraping the cap floor, but they never sold any of that space to other teams.  That was such a huge waste of assets because the day the RS ends all that cap space vanishes; it's day old news, there is no value remaining.  Even if he only got a couple of extra 6th round picks which have very little value themselves, he could have used those as chips to help move up in the draft or to try to hit a couple of late round HRs.

While, on the whole, like the job Adams has done, that is near the top of the moves (or lack thereof) that are completely exasperating.

I generally am a TP defender, but I would guess that the lack of cap space deals is because TP hasn't been interested in burning more cash on the Sabres than he currently is (which I expect is a considerable amount).

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

To the bolded, yes he did.  BUT he had a glorious opportunity to convert some of that ridiculously large amount of cap space into assets that would still have value today.  For 2 years, the Sabres were scraping the cap floor, but they never sold any of that space to other teams.  That was such a huge waste of assets because the day the RS ends all that cap space vanishes; it's day old news, there is no value remaining.  Even if he only got a couple of extra 6th round picks which have very little value themselves, he could have used those as chips to help move up in the draft or to try to hit a couple of late round HRs.

While, on the whole, like the job Adams has done, that is near the top of the moves (or lack thereof) that are completely exasperating.

My stress level was very low today, until you brought this up.

I think there were deals to get more than a 6th rounder. When the Leafs unloaded Marleau to the Canes they gave up a first rounder. I know that was a 19/20 deal but I am using that as an example of the value of cap space.

Edited November 30, 2023 by French Collection

[Norcal]

Olofsson working on that trade value like a good soldier

 

I think Vic understands the assignment 

[Taro T]

54 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I generally am a TP defender, but I would guess that the lack of cap space deals is because TP hasn't been interested in burning more cash on the Sabres than he currently is (which I expect is a considerable amount).

That is certainly possible.  But IF Pegula really does want to 'win multiple Stanley Cups' (or whatever the exact quote was), dropping a few $MM the last couple of years would've gone a long way to helping make THAT dream a reality.

With all the money that's been spent on facilities and failed coaches/GMs, it would seem to be a drop in the bucket overall.  (And totally get not wanting to spend right after the lockdowns were easing; but by trade deadline day in '22 concerns about another lockdown and the corresponding pressures on cashflow shouldn't have been a major issue.)  How much more does this team end up worth if they win Cups in '25 and '26. (Strictly a hypothetical, not suggesting that picking up some useless vets to land some good picks makes that happen; but it's more likely with more assets to work towards it than what that unspent cap is worth today.)

[Jorcus]

To talk about the future of Casey M. you have to keep the current team philosophy in perspective. One thing Don Granato is good about is explaining his view on things. During an interview he commented on the need to develop younger players quicker due to NHL salary cap constraints. Given the Power and Dahlin signings I think going forward they are going to identify who they want for the long term at an early age and hope at the end of the day those end up looking like good deals. 

Where does that leave Casey? He does one thing extreamly well. He can gain and maintain puck possesion. He might be one of the best in the NHL at doing that. Some times the problem is what comes next. At times he overhandles the puck or worse makes soft backward passes that get picked off and leaves everyone scrambling back to the defensive zone. I will say that there is much less of that this year than there was at this time last year. Many Sabres are good at instinctive east west passing Casey is not one of them. He is much better as a direct down the ice player go get the puck and find an open man. The other thing I would like to see more of is shooting the puck without hesitation. He can't just seem to let one fly without thinking about it. So there is the biggest issue going against him, goal scoring. If you look around the NHL you are not going to find many first or second line centers that don't score in at least once in every 4 games. Tonight will be his 300th game. It's pretty rare that we don't know what a player is with that many games played. He could pop one day and have a 30 goal year but it would probably be a one off.  I have to give him credit for the growth in his game but I can't see giving him a big long term contract. Hopefully it won't take that much to keep him around a few more years.