Sabres Long-term Cap situation

[GASabresIUFAN]

The discussions about acquiring Hellebuyck or Pesce as one year rentals and whether Bush was dumped to help facilitate such an acquisition made me want to look to see if we could reasonably afford to sign Pesce or Hellebuyck long-term.  The answer on Helle was no and I don’t think KA would have an interest.  On the other hand, I do think we might be able to swing re-signing Pesce if there was a mutual interest.

Here is the math.  The Sabres have only 11 players (8F, 2D and 1G) under contract for 2024/25 (including Rousek and Levi) for a cap hit of 42 million.  Assuming KA re-signs Dahlin (8 x 10.5), Power (4 x 6) and Krebs (3x3) and the following at least 3 kids make the team  (I’m figuring Johnson, Kulich and Savoie), that would bring the roster to 11F, 5D and 1G for 64.3 million.  Mitts’ new contract would be the biggest internal question.  If Mitts would return for 3 years @ 5.7 to 6 per season, that would leave plenty of money to given Pesce a new contract. 

Edited August 22, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The discussions about acquiring Hellebuyck or Pesce as one year rentals and whether Bush was dumped to help facilitate such an acquisition made me want to look to see if we could reasonably afford to sign Pesce or Hellebuyck long-term.  The answer on Helle was no and I don’t think KA would have an interest.  On the other hand, I do think we might be able to swing re-signing Pesce if there was a mutual interest.

Here is the math.  The Sabres have only 11 players (8F, 2D and 1G) under contract for 2024/25 (including Rousek and Levi) for a cap hit of 42 million.  Assuming KA re-signs Dahlin (8 x 10.5), Power (4 x 6) and Krebs (3x3) and the following at least 3 kids make the team  (I’m figuring Johnson, Kulich and Savoie), that would bring the roster to 11F, 5D and 1G for 64.3 million.  Mitts’ new contract would be the biggest internal question.  If Mitts would return for 3 years @ 5.7 to 6 per season, that would leave plenty of money to given Pesce a new contract. 

1. Power either gets a bridge or long term, I'm not playing with the fire created with a 4 year deal.

2. My target contract would be 6x7mil, anything less is great.

7mil is about the max we can go and 6 years is the max time due to him being 30 when the contract starts.

 

[RochesterExpat]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 If Mitts would return for 3 years @ 5.7 to 6 per season

I just want to watch this thread to read everyone’s almost assuredly reasonable, thoughtful and friendly takes on this contract value.

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

2. My target contract would be 6x7mil, anything less is great.

7mil is about the max we can go and 6 years is the max time due to him being 30 when the contract starts.

I assume this is for Pesce.  5 years is probably the max term.  The $ will depend on how he plays but 6 per year is sufficient.

3 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

I just want to watch this thread to read everyone’s almost assuredly reasonable, thoughtful and friendly takes on this contract value.

He had 59 points last season.  100k per point is the in the ballpark if he has a similar season this coming year.  

[RochesterExpat]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He had 59 points last season.  100k per point is the in the ballpark if he has a similar season this coming year.

I agree with the reasoning. I just don’t think others will as much.

[Doohickie]

13 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If Mitts would return for 3 years @ 5.7 to 6 per season

I just want to watch this thread to read everyone’s almost assuredly reasonable, thoughtful and friendly takes on this contract value.

I don't think Adams gives him that much.  More like 5, but what do I know?  That's just a gut feel reaction.

[RochesterExpat]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I don't think Adams gives him that much.  More like 5, but what do I know?  That's just a gut feel reaction.

I think it will be $5x4 because it gets him to the magic “he’s 29 and therefore isn’t 30 yet” next contract and it syncs nicely with a bridge deal for one of the younger guys (JJP, Benson, Savoie, Kulich, etc).

[Doohickie]

I kind of feel like Mitts will be some sort of bellwether for the Sabres.  He isn't one of the Big Stars but he's close.  Will he give a hometown discount to stay with something that's building into hopefully a perennial contender or will he maximize his earnings by jumping elsewhere?  Will he grow into a veteran leader with the team or will he be eclipsed by the young talent pushing up?

It's a pivotal time for the Sabres and a pivotal time in Casey's career.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Guys, 55-60 pt players with arbitration rights arent taking $5 mill for 3-4 years.  Mitts is also very close to Dahlin and Cozens, two key pieces of KA's rebuild.  If he has another solid season, KA to going to keep him and pay him.  Remember that KA wants to keep the guys who want to be here and Mitts is part of the that group.

Don't forget that KA is paying his forwards $100K per point when they break out.  Tage signed for 7.15 after his 38g 68 pt season and Cozens signed his extension in February at 7.1 during his 31g 68 pt campaign last year.  

As I illustrated in the op, we have the money to get Casey locked up if KA is so inclined.  

Edited August 25, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

50 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Guys, 55-60 pt players with arbitration rights arent taking $5 mill for 3-4 years.  Mitts is also very close to Dahlin and Cozens, two key pieces of KA's rebuild.  If he has another solid season, KA to going to keep him and pay him.  Remember that KA wants to keep the guys who want to be here and Mitts is part of the that group.

Don't forget that KA is paying his forwards $100K per point when they break out.  Tage signed for 7.15 after his 38g 38 pt season and Cozens signed his extension in February at 7.1 during his 31g 68 pt campaign last year.  

As I illustrated in the op, we have the money to get Casey locked up if KA is so inclined.  

Yeah, if Mitts has another season that closely mirrors this past one, he is probably looking at something in the range of 6x6.

[7+6=13]

You'd essentially be setting the roster for many years with a move for Pesce and an extension.   Not that I'm against it.  To me the question would be, is he the last piece coupled with internal development, enough or what you'd want to be a cup contender?  He'd likely be the last significant piece you could add at that point. 

[PerreaultForever]

9 minutes ago, 7+6=13 said:

You'd essentially be setting the roster for many years with a move for Pesce and an extension.   Not that I'm against it.  To me the question would be, is he the last piece coupled with internal development, enough or what you'd want to be a cup contender?  He'd likely be the last significant piece you could add at that point. 

No one's ever the "last piece" as top contenders juggle rosters every year. Even cup winners. Nothing is ever absolute, but Pesce added solidifies a D balanced with youth and experience, defensive and offensive ability and is certainly going to be good enough to contend. 

But he doesn't want to be here so forget it. 

[7+6=13]

8 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

No one's ever the "last piece" as top contenders juggle rosters every year. Even cup winners. Nothing is ever absolute, but Pesce added solidifies a D balanced with youth and experience, defensive and offensive ability and is certainly going to be good enough to contend. 

But he doesn't want to be here so forget it. 

I didn't mean it in the sense of never shuffling,  but more in this is the complete roster.  The money is finally spent and here's what we're looking at trying to contend with.

[PerreaultForever]

16 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

I didn't mean it in the sense of never shuffling,  but more in this is the complete roster.  The money is finally spent and here's what we're looking at trying to contend with.

Fair enough, and I don't think anyone would argue with Pesce added to what we have makes us a better defensive unit. Good enough to win a cup? Well that might depend on how good Power becomes and how good Dahlin continues to be. 

[nfreeman]

I think it's pretty clear that Pesce wants top dollar.  If he's not willing to give Carolina a hometown discount, he's not going to do so for the Sabres.

Which begs the question:  what can he reasonably expect as a high-quality, top 3ish defensive defenseman who is turning 29 in November and whose career high is 30 pts?  Orlov's scoring #s aren't much better than Pesce's, and Orlov just got $7.75M per year, but only for 2 years.  Parayko has similar scoring #s -- he just got $6.5MM x 8 years.

So I'd guess Pesce wants at least $7MM per year x 6 years and wouldn't agree to an extension with the Sabres for much less than that in either AAV or term.

 

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I think it's pretty clear that Pesce wants top dollar.  If he's not willing to give Carolina a hometown discount, he's not going to do so for the Sabres.

Which begs the question:  what can he reasonably expect as a high-quality, top 3ish defensive defenseman who is turning 29 in November and whose career high is 30 pts?  Orlov's scoring #s aren't much better than Pesce's, and Orlov just got $7.75M per year, but only for 2 years.  Parayko has similar scoring #s -- he just got $6.5MM x 8 years.

So I'd guess Pesce wants at least $7MM per year x 6 years and wouldn't agree to an extension with the Sabres for much less than that in either AAV or term.

 

To be honest, he may be wanting to to UFA due to the salary cap movement and that will stick CAR between a rock and a hard place

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

To be honest, he may be wanting to to UFA due to the salary cap movement and that will stick CAR between a rock and a hard place

I agree -- I think unless he gets an extension offer he really likes, he's ready to take his shot in UFA.