Simple goalie analytics

[Night Train]

On 8/13/2023 at 10:46 AM, pi2000 said:

Buffalo is well known across the league as goaltender purgatory.   The team gives up too many shots and scoring chances.   For that reason established veteran goaltenders are avoiding Buffalo like the plague, it's career suicide.

 That's what I've been trying to state many times. Yet some are convinced you trade for some name Goalie to go with Levi and problem solved. 

 200 foot game. Quit floating back on D and the GAA will miraculously improve and more wins will come. It's science !  

 Whether Comrie can stay healthy or UPL can improve his game will be monitored in pre-season. I wouldn't rule out another G coming here before opening night just yet. 

[Marvin]

Who has a goalkeeper surplus currently?

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Marvin said:

Who has a goalkeeper surplus currently?

The Sabres have 4 goalies with NHL experience

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😜

[Marvin]

Just now, dudacek said:

The Sabres have 4 goalies with NHL experience

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😜

Houser makes 5.

[GoPuckYourself]

Adams is so frsutratiing and it's so unnecessary, I like him alot but his refusal to upgrade the goalie situation is baffling to put it nicely and if he doesn't address it it could very well end his reign as Sabres GM. If you don't want to give up an actual prospect then trade a draft pick, I mean come on we're so close to becoming a solid all around team reallying on 2 borderline NHL quality goalies (UPL/Comrie) and putting all weight of goaltending on a rookies shoulders is just dumb. We can easily say he can still address this so lets calm down but it should have been addressed last season and then again already by now. Get a legit goalie and we have a chance, we still have a chance with Levi but 1 injury or growing pains and it's over. 

To think adding Johnson and Clifton will end all of our defensive pronblems is also a bit of a head scratcher, I liked both of the pickups but we still have all of the inept defensive forwards from last season minus Quinn now who I thought started to look decent defensively. When I see posters saying the goalies have better defense in front of them I'm not really so sure it's that much better to be honest unless Johnson and Clifton are 2 of the best in the game defensively? Maybe I'm missing something?

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Adams is so frsutratiing and it's so unnecessary, I like him alot but his refusal to upgrade the goalie situation is baffling

His refusal? Really?

If you think as a GM he wasn’t taking calls and making calls to try to upgrade the defense and goaltending, that’s on you bro.

It takes two GM’s to make a trade right? Whatever the other GM wanted in return for an asset that KA wanted, was too rich. Or KA’s offer was too poor for the other GM to bite. And as far as free agency… KA talking to their agents, the cap hit was too much for what KA wants to spend. I see nothing wrong with having a budget for the position of goaltender.

Of course there is a slim possibility he is just so enamored with UPL and Comrie. Analytics dept. be damned.

But to say that he flat out refused to upgrade… In my opinion is rather ignorant. But you can certainly have your opinion and I can certainly have mine.

[GoPuckYourself]

11 hours ago, Zamboni said:

His refusal? Really?

If you think as a GM he wasn’t taking calls and making calls to try to upgrade the defense and goaltending, that’s on you bro.

It takes two GM’s to make a trade right? Whatever the other GM wanted in return for an asset that KA wanted, was too rich. Or KA’s offer was too poor for the other GM to bite. And as far as free agency… KA talking to their agents, the cap hit was too much for what KA wants to spend. I see nothing wrong with having a budget for the position of goaltender.

Of course there is a slim possibility he is just so enamored with UPL and Comrie. Analytics dept. be damned.

But to say that he flat out refused to upgrade… In my opinion is rather ignorant. But you can certainly have your opinion and I can certainly have mine.

Yes refusal...

Last season I thought ok either nobody wanted to dance with us in a trade or the prices were too high and I was sort of alright with it but were going on year 2 now. Last year Adams was saying it needed upgrading now he's saying he's ok going into the season as is so you can call me ignorant if you'd like, it's just what I believe. 

[Marvin]

At what point does Adams have to overpay (in his mind) in prospects to get a legitimately solid goalkeeper?  Or will he allow the team to sink with its goalkeeping because he refuses to trade one of his prospects?

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, Marvin said:

At what point does Adams have to overpay (in his mind) in prospects to get a legitimately solid goalkeeper?  Or will he allow the team to sink with its goalkeeping because he refuses to trade one of his prospects?

The issue effectively comes down to you will 99% lose that trade. You never see goalies traded for top tier prospects.

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, Marvin said:

At what point does Adams have to overpay (in his mind) in prospects to get a legitimately solid goalkeeper?  Or will he allow the team to sink with its goalkeeping because he refuses to trade one of his prospects?

This is a good question. I think it all depends on if the goaltending is sinking the team before the deadline. I'd guess that if upl and Comrie are running with the same analytics as last year, Adams will be forced to react. 

2 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

The issue effectively comes down to you will 99% lose that trade. You never see goalies traded for top tier prospects.

It's more likely we trade a pick, 2nd or later, for goalie help in season. 

[dudacek]

The issue and lasting memory with UPL was the number of dumpster fire starts down the stretch:

• 18 saves on 25 shots in a 7-0 loss to Boston
• 6 saves in 10 shots in a 6-3 loss to the Leafs
• 33 saves in 40 shots in a 7-2 loss to Calgary
• 3 goals against in the first 12 minutes  in a 5-1 loss to Carolina

He was 3-6-2 with GAA over 4.00 and a SV% under .870 in February and March. He had just 3 quality starts in that stretch and lost 2 of them (the 2-1 back breaker to the Isles and a 3-2 SHootout loss to the Rangers a few days later.

It kinda makes you forget his big games In January December that saved the season’ 

37 saves in 40 shots to beat Boston in Boston, back-to-back .950s on the road in Colorado and Vegas And 39 and 38 save wins over Minnesota and Nashville

He was 12-4-1 with a respectable 3.09 GAA and .908 SV%

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The issue and lasting memory with UPL was the number of dumpster fire starts down the stretch:

• 18 saves on 25 shots in a 7-0 loss to Boston
• 6 saves in 10 shots in a 6-3 loss to the Leafs
• 33 saves in 40 shots in a 7-2 loss to Calgary
• 3 goals against in the first 12 minutes  in a 5-1 loss to Carolina

He was 3-6-2 with GAA over 4.00 and a SV% under .870 in February and March. He had just 3 quality starts in that stretch and lost 2 of them (the 2-1 back breaker to the Isles and a 3-2 SHootout loss to the Rangers a few days later.

It kinda makes you forget his big games In January December that saved the season’ 

37 saves in 40 shots to beat Boston in Boston, back-to-back .950s on the road in Colorado and Vegas And 39 and 38 save wins over Minnesota and Nashville

He was 12-4-1 with a respectable 3.09 GAA and .908 SV%

Great info!

 

I have to say… and maybe it’s just me. It probably is …

In my opinion, anything above a 2.90 GAA isn’t “respectable”. It’s kinda average or as it gets into the 3.3 range or higher, teetering on the verge of kinda bad.

granted, and I know a lot of things go into those numbers and why it happened etc. I’m just talking in a vacuum about just those numbers specifically. I certainly hope the goaltending duo this year is better than a 2.9 GAA.
 

again, maybe it’s just me.… Probably is.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The issue and lasting memory with UPL was the number of dumpster fire starts down the stretch:

• 18 saves on 25 shots in a 7-0 loss to Boston
• 6 saves in 10 shots in a 6-3 loss to the Leafs
• 33 saves in 40 shots in a 7-2 loss to Calgary
• 3 goals against in the first 12 minutes  in a 5-1 loss to Carolina

He was 3-6-2 with GAA over 4.00 and a SV% under .870 in February and March. He had just 3 quality starts in that stretch and lost 2 of them (the 2-1 back breaker to the Isles and a 3-2 SHootout loss to the Rangers a few days later.

It kinda makes you forget his big games In January December that saved the season’ 

37 saves in 40 shots to beat Boston in Boston, back-to-back .950s on the road in Colorado and Vegas And 39 and 38 save wins over Minnesota and Nashville

He was 12-4-1 with a respectable 3.09 GAA and .908 SV%

This sort-of tells on him though

You went and found his peak, and his peak had .908. He made big saves in the OT of that Minnesota game, he still allowed 5 goals. A lot of those big games wouldn't have been big games had the offense not played at a level we haven't seen around these parts since 2007. Had we received identical goaltending but pre-22/23 sabres offense in those big games, they would have been the same losses we saw from 2015-2021

.908 is a reasonable stat for a backup goalie's baseline. If it's what you get from his best stretch of play, you are in trouble

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

Great info!

 

I have to say… and maybe it’s just me. It probably is …

In my opinion, anything above a 2.90 GAA isn’t “respectable”. It’s kinda average or as it gets into the 3.3 range or higher, teetering on the verge of kinda bad.

granted, and I know a lot of things go into those numbers and why it happened etc. I’m just talking in a vacuum about just those numbers specifically. I certainly hope the goaltending duo this year is better than a 2.9 GAA.
 

again, maybe it’s just me.… Probably is.

NHL teams averaged 3.18 goals against per game and a .904 SV% last year.

45 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This sort-of tells on him though

You went and found his peak, and his peak had .908. He made big saves in the OT of that Minnesota game, he still allowed 5 goals. A lot of those big games wouldn't have been big games had the offense not played at a level we haven't seen around these parts since 2007. Had we received identical goaltending but pre-22/23 sabres offense in those big games, they would have been the same losses we saw from 2015-2021

.908 is a reasonable stat for a backup goalie's baseline. If it's what you get from his best stretch of play, you are in trouble

 

I'd say his peak would be the 11 games he put up more than .920, and his nadir the 10 games under .880.

My takeaway on UPL's season was not "low peak" but rather unacceptably frequent low lows.

As far as the bold goes, that might be a dated view; Only 27 of the 79 goalies who played at least 10 games were over .908. Just 9 of them were backups.

Edited August 15, 2023 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

 

[...]

On 8/15/2023 at 3:47 PM, LGR4GM said:

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/3-potential-trade-destinations-canadiens-casey-desmith/

 

I haven't been paying close attention - is the DeSmith our last hope for a goalie upgrade before the season starts?

[dudacek]

31 minutes ago, ... said:

https://thehockeywriters.com/3-potential-trade-destinations-canadiens-casey-desmith/

 

I haven't been paying close attention - is the DeSmith our last hope for a goalie upgrade before the season starts?

Virtually none of the goalies rumoured to be trade bait have moved, the Sabres could have picked up DeSmith and picks by laundering money as easily as Montreal did.

So I’d say no: he’s neither last hope, nor much hope.

[Cheektorado]

Now that UPL knows he is no longer even remotely considered to be the Buffalo Sabres starting goaltender, my hope lies that he can become a serviceable NHL relief netminder.  The pressure is off of you Ukko.  Relax and show us that we were wrong, and you can do this.

It could happen.  LOL.