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spndnchz

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Is free agency before or after the draft in the weird year?  Not that it matters a ton since 99% of drafted players don't suit up - but it changes what a team like buffalo might do with their pick.  

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8 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Which, if any, mocks do you prefer for credibility?

I've seen 2 saying Perfetti, 1-Rossi, 1- Holtz.

Pronman does a good mock for the Athletic but you should just read multiple ones and get a feel for roughly where guys go. Mocks never actually get close. 

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Seriously, Rossi seems pretty ready.  That’s true whether he ends up going 3rd, 5th, 8th or 10th.  I think Lafrenière and Rossi are the two most NHL ready guys.

Lundell might be ready but I am not a Lundell fan. 

44 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you could get a genuine second line talent who is in his mid-twenties with that pick you got to deal it. The future is now. The audience is suffocating and becoming moribund. It desperately needs oxygen right away. Another year out of the playoffs and we are going to have a Jack problem. And I wouldn't blame him. 

I would trade 8th overall for Cirelli. 

16 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Yes. If I can get that winger who will be a component in building a genuine second line I would do so. Not only do you reconstruct the second line with that addition but you push down players to play on an upgraded third line. One of the major deficiencies on this team is a lack of secondary scoring to balance out the first line. 

I have always been a person who valued high draft picks to build a franchise in all the major sports. However, because of the recent history of systemic failure this franchise needs an immediate jolt to alter this negative dynamic. Also, the exasperated and fading fanbase deserve it now, not later. And make no mistake about it the Jack exasperation meter is real. The get me out of here declaration is a looming threat. And I don't blame him! If this new regime doesn't have a sense of urgency after all that has gone on before their installation then they are out of touch before they even started. 

That's what happens when you draft the Johnson's instead of the Robertson's

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5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

I would trade 8th overall for Cirelli. 

That's what happens when you draft the Johnson's instead of the Robertson's

Unless I can get a long term deal secured with Cirelli I wouldn't deal for him. If I could I would be ecstatic. 

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11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Unless I can get a long term deal secured with Cirelli I wouldn't deal for him. If I could I would be ecstatic. 

He's an RFA I don't need to do anything until after I trade for him. 

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1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

He's an RFA I don't need to do anything until after I trade for him. 

I'm not giving up valuable assets for a player that I'm not sure I will have for the long-term. I don't want to deplete precious resources on anyone that I hope will stay longer. It's as simple as that. Next option please. 

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Just now, JohnC said:

I'm not giving up valuable assets for a player that I'm not sure I will have for the long-term. I don't want to deplete precious resources on anyone that I hope will stay longer. It's as simple as that. Next option please. 

You would have him for at least 4 more years and that's if he somehow forces you to allow him to hit UFA exactly when he can. I just don't see that happening so a contract isn't a priority until he is acquired. 

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20 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Unless I can get a long term deal secured with Cirelli I wouldn't deal for him. If I could I would be ecstatic. 

Cirelli would be a Sabre for at least four years is we traded for him now.

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2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You would have him for at least 4 more years and that's if he somehow forces you to allow him to hit UFA exactly when he can. I just don't see that happening so a contract isn't a priority until he is acquired. 

Before a trade I would want to talk to him and his agent about his wanting to come to Buffalo and what would be the parameters of a potential deal. If it is apparent that he isn't enamored with signing with Buffalo I would not agree to a deal. If I knew that he was amenable to a deal I would certainly trade our first pick for him.  

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Just now, JohnC said:

Before a trade I would want to talk to him and his agent about his wanting to come to Buffalo and what would be the parameters of a potential deal. If it is apparent that he isn't enamored with signing with Buffalo I would not agree to a deal. If I knew that he was amenable to a deal I would certainly trade our first pick for him.  

And again I don't understand why. You have 4 years to convince he wants to stay here which is the closest he will ever get to playing near his home town. That is if you sign him to a 4 year deal or two 2 year deals. You control him for at least 4 years. Make the trade and worry about the rest later. 

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Apparently after the first few guys there isn't really much difference between someone at 5 or someone at 20 this year...might be worth trading down if possible...

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1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

Apparently after the first few guys there isn't really much difference between someone at 5 or someone at 20 this year...might be worth trading down if possible...

I don't think that's true at all. I think there's a break at 9 or 10. 

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Not to be a jerk.. but I will be.. don't we usually have a mod post some "automated message" by now indicated that descriptive thread titles are important?

I wandered in here wondering why we'd want to talk about Doug Bodger.

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1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Yes. If I can get that winger who will be a component in building a genuine second line I would do so. Not only do you reconstruct the second line with that addition but you push down players to play on an upgraded third line. One of the major deficiencies on this team is a lack of secondary scoring to balance out the first line. 

I have always been a person who valued high draft picks to build a franchise in all the major sports. However, because of the recent history of systemic failure this franchise needs an immediate jolt to alter this negative dynamic. Also, the exasperated and fading fanbase deserve it now, not later. And make no mistake about it the Jack exasperation meter is real. The get me out of here declaration is a looming threat. And I don't blame him! If this new regime doesn't have a sense of urgency after all that has gone on before their installation then they are out of touch before they even started. 

I think you get that 2nd line winger for A LOT less in a trade.

Edited by Curt

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5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Apparently after the first few guys there isn't really much difference between someone at 5 or someone at 20 this year...might be worth trading down if possible...

Not true.  There is a difference.

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4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think that's true at all. I think there's a break at 9 or 10. 

 

I was just going by what I have heard a few times from guest analysts on WGR...other than Lafreniere I don't really know a whole lot about this year's crop of talent.

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5 could be Rossi/Perfetti and 20 could be... ummm Hendrix Lapierre. 

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5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Apparently after the first few guys there isn't really much difference between someone at 5 or someone at 20 this year...might be worth trading down if possible...

You might get lucky with a Jarvis at 15 or so, but I'd need a big add to drop out of eight. There's a definite drop off right around where we pick.

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32 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not giving up valuable assets for a player that I'm not sure I will have for the long-term. I don't want to deplete precious resources on anyone that I hope will stay longer. It's as simple as that. Next option please. 

Whoa whoa whoa!  So you would trade #8 for a 2nd line winger in his mid 20’s signed for a few (2-4) more years, who then is a UFA, but not for Cirelli who is under team control for 4 more years as an RFA and is the perfect 2C for this team?  I don’t understand your reasoning.

Edited by Curt

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9 minutes ago, Curt said:

Not true.  There is a difference.

Maybe...but I mean how accurate are scouts in top 20 picks?  Maybe top 3 or 4 they are very accurate...maybe more so than any other sport, but I mean you have Pastrnak taken 25th, Larkin taken 15th, Point taken 79th, Aho taken 35th, Barzal taken 15th, Connor taken 17th, Konecny taken 24th, Boeser taken 23rd, Debrincat taken 39th, Robert Thomas taken 20th...

These are all good to very good players, some near stars that have way outperformed many of the players taken before them in the same draft...my question is why do the Sabres never seem to be able to find any of these players(other than the flyer they took on Olaffsson)?

Edited by matter2003
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2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Maybe...but I mean how accurate are scouts in top 20 picks?  Maybe top 3 or 4 they are very accurate...maybe more so than any other sport, but I mean you have Pastrnak taken 25th, Larkin taken 15th, Point taken 79th, Aho taken 35th, Barzal taken 15th, Connor taken 17th, Konecny taken 24th, Boeser taken 23rd, Debrincat taken 39th, Robert Thomas taken 20th...

These are all good to very good players, some near stars that have way outperformed many of the players taken before them in the same draft...my question is why do the Sabres never seem to be able to find any of these players(other than the flyer they took on Olaffsson)?

Because the Sabres ignore the most fundamental rule of drafting, follow the production. 

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7 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Maybe...but I mean how accurate are scouts in top 20 picks?  Maybe top 3 or 4 they are very accurate...maybe more so than any other sport, but I mean you have Pastrnak taken 25th, Larkin taken 15th, Point taken 79th, Aho taken 35th, Barzal taken 15th, Connor taken 17th, Konecny taken 24th, Boeser taken 23rd, Debrincat taken 39th, Robert Thomas taken 20th...

These are all good to very good players, some near stars that have way outperformed many of the players taken before them in the same draft...my question is why do the Sabres never seem to be able to find any of these players(other than the flyer they took on Olaffsson)

That wasn’t your question.  You said there wasn’t much difference between the prospects available at 5 and at 20 this year, so maybe they should trade down.  The general scouting assessment does not agree with that statement.  Scouting in the top 10 is more accurate than in the late 1st.

What you are now proposing is basically that there are good players drafted in the late 1st thru 3rd every year, so why not just trade down and take those guys every year?

Why hasn’t Buffalo been able to find any of these gems in the draft?  Because they have drafted really poorly.

Want that to change?  Well, they just drastically reorganized their scouting department.  Maybe that will help.

Edited by Curt

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5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Because the Sabres ignore the most fundamental rule of drafting, follow the production. 

Pastrnak didn't really have much production so I don't think in that case there was anything to ignore...

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2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Pastrnak didn't really have much production so I don't think in that case there was anything to ignore...

No, but he did produce. That's when you start digging deeper. Pastrnak had enough production to warrant a look but he is also an exception not the rule. I find that exceptions more often than not have 3 things that could be impacting them. 1 injuries, they get injured in their draft year but play through some part of it. 2 team, they are on an awful team and aren't elite enough to drag the carcass forward. 3 foreign league, a lot of the guys in none NA leagues have 2 issues ice time and how will their game translate to the NHL. 

These are the 3 things that I worry about most. That said, if we look at 2014 and just production... Point is above a lot of players. Virtanaen, Cornel, Tuch, Lemieux. 

Unfortunately the site I use does not go back to 2014 for primary points from Pastnak's league so I can't see where he falls. 

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You start with the production and go from there. It is more about finding irregularities and digging deeper. That doesn't mean draft off of production alone but you should be looking into that. It is how I land on a Kaliyev or a Robertson while the Sabres land on Johnson (you adjust between forwards and defenders). You notice the production trends, dig deeper, understand how that player produces and go from there. It is why Seth Jarvis sits so high for me. His production is 6th in the entire 2020 class in primary even strength points (so excluded 2nd assists). Now you dig deeper... Jarvis can skate, has a good motor, drives the line he is on, was tops on his team in points (teams matter always) and he has no discernible flaw other than possibly being short. Hence why he slides up my board. 

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It's how you find a Tyler Tullio as well. People are talking about drafting Jack Quinn ahead of Seth Jarvis. I can not do that and get Tullio who produced almost the exact same at even as Quinn and has no flaws other than size. Again though once you find a guy like this you do more work, who did they play with, where did they play, how's their skating, what's their motor like, are they going to put in the work to get better. All that comes into play as well. 

Arthur Kaliyev was the 7th best player in terms of primary points last year. He was ahead of Cozens. He slid because there were questions about his 200ft game but passing on him for the Johnson pick was insane. Cozens outproduced Dach in the WHL for primary points, that's something to consider so thanks Chicago. 

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